How to invest in lumber, whichever way the market goes

Wood plays a key role in US housing. Slow growth has hurt prices – but not for long, says David J. Stevenson.

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S&P 500 is Again in the red and more Downside Seems Likely

Risk assets traded in the red on Wednesday, with the dollar rebounding from its recent short-term downtrend as debates about impending recession successfully enters the mainstream. Several large investment banks have already estimated the chances of a recession starting from the 4th quarter of 2022 at more than 50%, which, against the backdrop of the central banks’ “no-tolerance” inflation policy, becomes an even more depressing forecast. Governments and central banks have practically no tools left to smooth out the recession: one way or another, their effect is reduced to creating positive demand shocks, which is unacceptable in conditions of high inflation and negative supply shocks.The dollar index is again approaching multi-year highs as bearish factors are at play in both two key asset classes – stocks and bonds. Slightly negative dynamics is also observed in the sovereign segment of the debt market - bonds with 10-year maturity in the US and Germany offer a slightly lower yield than yesterday.Of the latest economic updates, we can highlight the data on inflation in the UK. Headline monthly inflation was 0.7%, better than expected, consensus again underestimated producer price inflation, annual PPI of input prices reached 22.1% (forecast 19.4%), monthly PPI - 2.1%. UK inflation figures are the highest in 40 years: Investors have not yet received a clear explanation from theBritish Central Bank what it will do with high inflation, at the last meetingthere was a modest increase in rate by 25 basis points, there wasn’t any cluein the policy statement that the Central Bank will throw all its efforts intofighting inflation (as stated Fed), that’s why the inflation report made anegative impression on the pound, which today is more actively losing groundagainst the dollar compared to the European currency. GBPUSD is testing fromabove 1.22, mainly bearish sentiment for the pair will remain until the priceremains below the resistance zone of 1.2320 -1.2380:The oil market is showing a long-awaited positive momentum, with prices moving towards the $100 per barrel level, as fears of a subsidence in demand due to the threat of a recession seem to be beginning to outweigh the signals of a shortage on the global supply side. Lower prices allow us to expect a weakening of general inflation in the coming months and the markets will probably gradually begin to price in this important signal, however, in order to consolidate this optimism, it is necessary to see a softening stance on the side of central banks, primarily from the Fed.Classic recession indicators confirm that pessimism is slowly starting to dominate sentiment. The spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries is approaching zero again: All in all, equity prices seem not have bottomed out, thedollar's medium-term rally has not run out of steam, and downward risk asset pressurewill likely remain abound until the market begins to expect that the US CentralBank is ready to soften rhetoric in response to market participants' fears of arecession. Technically, the S&P 500 index is near the lower bound of thetrend channel, which points to higher chance of a rebound, however, unlikeprevious movements towards the lower bound, market participants were lessactive in buying the dip intraday, so the price may try to test the level of3600 and below in an attempt to elicit more powerful bullish response before wecan talk about an upward correction:

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GBPCAD: Inflation is still the key to FX movement

The Sterling fell soon after the release of UK inflation data which was largely in line with expectations, but some key elements of the report were softer and this could ultimately prove to be supportive of the currency. GBPUSD is trading at around 1.2250 at the time of writing. The annual inflation rate in the UK increased to 9.1% y/y in May 2022 from 9% y/y in the previous month, the highest since 1982. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7% m/m, above expectations of 0.6% m/m, with the main upward pressure coming from food and non-food prices.

Core CPI grew 5.9% y/y in May, below market expectations of 6% and below the 6.2% in April. The core month-on-month reading came in at 0.5% m/m down from 0.7% previously and consensus expectations for 0.7%. The data is likely to prompt the BOE to raise rates soon, with the option for a 25 bps rate hike at its next meeting in August rather than upping the stakes with a 50 bps hike. The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure despite  its latest rebound from 2-year lows at  1.1932.

