AJ Bell's new app aims to make investing a Dodl

Dodl, AJ Bell’s new app-based investment service, is cheap – although a wider range of investments would be welcome, says David Prosser.

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Financial calendar – what to expect in the week of 2-6 May

A selection of economic events to watch out for in the coming week, including a decision from the Federal Reserve on raising US interest rates, and German retail sales figures.

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Alex Jones: America’s top crank goes bust

Alex Jones is the world’s loudest and most prolific conspiracy theorist. Now his claims have failed to stand up in court and his Infowars website has filed for bankruptcy.

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Why new technology will pump up inflation

New technology will make it easier to sneak through price rises without anyone really noticing, says Matthew Lynn.

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Events to Look Out for Next Week

The focus remains on inflation and the much anticipated response from the FOMC, RBA and  BOE next week, while the markets price in action from the ECB down the road. The advent of month-end, a holiday in Japan on Friday, with the UK also shut on Monday accelerated some profit taking on Wall Street after the early rally. It looks as though many are sidelined into the weekend and ahead of the FOMC where there is a lot of uncertainty over the aggressiveness of the Fed’s normalization path, or BOE ‘s ambiguity. Hiking rates too much too quickly would only increase the risk of a stagflation scenario and the BoE’s current policy is already much closer to neutral than the ECB’s. The week also sees NFP, and employment data from Canada, Europe and New Zealand.

Monday – 02 May  2022

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• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Retail Sales for March are expected to steady at 0.3% m/m.
• Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:55 – 08:00) – The German & Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April are seen unchanged at 54.1 and 55.3 repsectively.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 57.5 from 57.1 in March, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March ’21, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of ’20, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Tuesday – 03 May 2022

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• Interest Rate Decision & Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – This week, Australia’s inflation surge puts pressure on RBA. Australia CPI lifted 2.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year, while the annual rate jumped to 5.1% y/y – the highest level since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in the early 2000s. As elsewhere the surge owes much to sharply higher fuel prices, which were up 11% versus the last quarter of 2021. Still, the higher than expected numbers will put pressure on the RBA to step in and hike rates, with the chances of a move in May rising. The numbers reflect to a large extend temporary factors and supply chain disruptions, but with labour markets tightening and the risk of second round effects mounting, the RBA might decide to step in before wage growth starts to get out of control, especially as underlying inflation was also substantially stronger than expected.
• Employment Change (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German employment change is expected to show a contraction to -15K for April.
• Employment Rate (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The New Zealand employment change is expected to show a slowdown in the Q1 with unemployment at 3.2%, and participaion rate and labour cost index remain unchanged at 71.1% and 0.7% in Q1.

Wednesday – 04 May 2022

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• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian Retail Sales s.a. for March are expected to decline to 0.5% from 1.8% m/m.
• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Eurozone Retail Sales for March are expected to decline to 0.2% from 0.3% m/m and headline to dip to 1% from 5% y/y.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to climb to 370K(a 85k decline on last month’s reading).
• Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) – The acceleration in price pressures alongside a strong labor market have significantly increased the risk of even more aggressive action by the FOMC than previously projected, with the markets now pricing in four consecutive 50 bp hikes beginning in May, with some chance for a 75 bp boost down the road.

Thursday – 05 May 2022

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• Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The trade surplus for Australia is expected to lower in March to 8.5bln from 7.45 bln in February.
• Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE head Bailey already flagged at the last meeting that there is a real risk that the jump in living expenses will hit demand. He followed up last week by stressing that the bank is walking a very tight line between escalating price pressure and the output effects of the real income shock, with the risk that this could create a recession. Bailey flagged concern over what is happening in food prices and said the inflation target is facing the most severe test since the independence of the bank in 1997. The comments highlight that the outcome of the May meeting is not cast in stone yet and that even after the last statement flagged the likely need for additional rate hikes, the central bank could still have a change of heart. Indeed, much of the jump in prices is out of the control of the central bank, as energy price inflation is driven by global pressures and the fallout from the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia. Hiking rates too much too quickly would only increase the risk of a stagflation scenario and the BoE’s current policy is already much closer to neutral than the ECB’s.

