Too Difficult to Resist to buy the dip as S&P 500 Tumbles to Crucial 4000 Points Support Level

Some stabilization in risk demand after yesterday's sell-off is helping currencies correlated with economic growth expectations (high-beta currencies) to regain some of what they lost yesterday. Against this backdrop, the dollar's rally is being thwarted, but any correction lower could be met with strong support as the Fed has taken a major lead in the tightening race, stagflation concerns have not gone away, and risk asset sentiment remains highly volatile. SPX also played its role when reaching a critical support of 4000 points, which can be perceived by the broader market as a technical buy signal.Futures for US stock indices are in moderate plus, not exceeding 1%. The catalyst for yesterday's sell-off was broad market panic as central banks signaled their intention to hike interest rates at a time of deteriorating global economic growth prospects. These include stagflation in Europe, risks of a recession in the fourth quarter, continuing devaluation of the yuan as a sign of predicaments in the Chinese economy, as well as high degree of geopolitical risk related to the conflict in Ukraine. It is no surprise that the dollar is holding its positions and is not in a hurry to move into a correction despite the relative overbought (highest level in 20 years). Currencies that correlate with the business cycle were hit more than others, which also indicates the nature of the correction - investors are reducing their exposure in countries that show outstripping growth rate in the business cycle upswing phase. So, for example, since the onset of broader economy growth concerns, AUD, NZD lost 3-4% against the dollar while EUR and GBP losses did not exceed 1-2%:The slowdown in China affects the economies of New Zealand and Australia, for which the Middle Kingdom is one of the main trading partners while global liquidity concerns primarily affected the Norwegian Krone. Since May 5, the USDNOK currency has risen by almost 5%.The Fed said yesterday that liquidity in key markets is falling, which could result in investor flight. The warning exacerbated the fall.The economic calendar today is not particularly interesting, investors could pay attention to the NFIB report on small businesses in the US, in particular, how firms assess the situation with hiring. Also speaking today are a number of Fed officials, the focus is how intensified market correction will affect their forecasts for policy tightening and whether fears of stagflation in the US will be voiced.Demand for risk will continue to determine currency moves in the short term. Given the potential for SPX to rebound, there may be some demand for commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD), the dollar may go slightly negative. However, as mentioned above, a steady decline in the dollar at this stage is unlikely and long positions on the correction towards 103.50 on the dollar index (DXY) look quite justified.EURUSD, in turn, may correct higher, however, given the discussion of the oil embargo from Russia, the potential for strengthening above 1.0650 in the next few days looks unlikely. Bullish momentum for the pair can be set by ECB officials such as Joachim Nagel and De Guindos, whose rhetoric will likely be associated with the prospect of a rate hike in July. However, the number of ECB rate hikes this year remains a subject of debate, and it is to these comments that the Euro may be particularly sensitive.Technically, the pair continues to stay in the range from 1.048-1.060 in anticipation of new important information. Such information will probably be the announcement of an embargo on Russian oil, since in this case the EU will likely face a new round of inflation, which, as the behavior of the pair in March-April has already shown, has a very negative effect on the Euro:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/too-difficult-to-resist-to-buy-the-dip-as-s-and-p-500-tumbles-to-crucial-4000-points-support-level"
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The return of the currency wars

