Market Update – June 29 – Equities in a Sell Off

USD recoves (USDIndex 104.60) after stumble on auction data, Stocks down as weaker than expected confidence data, a plunge in the Richmond Fed index and donwdraft of big tech were catalysts for some selling (USA100 tumbled -2.98%, -28% for the year). US blacklists Chinese companies for allegedly supporting Russian army. Yields richened led by the long end with the 10-year ending 2 bps lower at 3.18%. Weakness has spilled over from European bonds after hawkish ECBspeak from Lagarde and others that has seen core rates jump over 10 bps. Lagarde confirmed the bank’s commitment to rate hikes in July and September. Finland, Sweden nearer Nato Membership. China would cut mainland coronavirus quarantine requirements for all arrivals. Oil at 111.20, Gold down.

• USDIndex up to 104.60, by safe-haven flows
• Equities – USA100 tumbled -2.98% with the USA500 losing -2.01%, and the USA30 down -1.56%. JPN225 fell 0.98%, Hang Seng is currently down -1.8%, the CSI 300 -1.1%.
  
• Yields 10-year rate down -3.9 bp at 3.12%. Bund futures are also rallying.
• Oil topped to $112.20, currently at $111.20. – Market tussled between concerns about the global economy and tight global oil supplies.
• Gold down to $1,817. US bans new imports of Russian gold & Fed policymakers promise further rapid interest-rate hikes.
• Bitcoin broke 20K!
• FX Markets – EURUSD remains below the 1.06 mark and is again eyeing the 20-year low of 1.038, USDJPY is at 135.86, Cable trades at 1.2175 down from 1.2290. 

Today – Focus is on Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence , US Q1 GDP but mainly on Fedspeakers and ECB Speakers.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (-1.49%). Below 20K again. MAs aligning lower, MACD lines & RSI are negatively configurated. H1 ATR 186.639, Daily ATR 1825.737.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Indulge your wild side with a safari in deepest Kent

Get up close to the animals at Port Lympne Hotel and Reserve, says Matthew Partridge

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How to find the best stocks with dividends

Stocks that pay dividends tend to outperform the market over the long run - as well as providing an income. Here, Rupert Hargreaves explains the best ways to find dividend stocks, and lists his top ten dividend-payers on the UK market now.

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JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 0.0074895Pivot: 0.0074195Support: 0.0073570Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.0074195 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.0073570 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0074895 where the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:Yen weakness could continue, evident with the USDJPY rebounding from support to trade above 135 overnight, giving us a weak bearish bias towards yen.

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NZDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.63957Pivot: 0.62931Support: 0.62466Preferred Case:On the H4, with price recently breaking the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 0.62931 in line with the pullback support to the 1st resistance at 0.63957 in line with the swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.62466 at the swing low in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection

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USDCAD, H4 | Potential For Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.3018Pivot: 1.28596Support: 1.27179Preferred Case:On the H4, with price expected to bounce off ichimoku support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.28596 where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st resistance at 1.3018 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 1st support at 1.27179 where the horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement .

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DXY, H4 | Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 104.941Pivot: 103.404 Support: 102.747Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices expected to bounce off ichimoku support and prices moving along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that bullish momentum will carry prices from our pivot at 103.404 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection, 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are, after price has dropped to the pivot level, to our 1st resistance at 104.941 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Take note of intermediate support at 103.928 where the swing low support is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 102.747 where the horizontal overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.

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NK2251!, H4 | Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 28328.52Pivot: 26861.34Support: 25980.72Preferred Case:On the H4, with price bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and moving in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 26861.34 in line with the pullback support and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 28328.52 in line with the multiple swing high and 100% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 25980.72 in line with the pullback support .

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Market Update – June 28 – Month-, Quarter- and Half Year End Trades?

USD underpressure (USDIndex 103.40), Stocks mixed overnight, but up currently into EU open. Yields were sunk by two poor note auctions after an early risk-on bid weighed on the bond market. JGB yields rose on, with the yield curve widening to its steepest level since 2015. Oil up at 111.45, Gold steady. US Durables report & pending home sales surprised on the high side, while the Dallas Fed index plunged. Today’s German consumer confidence not as bad as feared but the headline looks worse than it did during the pandemic and the resulting pressure on consumption will add to recession risks not just in Germany.

• USDIndex down to 103.40, as cautious investors headed for safety and the US Dollar was capped, although overall levels don’t look very different to last morning. 
• Equities – Nikkei and ASX closed with gains of 0.7% and 0.9%. Wall Street stumbled and lost traction with the USA100 falling -0.72%. The USA500 was down -0.30%, and the USA30 lost -0.20%.  
• Yields 10-year was up about 9 bps to test 3.21% but ended at 3.194%.
• Oil extends gains  – $111.38.  Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates looked unlikely to be able to boost output significantly while political unrest in Libya and Ecuador added to those supply concerns. – both produced at maximum capacity.
• Gold pullback to $1,827.
• FX Markets – EURUSD retests the  1.06 barrier,  USDJPY is at 135.68, Cable trades at 1.2290 now, ranging since Friday. 

