Investment Bank Outlook 18-05-2022

CIBCKey Headlines US$ kicked off the session bit weak, speculators probably sold $YEN reacted to weak UST yields. EUR$ also traded lower but was linked to EUR¥ cross. One information service provider reported there was decent block buying in the 2-year US note.FX FlowsFirst quarter flash GDP shrank 0.2% and annualised fell 1%. Nikkei Asian Review said accelerating inflation and Covid cases in Q1 contributed to the GDP. US$ kicked off the session bit weak, speculators probably sold $YEN reacted to weak UST yields. One FX reporters noted offers surrounding 129.80 said to be from Tokyo names, these could be the retail accounts taking profit. Also, there should be some 130.00 strikes coming up. We don’t see much on the downside, anything below 129 will attract buying from Japanese retail guys.Australia’s first quarter wage price index disappointed the bulls. Annual wage increased 2.4% underscored RBA’s cautious policy tightening cycle. AU$ fell instantly from 0.7036 to 0.70125. Seemed that OIS pricing for next RBA meeting slipped 4 bps to 0.65%. AU$ struggled to recover but same time, bids were felt below 0.7010. An Aussie bank put out a piece and said the pair should remain capped within 0.7075-0.7140 area.CAD started off strong, it was in line with performance of oil futures. Option gamma came into play below 1.2805, buy orders were filled and frustrated $CAD bears. Oil futures then moved lower, weak Aussie data and $CAD bounced back into the hands of the gamma players. We see corporate bids lower down, note there are about $2.65bn worth of 1.2730 strikes rolling off on Friday May 20. Canada will release the April inflation numbers today, our forecast for monthly up 0.3% and annual 6.5%, we are below consensus.Pretty dull day for the EUR$, it was mostly dominated by the EUR¥ cross. Some bids in the cross mentioned near 136.00, this stalled the downward momentum for the EUR$. It took a while before we cleared the bids and the cross slipped to 135.95. Think we should see eager buyers below 1.0510. Recent remarks from ECB members have been hawkish and we should expect them to be so. ECB Muller will be speaking today at 11.00 am CET.$CNH ended the session higher, there was no news or headlines whatsoever apart from weak Chinese and Hong Kong tech stocks. On the other hand, Jacky noted that overseas listed Chinese firms' dividend season coming soon in June-Aug, total dividend payable $70bn hence we may see more real $CNY buying demands.Who Said What? Japan Matsuno: Hope economy recovers as activity returns to normal; North Korea may make more provocations including nuclear test; giving positive consideration to joining IPEF Eco Min Yamagiwa: Ukraine impact will show up more in April-June quarter; China’s zero-Covid policy is having a big impact on supply chains; will put economy back on autonomous growth path by achieving virtuous cycle of growth and distribution; imports rose on easing supply-side restrictions and imports of vaccines and drugs; need to pay attention to rising raw material prices, swings in financial markets and supply-side restrictions; Japanese economy expected to pickup but uncertainty remains due to Ukraine situation Fed Evans: Favours front-loading rate hikes towards neutral; hope can shift to more measured pace after front-loading; could see the need to take policy somewhat above neutral; inflation is clearly to high, policy must reposition; sees good foundation for further solid growth; policy needs to moderate strong demand pressures; underlying inflation arguably about 4%, 4.5% right now; optimistic inflation going to be under 3% in 2023; if inflation is not responding to tighter policy to the degree needed, we are going to continue working on it; Fed’s dot plot playing useful role in providing guidance; sees Fed slowing pace of hikes to 25 bps steps before December; it is like the Fed will raise rates to above neutral.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-18-05-2022"
via IFTTT

Market Update – May 18

USDIndex lost some ground, albeit with the index at better than 20-year highs, as the market repriced for more hawkish BoE and ECB outlooks.  Yen is also back in demand, suggesting risk appetite is waning.There has also been a significant repricing of BoE and ECB risks. While the Fed remains on track to tighten policy 50 bps at upcoming meetings, there is growing expectation for the BoE and ECB to act to rein in inflation. The BoE is seen lifting rates in June, and may have to move more aggressively, due to the increasingly tight labor market, with the ECB likely raising rates in the summer. Stock markets’ rally has already started to run out of steam and mainland China bourses are struggling to add to yesterday’s gains, leaving the CSI 300 little changed on the day.

