How the UK has changed in the last 70 years since Queen took the throne

The last 70 years have been eventful and often difficult, but the UK is far wealthier than it was when the Queen took the throne in 1952. Simon Wilson reports.

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Think the oil price is high now? You ain’t seen nothing yet

The oil price has been on a tear in recent months. Dominic Frisby explains why oil in fact is still very cheap relative to other assets.

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Investment Bank Outlook 01-06-2022

CIBCFX FlowsFX price action was rather similar to yesterday, demand for $YEN and the YEN crosses lifted several currency pairs higher. Bit of struggle when $YEN broke above 129.00 and printed 129.15 very quickly, think there were some stops triggered. We do suspect that the firmer US$ could have caused by comments from BoJ Wakatabe that came out first in Japanese. Meanwhile, equity and UST yields have kept the pair firm. First resistance 129.34 then 129.77. Option strikes maturing today are far 127.50/55.Australia’s first quarter GDP came out slightly better than expected, grew 0.8% over the quarter and 3.3% over the year. Our macro strategist Patrick said attributed the data to yesterday’s strong government spending and jump in business inventories. Data failed to boost AU$, it drifted lower on back of US$ strength. There was also small selling of €AU$. Immediate resistance around 0.7200-05, better at 0.7266. There are total of A$1.12bn worth of 0.7171 strikes due today.Forget the ECB speakers, EUR weakened against US$ and AU$. One FX commentator said there are EUR$ bids beneath 1.0710, this was after the 1.0708 was established. I seem to agree about the orders and I do not think they are linked to option gamma play but from real money accounts. Leveraged names have extended their long positions and minimal change from IMM names. Break of 1.0640 could change the story. Topside resistance just ahead of 1.0800.Not much action for $CAD, even though common knowledge BoC will raise rates by 50 bps and to sound hawkish. Overnight reports of some OPEC members exploring the idea of exempting Russia from an oil-supply deal. However, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Met with Saudi counterpart and both praised level of cooperation in OPEC+. Take note of near $1bn of 1.2680 strikes due on Friday.Big day for Canada, actually not really. Everyone expects the BoC to raise rates by 50 bps. Our economics team said the BoC will have to sound hawkish, after all a non-standard 50 bps hike doesn’t come every day, particularly back-to-back. Any admission that the housing market is already responding to higher interest rates should also be seen as an admission that excess demand is about to become less excessive. That is one of the key reasons why we think that, after another 50 bps hike in July, the pace of hikes will slow down, and the Bank won’t need to take rates any higher than the 2.5% mid-point of its neutral band to achieve 2% inflation sometime in 2023.CitiEuropean OpenA deck shuffle after month-end flows appears in play during the first trading day of June as cross-assets moves don’t appear to run along a single thread. USD firmed as Treasury yields drift higher, though US stocks futures are a touch firmer on the day and USDCNH climbs. USDJPY risk reversals continue to gain attention in option space. THB is the worst performer in Asia with current account worsening and fast money chasing the move higher, while TWD unwinds part of the blistering two-day rally. Looking ahead, we note that Fed quantitative tightening is due to commence from June 1 at a monthly pace of USD30bn in Treasuries and USD17.5bn of agency debt and MBS. The US also sees ISM manufacturing data and Fedspeak. EUR will see a series of ECB speak, although given the topics, headline risk remains low. NOK sees DNB/NIMA PMI Manufacturing, while GBP listens to BoE’s Hauser. CAD sees a rate decision today where Citi Economics expects a 50bps hike to 1.5%. Over in EM, we see a flurry of PMI prints. BRL will see trade balance prints, HKD a retail sales print and PEN will see CPI figures.

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AUDUSD, H4 | Potential For Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.72603Pivot: 0.71277Support: 0.70485Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and price moving within the ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.72603 in line with the swing high resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from our pivot at 0.71277 where the overlap support is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.70485 where the horizontal overlap support is.

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USDJPY, H4 | Potential For Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 129.597Pivot: 128.851Support: 128.098Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices breaking above the ichimoku indicator and breakout from descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 128.851 where the horizontal pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are to our 1st resistance at 129.597 in line with the swing high resistance, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projectionAlternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 128.098 where the horizontal overlap support is.

