Vitalik Buterin: the man who changed cryptocurrencies

Maths prodigy Vitalik Buterin became fascinated by bitcoin as a teenager. Now 28, he is worshipped as a near deity by crypto-enthusiasts.

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Rail strikes and the summer of discontent – who's to blame?

The rail workers are all out and look likely to continue through the summer. Comrades in other unions are joining the strikers. Who is to blame?

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EURCHF set to clear 1.01?

The Swiss Franc has been one of the strongest currencies this month with only the USD doing better, albeit by a small margin, supported by strong risk-off flows which has seen Equities and Commodity prices fall strongly so far in June – US500.F  fell about 11% before paring some of its losses this week while USOil is down about 3.7% in June.

The Swiss National Bank was hawkish in in their meeting last week, where they raised interest rates for the first time in 15 years by 50 basis points to -0.25% to counter inflationary pressures, which printed 2.9% in May. This move shows the SNB has learnt a lesson from the inflation situation in other major economies and are willing to act to curb inflation before it runs rampant.

Markets have since priced in a nearly 100% expectation for a 50 bps hike and are currently expecting a 66% chance of a 75 bps hike as the SNB implied that further rate increases should be expected. The ECB on the other hand have a lot on their plate, with fragmentation risk among European countries as highly indebted nations like Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain may struggle with higher interest rates more than others and this may see more inflow into the Franc through the EURCHF rates, especially after the SNB implied they were more accepting of a stronger Franc.

The Swiss economy has remained resilient despite headwinds from the tension between Russia and Ukraine which has strongly increased the cost of energy. Switzerland imports over 70% of its energy consumption and the COVID situation in China dampened demand from Switzerland’s 3^rd largest trade partner after the EU and United States. Q1 GDP grew to 0.5% above market expectations, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May was 2.1%, down from 2.3% in April and the inflation rate grew to 0.7% in May, taking the annual rate to 2.9%.

Over the coming weeks, we could see further strength in the Swiss Franc, considering the hawkish pivot from the SNB and expectations to hike rates further, the bank’s willingness to accept a stronger Franc – although the bank also noted that they are willing to be active in the Forex market which means intervention if the CHF gathers too much strength – and the expectation for global economic slowdown amid central bank tightening, which supports the currency as a safe haven.

#EURCHF is down about 1.8% so far this month after initially climbing 2.3% as risk off sentiment and SNB action spurred the downside. After a tight range from late last week, the pair has finally made its way to the 1.01 support level again which held as previous cycle low going back to mid-April. #EURCHF currently trades below all three daily MAs, after breaking the year’s ascending channel last week. The retest of the 1.01 level could attract more bears that may  take the price to 0.997 which is the lowest point on the pair since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank announced the end of the EURCHF peg. Alternatively, an improvement in risk sentiment, jawboning by the SNB or effective action by the ECB to counter fragmentation risk could see the pair pare some of the losses recorded this month as it currently trades in the oversold region heading into the end of the first half of the year.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Heritage Adisa