Friday – 06 May 2022

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• Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – An 380k April nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 431k in March, 750k in February, and 504k in January. Payroll growth should slow gradually through 2022 with reduced growth in the economy. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, the same as in March, while the y/y wage gain should dip to 5.5% from 5.6%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s unemployment is anticipated higher in April to 5.4% from 5.3%, with participation rate unchanged at 65.4%.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichdii

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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US Open – PCE Price Index remains elevated but are there signs of softness?

The Core PCE Price Index, the FOMC’s favourite measure of inflation, missed by a tick at 5.2% vs 5.3% (y/y). The headline posted a steep 0.9% gain versus 0.5% (m/m) previously. This could confirm the softening seen in the CPI, and add to the “peak inflation” argument? However, the Employment Cost Index beat big time at 1.4% vs 1.1% in Q1. Over to you Mr Powell…

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Market Spotlight: NZDUSD Hits Final Target

NZDUSD Sell-Off ContinuesThe recent short trade issued in NZDUSD has hit its final target at .6450. With USD having increased significantly in the last fortnight, amidst an uptick in hawkish Fed signalling, NZD and the broader risk complex has struggled to maintain demand. Indeed, Fed tightening is coming amidst a broader backdrop of risk off flows linked to ongoing uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the violence ongoing, and with risks of further escalation, there are continued downside risks for the risk complex, including high-beta currencies such as NZD. With this in mind, bears can look to hold shorts while the pair holds below the former 2022 lows of .6450.Keep an Eye OnLooking ahead, the key focus will be on the FOMC next week. With the Fed widely expected to lift rates by .5%, failure to do so would likely fuel a sharp correction in USD. However, should the Fed follow through and stick to hawkish guidance also (signalling further .5% hike to come), USD is likely to continue higher near term. Today, focus will be on US core PCE, which is a key inflation gauge used by the Fed. Following yesterday’s GDP miss, any undershoot today will likely weigh on USD into the Fed next week, while a beat should see renewed USD buying into the weekend.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-nzdusd-hits-final-target"
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FOMO Friday: Record Losses in JPY

JPY Sees Heavy SellingAnother week comes to a close in financial markets, as we round the first third of the year. Once again, it’s been a very interesting week with plenty of big moves to note. In the FX space specifically, it seems that the main theme capturing attention this week has been the continued decline in the Japanese Yen. We’ve seen steep moves across the board but it’s the almost 4% rally off the weekly lows in USDJPY which seems to be the main pair dominating end of week chats. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If not? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?BOJ Reaffirms Easing StanceThe main driver behind the further decline in the Japanese Yen this week was the April Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. The BOJ took the opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to staunchly maintaining an easing presence in the market. The bank noted that it will continue with its strategy of daily purchases of Japanese government bonds in a bid to keep bond yields at or near zero.Central Bank Monetary Policy DivergenceWith most of the rest of the G10 central banks having already embarked on a path of policy normalisation, or signalled their intent to, this latest message from the BOJ has created clear monetary policy divergence. The BOJ warned that the domestic economy is currently too fragile to withstand any such tightening from the BOJ.Increased Fed HawkishnessAt the same time that the BOJ is reaffirming its commitment to easing, Fed expectations are turning ever more hawkish. The market is now widely pricing in a .5% hike next week from the Fed, in line with a raft of hawkish commentary from Fed members and the very hawkish details revealed in the March FOMC minutes. The minutes revealed that the Fed discussed hiking by .5% in March but opted to wait. However, over half of the Fed’s members are now in favour of using larger .5% hikes, with May likely to mark the first of a series of larger hikes.Technical ViewsUSDJPYFor now, USDJPY continues to move higher within a steep, narrow channel. Price has recently broken through the 125.65 and 128.50 levels and, while above the latter level, the focus remains on a continuation towards the 134.39 level next. However, worth noting that we are seeing bearish divergence in momentum studies, so be aware of reversal risks near term.

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House prices are soaring – here are the best housebuilders to buy to profit

Demand for housing in the UK continues to outstrip supply – that’s good for the nation’s housebuilders. Rupert Hargreaves picks the best buys in the sector.

