GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1878.9Pivot: 1841.7Support: 1784.7Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving in a descending trendline and below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1841.7 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1784.7 at the horizontal swing low.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the pivot to the 1st resistance at 1878.9 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

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Investment Bank Outlook 27-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightIt has been a slow start to the last week of H122 for G10 FX markets, with most of the action taking place in the APAC. The JPY is indeed the marginal outperformer on the day at the time of writing, while on the other side of the spectrum, the Antipodean currencies are trailing. Risk sentiment has nonetheless been fairly supportive, with Asian equity posting gains while equity futures are also broadly flashing green. China’s growth prospects have possibly gained some marginal traction after Shanghai’s leaders declared victory over Covid on Sunday, while financial markets were not spooked by Russia’s technical default on its foreign debt. Meanwhile, oil prices have opened largely unchanged as a potential stepping up of sanctions against Russian energy is reportedly being discussed at the G7.EUR: Sintra on my mind Focus in the first half of this week will be on the ECB’s three-day central bank symposium that starts today in Sintra, Portugal. On the day, speeches by the ECB’s Francine Lagarde and Francois Villeroy will attract some attention. More evidence that the ECB is committed to containing the Eurozone inflation while shielding the EGB market, can boost the EUR’s safe-haven appeal and prop up EUR/USD at a time when growing recession fears remain the main FX market driver. Moreover, we expect evidence on Friday that the Eurozone inflation continued to accelerate aggressively further in June and thus add to the pressure on the ECB to remove accommodation and thus the EUR’s rate disadvantage.CitiEuropean OpenMarkets were choppy out of the gates, after S&P 500 posted the strongest day of the year on Friday. Equities were modestly higher in Asia, with HSI and KOSPI doing well in particular. Over in rates, the UST curve bear steepened, while China NDIRS rates pushed higher, hitting YTD highs. USD was a touch softer, while JPY strengthened modestly. KRW opened higher and continued climbing on the back of the global risk rally. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Russia has defaulted on foreign debt for the first time since 1918.Ahead, we will eye the June Sintra forum as a key avenue for central bank speak. EUR will watch several central bank speakers, while USD will receive capital goods orders data. HKD and MXN will closely watch trade balance figures. Lastly, we flag that CLP and COP will observe local holidays.What happened in markets?A choppy start to the week on Monday, following the strongest day of the year for S&P 500 on Friday. S&P eminis trade at +0.2%, after paring an early gain to +0.5%. Our futures desk notes the 3963/3964 point as the first level to watch. Elsewhere in equities, HSI has outperformed +3%, climbing after an open higher. Kospi sits at +2%G10 currencies have mostly stayed within a tight range to the dollar. The exceptions are AUD and JPY. The former sits 0.4% weaker, while the latter is +0.3% higher. More in the sections belowRates: UST curve bear steepened on Monday morning, with 2y yields up 1bp and 30y yields up 4bps. Our trader Hideyuki Liu notes that Treasuries are softer to start the weak, with RM selling spanning across the curve from 10s to 30s has had treasuries on the back-foot for most of the session. Markets were jolted lower as equity futures broke above last week highs adding further to the "buy equities, sell bonds" theme, and 10y yields now at 3.16% as the London open nears. Flows were good selling in long-end, while 10y was much more two-way as the curve remains pressured to bear steepen in continuation of last week's pain trade momentum.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 27, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 27, 2022 Overnight Headlines BIS: Leading Economies At Risk Of Falling Into High-Inflation Trap US And G-7 Allies Detail Infrastructure Plan To Challenge China KPMG: Inflation Tipped To Push UK Economy Into Recession UK Proceeds With Legislation To Change N Ireland Trading Regime BoJ Focused On Wages, Yen, No Debate On Tweaking Yield Cap China’s Economy Improves In June From Lockdown-Induced Slump China’s PBoC Makes Biggest Daily Cash Injection In Three Months China's Industrial Profits Slump For Second Month In May PBoC Adviser: China GDP Target ‘Difficult’ To Achieve Australian Treasurer Chalmers Sees Inflation ‘Problem’ Worsening Iran Launches Rocket Into Space As Nuclear Talks To Resume Russia