UK house prices are definitely cooling off – but are they heading for a fall?

UK house prices hit a fresh high in June, but as interest rates start to rise, the market is cooling John Stepek assesses just how much of an effect higher rates will have on the price of your home.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605045/are-uk-house-prices-cooling-are-they-heading-for-a-fall
via IFTTT

Five dividend stocks to beat inflation

During periods of high inflation, dividend stocks tend to do better than the wider market. Here, Rupert Hargreaves pick five dividend stocks for income investors to buy now.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604955/five-dividend-stocks-to-beat-inflation
via IFTTT

Investment Bank Outlook 30-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnight Risk sentiment remains very subdued so far this week as concerns about the global growth outlook are aggravated by persistent geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. In addition, central bank comments at the ECB central bank forum in Sintra have further highlighted the officials’ commitment to contain the latest inflation overshoot potentially at the expense of an economic downturn later this year and early next year. The Chinese PMIs released earlier today have signalled that the worst of the slowdown in the world’s second largest economy may be behind us and this has helped the AUD regain some ground. That said, we think it will take further positive surprises from global economic data to see a more sustained improvement in risk. In the meantime, the JPY has not been further undermined by the massive slump in Japan IP (-7.2% MoM in May, vs -0.3% consensus), while the high-yielding, safe-haven King USD can continue to reign supreme against the backdrop of pervasive risk aversion. On the day, month-end rebalancing flows could also support the USD across the board.CitiEuropean OpenThe worst quarter in at least 30y for the combined performance of stocks and bonds is ending with a whimper so far. Half year-end session so far has been characterized by very low cross-asset volumes and subdued price action. China stocks was the bright spot, powering higher after a strong PMI print. PBoC injects more funds to keep quarter-end funding smooth. G10 FX trades close to home with volumes ~15% below normal. THB gave up some of the recent rally, KRW struggling after early stock selling pressure, though the move pared as fresh demand emerged in FWDs.Ahead, we look for rate decisions for SEK and COP, where Citi Economics expect rate hikes of 50bps and 100bps respectively. The US will see Initial Jobless & continuing claims data, as well as PCE core deflator figures, CHF looks to retail sales, while EUR will eye France CPI and eurozone unemployment prints. CAD receives GDP data as well as the CFIB Business Barometer. Over in EM, TRY looks to trade balance, HKD to retail sales and BRL to an inflation report.What happened in markets?G10 FX: Overnight, dollar held onto gains prior to the NY close. G10 FX stuck to a tight range against the dollar in Asia, with volumes across the board down around 15% compared to 30d averages. USD was down a touch, with NOK leading at 0.21%.Rates: Our treasuries trader Hideyuki Liu writes that flows today have been muted, though early FM interest in 30y was seen only to be countered by modest long-end selling by RM in the afternoon. Intermediates have led the drift lower, but rather than being a move of conviction, feels more like a retracement after the sharp rally seen during NY yesterday. Both tips of the yield curve have outperformed, with month-end buying expected later today.Oil prices continued to decline in NY and traded flat in Asia. The decline was a result of DoE confirmation of rising distillate and gasoline inventories on weak demand, which tipped the market to the downside.Month End Rebalancing:The final estimate of month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows continues to point to USD buying.Asset markets have performed poorly in June with bond and equity indices in all advanced economies down. Although the US markets are not the worst performers, the dominance of US assets in global portfolio allocation and our assumption that foreigners tend to hedge their FX exposures more leads to a net USD buy-signal.The average USD buy-signal is around 1.8 standard deviations. The signal to sell EURUSD is weaker at 1.2 standard deviations because poor performance of Euro Area bonds may create some offsetting EUR buying flows.The signal to sell JPY vs USD is strongest at around 2 standard deviations, driven by relatively good performance of Japanese assets. This reduces foreign JPY buying needs and allows domestic JPY selling to reduce foreign fixed income hedges to dominate.With the exceptions of GBP, NOK and SEK, we haven’t seen significant real money selling of G10 currencies in recent days, suggesting little or no early rebalancing this month.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-30-06-2022"
via IFTTT

