Chris Xu: the retailer with a cult following

Chris Xu was born to poor farmers in the Shandong province of China. Today he leads a mysterious upstart that is unnerving established fast-fashion retailers. What’s his secret?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/604995/chris-xu-the-retailer-with-a-cult-following
via IFTTT

Three UK stocks for long-term quality growth

Professional investor James Harries of the Troy Income & Growth Trust highlights three high-quality companies that should grow their dividends.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604985/three-uk-stocks-for-long-term-quality-growth
via IFTTT

FED Goes all-in to Fight Inflation and Markets are yet to Grasp this Shift in the Policy Stance

The tectonic shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy, according to which the regulator no longer expects that inflation will naturally find its way to the target level and goes all in to suppress it, is still being digested by financial markets. Risk demand recovers slowly, despite the fact that last week's drop largely removed overbought, European and Asian equity indexes show mixed performance today with gains barely exceeding half a percent. Powell's testimonial is due this week, which will likely be used by the Fed chair to shape correct expectations for the July meeting and he will most likely pitch discussion to explain why another 75 bp move may be needed. Consequently, bullish surprises for the dollar seem to be not over, and any pullbacks in the Dollar index are not expected to linger. EURUSD is likely to find support at 1.04-1.0450, but the risk of a breakout below the near-term support zone is not negligible:Stock indices sluggishly rise on Monday, US markets are closed due to the national holiday. One gets the feeling that investors have not yet fully realized the large-scale changes in the policy of the Fed. Last Wednesday, the regulator hiked interest rate and did not rule out that in July it could raise the rate at the same pace, but by the beginning of this week it became clear that such a scenario became baseline, derivatives based on the Fed rate (overnight interest swap), priced in additional 70 bp tightening in July.Over the weekend, Fed official Waller spoke openly in favor of a 75bp move especially if there are no surprises in the macroeconomic data for June, also saying that inflation needs to be reduced no matter where it comes from. Waller is a known hawk and it's clear that his mindset probably isn't dominating most FOMC members, but the signs that the Fed is putting more, if not all, effort into fighting inflation have become clear enough that it will take time for the market to fully price it.At the same time, along with tightening of the Fed's policy, the chances are growing that the economy will fall into recession next year, which will force the Fed to move to cut rates and resume QE. According to BoFA, the probability that the US economy will fall into recession next year has risen to 40%, while high inflation will persist due to the resilience of pro-inflationary factors on the supply side. In other words, destroying consumer demand may not be enough. Bank analysts expect GDP growth to slow to near zero in the second half of next year as lagged tightening of financial conditions starts to cool demand in the economy. The rebound in 2024 will be moderate.This week the economic calendar is not particularly remarkable, the markets may pay attention to the real estate data in the US. Indeed, the US real estate market is now gaining attention, as rapidly rising mortgage rates and declining consumer confidence indicate that this week's reports could be disappointing, especially the existing sales numbers:The significance of this data should not be underestimated, as housing construction makes a significant contribution to GDP (about 2%), and home sales are positively correlated with retail sales data. Existing home sales are expected to rise by 5.4m from 5.61m in the previous month, the weaker figure could fuel risk aversion in the market.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fed-goes-all-in-to-fight-inflation-and-markets-are-yet-to-grasp-this-shift-in-the-policy-stance"
via IFTTT

GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation, 20th June

TypeBearish BreakoutResistance: 1860Pivot:1838.9Support: 1807.4Preference:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the pivot at 1838.9 in line with the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1807.4 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and multiple swing low.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 1860 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation-20th-june"
via IFTTT