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Investment Bank Outlook 29-04-2022

CIBCFX FlowsUS$ kicked off the final trading day of April softer, we believe it is just pure profit taking into the long weekend.Its magic. No Japanese rhetoric yet the $YEN weakened for no apparent reason. Started the session at 130.95, the pair slowly declined to 130.365. Call it position adjustment ahead of weekend or month-end clean up. Market participants would still want to buy the dips and likely scatter bids from 130.50 towards 130.00. The biggest question now, one FX reporter wrote that this leaves the authorities to engage in in a degree of damage control via stronger verbal intervention on the weak YEN. A reminder that of illiquid Monday could be their chance to make this happen.AU$, NZ$ GBP$ and EUR$ have strengthened – one AFR article said Treasurer Frydenberg reminded RBA of its plan to wait for wages data due later next month before increasing interest rates. The newspaper said Frydenberg gave the central bank a gentle nudge, which colleagues interpreted as asking the bank to either wait until it meets in June, or to tread lightly if it moves on Tuesday next week. Of course Frydenberg denied. Short-term resistance at 0.7150 which is the 23.6% and then 0.7209 the 38.2% retracement.EUR$ climbed back onto 1.05-handle, not a lot to mention. It is month-end, our macro strategist Jeremy Stretch wrote we remain mindful of leveraged players having already materially extended EUR shorts. While investors remain mindful of broad Euro area macro challenges, political risk has obviously eased since the French Presidential election result. As such, we view significant Eurozone macro negativity as already largely priced in. Very little option strikes on the downside, upside maturity today 1.0565 for €1.96bn, 1.0600 for €840mio, 1.0650 for €700mio and 1.0700 for €2.95bn.Market is expecting s strong Canadian February GDP out tonight. Up 0.7% from 0.2% for the month and up 4.1% from 3.5% for the year. February GDP looks to have been rock solid, part of a Q1 pace that has generally surprised to the upside relative to what was expected when the year began. CAD has outperformed its peers in the G10 space this year. Think we will see position adjustments, sellers lined up above 1.2820, option strike at 1.2850 due today for $740mio.CitiEuropean OpenUSD rally finally runs out of steam as a mix of month-end selling flows and profit-taking emerge, ahead of a cluster of holidays across the Asia region next week. Despite month-end, activity is below average with Japan on holiday, which saw Treasuries closed overnight. AUD, NOK both staged a strong bounce despite a lack of meaningful flow and platform activity showing no strong biases. CNH saw wild swings in thin liquidity, initially sliding given lack of appetite to sit short USD ahead of the long weekend, before swinging to gains as China tech stocks surged on comments out of Politburo meeting and US regulatory progress.Choppiness continues on month-end flow dynamics. We wait for rate decisions in RUB and COP, CPI data for PLN, and employment cost indicator for USD. CHF will not move on SNB speeches. We watch for growth figures in EUR, CAD, CZK, and MXN while JPY may take a breather given the local holiday.USD and Fed officials, while still on blackout ahead of the May FOMC, focus on Q1 Employment Cost Indicator (ECI) data, alongside PCE core deflator figures for March, Friday at 13:30 BST. Citi Economics expects another strong increase in ECI to 1.2%QoQ in Q1, with upside risks from a potentially greater increase in employer provided benefits at the start of the year. Core PCE inflation is likely to rise 0.3%MoM and moderate slightly from 5.4%YoY in February to 5.3%YoY in March, based on already-known elements of CPI and PPI.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-29-04-2022"
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Market Update – April 29

Risk appetite surged as optimism over earnings more than overshadowed concerns over the 8% pop in the y/y GDP price gauge and the -1.4% print on Q1 GDP. The contraction in growth was seen as a one-off, however, due to trade disruptions limiting supply alongside a surge in demand following the pandemic, with inventory drawdowns contributing negatively too. Stock markets remained supported overnight, with hopes of support measures in China helping to underpin sentiment, after China vowed to underpin the health of so-called platform firms.  Meanwhile, the pick-up in core PCE inflation to a 5.2% y/y pace from 5.0% y/y was also seen on the light side and hence supported notions that prices may be topping out.