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Market Update – June 01 – European stocks advance despite data

Wall Street was generally lower, but off its worst levels. Bond and stock bears returned refreshed from the Memorial Day holiday and got right to work, pushing Treasury yields higher and Wall Street lower. Treasuries underperformed globally after comments from Fed Governor Waller on Monday where he supported several more 50 bp rate hikes to curb inflation. Additionally, record high Eurozone inflation and hawkish ECB speak from Villeroy and Visco added to the concerns over central bank tightening. US data were mixed with ongoing record strength in home prices but worsening in consumer sentiment. Today, European stock futures are advancing as Bunds move higher at the open, despite the plunge in German retail sales data at the start of the session, which flagged the impact of rising inflation on consumption trends.

Overnight: President Biden stressed he would not interfere with the Fed’s independence, in comments after meeting with Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen. Biden said his plan to address inflation “starts with a simple proposition, respect the Fed’s independence.” He also said Powell has noted he has a “laser focus on addressing inflation.” So as expected this was largely a photo op for the president as he tried to assure that he and Chair Powell are addressing inflation.

• USDIndex at 101.97, after 102.17 highs. The buck found renewed strength after comments from Fed Governor Waller who said on Monday, he favored several more half point rate hikes until the inflation rate is brought back toward the 2% target.
• Equities – The USA30 and USA500 closed down -0.67% and -0.63%, respectively, while the USA100 fell -0.41%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.43% and 0.36%.
• Yields – 10-year rate spiked 13 bps to a high of 2.88%, and the 2-year climbed 10 bps to test 2.58%.
• Oil – USOil drifted to 114.05 from 120.45. Oil prices rallied on the economic hopes and news the EU would ban some Russian imports, but then collapsed into the close on reports OPEC+ was considering exempting Russia from production quotas, thus opening the door for increased output from the likes of Saudi and UAE.
• Bitcoin steady at 31,550.
• FX markets – USDJPY spiked to 129.35, with EURUSD at 1.0716, and GBPUSD has dropped below 1.2600, although Sterling is nudging higher against the EUR.

Today – Eurozone unemployment rate, ECB Lagarde speech, ISM Manufacturing Index & PMI, BOC Rate Decision and Statement and lots of Fed speeches.

Biggest FX Mover @ (08:00 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.70%) broke the 20- and 200-day SMA. Intraday MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line well below 0, RSI 34 but flattening, H1 ATR 3.16, Daily ATR 21.92.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Why the UK's investment prospects are improving

