DXY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 104.941Pivot: 103.404 Support: 102.747Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices expected to bounce off ichimoku support and prices moving along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that bullish momentum will carry prices from our pivot at 103.404 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection, 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are, after price has dropped to the pivot level, to our 1st resistance at 104.941 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Take note of intermediate support at 103.928 where the swing low support is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 102.747 where the horizontal overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.

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NK2251!, H4 | Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 28328.52Pivot: 26861.34Support: 25980.72Preferred Case:On the H4, with price bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and moving in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 26861.34 in line with the pullback support and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 28328.52 in line with the multiple swing high and 100% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 25980.72 in line with the pullback support .

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Market Update – June 28 – Month-, Quarter- and Half Year End Trades?

USD underpressure (USDIndex 103.40), Stocks mixed overnight, but up currently into EU open. Yields were sunk by two poor note auctions after an early risk-on bid weighed on the bond market. JGB yields rose on, with the yield curve widening to its steepest level since 2015. Oil up at 111.45, Gold steady. US Durables report & pending home sales surprised on the high side, while the Dallas Fed index plunged. Today’s German consumer confidence not as bad as feared but the headline looks worse than it did during the pandemic and the resulting pressure on consumption will add to recession risks not just in Germany.

• USDIndex down to 103.40, as cautious investors headed for safety and the US Dollar was capped, although overall levels don’t look very different to last morning. 
• Equities – Nikkei and ASX closed with gains of 0.7% and 0.9%. Wall Street stumbled and lost traction with the USA100 falling -0.72%. The USA500 was down -0.30%, and the USA30 lost -0.20%.  
• Yields 10-year was up about 9 bps to test 3.21% but ended at 3.194%.
• Oil extends gains  – $111.38.  Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates looked unlikely to be able to boost output significantly while political unrest in Libya and Ecuador added to those supply concerns. – both produced at maximum capacity.
• Gold pullback to $1,827.
• FX Markets – EURUSD retests the  1.06 barrier,  USDJPY is at 135.68, Cable trades at 1.2290 now, ranging since Friday. 

Today – Focus is on ECB President Lagarde at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal and US Consumer Confidence later on.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.69%). Broke 3-day’s peak and trades above 94.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines are positive configurated, RSI 67 but flattened. H1 ATR 0.214, Daily ATR 1.507.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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S4 Capital – a company that still has much to prove

Audit delays set shares tumbling at advertising agency S4 Capital. It needs to show it can turn growth into profits, says Bruce Packard.

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A Europe-focused investment trust that’s back on form

Alex Darwall’s European Opportunities investment trust deserves another look after a difficult spell, says Max King.

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SILVER FUTURES (Sl1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 22.565Pivot: 21.495Support: 20.840Preferred Case:On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 21.495 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to intermediate resistance at 21.955 in line with swing high resistance and 127.8% fibonacci extension . Should price break intermediate resistance, we would have a bullish bias that price will rise to 1st resistance at 22.565 where swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop 1st support at 20.840 in line with the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on silver .

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Wells Fargo: The Winner Out of US Bank Stocks

Recent weakening of commodity prices and signs of slowing economic growth tempered market expectation over the Fed’s rate hike. Among metals, copper suffered the largest weekly fall within the year, at over -6%. In energy sector, UK gas and natural gas are down over 15% and 10% respectively, while crude oil also closed lower for the third consecutive week, down nearly 2%. Some products from agricultural and industrial sectors were also down (Source: Trading Economics).

Signs of economic recession hit market sentiment; participants are now pricing in for the benchmark rate to 3.5% (previously 4.0%) by March next year. Rising recession risk in general affects the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy, thus lifting the Wall Street’s main indices: S&P500 up +3.46% to 3912, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones were up 3.75% and 3.03% to 12087 and 31482, respectively. “All 11 of the benchmark index’s sectors ended at least 1.5% higher”.

In addition, most of the US banks stock prices surged higher following the sector passing the Fed’s annual stress test – a report that probes a bank’s capability to maintain enough capital to weather a severe economic downturn. Unlike some major banks, which are expected to increase their stress capital buffers (SCB), Wells Fargo SCB is likely to remain almost unchanged from last year – This explains Wells Fargo being the winner out of its rivals, with gains over 6% intraday.