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are down -2.5 bp at 0.87% in early trade, with Eurozone bonds paring some of yesterday’s losses and yields coming down as the unexpected stagnation in French GDP at the start of the year highlighted that there are still reasons for the ECB to remain cautious even as inflation is going through the roof. German import price inflation jumped to 31.2% y/y in March, from 26.3% y/y in the previous month.

• Yields are coming down from yesterday’s. The 2-year yield rose over 5 bps to test 2.68% and the 10-year challenged 2.90% before drifting back to 2.63% and 2.85%, respectively.
• Stocks – GER40 and UK100 futures are up around 1.0%, USA100 soared 3.06% on the day, with the USA500 2.47% higher, while the USA30 climbed 1.85%, but all off of late peaks.  Japan is closed for a holiday, the ASX up 1.1% at the close.
• Earnings – Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth; Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue; Apple Inc , the world’s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.
• USDIndex lost some of its recent gains, currently at 103.15.
• Oil at $106.42. Oil prices meanwhile moved higher as overall confidence improved and fears over China’s Covid measures eased somewhat.
• Gold back above $1900.
• FX markets – EUR and Sterling also found some buyers, but while EURUSD and Cable are up from yesterday’s lows, they are still looking pretty weak at currently 1.0548 and 1.2530 respectively.  USDJPY still held above the 130.

