Friday, May 13, 2022
Share tips of the week – 13 May
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Thursday, May 12, 2022
Investment Bank Outlook 12-05-2022
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-12-05-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, May 12, 2022
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Bitcoin Is on Thin Ice
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Market Update – May 12 – Tech Trounced as Inflation possibly peaks
USD rallies to new highs following much volatility after US CPI data for April was lower than March but higher than expected, rekindled concern that aggressive central bank action will weigh on growth. Stocks sharply into the red, Yields Yields spiked sharply higher a tad as talk of Treasury rout also cools with 10-yr back under 3.00%. Oil jumped after Russia sanctioned 31 companies & on recession fears . Gold slightly up , but holds below $1860. Bitcoin tumbed to new 16-month low. UK economy shrinks in March, grows 0.8% in Q1. Nomura estimated this week that 41 Chinese cities are in full or partial lockdowns, making up 30% of the country’s GDP. Reuters : “Property developer Sunac China missed a bond interest payment and will miss more as China’s real estate sector remains in the grip of a credit crunch.” New Zealand inflation survey steady.
- USDIndex spiked to 104.20 & holds its bid trading at 104 now.
- Equities – USA500 slided below the 4000 level before bouncing back, into the green with the USA30. But all of the indexes crashed into the close, paced by the USA100’s -3.18% plunge. Nikkei dropped 1.8%, the ASX also -1.8%.
- Yields had jumped to 2.839% and 3.07%, respectively, in the immediate aftermath of the data. 10-year rate closed 6.5 bps lower at 2.920%, with the 2-year up 3 bps to 2.64%.
- Oil breached $106.23 before reversing to $103.46 (PP of the day).
- Bitcoin fire-sale of risky assets as rate hikes gather steam, fell 7% to $26,673.
- FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.0489, USDJPY drifted further in EU open to 129.25, & Cable retests 1.2210. AUD & NZD at 2 year’s low.
Today – US PPI & Initial CLaims, Speeches from BOC Gravelle.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ETHUSD (-12.47%) Down to June’s 2021, at 1787. MAs aligning lower, MACD signal line & histogram extend lower, RSI 27 OS, H1 ATR 90.59, Daily ATR 236.65.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.
from HF Analysis /334629/
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The return of the Marcos dynasty to the Philippines
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Calculate your personal inflation rate
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Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Currencies: the yen just keeps on tumbling
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4 weeks of sharp falls for Gold
The price of gold has had a sharp contraction in recent weeks and some days with falls greater than 300 pips. Gold reacts to global conflicts and the movements of banks in reaction to them.
This week, Gold started with its first two days of declines, reacting to the Fed’s rate hike from 0.50% to 1.00%, the biggest increase in 22 years. In addition, today the president of the Fed-Cleveland, Loretta Mester, supported the monetary tightening by pointing out that they would maintain a pair of increases of 50bp (for June-July marked by Powell) and up to 75bp expecting it to exceed 2.5% for the reduction, emphasizing that no option will be ruled out if inflation does not fall in Q2, as inflation is currently the highest in 40 years. Now this week’s focus is on the annual CPI with a forecast of 8.1% expecting a reduction of 0.4% from the previous one at 8.5%, an underlying CPI with a forecast of 6.0% with a reduction of 0.5% compared to the previous one of 6.5%, percentages not seen since 1980. In addition, oil inventories could go from 1,302M to -0.457M.
“We don’t rule out 75bp forever, right? The pace we’re going at now seems right to me” – “We’re going to have to assess whether inflation is really going down, and then we can get more information after making a couple of those hikes (50bp) to watch” – Loretta Mester on Bloomberg TV.
On the other hand, the Dollar continues to hold steady despite the pullback of Treasury yields to 2.94% and the risk reduction giving the bears a bit of an edge in the metal, but will it stay the same tomorrow after the data?
However, gold also remains the usual safe haven from global issues such as Covid restrictions in China, the Ukraine-Russia war, the increase in global inflation coupled with the crisis due to the pandemic, and the increase in the price of gas and oil for the eurozone from the Russian energy ban.