Meanwhile, Canada will also report its monthly CPI later today. In the previous report, Canada’s annual inflation rate increased to 6.8% y/y in April 2022, the highest since January 1991 and slightly above market expectations of 6.7%, driven by food and shelter as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to press energy and commodity prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6% m/m, slightly above the 0.5% forecast, but easing from the 1.4% jump in March. In this report, consensus stands at 1% m/m.

Canada’s CPI inflation figure for May will be important, as investors will be looking for clues to justify a potentially more aggressive rate hike from the BOC next month. Given the unexpected spike in inflation elsewhere, an upbeat report in Canada should come as no surprise, and likely to make for a big rate hike, as the economy is already running hot.

Technical Overview

Last week GBPCAD rebounded from the oversold point of 1.5482 and managed to gain more than 1%. However, the bearish trend that has been going on since the beginning of the year still looks very steep, although an attempt to bounce back after recording a 6-year low could be an important indication of the direction of the next move.

GBPCAD, H8

If the intraday bullish flags above the support at 1.5776 are validated, then the price projection for the GBPCAD pair will test the resistance at 1.6181 or at least land at the FE61.8% level at 1.6122 (from a drawdown of 1.5482-1.6006 and 1.5798). This would mean the minor resistance 1.6006 is broken. However, as long as the price only moves below the minor resistance 1.6006 the prospect will remain in the range of consolidation. A move below the 1.5776 minor support would bring the bias to the downside again.

In the medium term, the resistance at 1.6181 is important to watch, because a break of this level could confirm a rebound at 1.5482 and the price rally will reach higher retracement levels. As long as the price is below 1.6181, there will be no change in the direction of the price.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The ten highest dividend yields in the FTSE 250

The average FTSE 250 dividend yield is around 2.4%, but many stocks yield much more. Rupert Hargreaves picks the best FTSE 250 stocks for income investors to buy.

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Inflation in the UK just keeps on rising

UK inflation has risen to 9.1% a year – far beyond the Bank of England’s 2% target rate. And it’s likely to remain high for some time. That’s going to change everything, says John Stepek. The economy, our politics – and the way you invest.

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SILVER FUTURES (SILVER1!), H1 Potential for Bearish Momentum

Type : Bearish Momentum Key Levels: Resistance : 61692 Pivot: 60565 Support : 59367 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud which supports our bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 60565 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 59367 in line with the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection .Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break through pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance level at 61692 in line with the overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on silver .

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The return of annuities for retirement income

Rising annuity rates offer an improving alternative to income drawdown for those looking for an income in their retirement.

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Market Update – June 22 – Stocks rally, USD & Yields hold, Oil & Yen sink

USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.51), Stocks closed up over 2% (NASDAQ +2.51%) – (1) dead cat bounce & another bear market rally or (2) signs of peak inflation and peak Fed bearishness ? (Technicals & Fundamentals still say 1). Asian shares closed lower on rapid spread of new Omicron  (Hang Seng -1.49%) Yields rheld their gains. Oil also slumped (Brent -3.42%) Gold & BTC slide sideways. Biden expected to announce temp. tax reprieve on gasoline, BOJ Mins confirmed they will ease further if necessary “without hesitation” USDJPY hits new 24-year high. NZD hit by weak trade data.

• USDIndex tested 103.72 on Tuesday before rallying to 104.55 now. 
• Equities – USA500 closed +2.45% (3764), US500FUTS slumped to 3719 now.
• Yields 10-year yield higher, closed at 3.26% , trades at 3.29% now.   
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil slumped 3% to trade at $104.90. Biden & Omicron news weighed &  Gold could not hold $1830 and trades at $1825 now on higher Yields and stronger USD.
• Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, test $22K yesterday, back to $20K now.
• FX markets – EURUSD hback under 1.0500,  USDJPY hit new 24-yr highs at 136.71 and Cable trades down to 1.2225 now, following Inflation news, from 1.2325 highs yesterday. 