The post-2008 currency wars were all about the race to the bottom. The post-Covid world is very different, says John Stepek.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/currencies/604813/the-return-of-the-currency-wars
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Daily Market Outlook, May 10, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 10, 2022 Overnight Headlines Shanghai Covid Cases Fall Amid Signs Of Tighter Pandemic Curbs Japan Household Spending Beats Expectations, But Inflation Risks Loom Australia Business Sentiment Holds Up Amid Acute Cost Pressures Fed Warns Of Worsening Market Liquidity In Their Stability Report Fed’s Kashkari: May Have To Carry Bulk Of Burden In Hitting Infl. Goal Senate Democrats Plan Tuesday Vote To Confirm Cook For Fed Biden Is To Speak Tuesday, Regarding Inflation At 1130 ET, 1530 GMT House And Senate Democrats Are Pushing A Nearly $40 Billion Ukraine Aid Biden Team Sees ‘Pivot’ To China Accelerated As Putin Falters In Ukraine UK's Truss Set To Ditch N.Ireland Protocol After Giving Up On EU Talks UK’s Rising Cost Of Living Puts Brakes On Consumer Spending Japan Maintains Warning On Weak Yen, Vows G7 Contact On Any Action Commodity Currencies Hit By Tumbling Oil Prices, BTC Near 10-Mth Low Oil Tumbles On Global Economic Worries And A Strong US Dollar EU Drops Plans To Ban Shipping Russian Crude In Face Of Opposition Germany Prepares Crisis Plan For Abrupt End To Russian Gas China Tech Stocks Tumble On Renewed Growth Fears, Global Rout Tesla Halts Production At Shanghai Plant Due To Supply IssuesThe Day Ahead Asian equity market performance is mixed overnight. That follows another day of big losses in European and US markets as concerns about economic growth and inflation remain to the fore. In its semi-annual Financial Stability Report the US Federal Reserve warned about deteriorating liquidity conditions across markets. Meanwhile, oil prices fell to their lowest in two weeks on concerns about the demand outlook. In its quarterly monetary policy report China’s central bank promised to be proactive in addressing mounting economic pressures and boosting market confidence. Today’s data is light with nothing of note in the UK. In the Eurozone the German ZEW survey will provide some of the first insights into May economic conditions in the single currency area. As a survey of financial analysts, it might be considered less reliable than surveys of businesses. However, it is timely as other gauges such as the first readings of the PMI surveys will not be available for another couple of weeks. The prints for both March and April showed sharps falls in the updates for both current conditions and expectations. Last month the current conditions measure was at its lowest since May 2021, while expectations slipped to their lowest since the start of the first lockdown in March 2020. That probably reflects the region’s and in particular Germany’s close economic links to both Russia and the Ukraine. Further falls in both measures are forecast for May. The April update for the US NFIB small business sentiment measure is expected to show a fourth consecutive monthly fall. Already released readings for some of the subcomponents showed unfilled job openings unchanged at an elevated level. Meanwhile, the percentage of firms who have recently increased or expect to raise wages fell modestly but only to a still historically high level. A number of US Federal Reserve policymakers are set to speak today. Their comments will be watched for any further colour on last week’s monetary policy announcement by the US central bank. That saw interest rates raised by 0.50%, while Fed Chair Powell said that similar sized rises were on the table for both June and July. Things to look for today include any indications on what might stop the Fed from going ahead with those rises and signs that some officials might favour a larger rise of 0.75% at least one meeting. April CPI data for China due early Wednesday are expected to show a modest acceleration in annual inflation. Nevertheless, inflation remains much lower than elsewhere and seems unlikely to stand in the way of the authorities continuing to prioritise loose monetary policy.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut USD/CAD: 1.2900-10 (480M), 1.2935 (3.34BN) EUR/USD: 1.0500 (335M), 1.0540-50 (467M), 1.0570-75 (500M), 1.0600 (454M), 1.0625 (519M), 1.0665-75 (715M) USD/JPY: 129.00 (262M), 129.80-83 (330M) AUD/USD: 0.7050 (429M), 0.7200 (506M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0950 Bullish above Edges higher as USD gives back early gains EUR/USD opened 1.0558 after once again finding buyers below 1.0500 Asia started risk-off and USD firmed against the risk currencies... EUR/USD edged down to 1.0553, as EUR/AUD buying underpinned Risk assets recovered ground late morning and USD gave back gains EUR/USD rallied to 1.0580 before settling around 1.0570/75 EUR/USD resilient as EUR gaining on the crosses due to short-covering EUR/USD downward momentum in a stall as 5-day MA crosses above 10-day MA Resistance is at the May 5 high at 1.0642 and 21-day MA at 1.0678 Support has formed between 1.0465/95 where bids are tipped A break below 1.0460 needed to reignite trend lower German ZEW later today in the key event risk in EuropeGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.30 Bullish above. GBP/USD pivots 1.2350 as calm follows Monday's storm Cable has traded a 45 pip range thus far Tuesday; 1.2320-1.2375 Those parameters are well within Monday's 1.2262-1.2405 range 1.2262 was lowest level since June 2020. 1.2405 = high since May 5 (BoE day) Risk-sensitive pound supported by modest equity revival UK PM Johnson looks to Queen's speech to win back voters Truss set to ditch NI protocol after giving up on EU talks-TimesUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 125 Bearish below USD/JPY unfazed by barrage of verbal intervention Plenty of verbal intervention from Japanese officials on USD/JPY rise FinMin Suzuki again emphasized importance of FX stability Rapid FX moves undesirable, eyeing impact of FX on real economy No comment on FX levels per se, won't comment on 'tolerable' lvl limit In close contact with US, other countries on FX Suzuki also notes confidence in BoJ to steer monetary policy appropriately Separately, BoJ Uchida also notes sharp JPY moves undesirable Adds BoJ has no plan to tweak 50-bps JGB 10s band, cap still at 0.25% USD/JPY 130.57 to 129.80 EBS early before bouncing to 130.46 with US yieldsAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7300 Bearish below Recovers from early spill as Asian markets settle AUD/USD opened -1.74% at 0.6951 after heavy falls in equities and commodities Asia opened on a sour note with AXJ index falling 2.0% and Dalian iron ore falling over 6.0% AUD/USD fell to 0.6911 before bids ahead of 0.6900 gave some support Asian markets recovered some ground and AUD/USD reversed higher Heading into the afternoon it is trading around 0.6970 as shorts pare back AUD/USD likely to remain heavy while risk assets remain under pressure... Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.7080 and break would ease the pressure There isn't any strong support until the 50% of pandemic low/high at 0.6758

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GBP reacting to the BOE’s decision

After the interest rate decision by the BOE on May 6 to hike interest rates 25 bps from 0.75% to 1.00%, the pound sterling has been seen to have strong reactions.

 

Source: https://mx.investing.com/central-banks/

GBPUSD

Cable has been in a constant downward trend since last year, however, due to recent world events the price has accelerated its fall in the past 3 weeks and now even more with the decision of the BOE, giving sharp falls of up to almost 300 pips in some days, falling from 1.30000 to a new low at 1.22600 yesterday, a drop of approx. 740 pips in a few weeks.

It is currently below the Fib 61.8% level of the cycle that began in March 2020, which was at 1.24931 that was broken 3 days ago. In the last 2 days the price marked a hammer and a spinning top that are locked between 1.23-1.24, which could signal a pause to the downtrend to mark a retracement before continuing it.

Resistances: Psychological level 1.24000, Fibo 61.8% and psychological level at 1.25000, SMA of 20period at 1.27000, from there to the level broken 3 weeks ago at 1.30000.

Supports: Lows at 1.23000 tested the last 2 days without breakout and 1.21000 both marked in 2020 before the psychological level of 1.20000 that joins the Fibo level 78.6% at 1.20162.