• Japan’s economy contracted -0.2% q/q at the start of the year, less than feared, but with Q4 growth revised down to 0.9% q/q from 1.1% q/q reported initially.
• UK CPI inflation hit 9.0% y/y in April, a sharp acceleration compared to the 7.0% y/y in Marc
• Equities – a hefty 2.76% pop has been seen in the USA100, along with solid gains of 2.02% and 1.34%, respectively, for the USA500 and USA30. Hang Seng managed a further 0.3% but the advance is looking nothing like the rally yesterday, with dip buying in tech stocks and confidence in China’s economy already faltering. Nikkei and ASX managed gains of 0.9% and 1%, but while European equity futures are managing slight gains.
• Yields 10-year rate is unchanged at 2.986%. The curve bear flattened 2.5 bps to 27.5 bps.
• Oil dipped to 111.80, but currently settles at 113.10 – there are signs of waning momentum today.
• Gold fell to $1807 as the USD recovered slightly, piling pressure on greenback-priced bullion alongside firm Treasury yields and an aggressive inflation stance by the US Federal Reserve chief.
• FX markets – USDJPY drifted to 128.93. The Cable rallied to 1.2500, posting its biggest move in 17 months;  And the EURUSD rose to 1.0563. Also, AUD firmed thanks to hawkish RBA minutes and a pick-up in oil prices.

Today – The calendar includes EU HCPI, US Housing Starts, and Canadian inflation.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.61%) down to 1.2412. MAs aligning lower, MACD signal line & histogram decline, RSI 41 pointing down, H1 ATR 0.002, Daily ATR 0.0140

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /452791/
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, May 18, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 18, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed’s Powell: Will Keep Pushing Until Inflation Comes Down Fed's Evans: Wants Smaller Rate Hikes By July Or September US To Block Russian Debt Payments, Raising Odds Of Default China Covid-19 Flareup Raise Risk Of More Disruptive Curbs Chinese New Home Prices Fall In First Time Since December Japan’s Sputtering Recovery Offers Support For BoJ Stimulus Australia Election Poll Show Race Tightening In Final Stretch ECB’s Lagarde Offers National Chiefs Louder Voice On Policy EU Set To Map Out Escape Path From Russian Fossil Fuels EU Offers Protocol Olive Branch While Threatens Trade War Poll: UK Living Cost Crisis Peaks This Year, BoE To Press On Twitter Board Say Plans To Enforce Musk Merger AgreementThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mostly higher with the notable exception of Chinese stocks. Investors digested hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Powell last night who said that interest rates will continue to rise until inflation is falling in a ‘clear and convincing way’ and that the Fed will not hesitate to move rates above their ‘neutral’ level to slow demand. He reiterated expectations for further 50bp hikes at the next two meetings in June and July, and left the door open for further half-point increases if needed. Data released earlier this morning showed UK annual CPI inflation rising from 7.0% to 9.0% in April, slightly below expectations for 9.1% (the first undershoot in seven months) but nevertheless the highest since the CPI series began. The old RPI measure increased to a forty-year high of 11.1%. The rises were driven primarily by the sharp increase in the Ofgem energy price cap. Food and restaurant prices were also among items providing a big positive contribution. The annual rate for core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 6.2% from 5.7%. A further significant increase in the energy price cap could push overall inflation to a new high later this year. Inflation figures for April will also be released for the Eurozone and Canada later today. In the case of the Eurozone, they are final readings and are expected to confirm preliminary estimates showing a rise to 7.5% for headline CPI and 3.5% for core CPI excluding food and energy. Despite uncertainties about the economic outlook following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there have been calls from a growing number of ECB policymakers for interest rate ‘lift-off’ in July. In Canada, annual headline CPI inflation is expected to stay at 6.7%, maintaining pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates further. After hiking by 50bp in April to 1%, another half-point increase is widely anticipated in June, with further hikes seen in the second half of the year. The impact of higher interest rates on the US housing sector will be closely watched. Expect this afternoon’s housing starts and building permits data for April to show falls. The Fed’s Harker is scheduled to discuss the economic outlook, with interest rates expected to be raised by 50bp at the next two monetary policy meetings in June and July to bring the upper end of the target range for the fed funds rate to 2%. The big uncertainty is whether rates to have to be increased above ‘neutral’ (estimated to be 2-3%) to slow demand and tame inflation.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400 (216M), 1.0675 (198M), 1.0700 (542M) USD/JPY: 129.25 (325M). EUR/JPY: 136.90 (300M) GBP/USD: 1.2525 (399M) AUD/USD: 0.7300 (270M). USD/CAD: 1.2690-00 (490M) NZD/USD: 0.6700 (329M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD opened +1.1% at 1.0550 after USD & JPY fell and equities soared The mood remained buoyant early Asia and EUR/USD traded up to 1.0564 The USD rebounded as Asian equity rally faded EUR/USD VWAP trending lower Resistance 1.0620 and break would warn momentum is slowing Support seen at 1.0470/50 break would encourage a retest of cycle lowsGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. Cable falls to 1.2464 after UK April CPI comes in slightly below forecast 9.0% YY vs 9.1% forecast, 40-year high, 1.2501 was Asia high 1.2501 highest since May 5 (when GBP slumped on BoE's UK recession warning) 1.2498 was Tuesday's high, after GBP jumped on strong UK jobs/earnings data Offers at 1.25 daily VWAP remains bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 127 Bearish below USD/JPY bid early, off later in non-exciting trade, 129.09-53 EBS range Moving in tandem with moves in US yields, Treasury 10s 2.964-2.992% range Japanese importers, some specs on bid towards 129.00, below Offers noted from 129.50, trail up, some from Japanese exporters Only nearby option expiries of note $325 mln at 129.25 today Support at 129, daily VWAP turning bearish AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opened +0.83% at 0.7029 after USD & JPY fell on risk rally The mood was buoyant early Asia and AUD/USD traded up to 0.7046 It was around 0.7035 when Aus WPI came in just below expectations AUD/USD fell to 0.7010/15 as data cooled expectation of aggressive RBA hikes Support eyed at .6950 Resistance is at the the daily VWAP .7050