The outlook for the UK has darkened since last year, but the chancellor’s £15bn energy relief packageshould mean recession is avoided, says John Stepek.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 1, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 1, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed’s Bostic Says Didn’t Suggest ‘Fed Put’ With Previous Comments Asia's Factory Activity Slows In May As China Covid Curbs Weigh China Factory Activity Falls At Slower Pace As Covid Curbs Ease Australia’s Solid Economic Momentum Suggests Faster Rate Hikes BoJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe Shows Continued Easing Bias Japan Mfg Conditions Improve At Softest Pace For Three Months Japan’s Businesses Kept Spending Despite Omicron Contraction Korea’s Exports Accelerate, Suggesting Resilient Global Demand Slump In Yuan’s Forward Points Signals Bets For China Easing Bank Of England To Take Rescue Role If Stablecoin Collapses Treasuries Slide As Inflation Concerns Keep Rate-Hike Bets Alive OPEC Weighs Suspending Russia From Oil-Production Deal Global Equities Kick-Start New Month With Indecisive Mood FAA To Keep Tight Watch On Boeing Employees Who Represent Regulators HP Sales, Earnings Beat Estimates Despite ‘Volatile Macro Environment’ Salesforce Beats Quarterly Rev Ests On Strong Demand For SoftwareThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mixed this morning following falls in Europe and the US yesterday. Oil prices have fallen back sharply from Tuesday’s high after reports suggesting that OPEC members will boost production. After a meeting between US President Biden and Federal Reserve head Powell, a White House spokesperson said that they expect progress on lower inflation but the process “may not be linear”. Australian Q1 GDP growth slowed to 0.8% from 3.6% in Q4 2021 reflecting the impacts of floods on the East coast and Omicron. Today’s European data calendar is dominated by manufacturing PMI releases for May. However, most of them are second readings that are not expected to be revised significantly from the original estimates. Those showed larger than expected falls in the headline indices for both the UK and the Eurozone as a whole from their April levels. For the UK, it was reported that supply constraints were still widespread thanks in part to new lockdowns in China. However, new orders have also now almost stalled, possibly signalling a weakening in demand. Similar pressures were also apparent in the Eurozone. In the US, the May ISM manufacturing survey results will be new. The April headline measure fell to its lowest since mid-2020 reflecting ongoing concerns about supply but also signs that demand is weakening as orders slipped to their lowest since the early stages of the pandemic. More positively, the readings are still firmly in growth territory. Expect a further small decline for May. The Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates at today’s policy update by 50 basis points for the second successive time. That would be the third hike this year from a low of 0.25%, taking its policy rate to 1.50%. It is also expected to follow this up with another 50bp increase in July and further moves before year end. However, despite these actions, the BoC is coming under political fire at home over its inflation-fighting credibility. While UK markets are closed for the rest of the week, those elsewhere are open. Possibly the most significant economic release is likely to be Friday’s US labour market report which, as always, will be seen as a key bellwether of conditions. Look for another solid rise in nonfarm payrolls of 400k in May and for the unemployment rate to fall back to its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. Also look for average earnings growth to edge down for a second month to 5.4%. There are some suggestions that wage growth may have peaked, although we would caution that the labour market remains tight.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0600 (380M), 1.0640-50 (1.0BLN), 1.0700 (354M) 1.0740-50 (1.26BLN), 1.0760 (848M), 1.0770-75 (1.18BLN) 1.0790-00 (1.0BLN). EUR/CHF: 1.0150 (255M) USD/JPY: 127.25 (230M), 127.50-55 (1.27BLN), 128.00 (235M) AUD/USD: 0.7170-75 (1.29BLN), 0.7190 (272M) NZD/USD: 0.6460-65 (493M), 0.6620 (725M) AUD/NZD: 1.0760-70 (1.87BLN) USD/CAD: 1.2465 (600M), 1.2650-60 (755M), 1.2700 (751M) USD/ZAR: 15.5700 (500M), 15.6400 (730M) EUR/SEK 10.4600 (717M), 10.4900 (1.08BLN), 10.5600 (729M) EUR/NOK: 10.20 (626M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD opened -0.45% at 1.0734 after USD broadly firmed into month-end After trading 1.1737 it moved lower when USD/JPY popped higher into the fix EUR/USD traded to 1.0709 before settling around 1.0720 late morning Sentiment is mixed after key resistance at 1.0787 held on Monday Repeated fails ahead of 1.0790 may discourage EUR/USD longs EUR/USD VWAP has turned bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. Off 0.05% in a tight 1.2590-1.2616 range with light interest on D3 Inflation pressures, slowing growth Difficult scenario for the BoE to avoid a recession own the line Long Jubilee weekend will likely see risk appetite and USD drive sterling Techs; momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages climb VWAP bands expand - charts suggest the top is the weak side Friday's 1.2666 May high then 1.2727 50% of 2022 fall first resistance Daily VWAP has turned bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 127 Bearish below USD/JPY as high as 129.29 EBS in Asia PM trading, early low 128.65 Pair shows no signs of any meaningful push-back, demand strong, on-going Japanese importers, some investors good buyers early, specs join later Recent short likely being forced to cover, bank recommendations to go long Firmer US yields supportive, Treasury 10s @2.862%, high o/n 2.884% BoJ easy policy stance too, reiterated by DepGov today Tokyo risk on, JPY crosses mostly up legs, Nikkei +0.65% @27,457 Daily VWAP is bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opened -0.25% at 0.7178 after whippy US session It moved up to 0.7195 early when Tokyo bought AUD/JPY for the fix The better than expected Q1 Aus GDP didn't have any impact of note AUD/USD traded to 0.7172 before settling around 0.7185 into the afternoon Sellers around 0.7200 cap - with resistance at 0.7230 Support has formed around 0.7150 with more at 0.7122 A break below 0.7120 eases upward pressure and put trend higher in doubt Daily VWAP has turned bullish but not positively oriented

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Dollar Takes the Offensive as Investors Disappointed by EU Inflation Data