Investment Bank Outlook 20-06-2022

CitiEuropean OpenMonday’s focus has been on China, where LPR has been kept steady by PBoC today. However, the focus was on a sharp move higher for CNY, with no notable headlines seen behind the move. Elsewhere, the weekend saw French President Macron's Enseble lose the absolute majority with only 245 seats, while the Colombian election ended with a victory for Gustavo Petro (left). Over the day, USD has been offered, with high-beta currencies performing better. Stocks have ticked slightly higher, while oil prices have remained flat.Ahead, central bank speakers will be the main highlight for EUR, USD and GVBP. Watch for talk about the anti-fragmentation tool from the ECB, although Citi Economics cautions that ECB President Lagarde’s appearance will unlikely yield insight into ECB staff’s thinking. USD will observe a holiday, but we listen to the Fed’s Bullard on inflation and interest rates. GBP will look for insights into the balance of the growth and inflation risks from BoE speakers. Elsewhere, TWD receives export orders figures, and we flag that COP also observes a holiday today. In focusWhat happened in markets?FX: USD has been offered over the course of the Asian morning, with BBDXY about 0.25% weaker. The rest of the G10 currencies remain in the green, with high beta currencies performing. NOK and AUD lead at +0.46%, while JPY and GBP remain flat. CNH, however, was taken 0.52% higher today.Stocks rose slightly today, with Nasdaq100 futures and S&P eminis up 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Chinese stocks fared slightly better on the day, with ChiNext up 2.37% and CSI 300 up 0.71%.Rates: UST cash markets were closed due to the US holiday todayCNH’s riseCNH rises sharply by 0.52%, and CNY by 0.6% with no headlines behind the apparent move. Our traders state the same, that they do not see any headlines either. However, rumours on social media around the potential relaxation of quarantine measures in China could potentially be the cause, although our sales teams caution that this is not new.We flag that Treasury Secretary Yellen was on ABC on Sunday, reiterating comments on China tariffs though did not cite specifics and declined to say when there may be a decision. China stocks commodities have not benefited.–Reuters: Yellen "We all recognize that China engages in a range of unfair trade practices that is important to address but the tariffs we inherited, some serve no strategic purpose and raise cost to consumers,"CitiFX Wire’s Rui Ding highlighted in a China tariff Cheat sheet last month that any tariff relaxation is likely to be strategic, in line with broader foreign policy, with officials hinting at easing tariffs on bicycle, apparel and other textiles. This is unlikely to be a major economic tailwind for China and therefore any asset impact may be short-lived. Covid lock down risks and related policy support are likely to remain the biggest focuses in the near term.PBoC also left the 1y and 5y LPR unchanged at 3.70% and 4.45% in line with Bloomberg forecast. Citi Economics had been an outlier forecasting a 10bps cut to both, one of three contributors to the survey of 25 expecting a cut.We note recent reports in Securities Daily suggested any imminent cuts to the LPR are unlikely though do see room for additional cuts in the second half of the year. China rates and FX are both little changed following the release.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-20-06-2022"
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, June 20, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 20, 2022 Overnight Headlines Biden Deciding On Chinese Tariffs And Will Speak With China’s Xi Soon US Rejects China’s Claims Over The Taiwan Strait As Concerns Grow French President Macron failed to win an absolute majority in parliament. Fed’s Waller Backs 75 Basis-Point Rate Hike In July, Says Fed Is ‘All In’ Fed's Mester: Inflation Will Not Fall To The 2% Target For Two Years Eurogroup Chief: Europe Does Not Face Fresh Sovereign Debt Crisis ECB’s Rehn Underscores Commitment To Contain Bond-Market Panic Macron Loses Absolute Majority In Parliament In 'Democratic Shock' Spanish Prime Minister Set For A Heavy Defeat In Key Battleground Russia Advances In Battle For Ukraine City; NATO Warns Of Long War China Resists Loan Rate Cuts, Keeps Lending Benchmark Unchanged Bitcoin Hovers Around The $20,000 Level After A Volatile Weekend Asian Equity Markets On Mixed Footing; Chinese Bourses OutperformThe Day Ahead Global equities remain under pressure at the start of the week with most Asian stock exchanges lower on the day reflecting concerns that aggressive US monetary policy action will lead to a marked slowdown in growth. Speaking yesterday, US Fed member Mester said that the Fed would need to see “compelling evidence” that