AUDNZD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1.11626Pivot: 1.10526Support: 1.09511Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices breaking above the ichimoku indicator and RSI moving along an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will drop and rise from our pivot at 1.10526 where the horizontal pullback support is to our 1st resistance at 1.11626 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1.09511 where the horizontal swing low support and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audnzd-h4-or-potential-bullish-rise"
via IFTTT

GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1830Pivot: 1806.2Support: 1785.2Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving below the ichimoku indicator and along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that prices will drop to our pivot at 1806.2 where the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Once we have downside confirmation, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 1785.2 in line with swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 100% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could rise to our 1st resistance at 1830 in line with overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation30"
via IFTTT

Market Update – June 30 – End of the Month flows?

USD recovers (USDIndex 104.96), Stocks drop but in Asia markets mostly added to yesterday’s losses, with China bourses outperforming after data signaled signs of improvement and the PBOC reiterated its pledge to provide support for the economy, with a focus on stabilising jobs and inflation. Yields are currently down -2.7 bp and -1.1 bp respectively and bonds in Australia and New Zealand also moved higher. Bonds still remain supported byreaffirmation from core central bankers of their commitment to lowering inflation back to the 2% target. China’s official Composite PMI & German retail sales  bounced back.  UK Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.8% q/q in the final reading, unchanged from the previous release and leaving the annual rate at 8.7% y/y. Oil at 109.12, Gold steady.

• USDIndex up to 104.96, from where the strength is starting to peter out. The buck has rallied against the majors and looks to be capturing a haven bid as well.
• Equities –  USA100 and USA500 are about -0.25% lower, while the GER40 has tumbled -1.80% and the UK100 is -0.15% lower.  Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.6% and -2% respectively.
  
• Yields 10-year slid 8 bps to 3.09%. Bond market closing early on Friday.
• Oil is falling -2.17% to $109.33. 
• Gold steady at $1,817.
• Bitcoin below 20K!
• FX Markets – EURUSD drifted to 1.0432, USDJPY peaked at 137 area, Cable recovers slightly at 1.2160 from 1.2105.
  

  ---

Lagarde repeats ECB is determined to bring inflation down. She remains tight lipped on new crisis tool. Lagarde repeated that there is the need for the ECB to safeguard an even transmission of monetary policy and that the bank will in the first step use the re-investment of previous purchases to address any unwarranted disruptions. 

Powell: there are risks we go too far in tightening policy, but that is not the biggest risk. He said the bigger risk is that there is an insufficient response and inflation expectations become unanchored. And once those expectations become unmoored, “the cost of dealing with higher inflation goes up so much… you just cannot allow it to happen.”

BoE’s Bailey would not specify the Bank’s next move in answering a direct question on whether the hike will be by 50 bps. He said, though, that there will be circumstances where the BoE will have to do more, but he wants to see what happens in coming months. 

---

Today – OPEC+ enters a second and final day of meetings today. Focus is also on the US PCE, Canadian GDP and Inflation from Japan