Market Analyst – Educational Office – Nigeria

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 24, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 24, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Equity Markets Broadly Higher; US And EU Futures Also Rise UK Conservatives Lose Key District In Major Blow To PM Johnson UK Consumer Confidence Falls To Lowest Since Records Began Powell Hammers Home Unconditional’ Commitment To Cool Prices Fed’s Bowman Backs Raising Funds Rate By 75 Basis Points In July US Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way For Shareholder Payouts US Meets With Refiners On High Pump Prices But No Plan Yet EU Leaders Vote To Grant Ukraine And Moldova Candidate Status ECB’s Kazimir: The ECB Rate May Be At 1.5-2.0% In A Years’ Time China Central Bank Raises Cash Injection To Keep Liquidity Stable Japanese Consumer Inflation Tops BoJ Target For Second Month OPEC+ To Stick To Oil Supply Rise Plan As Biden Heads To Saudi US Dollar Stumbles As Interest Rate Path Fuels Recession Worries Bitcoin Rangebound Remains Above Recently Reclaimed 20,000 levelThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets chalked up gains as US Treasury yields fall with attention appearing to be shifting towards the loss of economic momentum and a potential near-term peak in inflation. While US policy rates are expected to rise significantly further this year, market pricing currently points to rate cuts around the middle of next year. In the UK, data released overnight showed consumer confidence in the GfK survey fall to an all-time low of -41 in June, weighed by the squeeze on incomes from high inflation. Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost both by elections in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton. Party Chairman Oliver Dowden resigned. Just released official UK data showed the volume of retail sales decline by 0.5% in May while the previous month’s rise was revised lower. Sales volumes fell in predominantly food stores, linked to higher prices, and were flat in other (non-food) stores. In the year-on-year comparison, the volume of sales fell by 4.7%. However, in nominal terms (actual pounds spent), retail sales were up 5.0%. That suggests high inflation is resulting in consumers paying more for less goods. The German IFO survey of businesses will be released this morning. It has so far shown some degree of resilience in the economy in the face of supply bottlenecks, rising costs and the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, confidence fell sharply in March and, despite slight rises in April and May, it remains below levels at the start of the year and is consistent with a slowdown in economic activity. For June, anticipate the headline index to remain steady at 93.0. It is worth noting that yesterday’s flash PMIs for Germany were weaker. In the US, latest data for new home sales will attract some attention, particularly as higher interest rates cool the housing market. Also due is the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The preliminary reading showed sentiment falling to an all-time low of 50.2, while longer-term inflation expectations rose to a 14-year high. On the central bank speaker front, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Pill and external MPC member Haskel will speak at separate events this afternoon. Pill’s speech on ‘Challenges for Monetary Policy after Covid-19’ may attract particular attention. US Fed speakers include St Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) on central banks and inflation.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400 (670M), 1.0420-30 (674M), 1.0450 (574M) 1.0495-00 (1.15BLN), 1.0520-30 (365M), 1.0575 (275M) 1.0600 (483M), 10660 (560M) USD/CHF: 0.9600 (240M), 0.9700 (540M). AUD/JPY: 95.60 (407M) AUD/USD: 0.6900 (923M), 0.6980 (229M), 0.7000 (290M) USD/CAD: 1.2850 (390M), 1.2900 (230M), 1.2950 (400M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD trades in a subdued fashion as PMI data continues to weigh Support coming from slower Asian session and bid in risk sentiment Bulls to challenge 1.06 into the end of the week adding support to daily double bottom German IFO main release of note and will likely drive sentiment short term Initial offers are seen at 1.0560 ahead 1.0615 Bids eyed towards 1.0450/70 ahead of cycle lows 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP continues to trade in a tight range, election news does little to excite the market Despite ongoing negative headlines, weak econ data, strikes & partygate GBP holds up Trading should pick up as LDN session starts, traders likely to square books into W/end Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below JPY retains broad-based bid USD/JPY offered as LDN session gets underway Giving back gains after Gotobi Tokyo fix bids have been absorbed Japanese importer bids seen below 134.50 DTTC option expiries Monday 134.50, 135.00 strikes US yields off lows but retain an offered tone Global equity sentiment improves overnight 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below Rotates around 0.6900 in slower Asian session Soft commodities continue to weigh Near term resistance site at .6950/60 How commodities close out the week will likely drive AUD action 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-24-2022"
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Market Update – June 24 – USD & Yields slips, Stocks tick higher

USD slips from highs (USDIndex 104.00), Stocks closed higher (NASDAQ +1.62%) Yields slipped again (-1.66%) after no new news from Powell  Asian shares stronger  (Hang Seng +2.24%, Nikkei +1.23%) Oil holds at lows, Gold dipped & BTC picked up. Ukraine gained EU candidacy status. UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives lost the two by-elections, triggering the resignation of  Party Chairman Dowden. European Futs +1.0%. USDJPY cooled further as NZD & AUD outperformed in Asian session.

• USDIndex tested 104.50 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now. 
• Equities – USA500 closed +35 (3795), US500FUTS higher at 3824 now.
• Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 3.133% , trades at 3.018% now.   
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $106.80 before slipping back to $104.50 now. Gold spiked to $1845 again but trades at $1822 now on weaker Yields and USD.
• Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K,  trades at $20.7k now from a test of 21k.
• FX markets – EURUSD tested 105.00 yesterday back to 1.0536,  USDJPY cooled again to 134.60 now. Cable trades at 1.2270 now, from lows at 1.2170 yesterday, despite by-election results and weak Retail Sales data, UK recession risks are stacking up.