prices pressures are easing and that the risk of a US recession were rising to ease policy, albeit she was not expecting one in her base case. Meanwhile, yesterday’s French legislative elections saw President Macron fall short of attracting an absolute majority, following an unexpected surge in support for the far right. While the group of parties alliance called ‘Ensemble’ headed up Macron remains the largest bloc, the outcome means that he is likely to have a hard time in passing legislation. After the recent slew of ‘hawkish’ central bank policy announcements, markets will be looking for further clues on what to expect from them for the rest of the summer and beyond and there are plenty of central bank speakers in the coming week. In the US, potentially of most significance will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimonies to Congress (Wed & Thu). Powell seems set to be questioned closely about how quickly inflation will come down, what level of interest rates will be required and what will be the impact on the economy. Ahead of that, today ECB President Lagarde will testify to the European parliament. She seems set to confirm that the ECB will start raising interest rates in July but will probably be asked to provide more detail on the new anti-fragmentation tool for coping with yield spread widening. A number of other ECB officials are scheduled to speak, including Muller, Visco, Centeno, Kazaks and the Chief Economist Lane. In the UK, BoE MPC members Haskel and Mann are scheduled to speak. While both members voted for a larger increase (50bp) increase in Bank Rate than the 25bp hike delivered last week, from a monetary policy perspective, the latter is likely to attract more interest. Mr Haskel will give opening remarks at a TechUK Policy Leadership conference on “Restarting the future, how to fix the intangible economy”, while Ms Mann will discuss “Monetary policy in a global context” at a Market News International event. At last week’s policy meeting, relative to rate increase from the US Fed and Swiss National Bank, the 25bp increase from the Bank of England was seen as modest. Nevertheless, financial markets continue to expect 180bp of rate increase by the end of the year (see chart), with most of the meetings forecast to see increases of 50bp. Ms Mann’s comments will be watched for indications of how likely this course of action will prove to ultimately be. Elsewhere, it is a quiet day for data with no key releases due today, while markets are closed in the US for the Juneteenth public holiday.CFTC Data IMM net spec USD long gallops higher in Jun 8-14 period; amid $IDX +3% EUR$ slid 2.75% near 2022 low, specs -56,561 contracts now short 6,018 $JPY rose 2.14%, hitting 24-yr high; specs +21,891 contracts now -69,755 GBP$ -4.68% pre-Fed, BoE Wed/Thurs; specs buy 5,214 on dip now -65,596 Rise in oil stirred CAD flip to long (+24.2k), AUD (+4.6k) & NZD (13k) buys BTC bottom fishers +571 contracts specs now long 1,061 contracts Fed 75bp hike amid timid BoE 25bp, and BoJ ultra-dovish lifted USD in new IMM period(According To Reuters Data)FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0415-25 (400M), 1.0650 (317M) GBP/USD: 1.2400 (565M) AUD/USD: 0.6825 (250M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EURUSD is trading at highs above 1.0520 as London traders join the session Opened the Asian session 50pips lower after closing down 0.6% Friday USD remains offered in a quiet session with US public holidays ECB’s Lagarde speaks later today Initial offers are seen at 1.0560 ahead 1.0615 Bids eyed towards 1.0450 ahead of cycle lows Daily VWAP is bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBPUSD trades above 1.22 as the London session gets going Technically cable held a 50% retracement of last week's advance Headline risk comes with Inflation and retail sales later in the week Less volatility likely today following last week's fireworks around the BOE Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 Daily VWAP is bearish USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below Opens the week with a bid tone, volatility in a thin Asain trade has seen a 70pip range Importer bids early in the session saw an initial spike to 135.44 before fading UDJPY has retreated in unison with US Yields. Headline risk FED CHeif Powell speech Wednesday More Importer bids seen towards 134 Exporter offers cap ahead of 136 Daily VWAP is bullish with strong support back at 132AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below Aussie catches an early bid as US equity markets steady Aussie closed Friday down 1.5% Recovery sees AUD back above .6970 Continued concerns regarding global growth likely to cap Offers seen towards .7075, bids eyed back at .6900 Daily VWAP is bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-20-2022"
via IFTTT