Overnight – UK CPI hits 9.1% inline but up from 9.0% last month, CORE a tick lighter at 5.9% vs 6.0% & 6.2%, PPI beat 2.1% vs 1.8% & 2.7% prior and RPI also hotter at 11.7% vs 11.4% & 11.1% last time. NZ Trade Balance less than 50% of forecast at . Reuters Poll Fed Path: 75bp July, 50bp Sept & Oct, and 25bp Nov. (at the earliest). Japanese official – FX moves against the Yen “not ideal” 

Today – Canadian CPI, EZ Consumer Confidence, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Evans & Harker, SNB’s Jordan ECB’s de Guindos & Elderson, BoC’s Rogers.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.18%). Collapsed from test of 0.6360 on Monday & Tuesday to 0.6250, as NZD Trade Balance missed significantly.   MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative turning lower, RSI 21.25, OS but still falling, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00850.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

#USDJPY – Summer 1998 went to 147.00, Spring 1990 went to 160.00. New 24 yr high today at 136.71

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GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type:Bullish Bounce Key levels:Resistance:1.24024 Pivot:1.21828 Support:1.20365 Preference: On the H4, with prices breaking above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will drop and rise from our pivot at 1.21828 where the horizontal overlap support and 50% fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 1.24024 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance. Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.20365 where the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.

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EURAUD, H4 I Potential reversal

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.52906Pivot: 1.51914Support:1.5047Preferred Case:With price expected to reverse off the stochastic indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 1.51914 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing high resistance to our 1st support at 1.5047 in line with the horizontal overlap support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 1st resistance at 1.52906 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection

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Don’t be tempted by cashback mortgage deals

Many lenders are now offering “cashback mortgages” that can return up to £1,000 to you on completion. But beware, says Ruth Jackson-Kirby. Cashback offers can often hide an expensive mortgage.