Defaults On Foreign Debt For First Time Since 1918 Dollar Shelters Under Recession Clouds As Investors Put Safety First Crude Oil Prices Gain, Supported by Tight Supply Ecuador Energy Ministry: Oil Production Could Stop In 48 Hours G-7 Weighs Russia Oil-Price Cap Via Insurance, Shipping Ban Asian Stocks Buoyed By Wall Street Gains, Futures Follow Suit Tesla, Ford and GM Raise EV Prices as Costs, Demand Grow Bitcoin Stable Over The Weekend Above 21,000 JPMorgan: BTC Miners To Sell BTC Into Q3The Day Ahead Equities have started the week on a positive note with almost all stock exchanges across the Asia-Pacific region registering gains. This continues to reflect the positive risk sentiment backdrop that has prevailed of late in response to the scaling back in interest rate expectations globally. Meanwhile, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, largely a result of Western sanctions that had shut down payment routes for the nation. G7 leaders at their summit in Bavaria are expected to commit to providing support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” according to a draft statement. Over the past week, signs of moderating economic activity saw financial markets scale back on their expectations over the extent to which monetary policy will be tightened. Nevertheless, money markets continue to forecast US policy rates to rise above 3.5% by the middle of next year, while UK Bank Rate is expected to rise a further 175bp over the same period, in a bid to bear down on elevated inflationary pressures. How much central bankers should raise interest rates, in the face of slowing economic growth, will be a key focal point at this week’s ECB forum in Sintra (Portugal) entitled ‘Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world’, which kicks off later today, with ECB President Christine Lagarde set to deliver opening remarks. Ahead of the Ms Lagarde’s comments this evening, ECB member Villeroy (Governor of the Bank of France) is scheduled to speak this morning. In comments last week, Mr Villeroy reiterated a commitment to do what was needed to bring inflation back to target in 2024, supporting expectations that eurozone policy rates will be lifted out of negative territory. Data wise, the economic calendar is fairly limited. However, pending home sales in the US are forecast to have fallen for a seventh consecutive month in May, as higher rates continue to dampen activity in the housing sector. Meanwhile, the US durable goods orders report for May will be watched for signs that business investment has softened in the second quarter, also in response to the ongoing increases in US interest rates.IMM: USD net spec long rises as CAD, EUR selling trumps yen buyingUSD net spec long rose in Jun 15-21 period; $IDX -0.22%...EUR specs -9,587 contracts now short 15,605; EUR$ +1.09% in periodYen specs -11,301 contracts now -58,454; specs buy into yen weaknessGBP$ +2.35% in period, GBP specs buy 2,349 contracts now -63,247$CAD -0.25% in period, specs -19,097 contracts now long -4,105AUD & NZD specs pare shorts AUD specs +2,648, NZD specs +1,415 contractsBTC -5.13% in period anchored by $20k, specs -15 contracts now long 1,046,(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0445-55 (983M) USD/JPY: 134.50 (375M), 135.00 (363M), 137.00 (450M) AUD/USD: 0.7050 (284M). USD/CAD: 1.2820 (200M) 1.2870-75 (200M) Tuesday June 28 EUR/USD: 1.0450-60 (600M), 1.0595-00 (736M) USD/JPY: 135.00 (350M). GBP/USD: 1.2185 (247M) USD/CHF: 0.9425 (480M), 0.9550 (471M), 0.9645 (260M) EUR/CHF: 1.00 (280M), 1.0125 (276M), 1.0200 (280M) AUD/USD: 0.7000-05 (378M), 0.7040-50 (423M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD trades above Friday’s highs 1.0570’s EUR/USD resistance is at the 21-day MA at 1.0593 and break would be bullish EUR/USD bid supported by improvement in risk sentiment Market eyeing ECB and Fed comments as ECB summit in Sintra starts Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids eyed towards 1.05/15 ahead of cycle lows 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP catches a bid in early LDN trade testing Friday’s highs No GBP data cable taking its lead form generally improved risk sentiment Tomorrow notable options expiries GBP/USD 1.2000 GBP664 mln and on Wednesday sizeable GBP1.5 bln at 1.2750 Despite ongoing negative headlines, weak econ data, strikes & partygate GBP holds up Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below USDJPY took an early hit in Asian trade on Exporter sales USD/JPY recovers 135 handle as LDN gets underway Importer bids seen sitting toward 134.50 Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off Friday US yields firming supporting USDJPY Global equity sentiment continues to strengthen 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opens the week with a bid tone Aussie supported by recovery in risk and commodities 3.2% pop in Iron ore sees AUD testing Friday’s highs 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