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-may-18-2022"
via IFTTT

Private pensions: act early to avoid a big inheritance tax bill

Frozen inheritance-tax thresholds mean HMRC is taking ever more in death duties. But there are steps you can take to avoid it, says David Prosser.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/pensions/604844/private-pensions-act-early-to-avoid-a-big-inheritance-tax-bill
via IFTTT

USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 129.624Pivot: 128.984Support: 128.070Preferred Case:On the H4, with the ACD moving in a bullish momentum, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 128.984 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support is to our 1st resistance at 129.624 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 128.070 where the horizontal swing low support is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
via IFTTT

GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.26296Pivot: 1.23994Support: 1.22793Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku indicator and the recent breakthrough in our descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.23994 where the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support is to our 1st resistance at 1.26296 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.22793 where the horizontal pullback support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
via IFTTT

The $15m violins up for auction

Instruments from Antonio Stradivari and Giuseppe Guarneri – the “da Vincis of violins” – are fetching stellar prices at auction.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-investments/604861/stradivari-and-guarneri-violins-auction
via IFTTT

GBPCHF, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.2445Pivot: 1.23151Support: 1.22736Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.2445 in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci extension from our pivot of 1.23151 in line with our horizontal pullback support. Our bullish bias is further supported by how price recently broke the ascending channel.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break structure and head for the 1st support at 1.22736 in line with the horizontal overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpchf-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
via IFTTT

GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1857.3Pivot: 1834.6Support: 1797.5Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our 1st support at 1797.5 where our horizontal swing low support is at from our pivot at 1834.6 in line with horizontal pullback resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break structure and head for the 1st resistance at 1857.3 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
via IFTTT