ADX at 47.18 with range, +DI8.45 neutral bias, -DI 22.52 with bearish bias. ADX very close to the limit at 60 and already showing signs of exhaustion. 

 

GBPJPY

For this pair there is an interesting panorama since on the part of the BOJ there is  management of interest rates that the bank intends to remain low, and on the part of the BOE the increases already given with the possibility of a continuation of these monetary tightenings.

GBPJPY has downward pressure due to the appearance of the pattern known as shoulder head shoulder, which had a maximum at 168,418 on April 20 and has currently broken the SMA of 21 daily periods with several touches such as PB and fall to the collarbone that is marked by an area that joins the psychological level of 160,000, the SMA of 50p 1D at 160,051 and the Fibo 50% at 159,693. If the collarbone is broken with its typical PB, the pattern would have a fall target of approx. 800 pips, almost at the beginning of the cycle that started at the beginning of March, below the SMA of 100 and 200 daily periods, in addition to the strong level that took 3 previous highs to break the Fibo 61.8% at 157,634 and Fibo 88.6% at 152,957. If there is a failure to break the collarbone, we would see the typical upward movement that would have to overcome the previous 2 highs marked by the right shoulder and the head of the skipper to catapult to 2015 highs at 190,000.

ADX is marking 25.70 after falling from its high above 60, +DI at 11.61 bearish bias, -DI at 15.98 bearish bias. The upward trend is slowing, and a rebound at the level of 25 with a cross of -DI above the +DI would start a downtrend or in case it falls below 25 we would expect to drill upwards of this level to confirm a trend.

EURGBP

EURGBP has been in an expansion channel for more than a year with bearish bias leaving lows at 0.82000 where it recovered its bullish guideline marking a higher minimum than the previous one, which catapulted the price to break the SMA of 200 daily periods and its bearish guideline with a strong power candle of more than 100 pips 3 days ago marking a high at 0.85900 in a test of the highs of December and November 2021.  This bullish break could be the change of trend for the upside; if the previous highs are passed and the main one that would be the beginning of the atonement pattern that is at the psychological level 0.87000 and we would be looking for a target above the level 0.89000 which was a break level for the beginning of the downtrend in 2021.

ADX at 47.64 with bullish bias, +DI at 23.19 -DI at 4.74. Confirmation of uptrend since April.

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Larince Zhang 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

 

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Weekly Review: Aussie, Kiwi and Sterling

Last week was dominated by volatility as the RBA, FED and BOE gave the markets something to think about. Accelerating global price pressures following the pandemic have left central bankers with the tough tradeoffs between inflation and growth, as each dynamic has debilitating consequences for global economies, and policymakers are trying to walk a fine line between the two. The FOMC is prioritizing the inflation fight as the strength in the labor market suggests little chance of a sustained US downturn. The RBA hiked rates more than expected, the Fed took a possible 75 bps hike off the table and the BOE said not to look for too many rate hikes, while raising inflation forecasts and calling for a possible economic contraction in Q4.

Across the pond, it is becoming a major battle between the doves and hawks at the BOE and ECB as the war, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions are significantly increasing risks to growth while inflation is going through the roof. And in Asia, the zero-covid policies and restrictions in China are exacerbating a worrisome slowing in activity while price pressures are relatively tame. Inflation and growth reports will be the highlights ahead.

RBA surprised markets by raising interest rates for the first time since 2010, by 25 bps from 0.1% to 0.35%. The committee suggested there could be more gains in the future, as inflation picked up faster than anticipated. The AUDUSD picked up quickly, but was also quickly sold off in the last week, as fears of slowing growth in China following Covid-19 lockdowns affected the Australian Dollar.

China’s trade data for April released earlier this morning showed imports exploded last month, as tighter lockdowns of major cities and worse prints are expected this month, with imports set to fall -3% on the yearly measure. China’s annual inflation rate rose to a 3-month high of 1.5% in March 2022 from 0.9% in the previous two months and above market forecasts of 1.2%. China set its target CPI around 3% for the year, the same as in 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unexpectedly flat in March, compared to a consensus 0.1% decline and after a 0.6% gain in February.

This is bad news for countries that depend on China’s demand for their commodity products, especially Australia. With China’s economy slowing down dramatically, there will definitely be some negative effects on the Australian economy.

On the other side of the world, US inflation releases are the focal point this week now that the May policy meeting and the jobs report are out of the way. That pressures failed to abate last year and into 2022 as the FOMC expected has cost policymakers some credibility as the long-touted “transitory” inflation never materialized. The acceleration in prices to multi-decade, if not record highs by some measures, stirred fears the Fed was behind the curve and forced the Committee to aggressively increase interest rates — last week’s 50 bps hike was the largest since 2000.

Australian Dollar 

AUDUSD closed last week with a decline of -0.53% and closed at 0.7072. A move to the downside is possible to retest the 0.6966 low, as long as the 0.7265 resistance holds. A sustained break of the 0.6966 support will deepen the correction wave 0.8006 to the 50.0% FR retracement level in the 0.6775 price range in the coming weeks. Conversely, if the support at 0.6966 holds, it will take the asset into consolidation.

AUDUSD,H4

AUDUSD,H4– edged lower to 0.7029 last week, rebounding to 0.7265 before turning lower. The initial bias remains neutral this week and views are changing, that the decline from 0.7660 is the third move of the corrective pattern from 0.8006. A price move below 0.7029 will target the 0.6966 low first. A strong break there would confirm a medium term bearish case. However, a move above the price of 0.7265 will confuse the prospects for the future.