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The benefits of private equity are about to get tested

Private equity has grown ever more popular in recent years. But its touted benefits are set to be tested, says John Stepek.

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Three stocks to buy that line up with Warren Buffett’s investment principles

Professional investor Keith Ashworth-Lord of Sanford DeLand picks three high-quality companies that align with the principles of investment guru Warren Buffett.

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Why a recession will do us good

A period of slimming down is always painful, but it leaves us healthier for the long run, says Matthew Lynn.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605024/why-a-recession-will-do-us-good
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Vitalik Buterin: the man who changed cryptocurrencies

Maths prodigy Vitalik Buterin became fascinated by bitcoin as a teenager. Now 28, he is worshipped as a near deity by crypto-enthusiasts.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/605014/vitalik-buterin-profile
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Rail strikes and the summer of discontent – who's to blame?

The rail workers are all out and look likely to continue through the summer. Comrades in other unions are joining the strikers. Who is to blame?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605025/rail-strikes-and-the-summer-of-discontent
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EURCHF set to clear 1.01?

The Swiss Franc has been one of the strongest currencies this month with only the USD doing better, albeit by a small margin, supported by strong risk-off flows which has seen Equities and Commodity prices fall strongly so far in June – US500.F  fell about 11% before paring some of its losses this week while USOil is down about 3.7% in June.

The Swiss National Bank was hawkish in in their meeting last week, where they raised interest rates for the first time in 15 years by 50 basis points to -0.25% to counter inflationary pressures, which printed 2.9% in May. This move shows the SNB has learnt a lesson from the inflation situation in other major economies and are willing to act to curb inflation before it runs rampant.

Markets have since priced in a nearly 100% expectation for a 50 bps hike and are currently expecting a 66% chance of a 75 bps hike as the SNB implied that further rate increases should be expected. The ECB on the other hand have a lot on their plate, with fragmentation risk among European countries as highly indebted nations like Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain may struggle with higher interest rates more than others and this may see more inflow into the Franc through the EURCHF rates, especially after the SNB implied they were more accepting of a stronger Franc.

The Swiss economy has remained resilient despite headwinds from the tension between Russia and Ukraine which has strongly increased the cost of energy. Switzerland imports over 70% of its energy consumption and the COVID situation in China dampened demand from Switzerland’s 3^rd largest trade partner after the EU and United States. Q1 GDP grew to 0.5% above market expectations, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May was 2.1%, down from 2.3% in April and the inflation rate grew to 0.7% in May, taking the annual rate to 2.9%.

Over the coming weeks, we could see further strength in the Swiss Franc, considering the hawkish pivot from the SNB and expectations to hike rates further, the bank’s willingness to accept a stronger Franc – although the bank also noted that they are willing to be active in the Forex market which means intervention if the CHF gathers too much strength – and the expectation for global economic slowdown amid central bank tightening, which supports the currency as a safe haven.

#EURCHF is down about 1.8% so far this month after initially climbing 2.3% as risk off sentiment and SNB action spurred the downside. After a tight range from late last week, the pair has finally made its way to the 1.01 support level again which held as previous cycle low going back to mid-April. #EURCHF currently trades below all three daily MAs, after breaking the year’s ascending channel last week. The retest of the 1.01 level could attract more bears that may  take the price to 0.997 which is the lowest point on the pair since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank announced the end of the EURCHF peg. Alternatively, an improvement in risk sentiment, jawboning by the SNB or effective action by the ECB to counter fragmentation risk could see the pair pare some of the losses recorded this month as it currently trades in the oversold region heading into the end of the first half of the year.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Heritage Adisa