Wells Fargo is expected to release its Q2/2022 earnings announcement on 15^th July. Market consensus for sales revenue stood at $17.79B, up +1.14% (q/q) but down -13.9% (y/y). Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to hit $0.92, up 4.55% from previous quarter but down nearly 49% from the same period last year.

Technical Analysis: 

The Daily chart displayed #WellsFargo rebounded higher after gaining its foot above $35.86 – $36.53. In a bigger picture, the bank’s stock price remains traded in a bearish trend. To further clarify technical correction, it must break the nearest resistance at $40.53, followed by minor resistance at $42.14 and the $45.19-$45.61 resistance zone. The 100-day SMA serves as an important indicator in which a strong bullish break (sustain and without a strong retrace afterward) above it may indicate a change in medium-long term direction. On the other hand, if bullish breakout unsuccessful, the downward trend may resume towards testing support $35.86-$38.53, followed by psychological level $34.00 and $29.22.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Market Update – June 27 – More of an Equities Story Today

USD drop below the 104 mark (USDIndex 103.70), Stocks led the rise in Asian equity indexes, with news that the PBOC made the largest cash injection in three months. Yields (+3.17%) up as markets continue to weigh recession risks and central bank outlooks. Oil corrected at 107.46, Gold  higher and BTC steady.  Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918. The grace period on two eurobond coupons worth around $100 million expired on Sunday, according to Bloomberg, which means the country is officially in default.

• USDIndex down to 103.70 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now. 
• Equities – Hang Seng rallied 2.5%, the CSI300 is up 1.3%, while JPN225 and ASX closed with gains of 1.5% and 1.9% respectively, the latter boosted also by energy companies. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.5% and US futures have pared earlier losses and are posting fractional gains.
• Yields 10-year is up 3.8 bp at 3.17%, the 10-year Bund yield has gained 4.1 bp and is at 1.47% as markets continue to weigh recession risks and central bank outlooks.
• Oil & Gold higher to $107.60 and $1,835.16 respectively. – Brent saw levels below USD 112 amid concern of waning demand amid slowing world growth
• Bitcoin flat at $21,227.
• FX Markets – EURUSD is at 1.0556,  USDJPY fractionally above 135, Cable trades at 1.2290 now, ranging since Friday. 
• Reuters:
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of the US economy tipping into recession over the next year – versus 15% earlier – while Morgan Stanley places US recession odds for the next 12 months at around 35%.
  • Citi forecasts a near-50% probability of global recession.

Today – Focus is on US Durable goods but also on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data on Thursday for further confirmation that price pressures remain heated. Chinese factory activity data due to be released later this week could provide a guide as to whether the world’s second-largest economy is finding momentum again after the disruption caused by strict COVID-19 lockdown measures.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.83%). Rallied from 1.7650 to 1.7765. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram at neutral, RSI 54.63 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00324, Daily ATR 0.01633.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /481923/
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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1878.9Pivot: 1841.7Support: 1784.7Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving in a descending trendline and below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1841.7 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1784.7 at the horizontal swing low.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the pivot to the 1st resistance at 1878.9 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