XAUUSD
The price of gold has remained under pressure in recent weeks after having broken upwards the year’s triangle, marking a journey that went from the 1,780s to mark a maximum at 2,070.35 very close to the historical maximum of 2,075.08. However, it did not manage to stay above the psychological level of 2,000, giving a fall to the already broken trendline of the triangle breaking the 1,900, the 21-week SMA and for the moment stopping at the 50- and 100-week SMA in 1,833.52 and 1,840.30 after a drop of more than 400 pips in this active weekly candle.
The ADX is at 28.45 with bearish bias, the -DI is crossed above the +DI and is at 23.72.
In the daily timeframe we can observe the failure of Gold to sustain the 2,000 highs, activating an OB condition and the beginning of a sharp downwards move for gold. The asset turned back below the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA at 1,835.52, very close to the triangle, which could provide a strong support level at 1,830, the last buying level before the psychological level of 1,800.00. In the case of a rebound from the latter, gold could recover 1,850.00, the 100-day SMA. On the flipside, falling below 1,800, we would expect supports at previous lows marked by this triangle that could reach 1,700.00 and even the 200-week SMA at 1,625.06.
ADX is at 26.34 with bullish bias rebounding at the level of 25, +DI at 12.88 being surpassed by the -DI at 31.12 marking a possible start of downtrend, if this configuration manages to be maintained.
Sources
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Aldo Zapien
Market Analyst – Educational Office – Mexico
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.
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Daily Market Outlook, May 11, 2022
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Market Update – May 11 – All about the Inflation Outlook
USD holds at highs and on standby for US CPI later, Stocks stalled their recent declines, Yields cool a tad as talk of Treasury rout also cools with 10-yr back under 3.00%. Oil paused its 9% slump on EU Oil ban and OPEC talk of capacity issues. Gold under $1850. Asian shares off 2-year lows (Nikkei +0.18%). Chinese Inflation hotter than expected, Biden supports FEB actions, more Fed members talk rate hikes, NZ housing market shows signs of cooling. US House of Representatives approves $400bn support package for Ukraine as US intelligence chief talks of Putin preparing for “long war”.
- USDIndex remains under 104.00 but holds its bid trading at 103.75 now.
- Equities – USA500 +9.81 (0.25%) at 4001.05, US500FUTS at 4015 now. Peloton -8.7% @ $12.70 (ATH was $171), COIN -12.6%, TSLA +1.64%, TWTR -1.64% (Musk would allow TRUMP back). APPLE (+1.61%) retired the Ipod after 21 years.
- Yields cooled -10-yr closed at 2.993%, below key 3.00% level. Trades down over 1.5% today at 2.98%.
- Oil & Gold both had weak & volatile sessions – USOil tested down to $98.00 before reversing to $102.20 Gold slumped from $1865 to $1830 earlier and struggles at $1845 now. No safe-haven bid.
- Bitcoin languishes at $31K now, over 50% down from ATH and -35% YTD
- FX markets – EURUSD up from 1.0500 to 1.0545, USDJPY holds over 130.00, at 130.25 and Cable continues to struggle at 1.2335. AUD outperformed in Asia.
Overnight – CHINA CPI & PPI hotter than expected, (2.1% vs 1.5% & 8.0% vs 7.8%) respectively. JPY leading Indicators better than expected & German M/M CPI in-line at 0.8%. ECB’s Müller: Appropriate to raise rates into positive territory by year-end. FEds Waller & Mester more hawkish. (Mester talked of going beyond neutral)
Today – US CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel, Elderson, de Cos, Centeno, Vasle & Muller. Earnings from Ubisoft, Siemens Energy, Poste Italiane, E.ON, Continental, ITV, Compass & Beyond Meat.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.42%) Rallied from lows at 0.6910 yesterday to 0.6970 now, next resistance 0.6980 and 0.7000 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & testing 0 line, RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0016, Daily ATR 0.011.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.
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Ellenborough Park: a winning country house hotel
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How to find an angel investor for your business
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How to make your child a financial whizz
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