Market Analyst – Educational Office – Nigeria

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 24, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 24, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Equity Markets Broadly Higher; US And EU Futures Also Rise UK Conservatives Lose Key District In Major Blow To PM Johnson UK Consumer Confidence Falls To Lowest Since Records Began Powell Hammers Home Unconditional’ Commitment To Cool Prices Fed’s Bowman Backs Raising Funds Rate By 75 Basis Points In July US Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way For Shareholder Payouts US Meets With Refiners On High Pump Prices But No Plan Yet EU Leaders Vote To Grant Ukraine And Moldova Candidate Status ECB’s Kazimir: The ECB Rate May Be At 1.5-2.0% In A Years’ Time China Central Bank Raises Cash Injection To Keep Liquidity Stable Japanese Consumer Inflation Tops BoJ Target For Second Month OPEC+ To Stick To Oil Supply Rise Plan As Biden Heads To Saudi US Dollar Stumbles As Interest Rate Path Fuels Recession Worries Bitcoin Rangebound Remains Above Recently Reclaimed 20,000 levelThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets chalked up gains as US Treasury yields fall with attention appearing to be shifting towards the loss of economic momentum and a potential near-term peak in inflation. While US policy rates are expected to rise significantly further this year, market pricing currently points to rate cuts around the middle of next year. In the UK, data released overnight showed consumer confidence in the GfK survey fall to an all-time low of -41 in June, weighed by the squeeze on incomes from high inflation. Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost both by elections in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton. Party Chairman Oliver Dowden resigned. Just released official UK data showed the volume of retail sales decline by 0.5% in May while the previous month’s rise was revised lower. Sales volumes fell in predominantly food stores, linked to higher prices, and were flat in other (non-food) stores. In the year-on-year comparison, the volume of sales fell by 4.7%. However, in nominal terms (actual pounds spent), retail sales were up 5.0%. That suggests high inflation is resulting in consumers paying more for less goods. The German IFO survey of businesses will be released this morning. It has so far shown some degree of resilience in the economy in the face of supply bottlenecks, rising costs and the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, confidence fell sharply in March and, despite slight rises in April and May, it remains below levels at the start of the year and is consistent with a slowdown in economic activity. For June, anticipate the headline index to remain steady at 93.0. It is worth noting that yesterday’s flash PMIs for Germany were weaker. In the US, latest data for new home sales will attract some attention, particularly as higher interest rates cool the housing market. Also due is the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The preliminary reading showed sentiment falling to an all-time low of 50.2, while longer-term inflation expectations rose to a 14-year high. On the central bank speaker front, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Pill and external MPC member Haskel will speak at separate events this afternoon. Pill’s speech on ‘Challenges for Monetary Policy after Covid-19’ may attract particular attention. US Fed speakers include St Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) on central banks and inflation.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400 (670M), 1.0420-30 (674M), 1.0450 (574M) 1.0495-00 (1.15BLN), 1.0520-30 (365M), 1.0575 (275M) 1.0600 (483M), 10660 (560M) USD/CHF: 0.9600 (240M), 0.9700 (540M). AUD/JPY: 95.60 (407M) AUD/USD: 0.6900 (923M), 0.6980 (229M), 0.7000 (290M) USD/CAD: 1.2850 (390M), 1.2900 (230M), 1.2950 (400M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD trades in a subdued fashion as PMI data continues to weigh Support coming from slower Asian session and bid in risk sentiment Bulls to challenge 1.06 into the end of the week adding support to daily double bottom German IFO main release of note and will likely drive sentiment short term Initial offers are seen at 1.0560 ahead 1.0615 Bids eyed towards 1.0450/70 ahead of cycle lows 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP continues to trade in a tight range, election news does little to excite the market Despite ongoing negative headlines, weak econ data, strikes & partygate GBP holds up Trading should pick up as LDN session starts, traders likely to square books into W/end Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below JPY retains broad-based bid USD/JPY offered as LDN session gets underway Giving back gains after Gotobi Tokyo fix bids have been absorbed Japanese importer bids seen below 134.50 DTTC option expiries Monday 134.50, 135.00 strikes US yields off lows but retain an offered tone Global equity sentiment improves overnight 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below Rotates around 0.6900 in slower Asian session Soft commodities continue to weigh Near term resistance site at .6950/60 How commodities close out the week will likely drive AUD action 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

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Market Update – June 24 – USD & Yields slips, Stocks tick higher

USD slips from highs (USDIndex 104.00), Stocks closed higher (NASDAQ +1.62%) Yields slipped again (-1.66%) after no new news from Powell  Asian shares stronger  (Hang Seng +2.24%, Nikkei +1.23%) Oil holds at lows, Gold dipped & BTC picked up. Ukraine gained EU candidacy status. UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives lost the two by-elections, triggering the resignation of  Party Chairman Dowden. European Futs +1.0%. USDJPY cooled further as NZD & AUD outperformed in Asian session.

• USDIndex tested 104.50 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now. 
• Equities – USA500 closed +35 (3795), US500FUTS higher at 3824 now.
• Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 3.133% , trades at 3.018% now.   
• Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $106.80 before slipping back to $104.50 now. Gold spiked to $1845 again but trades at $1822 now on weaker Yields and USD.
• Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K,  trades at $20.7k now from a test of 21k.
• FX markets – EURUSD tested 105.00 yesterday back to 1.0536,  USDJPY cooled again to 134.60 now. Cable trades at 1.2270 now, from lows at 1.2170 yesterday, despite by-election results and weak Retail Sales data, UK recession risks are stacking up.

Overnight – Japanese Core CPI inline & unchanged (2.1%) SPPI hotter (1.8%) UK Retail Sales  a tick better than expected (-0.5% vs -0.6%) but down significantly from 1.4% last month. 

Today – German Ifo, US New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard & Daly, ECB’s de Cos, BoE’s Pill, 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.49%). NZD out performs today. Rallied from 0.62500 test yesterday to 0.6300 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 56.58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00843.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

 

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ES1!, H4 | Potential Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish Breakout Key Levels:Resistance: 4202.25 Pivot: 3827.75 Support: 3654.00Preference: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 3827.75 in line with the pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st resistance at 4202.25 in line with the swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to 1st support at 3654.00 at the horizontal swing low in line with 78.6% fibonacci projection.

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EURUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish Bounce Key Levels:Resistance: 1.07724 Pivot: 1.04691 Support: 1.03514Preference: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1.04691 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement and pullback support to the 1st resistance at 1.07724 in line with the horizontal swing high and 100% fibonacci projection. Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 1.03514 in line with the multiple swing low and 61.8% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation24"
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 138.669 Pivot: 134.729 Support: 131.492Preference: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 134.729 in line with the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 138.669 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price may break support structure at the pivot and head for 1st support at 131.492 in line with the swing low support, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

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