SILVER FUTURES (SILVER1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 62338Pivot: 61354Support: 60446Preferred Case:On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and has broken out from descending trendline which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 61354 where the swing low support is to the 1st resistance at 62338 in line with the swing high resistance,100% fibonacci projection , 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 60446 in line with the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on silver .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/silver-futures-silver1-h1-potential-for-bullish-momentum17"
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PLATINUM FUTURES (PL1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 974.7Pivot: 941.5Support: 919.7Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 941.5 in line with the overlap support and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to 1st resistance at 974.7 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 919.7 where the swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on platinum .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/platinum-futures-pl1-h1-potential-for-bullish-rise17"
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Market Spotlight: GBPJPY Upside Opportunities On BOE

The British Pound has been back in demand today following yesterday’s hawkish BOE meeting. While the central bank stuck to the signalled .25% hike, refraining from a larger .5% increase, the bank signalled that further tightening was likely coming in August. Indeed, with inflation at record highs, the BOE signalled that further tightening might be necessary. On the back of the meeting, the rates market is now pricing in a larger .5% hike in August, at which point the BOE will update its economic forecasts. Looking further out, markets are anticipating further hikes with rates projected to end the year atop 3%.Upside risks in the outlook are clear, with the BOE noting that it “would be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and would if necessary, act forcefully in response.” Given the softer rate hike at this juncture, traders now anticipate that the BOE will need to keep hiking throughout the remainder of the year in order to tame inflation.Technical ViewsGBPJPYThe correction lower from the 163.18 level has seen GBPJPY finding solid demand at the 159.98 level and turning higher once again. With the retail market around 70% short there is plenty of room for GBPJPY to continue higher here. 168.39 is the key upside level for bulls to watch, should price break above there 175.01 is the target.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gbpjpy-upside-opportunities-on-boe"
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Investment Bank Outlook 17-06-2022

CIBCFX FlowsA messy session for the Japanese YEN. $YEN rallied ahead of BoJ announcement. One newswire reported strong onshore demand partly linked to the Tokyo fix. BoJ left everything unchanged, repeated to keep buying 10-year JGB at 0.25% every business day. $YEN jumped to 134.64! One headline that BoJ said is need to pay attention to currencies and markets. Then $YEN fell to 132.42! What was that? No one knows, could that have been a price check? The swing has left many wounded. Yesterday’s low was 131.50, there is a support line at 131.35. Strikes at 134.00 will come into play next few days.EUR$ traded lower as the $YEN advanced. Intraday resistance comes in at 1.0615. Bids should appear near 1.0500 where option strike due today for €1.3bn. Story in the Financial Times that the German Finance Minister Christian Lindner has challenged ECB President over bond market fragmentation, said he did not see any particular hazards.Commodity currencies were left one the side line today. Overall these currencies were weaker against the US$ amid higher $YEN. Large strike in AU$ at 0.7000 dues next week total A$1.7bn.CitiEuropean OpenThe BoJ surprised markets by holding all policy settings unchanged and maintaining 10y bond purchases at 0.25%. This sent USDJPY sharply higher with markets expecting some form of change from the BoJ, with the immediate aftermath seeing immense volatility. Dollar found a bid in Asia, while GBP and SNB, which saw rate decisions yesterday losing some ground. Treasury yields popped higher. Aussie rates markets saw a bear steepening move after one buyer takes down the whole 10y auction. US stock futures bounced slightly higher after yesterday’s losses as well.Looking ahead, all eyes are on BoJ Governor Kuroda’s presser at 07:30 BST as traders look for guidance on policy. GBP sees retail sales data while USD will await Powell’s second appearance of the week.Lastly, we flag that the US and Columbia will be on holiday on Monday.What happened in markets?FX: JPY is down sharply at -1.37%, on the back of the dovish BoJ decision, which we detail below. Dollar found a bid after the NY session’s sell off, with BBDXY up 0.45%. GBP, CHF and AUD were down 0.45%, 0.34% and 0.33% respectively.Stocks also reversed their decline in Asia, with Nasdaq100 futures up 1% and S&P eminis up 0.89%.Rates: UST yields have popped higher by 5-6bps across the curve. Our trader Hideyuki Liu notes that treasuries were mostly well behaved for much of today's Tokyo session, with the market heading towards the London open near the highs as BOJ decided to make no changes to its policy in today's much-watched meeting. As such, JGBs have rallied in the afternoon and have helped sustain a bid in treasuries too. Flows have seen better selling on net, though activity has been reduced relative to the other days this week.BoJ’s decisionThe BoJ disappointed today by keeping all policy settings unchanged. Key points, courtesy of CitiFX Wire’s Stephen Spratt:–The vote on yield curve control vote is 8-1 (same as in April)–Policy balance rate is held at -0.1%–Maintain language that 10y yields will remain around 0%–Sticks with daily purchases of 10y at 0.25%–The statement also adds a rare mention on currencies stating “it is necessary to pay attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s activity and prices”.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-17-06-2022"
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Why we need to get a grip on our government

Our government is trying to do too much, enacting policies that are destructive to the private sector. It needs to drop the the feel-good nonsense and create policies that lead to long-term wealth, says Merryn Somerset Webb.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/604996/why-we-need-to-get-a-grip-on-our-government
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RICE FUTURES (ZR1!), H1 Potential For Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 16.715Pivot: 16.570Support: 16.105Preferred Case:On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise to and drop from our pivot at 16.570 in line with the swing high resistance to the 1st support at 16.105 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 16.715 in line with the overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for rice.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/rice-futures-zr1-h1-potential-for-bearish-momentum16"
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The Fed really is fighting inflation – so don’t expect an early end to the bear market