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Investment Bank Outlook 27-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnightIt has been a slow start to the last week of H122 for G10 FX markets, with most of the action taking place in the APAC. The JPY is indeed the marginal outperformer on the day at the time of writing, while on the other side of the spectrum, the Antipodean currencies are trailing. Risk sentiment has nonetheless been fairly supportive, with Asian equity posting gains while equity futures are also broadly flashing green. China’s growth prospects have possibly gained some marginal traction after Shanghai’s leaders declared victory over Covid on Sunday, while financial markets were not spooked by Russia’s technical default on its foreign debt. Meanwhile, oil prices have opened largely unchanged as a potential stepping up of sanctions against Russian energy is reportedly being discussed at the G7.EUR: Sintra on my mind Focus in the first half of this week will be on the ECB’s three-day central bank symposium that starts today in Sintra, Portugal. On the day, speeches by the ECB’s Francine Lagarde and Francois Villeroy will attract some attention. More evidence that the ECB is committed to containing the Eurozone inflation while shielding the EGB market, can boost the EUR’s safe-haven appeal and prop up EUR/USD at a time when growing recession fears remain the main FX market driver. Moreover, we expect evidence on Friday that the Eurozone inflation continued to accelerate aggressively further in June and thus add to the pressure on the ECB to remove accommodation and thus the EUR’s rate disadvantage.CitiEuropean OpenMarkets were choppy out of the gates, after S&P 500 posted the strongest day of the year on Friday. Equities were modestly higher in Asia, with HSI and KOSPI doing well in particular. Over in rates, the UST curve bear steepened, while China NDIRS rates pushed higher, hitting YTD highs. USD was a touch softer, while JPY strengthened modestly. KRW opened higher and continued climbing on the back of the global risk rally. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Russia has defaulted on foreign debt for the first time since 1918.Ahead, we will eye the June Sintra forum as a key avenue for central bank speak. EUR will watch several central bank speakers, while USD will receive capital goods orders data. HKD and MXN will closely watch trade balance figures. Lastly, we flag that CLP and COP will observe local holidays.What happened in markets?A choppy start to the week on Monday, following the strongest day of the year for S&P 500 on Friday. S&P eminis trade at +0.2%, after paring an early gain to +0.5%. Our futures desk notes the 3963/3964 point as the first level to watch. Elsewhere in equities, HSI has outperformed +3%, climbing after an open higher. Kospi sits at +2%G10 currencies have mostly stayed within a tight range to the dollar. The exceptions are AUD and JPY. The former sits 0.4% weaker, while the latter is +0.3% higher. More in the sections belowRates: UST curve bear steepened on Monday morning, with 2y yields up 1bp and 30y yields up 4bps. Our trader Hideyuki Liu notes that Treasuries are softer to start the weak, with RM selling spanning across the curve from 10s to 30s has had treasuries on the back-foot for most of the session. Markets were jolted lower as equity futures broke above last week highs adding further to the "buy equities, sell bonds" theme, and 10y yields now at 3.16% as the London open nears. Flows were good selling in long-end, while 10y was much more two-way as the curve remains pressured to bear steepen in continuation of last week's pain trade momentum.