Today – German and Eurozone GDP are still to come and Eurozone inflation data are also due. While in US session eyes are on PCE and Canadian GDP. Exxon and Chevron earnings on tap.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGEUR (+1.27%) breached 22.20. MAs pointing higher, MACD signal line & histogram turned positive , RSI at 62, all signalling further boost in the near term. H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.509.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Daily Market Outlook, April 29, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, April 29, 2022 Overnight Headlines China And U.S. Negotiate On-Site Audit Checks As Delistings Loom RBA To Raise Rates To 0.25% On Tuesday, To End Year At 1.50% - RTRS Poll More UK Companies See Price Increases Even As Economy Slows Dollar Towers At Two-Decade High On Growth Woes, Fed Outlook Goldman Sees Yen Falling Further With Or Without Intervention Australian Bonds Attract As RBA Hike Bets Overdone, JBWere Says Oil Heads For Longest Run Of Monthly Gains Since 2018 Diesel Squeeze Intensifies As Traders Scramble To Exit Shorts Asia Shares Brace For Worst Month In 2 Yrs On Growth Fears Apple Shares Dip After Company Warns Of A Possible $8 Billion Hit Amazon Results And Outlook Fall Short As Warehouse, Fuel Costs Soar Intel Forecasts Gloomy Quarter On Supply-Chain Woes, Shares Fall Musk Sold Billions Of Dollars In Tesla Stock After Agreeing To Buy TwitterThe Day Ahead Eurozone inflation likely edged higher this month, according to economists, who predict that the economy in the currency area grew again in the first quarter. Headline consumer price growth this month is expected to tick up to an annual rate of 7.5% from the all-time high of 7.4% in March. The core rate is also poised to set another record of 3.1% following last month’s historic peak of 2.9% Quarterly GDP growth in the three months to March is forecast at 0.3%, the same rate reported for the previous period, with the annual rate expected to rise to 5.1% from 4.6%. Much higher quarter growth was expected in the final three months of 2021, but the German economy contracted 0.7% in the timeframe. The Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy is weighing so heavily on the yen that intervening in the market to buy the currency would have little impact, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman. “We find it hard to see intervention driving a sustained appreciation,” she wrote in a note, adding that rising U.S. yields should keep pushing the yen lower. Still, Fishman sees a “high risk” of the Finance Ministry instructing the BOJ to go into the market to buy the yen if the depreciation continues. Wild swings have been a hallmark of the U.S. stock market all year. It’s only gotten worse during the latest earnings period. Stocks rallied as much as 3% Thursday on the back of strong results from technology heavyweights. Meta Platforms Inc. surged 18%, while PayPal Holdings Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. each jumped more than 10% just two days after gloomy outlooks led to the biggest market selloff in seven weeks. In late trading Amazon.com Inc. plunged 10% and Intel Corp. lost 5% after disappointing forecasts. The outsize swings continued a stretch that’s seen the average S&P 500 stock move 4.2% in either direction after reporting earnings this quarter, the most since the last period of 2011, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That compares with an average price change of 3.4% in the prior 65 quarters. USD and Fed officials, while still on blackout ahead of the May FOMC, focus on Q1 Employment Cost Indicator (ECI) data, alongside PCE core deflator figures for March, Friday at 13:30 BST. Citi Economics expects another strong increase in ECI to 1.2%QoQ in Q1, with upside risks from a potentially greater increase in employer provided benefits at the start of the year. Core PCE inflation is likely to rise 0.3%MoM and moderate slightly from 5.4%YoY in February to 5.3%YoY in March, based on already-known elements of CPI and PPI. CitiFX Quant team’s asset rebalancing model points to a rotation out of bonds and into equities, particularly US equities, with these expectations potentially contributing to Thursday’s squeeze higher in S&P (+2.96%). Month end falls trading session may see keep price action choppier than usual, particularly as we head into the FOMC and other top tier events next week.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400 (456M), 1.0450 (297M) 1.0565-75 (2.2BLN), 1.0600 (838M), 1.0650 (688M) 1.0700 (2.94BLN). USD/JPY: 128.40 (230M) EUR/GBP: 0.8475 (751M) AUD/USD 0.7100-10 (385M), 0.7200 (453M), 0.7250 (486M) USD/CAD: 1.2695-00 (649M), 1.2850 (740M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0950 Bullish above Firmer into month end rebalancing and EZ data dump +0.1%, in a 1.0492-1.0530 range, as the USD eased in a low key session Apple, Amazon and Intel delivered cautious outlooks - may hit risk in NY Big moves in April suggests potential volatility on month end rebalancing Raft of European GDP and inflation data will gauge EZ economic health Charts; 5, 10 & 21 daily, weekly and monthly moving averages fall 21 day Bollinger bands and daily momentum studies head lower Bearish setup targets the long term 1.0340 low in January 2017 Close above 1.0799 21 day moving average needed to undermine downsideGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.30 Bullish above. Touch firmer into a likely volatile month end +0.1% in a 1.2455-1.2496 range with only moderate month end flow Sterling and EUR/GBP often volatile on month end rebalancing after big moves Almost 60% of UK companies plan to raise prices in 2022 BoE to walk a fine line between inflation and recession May 5 Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages head lower 21 day Bollinger bands expand - strong bearish trending setup Targets a test of the 1.2360 low in July 2020 then 1.2252 June 2020 base Close above 1.2774 10 day moving average would undermine downside biasUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 125 Bearish below Drops briefly on position adjustments; downside limited USD/JPY down 0.1% in Asia, mild profit-taking dip ahead of w/e pounced on Friday range of 130.95-130.36; liquidity constrained due to Japan holiday Buyers emerge ahead of 130.00, previous psychological resistance now support BOJ commitment to ultra-easy policy will continue to undermine JPY BOJ policy in contrast to Fed which is racing to raise rates Choppy week ahead, traders brace for Fed with Japan closed Tuesday-Thursday Break above 130.57, 76.4% Fibo of 1998-2011 USD decline technically bullish Immediate resistance at 131.25 Thursday high; support 130.35-40, 130.00-10AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7300 Bearish below Posts minor gains as focus shifts to a RBA rate hike AUD/USD rallies 0.4% in Asia after suffering a bruising 2.6% weekly fall Has held up relatively well despite rampant USD strength; RBA awaited Tue RBA hike of 0.15% priced in; will be 1st rate rise in Australia in a decade Global growth slowdown, prospects of aggressive Fed rate hikes limit rallies Weak CNY on China growth concerns amid COVID-19 lockdowns dent AUD sentiment Range of 0.7090-0.7138 Friday; resistance 0.7145-50, 0.7165-70 Support 0.7085-90, 0.7050-55; loss of latter opens test of 0.7000-05

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-april-29-2022"
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Share tips of the week – 29 April

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

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Mohamed El-Erian: inflation, disinflation and the mistakes of central bankers

Merryn talks to economist Mohamed El-Erian about the state of the global economy, how the Fed became hostage to the marketplace, and how you should position your investments in distorted markets.

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