Today – Focus is on ECB President Lagarde at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal and US Consumer Confidence later on.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.69%). Broke 3-day’s peak and trades above 94.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines are positive configurated, RSI 67 but flattened. H1 ATR 0.214, Daily ATR 1.507.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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S4 Capital – a company that still has much to prove

Audit delays set shares tumbling at advertising agency S4 Capital. It needs to show it can turn growth into profits, says Bruce Packard.

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A Europe-focused investment trust that’s back on form

Alex Darwall’s European Opportunities investment trust deserves another look after a difficult spell, says Max King.

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SILVER FUTURES (Sl1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 22.565Pivot: 21.495Support: 20.840Preferred Case:On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 21.495 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to intermediate resistance at 21.955 in line with swing high resistance and 127.8% fibonacci extension . Should price break intermediate resistance, we would have a bullish bias that price will rise to 1st resistance at 22.565 where swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop 1st support at 20.840 in line with the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci projection .Fundamentals:As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on silver .

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Wells Fargo: The Winner Out of US Bank Stocks

Recent weakening of commodity prices and signs of slowing economic growth tempered market expectation over the Fed’s rate hike. Among metals, copper suffered the largest weekly fall within the year, at over -6%. In energy sector, UK gas and natural gas are down over 15% and 10% respectively, while crude oil also closed lower for the third consecutive week, down nearly 2%. Some products from agricultural and industrial sectors were also down (Source: Trading Economics).

Signs of economic recession hit market sentiment; participants are now pricing in for the benchmark rate to 3.5% (previously 4.0%) by March next year. Rising recession risk in general affects the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy, thus lifting the Wall Street’s main indices: S&P500 up +3.46% to 3912, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones were up 3.75% and 3.03% to 12087 and 31482, respectively. “All 11 of the benchmark index’s sectors ended at least 1.5% higher”.

In addition, most of the US banks stock prices surged higher following the sector passing the Fed’s annual stress test – a report that probes a bank’s capability to maintain enough capital to weather a severe economic downturn. Unlike some major banks, which are expected to increase their stress capital buffers (SCB), Wells Fargo SCB is likely to remain almost unchanged from last year – This explains Wells Fargo being the winner out of its rivals, with gains over 6% intraday.

Wells Fargo is expected to release its Q2/2022 earnings announcement on 15^th July. Market consensus for sales revenue stood at $17.79B, up +1.14% (q/q) but down -13.9% (y/y). Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to hit $0.92, up 4.55% from previous quarter but down nearly 49% from the same period last year.

Technical Analysis: 

The Daily chart displayed #WellsFargo rebounded higher after gaining its foot above $35.86 – $36.53. In a bigger picture, the bank’s stock price remains traded in a bearish trend. To further clarify technical correction, it must break the nearest resistance at $40.53, followed by minor resistance at $42.14 and the $45.19-$45.61 resistance zone. The 100-day SMA serves as an important indicator in which a strong bullish break (sustain and without a strong retrace afterward) above it may indicate a change in medium-long term direction. On the other hand, if bullish breakout unsuccessful, the downward trend may resume towards testing support $35.86-$38.53, followed by psychological level $34.00 and $29.22.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Market Update – June 27 – More of an Equities Story Today

USD drop below the 104 mark (USDIndex 103.70), Stocks led the rise in Asian equity indexes, with news that the PBOC made the largest cash injection in three months. Yields (+3.17%) up as markets continue to weigh recession risks and central bank outlooks. Oil corrected at 107.46, Gold  higher and BTC steady.  Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918. The grace period on two eurobond coupons worth around $100 million expired on Sunday, according to Bloomberg, which means the country is officially in default.

• USDIndex down to 103.70 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now. 
• Equities – Hang Seng rallied 2.5%, the CSI300 is up 1.3%, while JPN225 and ASX closed with gains of 1.5% and 1.9% respectively, the latter boosted also by energy companies. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.5% and US futures have pared earlier losses and are posting fractional gains.
• Yields 10-year is up 3.8 bp at 3.17%, the 10-year Bund yield has gained 4.1 bp and is at 1.47% as markets continue to weigh recession risks and central bank outlooks.
• Oil & Gold higher to $107.60 and $1,835.16 respectively. – Brent saw levels below USD 112 amid concern of waning demand amid slowing world growth
• Bitcoin flat at $21,227.
• FX Markets – EURUSD is at 1.0556,  USDJPY fractionally above 135, Cable trades at 1.2290 now, ranging since Friday. 
• Reuters:
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of the US economy tipping into recession over the next year – versus 15% earlier – while Morgan Stanley places US recession odds for the next 12 months at around 35%.
  • Citi forecasts a near-50% probability of global recession.

Today – Focus is on US Durable goods but also on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data on Thursday for further confirmation that price pressures remain heated. Chinese factory activity data due to be released later this week could provide a guide as to whether the world’s second-largest economy is finding momentum again after the disruption caused by strict COVID-19 lockdown measures.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.83%). Rallied from 1.7650 to 1.7765. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram at neutral, RSI 54.63 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00324, Daily ATR 0.01633.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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