Technical indicators are still validating movement to the downside, with 2 oscillation indicators in the sell zone and price movement below the Alligator, Kumo and 200-period EMA.

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Sterling 

The Sterling fell sharply after the BOE’s decision to raise by 25 basis points brought interest rates from 0.75% to 1.00%. The bank later warned of a possible halt in economic growth and inflation to spike higher than they expected. During the press conference, BOE Governor Bailey said that he disagreed with those who think the BOE should raise interest rates more. This statement brought the Pound to a significant decline in value against most major currencies and further declines are possible in the next week, although a brief rally cannot be ruled out.

The ambiguous guidance on interest rates ran counter to market expectations for further significant policy tightening and the outcome of the meeting was more dovish than the market had expected. The Bank considers the risk of a weighing recession in policy considerations. The downside risks surrounding economic growth are intensifying and the BOE is much more focused on avoiding a recession than fighting inflation. Markets responded by recalibrating the trajectory for lower UK interest rates, dragging GBPUSD to fresh two-year lows. In addition, stock volatility tends to hurt the Pound, which is sensitive to global risk appetite.

The UK will release Q1 GDP on Thursday and March Industrial Production. Perhaps better data can give the Pound a much-needed boost.

The Pound lost -1.9% against the US Dollar last week, for the 3rd straight week of losses. Sustained weakness looks to be testing 2 low price levels, namely 1.2250 and 1.2072. Last week, the pair bottomed out at 1.2275 before closing at 1.2334. As long as the support at 1.2250 holds, there is a possibility that a short term rebound could occur to 1.2637.

GBPUSD, H4

GBPUSD, H4 – The intraday bias is still inclined to the downside and a strong break of the 1.2250 support will bring the asset to a test of the 76.8% FR (1.2072) retracement level. On the upside, a break of the 1.2637 resistance is needed to indicate a near-term low and open the door for a test of the 1.2972 price level. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bearish, despite the recovery.

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New Zealand Dollar

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s strong labor market in Q1 and the unemployment rate at a record low of 3.2% brought no significant changes for the Kiwi, last week. The emergence of global growth concerns, especially in China, built a stigma for falling commodity prices which ultimately affected the New Zealand Dollar as a commodity currency.

NZ inflation hit 6.9% in Q1 and the RBNZ is determined to curb inflation expectations. The RBNZ raised interest rates by 0.50% in April to 1.50% and indicated further tightening is needed. Despite the RBNZ’s hawkish stance, the New Zealand Dollar underperformed amid the strengthening US Dollar.

NZDUSD continued its decline for the 6th week in a row, losing more than -6% in April and additional losses for May above -1%. The 0.6380 minor support looks soft, after the break of the 0.6528 support 2 weeks ago. Further declines should target the 61.8% FR retracement level around the 0.6227 price level. As long as the resistance at 0.6567 holds, the outlook remains bearish.

NZDUSD, H8
The intraday bias remains tilted to the downside for the FE100.0% projection at 0.6344 from a drawdown of 0.7217-0.6528 and 0.7033. However a move above the 0.6567 resistance would confuse the short-term outlook. Technical indicators are still validating intraday price moves to the downside, overall.

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Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Russian Oil Ban for EU Makes Progress

The European Union continues to sanction Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine. In the sixth round of measures proposed on Wednesday which focused on increasing the pressure on Russia and reducing the damage in Europe, a package was proposed that seeks to ban all oil imports and reduce gas from Russia by the end of this year (the EU receives approximately 25% of its oil, 14% of its Diesel and 40% of its natural gas from Russia), eliminate the country’s largest bank Sberbank (a third of the Russian banking sector) along with two other banks from the SWIFT international payment network, ban the 3 largest Russian state broadcasters, prohibit the provision of European services to Russian companies and sanctions to the military involved in war crimes that occurred in Bucha and Mariupol.

“We will ensure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly manner, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimize the impact on global markets,” Von Der Leyen said.

Until now, Germany has been one of the countries opposed to the brake on imports, being one of the largest dependents, with the focus on the Schwedt refinery, to which Russian oil arrives, but lately there has been a reduction in their dependency from 35% to 12%. This region is the only one in Germany that continues to depend on Russian oil, thanks to the fact that this refinery belongs, in majority ownership, to the Russian state company Rosneft. On the other hand, there is the concern of the population where said refinery is located, since the closure of this site could ruin the local economy, being the economic force of Schwedt, providing more than 90% of the fuel for the northeast of Germany, including Berlin, giving the possibility of a fuel collapse in the region as well as parts of Poland, affecting everything from drivers to the Berlin airport. As part of the solution, Berlin is considering a new law that would give the German state the power to take over energy facilities deemed crucial to national security. Economy and Energy Minister Robert Habeck has sought alternative ways to speed up the phase-out of Russian energies, mentioning in a video that Germany is moving away from Russian oil faster than expected and that an embargo on oil energy could be done without leading into a recession, although there would be a sharp rise in prices (which has already risen 40% since the beginning of the year) and there could be a shortage in the region.

Even though the UK, US, Canada and Australia are not part of the EU, they too are already phasing out Russian oil. The Netherlands mentioned that it wants to stop all imports by the end of this year. On the contrary, there are several countries (Hungary, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc.) that are against such a sanction or that would like to have a longer transition period of up to 3 years.

 UKOil – D1

The price of UKOil had a daily bullish candle that after being supported by the 21-period SMA rose from 105.40 to 110.96, breaking the downward trend of the triangle that has been forming since March on the rise and the 50-period SMA, with a target above the March highs above 140.00. In case it fails to break above the previous high at 114.00 and/or the pattern is invalidated there is support at the psychological level of 100.00 and below that the 100 period SMA.