Overnight – Japanese Core CPI inline & unchanged (2.1%) SPPI hotter (1.8%) UK Retail Sales  a tick better than expected (-0.5% vs -0.6%) but down significantly from 1.4% last month. 

Today – German Ifo, US New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard & Daly, ECB’s de Cos, BoE’s Pill, 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.49%). NZD out performs today. Rallied from 0.62500 test yesterday to 0.6300 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 56.58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00843.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

 

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ES1!, H4 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish Breakout Key Levels:Resistance: 4202.25 Pivot: 3827.75 Support: 3654.00Preference: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 3827.75 in line with the pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st resistance at 4202.25 in line with the swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to 1st support at 3654.00 at the horizontal swing low in line with 78.6% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/es1-h4-or-potential-bullish-momentum"
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EURUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish Bounce Key Levels:Resistance: 1.07724 Pivot: 1.04691 Support: 1.03514Preference: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1.04691 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement and pullback support to the 1st resistance at 1.07724 in line with the horizontal swing high and 100% fibonacci projection. Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 1.03514 in line with the multiple swing low and 61.8% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation24"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 138.669 Pivot: 134.729 Support: 131.492Preference: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 134.729 in line with the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 138.669 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may break support structure at the pivot and head for 1st support at 131.492 in line with the swing low support, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

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USOIL: 3-month trendline breached! Will it break ?

USOIL prices are once again pressured by stagflation concerns, which have sent stocks and yields down during the week. After the Fed’s major interest rate hike last week, USOil prices are down more than 5% this week following the Fed Chair Powel testimony.

Fed Chair Powell did not really say anything new in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in the first leg of his required Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Treasuries were in rally mode all session amid haven demand and as the Chair continued to stress the Fed is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and that restoring price stability is “absolutely essential.” The big question is whether the Fed can accomplish this without causing a recession.

Meanwhile, the weaker than expected Eurozone PMI reports added to expectations of a broad downturns in global growth. Recession fears have led to a rally in bonds and the correction in growth expectations is also leaving traders to correct demand expectations for oil, which has capped prices for now. European gas prices meanwhile a rising, with TTF up 7.30% on the day nearly 10% over the week, amid growing concern that Russia is throttling supplies now in order to prevent countries from filling storage levels ahead of the winter.

Hence in general the uncertainty over the overall economic outlook against the background of aggressive central bank action will likely continue to underpin volatile and jittery market moves. In the longterm however, prices remain far up on the levels seen last year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow make for tight physical markets. Supply and demand imbalances are likely to keep prices underpinned well into next year although in Europe, concern over gas shortages are trumping oil price jitters for now, as Russia throttles supply and governments struggle to find alternative suppliers. For now this look OK, but there are mounting concern that a cold winter could lead to supply shortages in Europe, which would further add to recession risks.

Currently the USOIL extended declines for nearly 10 consecutive days, to $101.50 area, retesting 3-month trendline. In the medium term, the sharp decline below 50-day EMA, along with the bearish turn of MACD lines rise concerns whether USOIL outlook has turn negative, indicating more bearish bias in the near term. The RSI is at 38 but flat, backing the bearish outlook in the medium term , but contracting it at the same time for the intraday picture.

Key Support levels for the asset if it manage to extend declines below this ascending trendline that has been identifies since the beginning of the year, could open the doors to the confluence of the 200-day EMA and year’s support at $93.70-94.00. Further decline from the latter could bring $85.00-$87 into attention. To the flipside, 50-day EMA holds as a key Resistance level for the asset, as a turn of USOIL above the $111.00 area could indicate the breach of year’s peak again..

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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BofA Crypto Flows to know