EU leaders were able to agree on a sixth package of sanctions last night that would include an embargo on Russian oil, excluding pipeline supplies to landlocked countries. The decision to hit Russia's export revenues will have a high cost in potentially higher inflation and lower EU growth. The ECB's search for a compromise between real output and inflation should remain the key determinant of the short-term movements of the Euro.The dollar managed to find support on the last day of May. U.S. bond yields have picked up again in what looks like a belated reaction to a series of pro-inflation data and events in recent days, namely strong U.S. consumption data released last Friday, Fed official Waller's hawkish comments pointing at the Fed’s confidence in tightening ("households’ balance sheets are in great shape"), as well as the oil rally. The reason why the dollar makes slow progress higher is that bond yields outside of the US are rising as well. On Monday, investors cut exposure in European bonds as the German inflation report showed that consumer price growth reached a new high of the current business cycle - 7.9%:At the same time, monthly inflation accelerated to 0.9%, almost doubling the forecast. EU data published today showed that inflation also exceeded the forecast and amounted to 8.1% against the forecast of 7.7%, actually matching the inflation rate in the US. Investors reacted negatively to the data as the risks that the ECB's policy will lead the economy into stagflation have increased. The euro and pound sterling lost about half a percent against greenback, with the risk of a strong NFP report on Friday, putting an end to rumors about Fed’s “September pause” in hiking rates, likely leading to a deeper decline. The targets for EURUSD are the levels 1.07 and 1.064:GBPUSD is likely to look for support at 1.25, the previous horizontal level where significant support was consolidated:

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BTCUSD – Hits two-week high above 32k

BTCUSD, Day

Cryptocurrencies have taken a dip this week, with BTCUSD hitting a new two-week high of $32,228 after ignoring the strong rally in the stock market last week prompted by the clarity in the minutes of the FOMC meeting and the easing of the lockdown measures in major Chinese cities, which will allow production to resume and could see consumer spending skyrocket.

As for yesterday’s movement, BTCUSD closed up more than 8%, ETHUSD 10% and XRPUSD gained more than 7%.  The rise this week and a break of the two-week $30,000 zone seems to mark the end of the bottom of the Bitcoin price. However, in the technical overview the price is still stuck in the downtrend channel frame. This is consistent with the movement of indicators like the MACD, which is still significantly below the 0 line, and the RSI, which is below the 50 level. And as seen in the Day timeframe, Bitcoin may be forming a strong pattern. If the price fails to break above the $33,000 zone, we may see the price swing back down again and continue the bearish flag. There is significant support in the low zone at $26,600. Conversely, if the price is able to rise above $33,000, there will be the next resistance around the $40,000 figure.

Traders will be keeping an eye on the movement of the US stock market as it returns from a long weekend. Will it be able to maintain the uptrend momentum from last week?

Click to view  economic calendar 

Chayut Vachirathanakit

Market Analyst

Warning: This content is provided for general marketing communications. For informational purposes only. and is not considered independent investment research. No part of this communication consists of or should be considered to contain investment advice or investment solicitation or solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling any financial instrument All information is collected from reliable sources. And every data contains an indicator of past performance. It is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Users should be aware that any investment In leveraged products, there is some degree of uncertainty. And investments like this are associated with high risks. for which the user is solely responsible We are not responsible for any loss. arising from the investment using the information generated by this communication This communication must not be reproduced or redistributed. without our written permission.

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USDJPY, H4 | Potential For Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 128.843Pivot: 127.896Support: 127.15Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices breaking above the ichimoku indicator and breakout from descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 127.896 where the horizontal overlap resistance is to our 1st resistance at 128.843 in line with the swing high resistance, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 127.15 where the horizontal overlap support is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1867.4Pivot: 1839.8Support: 1830.8Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and breakout from descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1839.8 where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are to our 1st resistance at 1867.4 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance,61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1830.8 where the horizontal overlap support is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation31"
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Market Update – May 31

Stock markets traded mixed. Overnight Chinese data showed a slowdown in the pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector. Beijing’s new policy support, which includes cash handouts for hiring graduates and support for internet companies’ offshore listings, supported the sentiment a bit. In the rest of the world though, inflation jitters returned and yields spiked, with Australia’s 10-year up 8.5 bp and the German Bund yield lifting 1.0 bp to 1.06%. US Dollar stabilized as Treasury yields spiked.