NK2251!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

TitleNK2251!, H4 | Potential Bearish ContinuationTypeBearish ReversalResistance: 26138.15Pivot: 25614.96Support: 24551.71Preference:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the pivot at 25614.96 in line with the pullback resistance, swing low and 100% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 24551.71 in line with the horizontal swing low.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 26138.15 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nk2251-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
via IFTTT

Market Update – June 20 – Stocks at lows, USD Holds, Oil Steadies

USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.13), Stocks mixed on Friday & third week lower (S&P500 -5.79% & worst week since March 2020, down -23% YTD) For the Dow, this was the 11th weekly decline out of the last 12 weeks, the worst trend ever. Futures steady. Yields rallied (US 10yr 3.24%), Asian markets have mostly slipped, (Nikkei -1.00%). Oil tanked close to -6% on Friday on fears of recession and Gold remains pressured by rising yields & strong USD. BTC broke below $20k over the weekend. Chinese imports of Russian oil +55%. Fed’s Waller & Kashkari support hiking another 75 bps in July, Mester said 2% inflation will take at least 2-yrs and Macron has his lost parliamentary majority, under pressure from both left & right.

Week Ahead – Will be dominated by Central Bank Speak topped by FED Chair Powell’s  2-day testimony to congress. CPI & PMI data also due this week.

• USDIndex rallied to 104.80 on Friday and holds at 104.15 today. 
• Equities – USA500 +8 (+0.02%) at 3674, US500FUTS at 3691 now.
• Yields 10-year yield higher (3.24% at close), trades at  3.23% now.   
• Oil & Gold had weaker sessions – USOil crashed to $105.75 Friday from over $123 earlier in the week, trades at $108.00.  Gold could not breach $1850 and trades at  $1840 now.   
• Bitcoin crashed to $18.8k continues to pivot around $30K.
• FX markets – EURUSD down at  1.0525,  USDJPY holds at 135.00 zone (24-yr high) and Cable trades down at 1.2240. 

Overnight –  PPI in Germany hotter (1.6% vs 1.5%) but down from 2.8% last month.

Today – Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Panetta, Kazaks & BoE’s Mann, Juneteenth holiday in the US.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.75%). Moves higher from 0.6900 test on Friday to  0.6980, as AUD gets a bid in the Asian session. Next key resistance 0.7000. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but turning higher, RSI 57 & rising,   H1 ATR 0.0017, Daily ATR 0.0072.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /479594/
via IFTTT

Get ready for the coming oil glut

Investors are assuming that energy prices will stay high. History suggests the opposite, says Max King

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/energy/oil/604990/get-ready-for-the-coming-oil-glut
via IFTTT

GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance:1.23999Pivot: 1.2229Support:1.19335Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 1.2229 where the horizontal overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to our 1st support at 1.19335 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1.23999 where the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpusd-h4-or-potential-bearish-momentum20"
via IFTTT

EURCAD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.37497Pivot: 1.36243Support: 1.35893Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.37497 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement, 161.8% fibonacci extension and swing high resistance are from our pivot at 1.36243 in line with the horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.35893 where the horizontal overlap support is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurcad-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation"
via IFTTT

XAUUSD, H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 1916.681Pivot: 1842.696Support: 1808.346Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1842.696 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection to 1st resistance at 1916.681 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1808.0346 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:No major news

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/xauusd-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
via IFTTT

DXY, H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 105.261Pivot: 104.173Support: 103.586Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trendline and above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 104.173 at the pullback support in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 105.261 in line with 61.8% fibonacci projection and multiple swing highs.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may drop from the pivot to the 1st support at 103.586 at the swing low in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:Uncertainty about peak inflation in the US continues to support the dollar

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dxy-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
via IFTTT

WHEAT FUTURES (ZW1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1103'6Pivot: 1084'0Support: 1072'4Preferred Case:On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1084'0 where the overlap support and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 1103'6 in line with the overlap resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1072'4 in line with the overlap support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement .Fundamentals:Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for wheat .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/wheat-futures-zw1-h1-potential-for-bullish-rise"
via IFTTT