In an attempt to contain raging inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised US interest rates by 0.75 percentage points. And it’s going to keep on raising them till something breaks, says John Stepek.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/604997/federal-reserve-interest-rate-rise
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Market Spotlight: CHF Soars On Surprise SNB Hike

SNB SurpriseThe Swiss Franc has exploded higher today following a shock rate hike from the SNB. The market was widely expecting the SNB to leave rates at -0.75%, the lowest in the world. However, the bank joined the growing tide of central banks tightening their monetary policy by announcing a .5% hike at its June meeting today.The SNB cited the need to tame soaring inflation as the main driver behind the move and warned that further tightening might be necessary. The bank also lifted its inflation forecasts, now projecting year end inflation to hit 2.8% in 2022 and 1.9% in 2023.Looking ahead, the SNB noted “It cannot be ruled out that further increases in the SNB policy rate will be necessary in the foreseeable future to stabilize inflation.”The move is noteworthy as the SNB’s policy usually tends to follow that of the ECB. However, in hiking rates today, the SNB has front-run the projected ECB rate hike coming in July. Interestingly, also, the SNB made no reference to the strength of CHF which is typically a key focus point of the bank’s communications. With this in mind, traders are now anticipating further hikes from the SNB in the near-future.Technical ViewsEURCHFThe rally in CHF today has seen EURCHF plummeting lower. Price has broken through the 1.03330 and the rising trend line from year-to-date lows. Price is now sitting on support at the 1.0199 level and, with both MACD and RSI bearish, the focus is on a further push lower with 1.0015 the bigger downside target for bears.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-chf-soars-on-surprise-snb-hike"
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COPPER1!, H4 Potential For Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 768.05Pivot: 760.90Support: 738.5Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 760.90 in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 738.5 in line with the horizontal swing low.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise from the pivot to the overlap resistance at 768.05 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:No major news

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper1-h4-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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SOYBEAN (ZS1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 1718'6Pivot: 1707'6 Support: 1661'2Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and price recently breaking the ascending trend channel, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1707'6 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement , 78.6% fibonacci projection and overlap resistance to the 1st support at 1661'2 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may bounce off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 1718'6 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and pullback resistance.Fundamentals:Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean . (edited)

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-zs1-h4-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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WTIUSD, H4 Potential For Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 11928.0Pivot: 11449.6Support: 10545.4Preferred Case:On the H4, with price recently breaking the ascending trend channel and moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 11449.6 in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 10545.4 in line with the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 11928.0 in line with the pullback resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:No major news

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/wtiusd-h4-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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Chinese stocks rally as crackdowns ease

China’s CSI 300 benchmark stockmarket index has rallied 13% since a low early last month as conditions improve for investors.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/china-stockmarkets/604988/chinese-stocks-rally-as-crackdowns-ease
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US Data Ahead of Possible 75 bp from FOMC later

EURUSD,H1

The FOMC began its meeting and will announce its decision and ist new forecasts (SEP) at 18.00 GMT. Chair Powell will follow with his press conference at 18:30 GMT.

The markets now expect a 75 bp hike, and with some risk of a full 1 point boost. The markets are priced for two 75 bp increases, one each, in June and July and a total of 275 bps of hikes between now and year end, with a 3.5% to 3.75% funds rate band to end 2022. All eyes will be on the dot plot for what it shows in terms of the policy path and the terminal rate.

Expectations are for  big downward revisions to growth and huge upward boosts to the PCE chain prices.

Today’s data has not helped the mood music. US Retail Sales swings of -0.3% for the headline and 0.5% ex-autos followed downward revisions that left a much weaker trajectory than had been assumed for retail sales. The headline sales drop defied the lift from big price gains, leaving a weak “real” path for sales. Expectations are for a Q1 GDP growth boost to -1.1% from -1.5% in the last report. We assume a -$3 bln trimming in goods consumption that joins a -$8 bln adjustment for service consumption. The weak retail sales data, and surprisingly robust 2.8% surge for export prices despite a restrained 0.6% import price gain, prompted us to lower our Q2 GDP growth estimate to 2.8% from 3.5%, with 3.2% (was 3.5%) consumption growth after an estimated 2.8% (was 3.1%) Q1 rate.

The May US export price surge of 2.8% alongside a lean 0.6% import price rise followed temporary restraint for both indexes in April. The gains fell short of the outsized March gains of a record-high 4.2% (was 4.1%) for exports and an 11-year high of 3.0% (was 2.9%) for imports. May core trade prices posted surprising -0.3% declines for both exports and imports, though soaring petroleum and food prices lifted the headline. We’ve more generally seen a robust trade price trajectory since 2020, with bigger upside price surprises for exports than imports. Energy prices climbed further in June, and expectations are for  big June gains for the y/y trade price measures that will take the export y/y gauge to another new record high of 19.2%, following today’s record-high of 18.9%. Going forward, a surging Dollar may take some of the froth off these otherwise enormous trade price gains.

The US Empire State manufacturing index bounced 10.4 points to -1.2 in June after plunging -36.2 points to –11.6 in May. It was at a 22-month nadir of -11.8 in March, and an all-time high of 43.0 in July. The index was at 17.4 last June.

The USDIndex has recovered 105.00 from 104.50 earlier and trades at 105.15, EURUSD is back to test 1.0400 and USDJPY bounces from 134.50. Standby for 18:30 GMT. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /478368/
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Harry Potter publisher Bloomsbury should ride out the economic storm

Bloomsbury – publisher of the Harry Potter books – saw sales boom during lockdown, and it expects to ride out the cost of living crisis too. Rupert Hargreaves delves into the figures.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/uk-stockmarkets/604989/harry-potter-publisher-bloomsbury-should-ride-out
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