Investment Bank Outlook 17-05-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightThe sustained drop in UST yields as well as the prospects of Shanghai re[1]opening had risk on the front foot and the USD on the back foot in Asia. The JPY was also under pressure. Shanghai has recorded three days of no communal infections of Covid which is a hurdle China’s policymakers have suggested in the past has to be cleared before restrictions could be eased. Most Asian bourses and the S&P500 futures index were trading higher at the time of writing. The prospect of Shanghai re-opening led to the AUD being the outperformer in G10 FX in the Asian session and the JPY was the underperformer.AUD: RBA could’ve hiked 40bp The RBA Minutes revealed the Board considered raising rates by 15, 25 or 40bp, but ended up settling for a 25bp hike. The reasoning behind not hiking rates by 15bp was that the RBA thought it important to return to the normal practise of changing rates by 25bp per meeting. The RBA chose not to move by 40bp because the Board reasoned that it reviews policy every month and can continue to raise rates based on new information soon. This sends a relatively hawkish signal and shows that the RBA realises that financial conditions are far too loose for the current state of the economy.The RBA also noted, however, that it will have to closely watch the reaction of household consumption to higher rates and living costs and calibrate policy accordingly. Indeed, we believe (and the RBA does too) the RBA’s neutral cash rate is lower than in previous cycles due to the high levels of debt held by households as well as the higher living costs they face. The RBA will likely raise rates by 25bp at the remainder of its meetings this year to take the cash rate to 2.1% by year-end, which would leave the cash rate in neutral to modestly tightening territory, in our view.USD: bound to bounce? Halfway through Q222 the USD is by far the clear outperformer of the G10 FX space, having especially benefitted from its high-yielding safe-haven combo. USD gains were hardly altered by the release of a surprisingly negative USD GDP print for Q122 (-1.4% QoQ annualised vs 1.0% consensus), as US officials cautioned that such a temporary setback was not representative of the underlying strength of the US economy. Such an assessment and prospects for a sharp rebound this quarter will be put to the test of key US hard data for April today. In particular, US retail sales figures will be closely scrutinised to see how US consumer spending is resisting stickier inflation, while our US economist looks for a milder pick-up in overall sales value than the Bloomberg consensus.GBP: still not working?The GBP has emerged as one of the biggest underperformers so far in May despite the fact that (1) the currency is the biggest short in the G10 FX market at present according to our positioning indicator; and (2) the GBP looks undervalued vs the EUR and USD. The GBP is still seen as an attractive risk aversion and stagflation hedge with FX investors continuing to fret about the impact of the raging cost of living crisis and Brexit on the UK economy. Yesterday, during his trip to Northern Ireland PM Boris Johnson confirmed that his government is planning to introduce legislation that will allow UK ministers to override parts of the Northern Ireland protocol.Today, UK foreign secretary Liz Truss is expected to make a formal statement to that effect as well. That said, the PM also reiterated his call for a continuation of the dialogue with the EU on the protocol and tried to strike a more conciliatory tone. More evidence from here that the UK remains open to further dialogue with the EU should ultimately help ease the worst of the market Brexit fears.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-17-05-2022"
via IFTTT

Market Update – May 17 – More of technicals ?

USD and even more so the Yen struggled as risk appetite returned and safe haven flows abated. RBA minutes point to further tightening ahead. The minutes to the last meeting revealed that policy makers discussed three possible options for the rate hike they delivered, and that while the majority opted for a 25 bp move, they not just considered a smaller 15 bp step, but also the possibility of a 40 bp boost to official rates.UK wage growth tops forecast as labour market tightens. Stock markets oved higher, amid hopes that China’s Covid lockdowns, which have hit demand and output, by have peaked, which helped sentiment to stabilise. Yields backed up 3.3 bp to 2.91%. Oil rebound to $114.96 whilst Gold appreciated to $1830.