ADX is low at 14.44, +DI 22.21 -DI 15.25, and there is no confirmed trend yet. However, on H4 it is at 34.96, confirming the uptrend.

USOil – D1

The USOil has a similar picture, with a break of the triangle to the upside with a target above 130.00 almost at 140.00, and the daily candle supported in the 50-day SMA to go from 102.90 to 108.55. The price has resistance at 110.00 and support at the psychological level of 100.00.

ADX at 13.26, +DI at 23.93 -DI at 15.36, with still no trend confirmed. However, like UKOil, on the H4 timeframe the ADX is at 37.00 confirming the uptrend since May 3 with +DI at 24.93 and -DI at 7.78.

Sources:

• https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61318689
• https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61318690
• https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/04/business/eu-russia-oil-ban/index.html
• https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/05/05/eu-takes-major-step-toward-russian-oil-ban-new-sanctions/

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Aldo Zapien

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Mexico

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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USDCAD: 1.3000 key level will determine direction

Headlines in regards to how high inflation and rising interest rates will slow growth, and Canada’s GDP report last week reinforced the view that the momentum in the Canadian economy is not stopping. In February, GDP rose by 1.1%, the fastest advance since March 2021, above the market forecast of 0.8% amid the easing of Omicron-related restrictions. Improvements to the February print and a strong flash forecast for March point to 5.6% annualized growth for Q1. Compared to the others, Canada is clearly superior.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

The BoC may no longer need to convince that a 50 bp hike is needed at its June 1 meeting. This has sent the Canadian 2-year and 10-year yields soaring last week and this week to reach 2.66% and 2.95%, respectively. With Canadian yields narrowing the gap relative to US Treasuries, the Loonie has appreciated more than half a percent.

Technical Overview

USDCAD has formed an Ascending Triangle pattern. The focus remains on the psychological 1.3000 level and the 38.2%FR level at 1.3022 from the withdrawal of the March 2020 peak and the May 2021 low. A sustained break of the 38.2%FR level would confirm that the downtrend from 1.4667 has been completed and the 1.206 long term support maintained. Further gains should be seen towards 50.0%FR at 1.3333 first, however rejection at 1.3022 would maintain the medium term bearish bias. A break of 1.2006 would continue the downtrend and carry more bearish implications.

USDCAD,H4

The intraday bias is currently neutral after retreating from 1.2912. Some consolidation is seen, but further rally is expected as long as support holds. A move above 1.2912 would continue the rally to 1.3000 next. A decisive break there would carry even greater bullish implications. On the downside, in the short term the price is likely to test 2 price levels, namely 1.2717 and 1.2675, before attempting to move back to the upside. The oscillation is testing the critical level of the midline from the upside, and a bounce back from the midline would indicate the price of the asset is not yet expected to fall. Broadly speaking, the indications from the technical indicators are still dominant to the upside, however traders should watch out for the 1.3000 price range.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Falling Stocks and Bonds Means Next Recession can be Different

Monday kicked off with a fresh wave of risk aversion, with European markets and US Futures falling by an average of 1.5%. SPX futures fell below 4100 points, a probe below 4000 is in sight which will likely trigger powerful rebound. Greenback sticks to recent highs (104 pts on DXY). Market sentiment continues to be dominated by three themes: 1) The conflict in Ukraine, 2) China's economic slowdown, and 3) Fed tightening. On the third topic, release of April US CPI in Wednesday should have a big impact on market sentiment as consumer inflation and wage growth are now the key variables determining tightening path of the Fed. Short-term outlook for greenback remains positive thanks to EM outflows which should be expressed in a larger greenback appreciation in EM pairs (USDZAR, USDMXN, USDBRL, USDINR) compared to others.Despite decreasing demand for risk there is apparently no active rotation to bonds: with expectations of higher inflation, bonds may be no longer considered as a safe heaven or are considered, but to a lesser extent. As a result, due to the slump both in stocks and bonds, the dollar trades at its highest level in almost 20 years:Speaking of upcoming release of the US CPI for April, an inflation reading below 8% consensus forecast is unlikely to be a big surprise for investors, especially if used car prices, which had been rising at a frantic pace in 2021, show a bigger drop. At the same time, an upside surprise may well trigger a rumor that the Fed may hike interest rate by 75 bp at the next meeting, which, according to the Fed is off the table for now. In case of upside surprise in inflation with a print closer to 8.5% in headline reading we can easily see a new high in the dollar and a new leg of Treasury sell-off.The story of European sanctions against the Russian Federation and the oil embargo develops according to a not very favorable scenario for the market: the United States imposed sanctions on the top management of Gazprombank, which may portend imminent sanctions on the bank itself. In this case, Russia will not be able to receive payments for key commodity exports. For Europe, this threatens to bring even more inflationary pressures and probably a recession later this year.USDCNY extended gains on Monday, which added to the market anxiety in overall as falling mainland renminbi has recently been perceived by investors as a measure of the CCP to cushion the blow from their tough policy to combat covid and slowdown in economic activity. USDCNY gained almost one percent on Monday which put greater pressure on Asian stocks.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/falling-stocks-and-bonds-means-next-recession-can-be-different"
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Domino’s Pizza’s share price will heat up again – here's how to play it

Investors have lost their appetite for Domino’s Pizza chain, but the shares are cheap, says Matthew Partridge.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/trading/604803/dominos-pizzas-share-price-will-heat-up-again-heres-how-to-play-it
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Precious Metals Monday 09-05-2022

