Recession talk is a red herring – here’s what investors should focus on instead

There is a lot of talk of impending recession. But that’s not something you should worry too much about, says John Stepek. What’s more important is that the world is changing – and you need to change the way you invest.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/604938/forget-recession-talk-change-how-you-invest
via IFTTT

DJI! US30USD, H4 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 33432.7Pivot: 32615.21Support: 31924.46Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 32615.21 where the horizontal overlap support is to our 1st resistance at 33432.7 in line with the swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 31924.46 where the pullback support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dji-us30usd-h4-or-potential-bullish-momentum6"
via IFTTT

GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1.26603Pivot: 1.24587Support: 1.21639Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will break the support structure at the pivot and drop from our pivot at 1.24587 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 1.21639 at the swing low.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may bounce off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 1.26603 in line with the 50% fibonaci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpusd-h4-or-potential-bearish-momentum"
via IFTTT

ASX, H4 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 7300.27Pivot: 7192.63Support: 7104.65Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot level at 7192.63 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 7300.27 in line with the swing highAlternative Scenario:Price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 7104.65 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/asx-h4-or-potential-bullish-momentum"
via IFTTT

Tesla: News of Job Cuts Triggered Shares Sell-Off.

Elon Musk, CEO of the electric vehicle behemoth Tesla, has recently been reported of possible headcount trimming by 10%, following uncertainty over economic outlook. That would account for an approximate 10,0000 employees to be laid off.

Earlier, there was news that Musk stated in his email “to pause all hiring worldwide”. He has also demanded employees “to return to office or leave”, in the midst of resurgence of Covid-19 in California, in which one of its most advanced automotive plants is located. The threat of virus has been significantly reduced, however, it is also an undeniable fact that return-to-office resistance is real.

Fig. 1: Number of Tesla Vehicles Delivered Worldwide. Source: Statista.

The company has delivered more than 300,000 units of vehicles during Q1 2022, up 68% from the same period last year. Despite the increasing R&D cost incurred, total revenue of the company stood at $18.7B, up 81% from the same period a year ago. About 90% of the revenue contributed by vehicle sales, whereas the rest 10% contributed by energy-related services and insurance services. The latter saw an increase in revenue by 24.7% and 43.23% respectively from prior year ago. EPS were reported at $3.22, over market consensus by more than 40%.

Be it a major staff cut, or voluntary resignation due to displeasure over Musk’s return to office plan, coupled with ongoing supply chain issues, increasing competition and rising costs following inflationary pressures – these factors would serve as headwinds to Tesla’s development in near term. Could Tesla produce over 1.5 million vehicles by the end of this year? That remains a question.

Technical Analysis:

Throughout the first half of 2022, #Tesla share price was traded in a downtrend, in the form of ABCD structure. The company share price saw its highest point in the beginning of January, at $1207.88 (point A), before retracing to a lower point at $710 (point B) in late February. Its share price found support and rebounded, forming a lower high at $1152.64 (point C), before retracing again and formed a lower low at $620.55 (point D). In near term, the company share price remains directionless as it consolidated between $786.50 (FR 50.0% extended from lower leg seen in September 2020 to the highest point seen in November 2021), the minor support $678.72 (FR 61.8%) and the lowest point seen on 24^th May, $620.55. To trade higher, the asset price must break above $786.50 and the upper line of descending wedge, towards the next resistance target at $894 (or the 100-day SMA) and $1028. Otherwise, a strong bearish candlestick close below the minor support, $620.55 and the lower line of descending wedge may indicate bearish possibility for the price to test the next support at $525 (FR 78.6%), $450 and $330.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Malaysia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /474945/
via IFTTT

Market Update – June 6 – USD & Stocks steady but inflation worries still loom

USD remained steady (USDIndex 102.10) Stocks recover a tad from Friday’s post NFP sell off (NASDAQ -2.47%) and Yields also hold onto gains (2.957%). Asian markets mixed in thin trading today (AUD & NZD closed along with many EZ countries). Central bank outlooks, China’s virus lockdowns and inflation data remain in focus – NFP showed a tight jobs market and Earnings holding up, so FEB may need to act again in September,  Saudi Arabia have increased oil prices & US will allow 2 companies to import Venezuelan oil into Europe. MUSK predicted a gloomy US economy (following Dimon’s comments) and suggested TESLA needed to shrink its workforce by 10% (only to then withdraw the comment), US to pause, for 24mths, tariffs on Solar Panel imports,  Kuroda “Japan will not tighten monetary policy”.

• USDIndex rallied to 102.25, Back to 102.00 now.
• Equities – USA500 -68 (–1.63%) at 4108, US500FUTS at 4131 now. Worries about a more aggressive FEd during the Autumn weighed on stocks.
• Yields 10-year yield higher (2.957% at close), trades at  2.950% now.   
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $120.86 following Saudi news before slipping under $120, Gold sank from over $1874 on Friday to $1852 now.   
• Bitcoin rallied from under $30K on Friday to trade at $31.2K now.
• FX markets – EURUSD under 1.0725 again, USDJPY tested 131.00 brand holds   130.50, Cable trades over 1.2500, rumours of no confidence vote in Johnson this week. 