European open:  Swiss economy stronger than expected at the start of the year. Official GDP numbers beat expectations and showed a quarterly growth rate of 0.5% q/q up from 0.3% q/q in Q4 last year. Services were still held back at the start of the quarter by virus restrictions, and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine won’t show in these numbers yet. SNB head Jordan warned that the fallout from the war and sanctions against Russia could mean stagflation risks globally, but still, with these numbers, the SNB’s negative interest rate environment will also be challenged.

• USDIndex recovered slightly to 101.79.
• Equities – Nikkei and ASX meanwhile closed with losses of -0.3% and -1.0% respectively as inflation jitters returned and yields spiked. GER40 and UK100 up 0.9% and 0.4%.
• Yields – US 10-year rate has jumped 9.4 bp to 2.83% as markets return from yesterday’s holiday.
• Oil – USOil spiked to $119.20 per barrel as demand expectations pick up and EU leaders agreed a partial ban on Russian oil.
• Bitcoin extended gains above 20-day SMA for the first time since April 7.
• FX markets – USDJPY lifted to 127.33, EURUSD down to 1.0734, Cable below the 1.26 mark.

Today – GDP from Switzerland and Canada for Q1, German unemployment, Eurozone HICP. US housing index, Chicago index and Consumer Confidence. The Biden-Powell meeting is also on tap.

Biggest FX Mover @ (08:00 GMT) EURUSD (-0.39%) declined to 1.0730 due to USD strength. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram zeroed, RSI 35 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00117, Daily ATR 0.00942.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

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Investment Bank Outlook 31-05-2022

CIBCFX FlowsDeputy Governor Hawkesby said RBNZ is forecasting a period of subdued consumption as higher rates impact some households, given that global and domestic risks, a recession is well within the realms of possibility. He added the economy is well placed to cope with high interest rates. New Zealand’s building permits fell to -8.5% from +6.2%, this is a volatile number but not market mover. NZ$ was bought at the beginning for NZ$¥. NZIER said RBNZ will raise OCR by 50 bps in July. However, things turned when US$ was bought across the board. Business confidence continue to decline in May to -55.6 while activity slumped to -4.7. NZ$ was pushed to 0.6525.Our macro strategist Patrick said his preference is to sell into any NZ$ rally with stop above 0.6625, the 50% retracement of the 0.6217-0.7034.Discussion within the desk, our trader Jon believes the RBA will be less aggressive than the RBNZ when comes to rate hikes. He prefers to short AU$NZ$. Spread between the 2-year AU-NZ yields also suggesting lower cross. Fade the rally to 1.1014 with stop above 1.1070.AU$ rose to 0.7103 after the Tokyo open then declined to 0.7163. China’s PMIs improved in May and this boosted the AU$ and the crosses. Good resistance around 0.7200-05 area, furthermore Death Cross developed in the daily chart. The only notable option strike is at 0.7171 for A$1.12bn due tomorrow.Month-end and the Japanese bought $YEN and the YEN crosses, only selling came from the retail day traders, who were taking profit. One US bank issued a note today that US$ has turned and exited its short $YEN position. They could be right because the momentum has been consistent past week, $1.2bn of options strikes at 127.50-55 due tomorrow should offer some support.European leaders have agreed to partial ban on Russian oil, sanctions would forbid the purchase of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia delivered to member states by sea but include a temporary exemption for pipeline crude. This covers more than 2/3 of oil imports from Russia. EUR$ backed off on back of stronger US$. Trendline resistance at 1.0799, likely to see some sellers emerge and stops 1.0855 thereafter. There are fair amount of downside strikes due today to take note of. Although distant, they are quite sizeable. More than €8.1bn worth of strikes 1.0590-1.0600.Oil futures are up but the greenback rules over the Loonie. Initial purchase of CAD¥ pressured the $CAD to 1.2653. Once that was done, the pair reversed back towards 1.2680s. Our macro strategist Bipan said the move below the 1.2700 handle suggests that we need to relax our call for a move to the 1.33 area for now. We still see price action resolving higher and above 1.30 over time, but we’ll need to be patient with that view. In the near-term, we expect levels to gyrate between 1.25 and 1.30. Also, the lack of an immediate catalyst this week suggests that the risk/reward in receiving OIS for BoC dates isn’t there. While we think terminal will reprice lower, and the Bank won’t go as aggressive as the market is pricing, we don’t envisage that to be the message at this week’s BoC.

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