Share tips of the week – 27 May

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604902/share-tips-of-the-week-27-may
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Investment Bank Outlook 26-05-2022

CIBCKey Headlines Market started with risk-on, lots of happy faces until mid-morning. US$ goes bid,, risk appetite turned negative… why? I think this is relief rally. Risk on at the start but there was no impetus. Australia Q1 capex was very weak. US equity futures are now in red so is Shanghai. My colleague Jacky pointed out that Nasdaq futures lowered after report that Apple will boost pay for workers, which is wage inflation.FX FlowsSpeaking at the parliament committee earlier, RBNZ Governor Orr said monetary conditions need to act to restrain, Kiwi economy is resilient but facing inflation challenge. Government spending puts short-term pressure on inflation, continue to project employment growth. Orr said can’t rule out recession but does not predict one. Orr later spoke on Bloomberg TV, reiterated about inflation expectations and will be watching it closely. All these from RBNZ hardly moved the market. Japanese bought YEN crosses over the Tokyo fix and sent NZ$ towards 0.64995.Decent buying of $YEN and the YEN crosses for the Tokyo fix and it didn’t stop there. $YEN continued to print higher towards 127.58. Risk is being put back on, 10-year UST yields rose, US equity futures gained so did the Japanese equity indices. UST yields led the way, moved lower and so did the $YEN. Strong $YEN bought during the Tokyo noon, no news whatsoever, spot returned to peep at 127.50.AU$¥ was bought for the Tokyo fix, as soon as that was over, the cross reversed back towards 90.20. AU$ also peaked at 0.7110 then backed off onto 0.70-handle. First quarter’s private capex fell 0.3% versus estimates to +1.5%, however firms plan to spend A$130.5bn in 2022/2023 against estimates of A$122.5bn while buildings and structures investments fell 1.7%. Intraday resistance comes in at 0.7147 which is the 38.2% retracement. AU$ call strikes 0.7120-25 for AU$650mio matures today.EUR$ slightly higher from where we took over, initial buying of EUR¥ reversed after the fix, price action was similar in EUR$. We are likely to be stuck in range of 1.0650-1.0750 from here. I read one report from a bank highlighting bear trend started again. The bank recommended going short EUR$ with target below 1.0250. Weak stops from short-term names under the yesterday’s session low. Near €1bn of 1.0600 puts transacted for Tuesday’s expiry. Nothing much maturing today, fair bit of strikes due tomorrow particularly 1.0650 and 1.0635. No ECB speakers today, de Cos will be presenting Bank of Spain annual report to parliament economic affairs commission.$CAD tracked closely to the commodity futures, most metals are weak especially after Chinese Premier Li’s gloomy rhetorical assessment of the lockdown-hit economy and the weakness seen in early indicators for May. In big picture, traders think the $CAD is sitting in range of 1.2650-1.2950. In March retail sales to be published today, consumer spending on services continuing to recover from the pandemic, a flattish trend in retail sales volumes should not be unexpected or a concern for the macro outlook. However, the continued squeeze on household incomes from high inflation could bring weaker goods spending in the second half of the year, particularly as the savings cushion becomes less plump.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-26-05-2022"
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ETHUSD, H1 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Intermediate Resistance: 1988.76 Resistance: 2014.86Pivot: 1927.87Support: 1903.12Preferred Case:Price is moving within the descending trend channel and is approaching pivot level at 1927.87 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci projection and horizontal pullback support. We have a bullish bias that price may bounce off this confluence area and rise to our intermediate overlap resistance at 1988.76 in line with the 38.2% and 23.6% fibonacci retracements, or to our 1st resistance at 2014.86 at the swing high in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Price may break pivot at the horizontal pullback support and drop to 1st support at 1903.12 at the swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h1-or-potential-bullish-momentum"
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EURUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.07635Pivot: 1.06578Support: 1.05852Preferred Case:On the H4, price recently broke the descending trendline and is moving above ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.06578 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection, to our 1st overlap resistance at 1.07635 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Price may break pivot level and drop to 1st horizontal pullback support at 1.05852 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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Market Update – May 26 – FOMC 100bp by July, USD Stable

USD stable today (USDIndex holds 102.00) following FOMC minutes that showed agreement by “most participants” for 50 bp hikes in June & July would be “likely be appropriate”, Stocks had a positive session (NASDAQ +1.50%) and Yields ticked up  as treasuries slipped. Asian markets mixed (Nikkei -0.27%) Shanghai reopening gradually the Port is 95% operational & schools from June 6.