Metals Markets Falling On Higher USD Gold and silver remain subdued this week as recent strength in the US Dollar continues to act as a barrier. With the Fed having hiked rates by .5%, and signalling further .5% hikes to come, USD remains firmly in demand. The Fed cited excessive inflation and tightness in the labour market as necessary grounds for such tightening of its monetary policy. With the Dollar index breaking out to multi -year highs last week, both gold and silver took a backseat.Gold prices are currently down around 7% from the April highs while silver prices have seen over twice that decline, sitting around 15% off April highs. Along with a firmer USD, plunging equities prices have hit silver. Fears over a potential global recession later in the year are starting to weigh on demand for silver. For gold, while lower equities prices would typically feed into safe haven support, it seems the market is preferring to use the Dollar itself as a safe haven vehicle, further weighing on sentiment in the metals market.Looking ahead this week, the focus will be on US CPI for April. Given the Fed’s hawkishness, further strength in inflation readings will no doubt exacerbate the current market dynamics, leading USD higher and weighing on metals near-term. It will take a proper correction in USD prices to help metals rebound this week so while USD remains supported, both gold and silver look vulnerable to further declines.Technical ViewsGoldThe recent failure at the bull channel top has seen the market correcting deeply lower. For now, price is sitting on support at the 1871.04 level, ahead of the bull channel low. While price holds below the 1919.92 level, the focus is on a further push lower. Bears will need to see a break of the channel low and 1826.71 level support to cause a bigger shift in view, however. Both MACD and RSI are bearish here though the lift in RSI is worth paying attention to.SilverSilver prices are at a very interesting technical juncture here. The market is retesting the broken bear channel top as well as the rising trend line support from Q3 2021 lows. While this region holds as support, a further rotation higher is still viable. However, given the bearish readings in both MACD and RSI, the market is vulnerable to a deeper drop should we see a break of 22.3205 with 21.4523 and 19.5643 the next support levels to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-09-05-2022"
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Mastercard: Will Fed’s Rate Hike Be Its Tailwind?

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its benchmark rate by 50 bp to 0.75%-1.00%,  the largest single hike since May 2000 in an attempt to tackle a 40-year high in US inflation. In addition to reducing asset holdings, Fed Chair Powell signaled a couple of rate hikes by 50 bp in the coming meetings. He also reiterated that the central bank will go down to rate hikes of 25 bp “if inflation comes down”.

Fig.1: US Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Source: Trading Economics

On the other hand, the Non-Farm Payrolls in April 2022 recorded an increase of 428K in employment, marking job gains above 400K for twelve consecutive months. The unemployment rate stayed flat at the previous level of 3.6%, slightly higher than consensus estimates at 3.5%. Labor force participation marked its lowest level since January, at 62.2%. In addition, average hourly wage hits new low since March 2021, at 0.3% – this may be an indication of inflation slowing down. Regardless of the results, the CME watch tool shows that the Fed’s decision for tightening monetary policy remains unchanged.

Tightening of monetary policy may not be friendly to the stock market. In this circumstance, its fairly essential to locate stocks that could possibly withstand a rising-rate environment. Mastercard Inc. may be one of the candidates. Being one of the conglomerates in the global payment space, Mastercard facilitates payment transactions in more than 200 countries with more than $7 trillion flow through its network and over 2.5 billion cards in circulation. Following the central bank’s rate hike, Mastercard will collect higher fees for each transaction by serving as a middleman between sellers and consumers.

However, it is also worth noting that the economic conditions plays a great role in determining the outlook for the company. If economies fall into recession, reduced demand and spending may inevitably hurt the business of all global payment companies. On a positive note, collaboration with Microsoft and Zeta offers a more competitive edge for Mastercard in aspects such as safety, security, convenience of e-commerce, online banking and contactless transactions.

Technical Overview:

The daily chart shows #Mastercard trading within an ascending wedge, currently testing the lower line at $341.30, or FR 38.2% extended from the highest point ($399.90) in February’22 to the lowest point ($305.15) in March’22. Breaking below the level would indicate bearish possibilities for the company’s share price to test the next support zone $324.00 – $327.50, and $300.15 – $305.15. On the other hand, $352.50 (FR 50.0%) serves as the nearest resistance to watch. A strong candlestick close above the said level as well as the 100-day SMA may suggest more buying pressures towards the next resistance at $363.70  (FR 61.8%) $379.60 (FR 78.6%) and the highest point seen this year at $399.90.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /333294/
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Investment Bank Outlook 09-05-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightThe USD has extended its gains against all its G10 FX peers at the start of this week, as the Antipodeans’ FX are underperforming in the wake of broad equity losses. Of special note, NZD/USD has dipped below 0.6350 for the first time since H120, while AUD/USD has slipped back toward the big psychological support of 0.70. The publication of resilient Chinese external trade data for April gave them no relief whatsoever, as the concerns expressed by China’s Premier Li Keqiang over the Covid situation in Beijing and Shanghai have possibly weighed more. Meanwhile, the CAD and NOK have only been marginally spared by the steady oil prices following the G7 announcement over the weekend that it will gradually phase out imports of Russian oil, without giving too much details either. Outside of the commodity bloc, the low-yielders are also struggling against the USD, as UST yields have for now held up well at the start of the week. USD/JPY has rallied back to 131, while marginally above-consensus labour earnings data in Japan are unlikely to sway BoJ policymakers just yet.CitiEuropean OpenMonday morning saw risk-off tones permeate through markets, with concerns over geopolitical risk prevailing on Russia’s Victory Day holiday. USD was the only currency in the green in the G10 complex, with DXY up 0.34%. AUD and NZD were down over 1% as high beta currencies were hit. The former currently sits close to the psychological resistance of 0.7000. INR set a new record low, breaking above the 77 handle, while CNH dropped despite a stronger than expected yuan fixing that was set for the fifth consecutive day. Chinese trade balance data saw exports and imports come in above the consensus figures. Oil markets pared losses from an initial dip early in Asian trading to trade slightly in the green. Meanwhile, equities continued their decline from Friday. UST front end yields were down slightly.Today’s focus will likely remain on the risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. PHP will await the results of today’s Presidential, vice presidential, and general elections. CZK will await industrial output data, TWD a trade balance print and MXN a CPI print. We remind that HKD and RUB are on holiday today.G10: AUD was the biggest loser at -1%, and faced a test of the psychological 0.7000 support. Other high beta currencies were close behind in losses, with NZD -0.98%, NOK -0.7% and CAD -0.55%. CHF and JPY lost the least at -0.25% and -0.3% respectively–EM currencies saw major losses as well. INR set a new record, breaking past the 77 handle and sitting -0.5% at 77.32. CNH was also of note, trading 0.45% lower on a stronger dollar, despite a stronger than expected yuan fixing was set for the fifth consecutive day.–CE3 currencies were down over 0.5% as well, while risk proxy ZAR was down 0.8%Equities continued their decline seen on Friday, with both S&P eminis (-1%) and Nasdaq100 futures (-0.9%) down. Asian equities saw Kospi down 1.14%, and Nikkei down 2.29%. Kospi in particular will be watched as in heads towards the lowest close since November 2020. HSI was closed due to a HK holiday.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-09-05-2022"
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Market Update – May 9 – USD dominance rips through every marker on FED