BofA Crypto Flows to knowAccording to a report by BofA Digital asset's bearish positioning persists: Investors are continuing to position defensively following last year’s liquidity-driven digital asset bull market. Although painful, removing the sector’s froth is likely healthy as investors shift focus to projects with clear road maps to cash flow and profitability vs purely revenue growth. The digital asset ecosystem is an emerging high-growth speculative asset class with tokens that are exposed to similar risks as tech stocks. The upside is likely capped until risks associated with rising rates, inflation, and recession are fully discounted.Weekly Flows: Large and continuous BTC exchange net outflows for 18 of the 23 weeks this year and tight supply with 65% of tokens in circulation last moved over 1 year ago indicate investors are increasingly HODLing as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio turned negative for the first time since Mar’20 (bullish). ETH saw exchange net inflows for the 4th consecutive week with last week’s net inflows 8.8x larger than the prior week’s (bearish). The top 4 stablecoins saw exchange net outflows last week that was 4.5x larger than the prior week’s and follow net outflows for 8 of the prior 10 weeks, indicating that investors remain defensive (bearish)What can flows tell us about investor sentiment?Tokens: transfer to exchange wallets means an increase in sell pressureInvestors generally prefer to hold tokens in their personal digital asset wallets and frequently transfer them to digital asset exchange wallets (net outflow) when they intend to sell them, indicating a potential increase in sell pressure. Large inflows into exchange wallets can quickly put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, investors transfer tokens from exchange wallets to their personal wallets (net inflow) when they intend to hold them (or “hold on for dear life” (HODL)), indicating a potential decrease in sell pressure.Stablecoins: transfer to exchange wallets means a decrease in sell pressureStablecoins are digital assets pegged to another asset such as a fiat currency (like the US dollar), a commodity (like gold), other digital assets or a combination of assets with the goal of maintaining a stable value. Digital asset holders and traders use stablecoins to transfer funds between exchanges or between exchanges and personal wallets, reduce exposure to more volatile digital assets without converting digital assets back to a fiat currency, lock in gains from trading and as a safe haven if expecting a downturn or during a pullback.

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A lesson from Stan Druckenmiller: position sizes really matter

The size of each of your investments determines how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong, says investment guru Stanley Druckenmiller. Dominic Frisby explains how that’s influenced his own investments, and highlights what he’s betting on now.

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Risk Sensitive Assets Struggling to Find Demand

Equities erased yesterday’s sharp losses, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Capitol Hill about the state of monetary policy. In his remarks, Powell indicated that the American economy remains strong and is ready to absorb tighter monetary policy. He also stated that additional interest rate hikes were still appropriate and the pace of the rate hikes would depend on incoming data and the ever-changing economic outlook. Risks have rebounded sharply since Powell’s remarks, as Treasury yields across the curve have also risen sharply.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Harker said he was not ready to make a final decision on the next rate hike. According to him, it all depends on the incoming data; if demand weakens it might be appropriate to rise by 50 bps, but if not, then 75 bps may be appropriate.

In particular in Q2 2022, sentiment towards risk assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies and many other sensitive assets remained negative. There are many reasons for this, but they all boil down to high inflation worldwide, which is disrupting economic activity and causing major central banks to continue their aggressive rate hikes at the same time. The combination of weak growth and soaring inflation around the world has raised concerns over stagflation while also affecting bond markets. Globally, purchasing power has fallen sharply due to the high rise in inflation, and it is possible that the slowdown will be more worrying than expected.

Meanwhile, the commodity market has recently fallen sharply, responding to the prospect of slowing global economic growth, with China a source of concern as the main commodity importer. Repeated lockdowns have consequences for all sectors of the economy, for example by reducing the demand for metals used in the construction industry.

Technical Overview

USA100 rebounded from the 11,035 saturation point after approaching the November 2020 low around 10,955. The 4th consecutive day of gains is limited to the 50.0% FR retracement level and yet to represent a strong rally momentum for a change of direction, despite the divergence bias seen from the daily oscillations. A move to the upside needs to break the minor resistance 11,759 to test the resistance at 12,941 in the short term, otherwise the bearish outlook will remain dominant. A break of the 11,035 support would confirm a further retracement to the 61.8% FR level around 10,500, but if the weakness continues then the psychological 10,000 level will become the medium term baseline.

Bitcoin still hasn’t moved from the 20,000 level in 6 trading days. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still showing extreme fear over the past two months, the longest on record. The price is holding on to the peak of 19,470 seen in December 2017 which is currently the support. The outlook has not changed, still dominated by worries and negative sentiment. Everything is read from the price movement which is well below the 26-day moving average and the validation of the histogram oscillations in the red zone. Some argue, however, that a bearish market could provide new buying pressure for cryptocurrencies.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/#:~:text=What%20Is%20The%20Fear%20And,the%20Fear%20and%20Greed%20Index.