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Daily Market Outlook, June 27, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 27, 2022 Overnight Headlines BIS: Leading Economies At Risk Of Falling Into High-Inflation Trap US And G-7 Allies Detail Infrastructure Plan To Challenge China KPMG: Inflation Tipped To Push UK Economy Into Recession UK Proceeds With Legislation To Change N Ireland Trading Regime BoJ Focused On Wages, Yen, No Debate On Tweaking Yield Cap China’s Economy Improves In June From Lockdown-Induced Slump China’s PBoC Makes Biggest Daily Cash Injection In Three Months China's Industrial Profits Slump For Second Month In May PBoC Adviser: China GDP Target ‘Difficult’ To Achieve Australian Treasurer Chalmers Sees Inflation ‘Problem’ Worsening Iran Launches Rocket Into Space As Nuclear Talks To Resume Russia Defaults On Foreign Debt For First Time Since 1918 Dollar Shelters Under Recession Clouds As Investors Put Safety First Crude Oil Prices Gain, Supported by Tight Supply Ecuador Energy Ministry: Oil Production Could Stop In 48 Hours G-7 Weighs Russia Oil-Price Cap Via Insurance, Shipping Ban Asian Stocks Buoyed By Wall Street Gains, Futures Follow Suit Tesla, Ford and GM Raise EV Prices as Costs, Demand Grow Bitcoin Stable Over The Weekend Above 21,000 JPMorgan: BTC Miners To Sell BTC Into Q3The Day Ahead Equities have started the week on a positive note with almost all stock exchanges across the Asia-Pacific region registering gains. This continues to reflect the positive risk sentiment backdrop that has prevailed of late in response to the scaling back in interest rate expectations globally. Meanwhile, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, largely a result of Western sanctions that had shut down payment routes for the nation. G7 leaders at their summit in Bavaria are expected to commit to providing support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” according to a draft statement. Over the past week, signs of moderating economic activity saw financial markets scale back on their expectations over the extent to which monetary policy will be tightened. Nevertheless, money markets continue to forecast US policy rates to rise above 3.5% by the middle of next year, while UK Bank Rate is expected to rise a further 175bp over the same period, in a bid to bear down on elevated inflationary pressures. How much central bankers should raise interest rates, in the face of slowing economic growth, will be a key focal point at this week’s ECB forum in Sintra (Portugal) entitled ‘Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world’, which kicks off later today, with ECB President Christine Lagarde set to deliver opening remarks. Ahead of the Ms Lagarde’s comments this evening, ECB member Villeroy (Governor of the Bank of France) is scheduled to speak this morning. In comments last week, Mr Villeroy reiterated a commitment to do what was needed to bring inflation back to target in 2024, supporting expectations that eurozone policy rates will be lifted out of negative territory. Data wise, the economic calendar is fairly limited. However, pending home sales in the US are forecast to have fallen for a seventh consecutive month in May, as higher rates continue to dampen activity in the housing sector. Meanwhile, the US durable goods orders report for May will be watched for signs that business investment has softened in the second quarter, also in response to the ongoing increases in US interest rates.IMM: USD net spec long rises as CAD, EUR selling trumps yen buyingUSD net spec long rose in Jun 15-21 period; $IDX -0.22%...EUR specs -9,587 contracts now short 15,605; EUR$ +1.09% in periodYen specs -11,301 contracts now -58,454; specs buy into yen weaknessGBP$ +2.35% in period, GBP specs buy 2,349 contracts now -63,247$CAD -0.25% in period, specs -19,097 contracts now long -4,105AUD & NZD specs pare shorts AUD specs +2,648, NZD specs +1,415 contractsBTC -5.13% in period anchored by $20k, specs -15 contracts now long 1,046,(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0445-55 (983M) USD/JPY: 134.50 (375M), 135.00 (363M), 137.00 (450M) AUD/USD: 0.7050 (284M). USD/CAD: 1.2820 (200M) 1.2870-75 (200M) Tuesday June 28 EUR/USD: 1.0450-60 (600M), 1.0595-00 (736M) USD/JPY: 135.00 (350M). GBP/USD: 1.2185 (247M) USD/CHF: 0.9425 (480M), 0.9550 (471M), 0.9645 (260M) EUR/CHF: 1.00 (280M), 1.0125 (276M), 1.0200 (280M) AUD/USD: 0.7000-05 (378M), 0.7040-50 (423M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD trades above Friday’s highs 1.0570’s EUR/USD resistance is at the 21-day MA at 1.0593 and break would be bullish EUR/USD bid supported by improvement in risk sentiment Market eyeing ECB and Fed comments as ECB summit in Sintra starts Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids eyed towards 1.05/15 ahead of cycle lows 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP catches a bid in early LDN trade testing Friday’s highs No GBP data cable taking its lead form generally improved risk sentiment Tomorrow notable options expiries GBP/USD 1.2000 GBP664 mln and on Wednesday sizeable GBP1.5 bln at 1.2750 Despite ongoing negative headlines, weak econ data, strikes & partygate GBP holds up Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2180 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below USDJPY took an early hit in Asian trade on Exporter sales USD/JPY recovers 135 handle as LDN gets underway Importer bids seen sitting toward 134.50 Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off Friday US yields firming supporting USDJPY Global equity sentiment continues to strengthen 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD/USD opens the week with a bid tone Aussie supported by recovery in risk and commodities 3.2% pop in Iron ore sees AUD testing Friday’s highs 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

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The benefits of private equity are about to get tested

Private equity has grown ever more popular in recent years. But its touted benefits are set to be tested, says John Stepek.

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Three stocks to buy that line up with Warren Buffett’s investment principles

Professional investor Keith Ashworth-Lord of Sanford DeLand picks three high-quality companies that align with the principles of investment guru Warren Buffett.

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Why a recession will do us good

A period of slimming down is always painful, but it leaves us healthier for the long run, says Matthew Lynn.

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