• USDIndex dipped at 103.94. – tempering a long rally as investors cashing out.
• Equities – USA30 ultimately finishing with a fractional 0.08% gain, while the USA100 slumped -1.2%, with the USA500 -0.39% in the red. Nikkei and ASX up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively at the close. Hang Seng and CSI 300 gained 2.6% and 1.1% respectively, with a rally in some tech stocks and easing virus jitters helping to underpin a solid rebound.
• Tiger Global Management, Winslow Capital Management, Scopus Asset Management and other hedge funds dumped the entirety of their Netflix shares. The streaming company’s stock price has fallen 69% for the year to date.
• Yields 10-year Treasury rose to 2.9203% compared with its US close of 2.879% on Monday.
• Oil  settle at $114.96 a barrel, a 2.4% gain, as Shanghai achieved the long-awaited milestone of three straight days with no new COVID-19 cases outside quarantine zones, which could lead to the beginning of the lifting of restrictions.
• Gold up to $1830.
• FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.0463, USDJPY lifted to 129.23, Cable spiked to 1.2380.  AUD was supported by the hawkish leaning RBA minutes and the rise in oil prices.

Today – The calendar includes prelim. EU GDP Q1, US Retail Sales, industrial production, business inventories. Fedspeak Tuesday from Chair Powell, Bullard, Harker, Kashkari, Mester, Evans

,

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.91%) Rallied to 1.6057. MAs aligning higher, MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, RSI 74.64, H1 ATR 0.364, Daily ATR 2.063.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /423854/
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, May 17, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, May 17, 2022 Overnight Headlines US Plan To Boost Penalty On Russia, China Export Violations Senate Advances $40Bln Ukraine Aid Bill With Wide Support US Set To Continue Covid Public Health Emergency Past July Shanghai Hit Goal Of Three Days Without Community Cases Japan FinMin Calls Recent Yen Weakness Rapid, Undesirable Poll: ECB To Hike In July, Ditch Negative Rates By September EU’s Borrell: No Oil Embargo Agreements Yet Against Russia BoE’s Bailey: Food Shortages Pose Apocalyptic Inflation Risk UK PM Sees Legislative Solution To Revise Brexit NI Protocol Turkey’s Erdogan Puts Brake On NATO Expansion In Nordics Buffett Buys $3Bln Citi Stake In Value-Hunting Stocks Splurge Chip Giant TSMC Plans Further Price Rises In Inflation WorryThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mostly up this morning with tech stocks seemingly leading the way. Oil prices are close to a two-month high as EU officials continue to discuss a ban on Russian oil. US Federal Reserve policymaker Williams confirmed his support at present for 0.50% rate increases at both of the next two monetary policy meetings. Bank of England Governor Bailey suggested that UK rates may also need to rise further. UK Foreign Secretary Truss will today outline plans to amend the Northern Protocol within the Brexit deal. The Labour party plans to force a House of Commons vote on a withholding tax on oil companies. Just released UK labour market data showed that employment rose by 83k in Q1, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.8%. Meanwhile, headline earnings growth blipped higher to 7.0% y/y from 5.6% previously, although excluding bonuses the increase was more modest. Overall, the data continue to point to the risk of further domestic inflation pressures from a tight labour market. Outside the UK, the second estimate of Eurozone Q1 GDP growth is expected to be unchanged from the first reading at 0.2%, which was down modestly from 0.3% in Q42021. In the US, downside growth risks are still given short shrift despite an unexpected fall in Q1 GDP. That seems to be partly because the data showed solid rises in both consumer spending and investment suggesting that the fundamentals for US growth remain strong despite the risk of households being squeezed by high inflation. Today’s April retail sales and industrial production data are expected to provide further evidence that the growth picture still looks decent. There are a number of central speakers today. In the UK, Bank of England policymaker Cunliffe’s comments will be watched for indications whether he would support a fifth successive interest rate hike at the Monetary Policy Committee’s next update on 16th June. Cunliffe did support the May rate hike but had opposed the previous one in March. Several Federal Reserve policymakers are also scheduled to speak including Fed Chair Powell. FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut NZD/USD: 0.6300 (1.3BLN) EUR/USD: 1.0400 (310M), 1.0415-25 (790M) GBP/USD: 1.2100 (272M), 1.2200 (540M), 1.2250 (395M) 1.2400 (298M), 1.2500 (341M) EUR/GBP: 0.8420-25 (350M), AUD/USD: 0.6650 (346M), 0.6900 (226M), 0.7050 (572M) 0.7150 (252M). AUD/JPY: 90.00 (290M) 0.9340 (294M) USD/CAD: 1.268Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD opened +0.22% at 1.0435 as USD eased against most currencies USD weakened against risk currencies while the EUR/USD was steady It traded in a 1.0429/55 range and is 1.1440/45 into the afternoon EUR/USD VWAP trending lower Resistance 1.0620 and break would warn momentum is slowing Support seen at yesterday's 1.0384 low and break would increase downward pressureGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. +0.1% in a 1.2321-1.2343 range with occasional flurries of interest on D3 UK moving towards trade conflict with EU on N. Ireland protocol PM Johnson's concept of 'sovereignty' potentially very expensive for the UK GBPUSD VWAP remains bearish Long term support at 1.2018, 78.6% 2020-2021 riseUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 127 Bearish below USD/JPY, JPY crosses and especially AUD/JPY see good bounces early USD/JPY from 128.85 EBS early Asia to 129.35, some more to 129.44 in PM Combination of importer demand into Tokyo fix, offshore hedge fund buys Surges in some JPY crosses helped AUD/JPY especially but CAD, MXN too Japan off'l-speak helped, BoJ policy on hold, FX intervention not eyed USD/JPY hedge fund bids still @128.70-80, offers 129.30-50 Many eyeing range-trade for now, 128.50-129.50 or 129.00-130.00AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD up 0.5% in Asia as RBA minutes hint at June rate hike RBA at last shifts to hawkish policy as Q1 inflation surged to 20-year peaks Traders encouraged by fact that central.bank had considered a sharper hike in May Q1 wages data eyed Wed, expected to show annual growth at decade high 2.5% AUD also boosted by news Shanghai targeting June lockdown exit Strong resistance at 0.7048-53, break opens 0.7100; support 0.6960-65,0.6925