Monday Markets Blues

Sometimes the cause take place after the effect? This is what looks to be the case this week. The USD surged to 2001 to has been bought and fixed income sold on ideas that the Fed had taken a hawkish turn, with investors searching for safety.  The hikes will be front-loaded with the next 50 bp hikes discounted for the next two meetings (June and July) and a strong leaning for the same in September (~66%). Yields 10-year is up 1.0 p at 3.14%. Stock markets are broadly lower, with Japanese markets underperforming and the Nikkei down -2.5%. Tighter lockdowns against in Beijing and Shanghai raised pressure on its economy, while China reported faster-than-expected growth in exports for April, while imports were flat.

Meanwhile in the market, speculation that President Putin might declare war on Ukraine in order to call up reserves during his speech at “Victory Day” celebrations could hurt further market sentiment.

The week ahead is important because it may be the first signs that may be peak inflation is at hand.

• USDIndex above 104.10. 
• Equities – Nikkei down -2.5%. The ASX closed with a loss of -1.2%, the CSI is currently down -1.4%, while Hong Kong was closed today. USA500 led the way with a drop of 1.1%, while USA100 shed 1.0%
• Yields 10-year is up 1.0 p at 3.14%, Australia’s long yield also continued to climb and the German 10-year rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.13% this morning. 
• Oil back to 109, after  EU and G7 mull Russian oil imports while Saudi Arabia cut prices for buyers in Asia as China’s lockdowns weigh on demand in the region.
• Gold drifted back to 1869 as it looks less attractive from the safety of USD, while elevated yields further weighed on prices.
• Bitcoin hammered! Gapped down to at 33,228. The start of a sharp technical fall ?
• FX markets – EURUSD ιs just over the 1.05 mark, AUD and NZD also struggled against the largely stronger USD. USDJPY climbed above the 131 mark and Cable is at a near 2-year low at currently 1.2259.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-2.17%) drfted to  S1 at 108.15 in the EU open. MAs & Stochastics bearishly crossed, and RSI is at 41 sloping lower. H1 ATR 0.91, Daily ATR 4.43.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Daily Market Outlook, May 9, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 9, 2022 Overnight Headlines China Export Growth Slows To Lowest In Almost 2 Years, Imports Flat China Paper Sees Q2 GDP Slow To 2.1%; RRR Cut Unlikely In May China Stimulus Fails To Ignite Housing Sales Over Key Holiday China Premier Warns Of ‘Grave’ Jobs Situation As Lockdowns Weigh Shanghai Tightens Lockdown To Hit Zero-Covid Goal By Late May Some In BoJ Called For Keeping Easy Policy In The March Meeting Minutes Japan March Real Wages Fall For First Time In Three Months Biden To Give Remarks On Inflation Tuesday, Contrast Plan GOP’s Pelosi Urges Congress To Approve $33Bln In Aid For Ukraine By End Of May EU’s Borrell: EU Should Seize Russian Reserves To Rebuild Ukraine ECB’s Holzmann: Two Or Even Three Steps To Hikes Appropriate This Year UK Deputy Prime Minister: UK Moving Fast To ‘Fix’ Northern Ireland Protocol Putin To Send 'Doomsday' Warning To West At Russia's WW2 Victory Parade Yuan Touches New 18-Month Low As Lockdowns Cloud Economic Outlook Bitcoin’s Value Drops By 50% Since November Peak Last Year Oil Prices Slip As Investors Eye EU Vote On Russian Oil Embargo G-7 Leaders Commit To Banning Imports Of Oil From Russia Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Futures Lower On Rate, Lockdown WorriesThe Week Ahead This week's data calendar is dominated by U.S. consumer prices as inflation fears hang over global financial markets. April headline CPI is expected to rise 8.1% year-on-year, down from 8.5% in March. A hotter-than-expected reading will raise concerns the Federal Reserve is behind the inflation curve. Other U.S. data this week includes April PPI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Germany's ZEW will be the key release out of Europe this week. Other euro zone data includes industrial production and German CPI. The main event in the UK this week will be preliminary Q1 GDP. The Bank of England highlighted growth concerns while raising rates last week, making the pound the worst-performing major currency. The UK will also be releasing trade and manufacturing output data. China is due to release trade data on Monday and the focus will be on the import and export components rather than the net trade balance. Chinese PPI and CPI are also on tap this week; monthly credit data may be released as well. Japan released services PMI data early Monday ; trade, current account and household spending data are due during the week. In Australia it will be the NAB business survey, along with consumer sentiment and retail trade. No top-tier data is due in New Zealand or Canada.CFTC Data This week’s positioning data from the CFTC show a massive buildup in the aggregate USD long position to its highest level of the year ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. The bullish USD