Overnight –  CNY Caixin Services PMI missed significantly 41.4 vs. 46.1.

Today – a light calendar with Holiday Closures in many parts of Europe and no econ. news scheduled for NA session. All eyes on RBA, ECB & US CPI data later this week. 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (-0.44%).  MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & breaks 0 line, RSI 65 & rising,   H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0050.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distribution.

from HF Analysis /474930/
via IFTTT

EUR/USD Forecast: Potential Drop Ahead?

As it can be seen from the daily time frame, the price of the EUR/USD pair has approached the key levels such as a local downtrend (the points 1 and 2), horizontal resistance level of 1.0800, and 50% Fibonacci level expanded along the latest descending move (the level of 1.0770). Also, the asset’s price is located below the middle point of the weekly downtrend denoted on the chart by the dashed line. It seems that the currency pair might drop next week.The price of Ethereum keeps testing a very strong psychological supporting level of 1700. Should Ethereum manage to break this level, it might drop. Currently, the asset is likely to jump, targeting the level of 3000.The U.S. Dollar Index is undergoing correction, but it is likely to retest the resistance area formed between the levels 104 and 105 and drop.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eur-usd-forecast-potential-drop-ahead"
via IFTTT

Why the outlook for emerging markets is improving after years of underperformance

Emerging markets have underperformed over the past decade. Alex Rankine explains what the outlook is.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/604925/why-emerging-markets-have-had-a-long-bout-of-underperformance
via IFTTT

Key Economic Events and Reports for the Week Ahead

Несмотря на слабые данные ADP, отчет по рынку труда в США в пятницу не подтвердил опасения рынка, что экономика США начала прогибаться под гнетом инфляции. Рост рабочих мест составил 390К и превысил прогноз, оплата труда тем не менее замедлилась до 0.3% (прогноз 0.4%). Фондовые рынки тем не менее отреагировали негативно, так как отчет NFP не дал ходу сомнения, что ФРС ослабит риторику или сбавит темпы ужесточения политики.Данные по инфляции в Еврозоне показали, что темп рост потребительских цен продолжил расти, причем опережая прогнозы. Рынки пересмотрели темп и начало ужесточения политики ЕЦБ и теперь ожидают, что ставка будет повышена на 50 б.п. до октября этого года. С учетом этих ожиданий, заседание ЕЦБ на следующей неделе в четверг может иметь позитивное влияние для стоимости Евро, так как скорей всего будут озвучены решительные меры по борьбе с инфляцией. Весь вопрос в том, что ЕЦБ посчитает пределом, ведь экономике нужны мягкие кредитные условия, иначе стагфляции не избежать.РБА будет принимать решение по процентной ставке в следующей вторник. Также ожидается бычий сюрприз для австралийского доллара. Он, как и другие товарные валюты вероятно будет показывать опережающую доходность на следующей неделе, так как ажиотаж на товарных рынках сохраняется.Отчет по инфляции в США (CPI) будет опубликован в следующий четверг и отсутствие признаков ослабления инфляции может легко запустить новый виток снижения на фондовом рынке США.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-economic-events-and-reports-for-the-week-ahead-05062022"
via IFTTT

How small businesses can prevent trademark disputes

Thorough research could save you the headache of a trademark dispute, says David Prosser.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/small-business/604932/how-small-businesses-can-prevent-trademark-disputes
via IFTTT

Why pet ownership is set to increase

Pets at Home is a cheap way to play a long-term trend in pet ownership.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/604929/why-pet-ownership-is-set-to-increase
via IFTTT

ECB Moves Closer to Hike Interest Rate as Fears of Runaway Inflation Mount

Market confidence in aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank has increased sharply this week. As early as Thursday, the market expected that the ECB will increase interest rate by 50 bp by the end of this year, however already on Friday, interest rate futures priced that the rate hike will occur before October.The next meeting of the ECB will take place on 9 June.In May, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde signaled that she would not rule out raising the deposit rate, currently at minus 0.5%, to zero by the end of September amid record high inflation.Consumer prices in the euro area in May increased at a record pace - by 8.1% in annual terms.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ecb-moves-coser-to-hike-interest-rate-as-fears-of-runaway-inflation-mount"
via IFTTT

Three high quality companies to consider

A professional investor tells us where he’d put his money. This week: Christopher Rossbach, J. Stern & Co, picks three high-quality companies.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604930/three-high-quality-companies-to-consider
via IFTTT

Why to avoid growth traps

When high-growth stocks stumble, the market reaction can be brutal. And there’s plenty more to come, says John Stepek.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/growth-investing/604934/why-to-avoid-growth-traps
via IFTTT