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-may-17-2022"
via IFTTT

Melrose Industries: a British manufacturer that is well-placed for recovery

Melrose, the aerospace and automotive manufacturer, has been hit by the pandemic, but the shares are unduly cheap says David J Stevenson.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604843/melrose-industries-a-british-manufacturer-that-is
via IFTTT

Precious Metals Monday 16-05-2022

Metals Under Pressure On MondayIt’s another frustrating Monday morning for gold bulls this week. Both gold and silver remain under firm selling interest as the US Dollar sits just off last week’s highs, which marked the highest DXY prices since 2002. Both gold and silver have been heavy losers over the last two months as a result of the rally in USD. Hawkish Fed expectations and safe-haven demand have seen a flood of demand for USD which looks to remain a key theme in the near-term.On the back of hiking rates by .5% in May, the Fed has signalled that further such hikes are likely needed near-term with the market now pricing in similar moves for June and July. Alongside this, we heard Fed chairman Powell last week opening the door for larger rate hikes saying the Fed stands ready to do more on rates if necessary.USD has been firmly higher amidst this recent uptick in hawkishness from the Fed. However, weakness in risk-markets is also feeding into a higher US Dollar, further weighing on gold and silver prices. Fears of a global downturn, fuelled by higher inflation and tighter monetary policy, is sending equities and commodities prices lower. With investors moving capital into USD as a safety store, gold has been denied its usual safe-haven demand, further weighing on the metals complex.Looking ahead this week, the latest US economic data (retail sales tomorrow) holds the potential to exacerbate this dynamic if weakness is seen. Last week’s consumer sentiment data fell to multi-year lows, in a bad omen for retail activity last month. Should tomorrow’s retail sales data miss forecasts, this will no doubt drive risk sentiment lower near-term, driving USD higher and therefore dragging gold and silver prices lower.Technical ViewsGoldFollowing the latest failure around the bull channel top, gold prices have since sold-off sharply with the market last week breaking down through the rising channel support. With both MACD and RSI bearish here, the focus is on a continued move lower while price holds below the broken channel bottom. Price is now sitting beneath the 1826.71 level, putting focus on a test of 1763.88 next.SilverThe breakdown from the latest failure around the 25.5384 level has seen the market dropping heavily. Price recently broken down through the bullish trend line support and has now broken back inside the bear channel from last year’s highs. With both MACD and RSI bearish, the focus is on a further drop lower towards the 19.5643 level while price holds below the 22.3205 level.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-16-05-2022"
via IFTTT