position rose by USD6.0bn to USD19.4bn in a period when the DXY traded at its strongest level in close to two decades. In terms of currency performances, only the MXN managed to gain ground against the dollar in the week to Tuesday (+0.7%) among the currencies we cover in this report, with the JPY weakening the most (-2.2%). The EUR net long was sharply slashed to a small net short of USD839mmn as it followed two consecutive USD1bn+ declines with a massive USD3.8bn bet against it this week. The currency has held close to the 1.05 mark over the past seven sessions and struggling to make up much ground. This is the first time investors have held a negative position on the EUR since the first week of the year; outstanding short contracts are at their highest level since November. Investors’ sentiment in the GBP continued to worsen as the pound’s short climbed to a new high since Q4-2019. Accounts increased the bearish GBP position by USD295mn to USD5.8bn ahead of the Fed and BoE decisions—with the latter’s dovish hike yesterday contributing to the GBP briefly trading below 1.23 this morning. After the shift in the EUR position, the CAD’s net long fell the most with a USD925mn drop to USD703mn—its lowest level in five weeks—that still represents the largest bullish bet of the currencies shown in this report. The MXN, which led its report peers this week followed by the CAD, saw its small net long fall by USD132mn to USD360mn (roughly half of the CAD’s). The large JPY short retraced about a quarter of last week’s improvement with investors placing a USD295mn bet against the yen taking its aggregate short to USD9.7bn (almost USD4bn more than the GBP’s). The CHF, which also underperformed over the period with a 1.6% drop, saw its bearish position grow by USD105mn to USD1.8bn as the franc is also on the backfoot amid surging US yields. Finally, the AUD short climbed by a marginal USD54mn to now sit at USD2bn in a week that included a larger-than-expected hike by the RBA on Tuesday—while Aussie remains pressured by a weak risk mood in markets. Neutral NZD sentiment turned into a net short of USD 425mn owing to a USD430mn wager against the kiwi.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0500 (391M), 1.0520 (500M), 1.0600 (688M), 1.0630 (301M) AUD/USD: 0.7100 (1.4BN), 0.7125 (76M) USD/CAD 1.2780 (290M), 1.2805 (588M), 1.2820-30 (1.09BN) Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0950 Bullish above Falls to 1.0500 as USD rises while equities swoon EUR/USD opened around 1.0550 after closing unchanged around 1.0545 Friday USD firmed in Asia after E-minis gapped nearly 1% lower at the open Risk currencies bore the brunt of USD buying while EUR/USD eased to 1.0503 Support for the EUR/USD is at the April 28 low at 1.0469 Bids below 1.0500 have underpinned EUR/USD over the past week A break below 1.0450 targets the 2017 trend low at 1.0340 Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 1.0543 and 21-day MA at 1.0690 USD should remain firm while risk assets remain under stressGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.30 Bullish above. Heavy, as domestic factors cap and USD climbs -0.35% amid broad safe haven USD strength, as stocks fall, E-mini S&P -1% Trades towards the base of a 1.2287-1.2359 range - plenty of activity on D3 UK urge N. Ireland to agree way forward after Sinn Fein win Sterling to slide until confidence in policy returns... Charts; momentum studies edge lower, 5, 10 & 21 day and week MA's slide 21 day Bollinger bands fall, as the strong bearish setup remains in play 1.2478 10 DMA resistance tested last week - now the first major barrier 1.2276 early Europe low Friday and 1.2252 June 2020 base initial supportsUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 125 Bearish below USD/JPY powers above 131.00 again on wider Japan-US int rate diffs Interest rate differential on 10s as high as 291 bps early Asia Diverging central bank policies could see differential 300 bps+ soon USD/JPY from 130.59 early to 131.05 EBS, nearing 131.25 spike high Apr 28 Japanese exporter sales post-Tokyo fix only take it back to 130.68 Heavier offers 131.00+ but not enough to cap, spec sales too to book profits Stops on 131.25 break, above presumed option barriers at 131.50 Tokyo, most of Asia risk-off, Nikkei -2.1 @26,432, E-Minis -1% @4077 EUR/JPY steady with EUR/USD heavy but holding above 1.0500, 137.51-82 EBS GBP/JPY 160.72-161.41, heavy, AUD/JPY heavy too, 91.58-92.40 Japan April PMI services 50.7, flash 50.5, comp 51.1, Mar 50.3AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7300 Bearish below Holds above 0.7000 – China trades better than expected AUD/USD made fresh session low at 0.7004 but holding above 0.7000 for now China exports and imports for April came in a bit better than expected The better China data may give the AUD/USD a short reprieve after sell-off Sellers are now tipped at former support at 0.7030 AUD will continue to struggle while equities and metals remain pressured.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-may-9-2022"
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