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (-4.82%). Reverted 3-day losses. MAs aaligning higher, MACD lines turn positive but signal line remains well below 0 & RSI is at 65. H1 ATR 2.24, Daily ATR 7.83.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /489068/
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, June 30, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 30, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed’s Powell: Fed Must Accept Higher Recession Risk To Combat Inflation Fed’s Mester: Fed Is on Track for 0.75-Point July Rate Hike Bitcoin Trades Sub 20k Amid Global Reduced Risk Sentiment China's June Factory, Services Activity Expands First Time In 4 Months EU Seeks Open Talks On N.Ireland, Not Pre-Set UK Outcome UK Business Confidence at 15Mth Low As Cost Of Living Crisis Bites China Lockdowns Spark Sharpest Drop In Japan Output Since 2020 Australia Job Vacancies Surge As Firms Struggle To Find Staff RBNZ Chief Economist Warns Housing No Longer One-Way Bet NZ Business Sentiment Continues To Weaken As Supply Issues Dominate Euro Under Pressure As Inflation Fears Send Investors To Dollar Haven Bonds Move To Price In A Half-Point Cut After Fed Reaches Peak SEC Rejects Grayscale’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Application Oil Set For First Monthly Decline This Year Before OPEC+ Meeting US Could Release Even More Oil From Strategic Stockpiles Iran, US Nuclear-Deal Talks End Without Progress US Agrees To Pay $3.2 Billion For More Pfizer Covid Vaccines Chinese Stocks Set For Largest Monthly Rise Since 2020 Samsung Says It Is Manufacturing 3nm Chips In Global FirstThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mixed this morning. Most are down but Chinese indices are up. Chinese markets may have been supported by an upturn in June PMI data as the manufacturing index climbed above the 50 expansion level for the first time since February, while the non-manufacturing reading was the highest since April 2021. In Germany, retail sales rose by 0.6% in May following a big fall in April. French annual CPI inflation on the EU harmonised measure rose to 6.5% in May up from 5.8% in April. Today’s latest reading for the Lloyds Business Barometer showed a decline of 10 points in June as business confidence slipped to its lowest since the emergence from the second Covid wave. Despite today’s fall, the level of confidence is still equivalent to its long-term average. However, firms are now more cautious both about the economy as a whole and their own trading prospects. Indeed, eleven of the UK’s twelve regions and nations reported lower confidence this month. Firms’ hiring intentions have also moderated and, while pay and pricing expectations remain elevated, there were tentative signs of moderation compared with last month. Today’s Swedish Riksbank monetary policy update is expected to produce a second straight hike in interest rates. Indeed, most economists expect the Riksbank to adopt the same move as several other central banks and opt for a 50 basis points hike rather than repeating April’s move of 25bp. Further rises are also expected at the remaining two meetings of the year and some economists are forecasting 50bp increases at each of those meetings. Despite a fall in US retail sales interest rates in May, overall consumer spending is expected to have risen due to more spending on services. Nevertheless, yesterday’s downward revision to Q1 consumer expenditure growth added to concerns about the outlook that have already been lifted by the sharp decline in consumer confidence measures. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, is expected to mirror the movements in the already released CPI. Expect the headline PCE deflator to rise to 6.5% from 6.3%, while the core PCE deflator is forecast to edge down to 4.8% from 4.9%. As elsewhere, inflation is expected to remain above target for a considerable period ahead. Finally, weekly jobless claims data, which have ticked up in recent weeks, will be watched for signs that employment growth is faltering.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400 (703M), 1.0440 (307M), 1.0500 (692M) 1.0550-55 (1.12BLN) 1.0650 (207M), 1.0750 (938M) USD/JPY: 135.00 (263M), 136.00 (356M), 137.00 (311M) GBP/USD: 1.2300 (348M). USD/ZAR: 15.65-75 (370M) EUR/GBP: 0.8525 (259M), 0.8650 (701M) USD/CHF: 0.9600 (630M), 0.9800 (250M) USD/CAD: 1.2750-55 (1.15BLN), 1.2830 (390M) 1.2850-60 (390M), 1.3000 (601M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR was the weakest major currency yesterday, trading 1.0450’s as LDN session starts USD broadly bid with hawkish comments from Fed Cheif Powell EUR/CHF selling saw prints below parity to a 15-year low EUR/USD closed below support at 1.0470 and now targets June 15 low at 1.035 EUR pressured by diverging central bank expectations and month-end flows EUR/USD's rally attempts are laboured ECB comments and risk aversion weigh A daily close under the 1.0450 would be another bearish development Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids 1.0450 stops below to fuel a test of 1.04 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP offered on fears the BoE may delay further hikes New BoE board member Dhingra prefers 'very gradual' approach on rates Markets sense BoE may fall behind the curve in a similar fashion to the ECB Souring risk sentiment weighs on GBP trading sub 1.2150 Month end USD bids add further downside pressure Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2150 failure here will open 1.2050 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 Bearish below USD/JPY up to 137.00 before retreating with lower US yields 137.00 traded but didn't trade above, any option structures are likely still in play Risk off sentiment driven by growth concerns, inflation and hawkish Fed USD/JPY trades at highest levels since 139.95 in September 1998 Longer-term trend is bullish driven by BoJ-Fed divergence, US yields correlation US yields soften on recession fears, 10 yr Treasury trading 3.06% Japanese importer bids sited towards 135 Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off Friday Option barriers quoted at 137 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD steadies as China PMIs improve Global growth concerns will likely keep the AUD/USD under pressure Bids are tipped toward support at June 14 lows 0.6850 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish above .22000 Bearish below BTC sinks below 20k as EU seeks a deal on Crypto regulation Trend remains down as within broader bearish channel beckons BTC gaining traction below 20k Support at 19,690’s eroded bears targeting a retest of 19k 20 Day VWAP remains bearishly oriented and untested Additional pressure seen from BTC miners liquidating positions on declining profitability 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-30-2022"
via IFTTT

Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Jump Ahead?

The price of Bitcoin got back to the broken neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is next to a very strong psychological supporting level of 20000. Bitcoin is likely to jump anytime soon.Oil is trying to close the trading day with a shooting star that is touching the level of 120. The price of oil is likely to form the candlestick pattern, drop to the level of 100, and gain the required support.Gold might shortly approach the downtrend, face the resistance at the level of 1850, and jump. It might also drop to the supporting level of 1785 and then only jump.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-jump-ahead"
via IFTTT

Three Sharia-compliant growth companies

Professional investor Scott Klimo of the Saturna Al-Kawthar Global Focused Equity ETF tips three Sharia-compliant stocks.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605040/three-sharia-compliant-growth-companies
via IFTTT

GBPCAD, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.57894Pivot: 1.57052Support: 1.54814Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1.57052 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 1.54814 at the horizontal swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the pivot to the 1st resistance at 1.57894 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpcad-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
via IFTTT

CADCHF, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.74889Pivot: 0.74587Support: 0.73563Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.74587 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.73563 at the horizontal swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projectionAlternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may rise above the pivot to the 1st resistance at 0.74889 in line with the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cadchf-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation"
via IFTTT

USDCHF, H4 | Potential Bullish Bounce

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.97272Pivot: 0.95620Support: 0.94155Preferred Case:On the H4, with bullish divergence on the RSI, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 0.95620 where the horizontal swing low support is to our 1st resistance at 0.97272 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 1st support at 0.94155 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdchf-h4-or-potential-bullish-bounce29"
via IFTTT