This fear And Greed Index, uses a numerical scale that ranges from 0 to 100 to represent sentiment. All values greater than 50 imply that investors are greedy at the moment, while values below the threshold signify a fearful market. Edge values above 75 and below 25 mean the sentiment of the holders is “extreme greed” and “extreme fear”, respectively.

Palladium has been trading downwards since hitting a peak of 3,431 this past March. Prices remain below their 26-day moving average, amid prospects for slowing industrial growth. There has been no real confirmation for the revival of prices. The daily bias tends to be flat.

Meanwhile, despite the sanctions imposed by Western countries, Russia continues to flex its muscles as a commodity provider, especially in the energy sector as oil and gas revenues enter. Switzerland imported gold and palladium from Russia for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war, suggesting that sanctions from some buyers may be easing.

Broadly speaking, the ongoing downward trend in risk sensitive assets reflects the level of investor concern about the weak and uncertain future growth prospects.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 23, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 23, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed Chair Powell: Soft Landing Very Challenging; Recession Possible Dollar Languishes Amid Lower US Yields As Recession Fears Mount Bitcoin Recovered After Prices Briefly Slipped Beneath 20,000 Level G7, NATO To Ratchet Up Pressure On Russia, Keeping Eye On China US President Biden Announces A Likely Doomed Gas Tax Holiday Biden Approval Falls Fourth Straight Week, Tying Record Low: IPSOS Fed's Evans: Another Big Rate Hike 'Reasonable' Discussion For July Fed's Harker: Interest Rates Should Reach Above 3%, Then Reassess Market Expect ECB To Hike Rates By 25bps In July & 50bps In Sep Zelenskiy Calls For Arms, EU Membership As Russia Pounds Cities Xi Vows To Meet Growth Target That Analysts Say Is Out Of Reach Japanese June Factory Activity Growth Eases On Chinese Curbs Westpac Expect RBA To Hike By Half-Point At Next Two Meetings Crude Oil Hit Again As Recession Angst Rips Through Commodities Asian Equity Markets Mostly Higher; China Tech Stocks Lead GainsThe Day Ahead Asian equity market performance was mixed overnight as investors digested yesterday’s comments from US Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress. The Hang Seng index outperformed on reports that Hong Kong is planning to reopen its borders. Powell acknowledged that a soft landing for the US economy is ‘very challenging’ and that a recession is ‘certainly a possibility’. Another 75bp rate hike by the Fed is expected next month with further, smaller, hikes priced in by markets for the remainder of the year. Preliminary ‘flash’ PMI surveys for June will be released this morning, covering the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, among others. We expect the surveys to provide further evidence that activity has softened in the face of headwinds such as higher inflation and interest rates, and the war in Ukraine. For the UK, interpreting this month’s data may be complicated by the extra Bank Holiday which, unlike regular holidays, will not be covered by the seasonal adjustment process. That may lower the level of monthly activity in manufacturing but raise it for some recreational services. Overall, look for the UK headline manufacturing index to decline to 54.2 from 54.6 and the services index to fall to 53.0 from 53.4. The CBI will also release its June distributive trades (including retail) survey at 11am. In the Eurozone, expect the manufacturing PMI to fall for a sixth month in June to 54.2. Its output component in May was only slightly above 50, weighed down by supply chain disruptions, while total orders fell below 50 for the first time in two years. For services, expect a slight decline to 55.7 leaving it firmly in growth territory. Pent-up consumer demand and a shift in spending towards services are being offset by rising costs and uncertainty. The US PMI data tend to be watched less closely than their European equivalents but will provide some insight into the latest activity and price trends. Today also sees Fed Chair Powell make his second semiannual testimony to US Congress. He will appear before a House committee after yesterday’s testimony to the Senate. Early tomorrow sees the release of the June UK GfK consumer confidence survey. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply in recent months, most likely due to higher inflation and the impact on real spending power. Look for a modest rebound for this month to -38, reflecting a Platinum Jubilee feel-good factor and also a boost from the announcement of the government’s cost of living support package. However, the reading is still expected to be close to last month’s all-time low. Also due tomorrow will be official UK retail sales figures for May and the results of the two by-elections.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0450-55 (1.18BLN), 1.0460-65 (711M) 1.0500 (1.425BLN), 1.0525-30 (338M) 1.0595-00 (990M) USD/JPY: 134.00 (641M), 135.00 (998M), 137.00 (470M) USD/CHF: 0.9550 (260M), 0.9580 (288M) 0.9630 (427M), 0.9645 (332M), 0.9700 (600M) GBP/USD: 1.2300 (429M), 1.2380 (358M), 1.2400 (726M) EUR/GBP: 0.8515 (1.19BLN), 0.8590 (230M), 0.8700 (300M) 0.8725 (627M) AUD/USD: 0.7000 (322M), 0.7025 (313M), 0.7050 (300M) NZD/USD 0.6350 (210M). USD/ZAR: 16.10 (270M) USD/CAD: 1.2800 (1.36BLN), 1.2915 (1.0BLN), 1.2935 (260M) 1.3040-50 (441M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD traded higher on Powell testimony Consolidates during the Asain session in a tight 1.0556/80 range Commodities remain pressured caping upside near term Initial offers are seen at 1.0560 ahead 1.0615 Bids eyed towards 1.0450/70 ahead of cycle lows Daily VWAP is bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. Cable continues to consolidate heading into the end of the wee 1.2232-63 Upside resistance seen by sizeable option expiries at 1.2300, 1.2370-80, 1.2400 Negative headlines UK rail strike, Brexit concerns also weigh UK CPI/RPI remain elevated markets eyeing a potential 50bps move by BOE Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 Daily VWAP is bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below XXXJPY seen offered on broader JPY profit taking Flows seen driven by M&A activity and stops being triggered Market chatter of exMOF Nakao eyeing FX intervention and a pause in BoJ YCC Sizeable $999 mln in option expiries at 135.00 strike Downside seen as corrective, importer bids seen 135.00 Daily VWAP is bullish with strong support back at 132AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD weak as commodities continue to weigh Iron ore & crude remain under pressure trading sub 2% in the Asian session AUD/USD trending lower and the initial target is the 2022 low at 0.6829 Daily VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the basse towards 0.6840’s Continued concerns regarding global growth cap upside Offers seen towards .70, bids eyed back at .6850 Daily VWAP is bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-23-2022"
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Market Update – June 23 – USD & Yields slip, Oil continues decline following Powell