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The IndeX Files 21-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightSentiment was firm in Asia with both S&P 500 futures and most Asian bourses trading higher at the time of writing. Trust in central banks’ ability to tame inflation without causing recession seems to have returned to the market. In G10 FX, the USD remained weak along with the CHF and JPY. The NOK, CAD and AUD outpaced the rest of the G10 with the formers being given a boost by higher oil prices. Despite the RBA talking down aggressive market pricing for rate hikes, the AUD managed gains on the back of a bounce in iron ore prices.CitiEuropean OpenRBA was front and centre on a quiet Asian morning following a US holiday. A dovish lean from RBA Governor Lowe and the minutes sent OIS markets repricing, and the Aussie curve bull steepening. Treasury yields opened higher afterday’s bund sell-off. Positive risk sentiment pushed stocks and oil higher, and high beta currencies outperformed in Asia. Conversely, USD was slightly offered. BoK Governor Lee’s comments early in Asia seemed slightly hawkish, while we flag that Israel is set for another election as the ruling coalition collapses.Ahead, housing fata and Fedspeak will feature for the US. SEK will watch for the NIER Swedish Economy Report, while GBP listens closely to BoE’s Pill and Tenreyro. CAD receives retail sales data, HKD a CPI print ad BRL will eye central bank minutes. Lastly, we flag that CLP observes a local holiday.What happened in markets?FX: Risk sentiment was positive in markets, with USD and JPY lower modestly. High beta currencies outperformed, led by NOK at +0.4%. Volumes were around 30% lower in FX compared to 30d averages, after yesterday’s US holiday.Stocks: A mild overnight rally has extended, with US equity futures up. S&P eminis are up 1.31% and Nasdaq100 futures are up 1.70%. Nikkei opens higher and trades at +2.24%. We flag that China stocks are underperforming today, though our sales desk sees investors turning increasingly constructive.–Our futures desk sees some early fast money demand in ES1 as well as pockets of short covering in US futures, flagging 3770 as the next level to watch. They also see new long interest in China, though they note net flows overall are neutral.Rates: Treasury yields opened higher by 4-5bps across the curve following the bund sell-off on Monday. Our trader Hideyuki Liu writes that Desk flows saw better RM selling in 10y, but things remain quiet in the Tokyo session coming out of the long-weekend.Nothing but the dollarDXY was offered in Asia, the only G10 currency other than JPY to trade in the red. We remind that CitiFX Strategy remains bullish USD in the medium term.CitiFX Quant, write that after the strong buying at the start of last week investors are now close to neutral USD overall with our Positioning Indicator (CFPI) as of Friday close at +0.7 (out of -10 short to +10 long). There has been plenty of net USD buying since the beginning of June, illustrated by cumulative Citi flow with leveraged starting first and then real money following.Ahead we look to housing market data and Fed speeches:–Existing Home Sales MoM at 15:00 BST for May. Citi Economics expects existing home sales to decline in May to 5.40m. Risks for existing home sales are skewed to the downside in May and over the coming months. The continued rise in mortgage rates should continue to put downward pressure on existing home sales – which can only be compounded by continued low supply.–Fed’s Mester Speaks at Women in Leadership Event at 17:00 BST, followed by Fed’s Barkin Speaking in Richmond at 20:30 BST. Citi Economics listens for any comments on whether they would prefer a 50bp or 75bp hike in July and what their reaction function to incoming inflation data will be moving forward.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 21, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 21, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) expects economic expansion to continue this year and that the Fed must meet market expectations for rate hikes EU member states to formally grant Ukraine candidate status later this week U.S. Treasury Sec Yellen says gasoline tax holiday worth considering as anti-inflation tool U.S. Treasury Sec Yellen in talks with allies on Russian oil price cap Japan PM Kishida comments monetary policy must be considered holistically Japan FinMin Suzuki says wiill respond to FX moves appropriately if necessary Australia RBA fllags more rate rises, 75 bp moves unlikely, to stick to 25-50 bps RBA concedes yield target exit was disorderly, damaging APAC stocks gained across the board broadly constructive global risk tone European equity futures are indicative of a higher open Eurostoxx 50 +0.6% Crude futures continued to nurse some of Friday's heavy losses Bitcoin makes gains with price action relatively stable around the 21000 levelThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mostly up this morning, but Chinese indices are lagging following reports of Covid outbreaks in Macau and Shenzhen. Following a meeting with former US Treasury Secretary Summers, US President Biden said a US recession was not inevitable. However, Summers warned of a significant chance of stagflation. The EU and China are reported to be planning high-level talks on the economy and climate change. Australian central bank head Lowe confirmed that Aussie inflation is expected to peak at about 7% in Q4. He said he will do what’s needed to return inflation to the 2-3% target but that market interest rate expectations are excessive. Today’s data calendar is light. However, the monthly CBI industrial survey will provide an indication of recent trends in the factory sector. The May reading for this survey painted a more upbeat picture of demand conditions than its PMI equivalent as it saw both overall orders and export orders at their highest levels of the year. However, less positively it also showed inflationary pressures still very elevated. Today’s June reading comes two days ahead of Thursday’s PMI results for the same month. Overall readings on US economic activity remain mixed enough for it to be unclear whether growth is as yet slowing significantly in response to higher interest rates. However, one sector that certainly seems to be showing an impact is housing as both construction and sales seem to have rolled over. Existing home sales, for example, have fell in four out of the last five months up to April and markets expect another sizeable decline occurred in May. Possibly of most interest amongst today’s central bank speakers will be the first of two speeches this week by Bank of England Chief Economist Pill. In an interview last week following the BoE’s 0.25% interest rate rise he seemed to drop hints that he might favour a larger hike in August. So today’s comments will be watched for any further indications. UK CPI data for May, due early Wednesday, will provide further evidence on the extent of near-term inflationary pressures. Expect annual headline inflation to remain at 9% reflecting a further pickup in petrol and food prices offset by some easing in ‘core’ inflation. The detail of the change in ‘core’ prices will probably be of particular interest to the BoE as it looks for signs of whether inflationary pressures are broadening out or not. There may be indications of this in in services price inflation, which markets forecast to have risen again, but expect that to be offset by a deceleration in goods price inflation.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0470-80 (824M), 1.0495-00 (340M) 1.0560-65 (320M), 1.0575-85 (1.0BLN), 1.0650 (470M) USD/JPY: 134.00 (1.35BLN), 134.40-50 (685M), GBP/USD: 1.2350(229M). EUR/GBP: 0.8440-50 (340M) AUD/USD: 0.6850-60 (720M), 0.6895-00 (540M) 0.7000 (1.2BLN), 0.7010-15 (727M), 0.7025 (330M) 0.7070 (402M). NZD/USD: 0.6500 (369M) USD/CHF: 0.9715-20 (310M). EUR/CHF: 1.0100 (347M) 1.0250 (895M), 1.0270-75 (330M). AUD/JPY 95.00 (609M) USD/CAD: 1.2925-30 (317M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EURUSD is trading at highs above 1.0540’s as London traders join the session USD remains offered in a quiet session with US public holidays yesterday ECB Lagarde wiill stick to rate-hike plans, must nip fragmentation risk in the bud Initial offers are seen at 1.0560 ahead 1.0615 Bids eyed towards 1.0450 ahead of cycle lows Daily VWAP is bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBPUSD trades towRDA 1.23 as the London session gets going Technically cable held a 50% retracement of last week's advance BoE Mann, weak GBP makes case for big rate hike, risk of permanently higher inflation Headline risk comes with Inflation and retail sales later in the week Less volatility likely today following last week's fireworks around the BOE Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 Daily VWAP is bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below Retains bid tone, reduced range in Asian trade UDJPY muted action in unison with US Yields. Headline risk FED Cheif Powell speech Wednesday More Importer bids seen towards 134 Exporter offers cap ahead of 136 Daily VWAP is bullish with strong support back at 132AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below Aussie catches bid as global risk sentiment steadies RBA Governor Lowe ‘Australians should be prepared for further interest rate increases’ After early pullback AUD again trades back above .6970 Continued concerns regarding global growth likely to cap Offers seen towards .7075, bids eyed back at .6900 Daily VWAP is bearish