• USDIndex rotates at  102.00 
• Equities – USA500 +37 (0.95%) at 3978, US500FUTS at 3967 now. NVDA +5% at close but missed Earnings -6.82% after hours.
• Yields The 10-year yield edged up to 2.781% and the policy-sensitive two-year yield was flat at 2.502%.  
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil steady after a cautious rally this week back up  to $110, Gold is weaker – broke below $1850, down to  $1846.  
• Bitcoin rotates under $30K – at $29.6k, having touched $28.6k yesterday.
• FX markets – EURUSD up to test 1.0670, breach of 1.0700 limited, USDJPY back over 127.00, at 127.25 Cable up to 1.2550.  

Overnight – RBNZ Orr – will move on rates quickly, JPY PPI beats at 1.7% vs 1.5%, World Bank says Russian invasion of Ukraine could cause “global recession”

Today – US GDP (2nd), US IJC, Canadian Retail Sales, UK Chancellor Sunak, Fed’s Brainard. Earnings from Alibaba, Baidu. Ascension Day holidays – Germany, France, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, & Norway all closed.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.26%) gave up yesterday’s gains and rejected 0.6500. Trades at 0.6440, support 0.6420 & 0.6400. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram turned negative but holds 0 line,  RSI 47 neutral, H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0080.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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from HF Analysis /471465/
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The Crypto Market Is Low, Oil Poised to Jump

Having dropped, the total crypto market cap has reached $1,15 trillion. At that, there was a strong correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock index S&P 500. The market cap has hit a very strong supporting level that has formed last summer. The crypto market is quite low now, and players are trying to buy the dips. Since the US dollar is likely to drop soon, different cryptocurrencies are about to jump. Although their price might also drop even further. The total market value of cryptocurrencies might decline by half from the current one.Gold is undergoing correction. The asset is likely to jump till the downtrend away from which it might potentially reverse and drop. So, it should be worth waiting to see what is about to happen next.Brent oil is testing the level of 115. Should the oil manage to break this level through, it might hit the level of 120.00 first, and then target the level of 138.00 next. Of course, oil might also undergo correction. However, the oil forecast is quite apparent for now due to the global happenings worldwide and current geopolitics.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crypto-market-is-low-oil-poised-to-jump"
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A fund that should give good returns from investing in good deeds

Schroders BSC Social Impact Trust has made a solid start and looks more attractive than it did at launch, says Max King.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604893/a-fund-that-should-give-good-returns-from-investing
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 128.11Pivot: 127.65Support: 127.009Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and the stochastic indicator moving in a downtrend channel, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our 1st support at 127.009 where the overlap support is from our pivot at 127.65 in line with horizontal overlap resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracementAlternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 128.11 where the horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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AUDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72608Pivot: 0.7051Support: 0.69483Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and price breakout from the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.72608 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is from our pivot at 0.7051 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.69483 where the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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Wall Street’s sell-off has further to go

The current stockmarket sell-off has been led by tech stocks, but the pain is spreading. The bear market has further to go – US stocks are still expensive, and investors must be wary of relief rallies.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/us-stockmarkets/604905/wall-streets-sell-off-has-further-to-go
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China’s zero-Covid labyrinth

China’s zero-Covid policy will lead to an “extended period of sub-par growth” as constant lockdowns constrict its economy.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/china-stockmarkets/604903/chinas-zero-covid-labyrinth
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Marks & Spencer shares look cheap – should you buy in?

Marks & Spencer shares have been a disappointment for investors for two decades. But with the company now on something of a comeback, Rupert Hargreaves asks if it is worth buying in.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/retail-stocks/604901/marks-spencer-shares-look-cheap-should-you-buy
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S&P500, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 4301.57Pivot: 4080.88Support: 3812.69Preferred Case:On the H4, with MACD indicating a green bullish area, it supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 4080.88 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance, to our 1st resistance at 4301.57 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Price may reverse and approach 1st support at 3812.69 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and swing low.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p500-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 128.011Pivot: 127.083Support: 126.152Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our 1st support at 126.152 where our horizontal pullback support, 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 100% Fibonacci projection are at froour pivot at 127.083 in line with horizontal overlap resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for the 1st resistance at 128.011 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation25"
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