USD slips from highs (USDIndex 103.80), Stocks closed flat (NASDAQ & DJIA -0.15%) Yields tanked (-4%) after Powell said FED were “strongly committed” to the inflation fight and that recession was “certainly possible”. Asian shares mixed (Hang Seng +1.64%, Nikkei +0.8%, Kospi -0.7%) Oil slumped another -2% and Gold & BTC slide sideways. Biden announced tax reprieve on gasoline, but is under increasing political pressure, Johnson faces two more by-election defeats today & national rail strikes on-going, (6th Anniversary of Brexit vote) and Scholz fears gas line shutdown and unable to speak with Putin. USDJPY cooled from new 24-year high as JPY outperformed in Asian session.

• USDIndex tested 103.60 yesterday before recovering to 104.00 now. 
• Equities – USA500 closed -4.9 (3759), US500FUTS lower at 3756 now.
• Yields 10-year yield higher, closed down -479% at 3.156% , trades at 3.18% now.   
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil slumped 2.2% to trade under $102 yesterday following Biden & Powell, back to $104.80 now.  Gold spiked to $1845 and trades at $1834 now on weaker Yields and USD.
• Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K,  trades at $20.5K now.
• FX markets – EURUSD tested 106.00 yesterday back to 1.0560,  USDJPY cooled from 136.71 yesterday to test 135.00 earlier & back to 135.83 now. Cable trades down to 1.2230 now from rally to 1.2330 yesterday . 

Overnight – Japanese Manu PMI  – miss (52.7 vs 53.5) UK Public sector borrowing hit £14bn last month, the third-highest May since 1993, and worse than the expected £11.6bn. 

Today – EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Initial Claims, Policy Announcements from Norges Bank, CBRT & Banxico, US Bank Stress Test Results, Fed’s Chair Powell Speaks at the House Finance Committee.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%). JPY out performs today with safe haven bid. Rallied from 93.20 earlier to 93.70, next resistance the significant 94.00.  MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative & still turning lower, RSI 42.45, and rising, H1 ATR 0.278, Daily ATR 1.49.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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from HF Analysis /480928/
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