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Market Update – Stocks & Yields Lift for Summer Solstice

USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.16), Stocks closed higher in Europe (DAX +1.01%, FTSE100 +1.50%) & Asian shares opened over 1% higher and closed positively (Nikkei +2.09%) US Futures +1.15%. Yields rallied (US 10yr 3.2976%). Oil ticks 2% higher, lifting CAD pairs, after Fridays sell-off and Gold & BTC slide sideways. Yellen talks of a “price cap” and “tax” for Russian oil exports and a tax “holiday” for gasoline in US to ease inflation. (Ruble @ 15 mth high). Japan PM Kishida & FM Suzuki: Rapid yen weakening is a source of concern.  RBA’s Lowe rates need to go higher in low unemployment high inflation Australia.

Week Ahead – Will be dominated by Central Bank Speak topped by FED Chair Powell’s  2-day testimony to Congress. CPI & PMI data also due this week.

• USDIndex tested 104.00 on Monday and holds at 104.15 today. 
• Equities – USA500 closed yesterday (Friday 3674), US500FUTS at 3725 now.
• Yields 10-year yield higher , trades at  3.29% now.   
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil recovered over 2% to trade at $110.20.  Gold could not hold $1840 and trades at $1835 now.   
• Bitcoin pivots off $20K, to test $21K now.
• FX markets – EURUSD holds at  1.0525,  USDJPY holds over 135.00 zone shy of 24-yr high 135.50 and Cable trades up 20 pips to 1.2260. 

Overnight – Goldman Sachs – US recession in the next year, @30% (was 15%)

Today – Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Speeches from ECB’s Rehn, Fed’s Barkin & Mester.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.30%). Continues to move higher from 101.65 test on Thursday to  104.50, as Oil recovers from sell-off. Next key resistance 104.75 & 105.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & turning higher, RSI 71 ,OB but still rising,   H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 1.343.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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