Investment Bank Outlook 29-06-2022

Credit AgricoleAsia overnight Again, price action was pretty subdued in the G10 FX space overnight, as the USD consolidated its resurgence of the day prior. It was at least until the first regional CPI estimate coming from one of the German Lander this morning. The EUR indeed dipped on the back of a surprising fall in consumer prices this month, although we would caution whether the market consensus had well discounted the measures recently implemented to tackle surging transport costs. Elsewhere, USD/JPY has steadied around 136 despite the modest slippage in UST yields and the equity losses, while the slight miss in the Japanese retail sales was easily shrugged off. In contrast, Australian retail sales kept growing at a frothy 0.9% MoM pace in May (vs 0.4% expected), which nonetheless did not translate into a material lift for the AUD as AUD/USD is holding up just above 0.69.EUR: can we still trust the ECB?The EUR’s good start to the new week has seemingly come to a premature end in the wake of the opening speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra as well as on the back of returning concerns about the Eurozone economic outlook. In particular, Lagarde’s comments suggested that the ECB has made little progress on its anti[1]fragmentation tool since the tool was first announced at its June policy meeting two weeks ago. Indeed, we continue to think that the ECB’s ability to contain any further sell-off in the Eurozone periphery will remain a key determinant of the EUR’s near-term outlook given that the rates markets have already priced in a significant portion of the upcoming ECB monetary tightening. All that being said, we further note that the reaction in the EGB and the Eurozone rate markets to Lagarde’s speech has been rather muted with the EUR-USD rate spread still close to recent highs and the peripheral yield spreads to Bunds still close to recent lows. We therefore think that the latest EUR/USD price action in particular could be further driven by month-end rebalancing flows that according to our model should be dominated by USD-buying.CitiEuropean OpenMarkets were calm following the European close, with dollar holding onto gains. Aussie retail sales came in higher than expected, while Korea saw news from Bloomberg today, citing Yonhap, that the BoK will weigh a ‘Big Step” rate hike if June CPI hits 6%. Nearer to the European open, we received a disinflation signal in the form of German regional (NRW) CPI, although we do note that we would not read too much into it given that the Saxony print is more highly correlated with the headline CPI. Nevertheless, German 10y bund futures jumped, while the UST curve sits 4-5bps lower.Central bank speak from Sintra looms today, featuring ECB, BoE and Fed speakers. For EUR, focus will once again be on fragmentation tool details, especially after yesterday’s report from Reuters. GBP will watch Bailey, as unscripted comments from the governor tend to be more informative on his views. Fed Chair Powell is not expected to alter his rhetoric of late despite the downward revision to University of Michigan inflation expectations. Elsewhere, we will watch the German CPI prints, Eurozone economic confidence data, and SEK’s economic tendency survey. BRL will watch inflation prints for June.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-29-06-2022"
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, June 29, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, June 29, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Markets Retreat On Increasing Recession Fears Bitcoin Testing 20k On Souring Risk Sentiment Fed Officials Promise Rate Hikes, Push Back On Recession Fears US Dep ComSec Clear US Response On China Tariffs Is Coming Soon EU Countries Uphold Phaseout Of New Cars Emissions By 2035 France Cuts Growth Outlook, But Sticks To Budget Target BRC: UK Shop Prices Jump By Most Since 2008 China’s Economy Didn’t Bounce In Q2, Beige Book Survey Finds Japan Retail Sales Rise Faster Than Expected As Covid Curbs Ease BoJ Gov Vows Easy Policy As Japan Less Affected By Global Inflation Australian Consumers Spent Big In May After First Rate Hike Turkey Clears Way For Finland, Sweden To Join NATO Dollar Falters As US Yields Retreat Amid Recession Risks Oil Prices Take a Breather After Their Three-Day Rally EIA: Delayed Weekly Oil Reports To Be Released Wednesday OPEC+ Oil Output Is Half A Billion Barrels Behind On Supply Deal Asian Stocks Lose Bounce From Shorter Quarantine, Slip On Inflation Fears Tesla Lays Off Hundreds Of Autopilot Workers In Latest CutsThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are weaker, following on from the falls on Wall Street, as concerns about higher interest rates and economic growth resurfaced. Geopolitics remain in focus after Turkey dropped opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. US 10-year Treasury yields are lower, as are German bund yields after unexpected falls in German state inflation data (see below). In the UK, the BRC’s shop price index of commonly purchased goods has risen for an eleventh consecutive month, led higher food prices. The first indications of June inflation for the Eurozone will comes from Spanish inflation printing double digits, later German data, followed by French figures tomorrow. Earlier this morning, figures for the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia has attracted attention for being surprisingly weak, falling to 7.5%y/y from 8.1%y/y. If replicated through the morning’s other regional CPI releases and in the pan-German figure at 1pm, it would pose downside risks to the Eurozone ‘flash’ CPI estimate (which is forecast to accelerate) due on Friday. Also in the Eurozone, the eurozone economic sentiment index is expected to fall, reflecting declines in consumer, industrial and services confidence. The final day of the ECB’s forum on ‘Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world’ takes place in Sintra (Portugal). A panel policy at 2pm featuring ECB President Lagarde, US Fed Chair Powell, BoE Governor Bailey and the BIS’s Carstens will be closely watched, as markets assess the scale of interest rate increases ahead needed to bring inflation levels back to target. In the US, the 1.5% annualised contraction in Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed in today’s update. The weakness was led by a wider trade deficit and slower inventory growth, which are expected to reverse. Growth is therefore expected to rebound in Q2, but to moderate in the second half of the year and in 2023. Early Thursday sees the release of China’s PMIs which are forecast to rise above the key 50 level in June to signal expansion for the first time since February as Omicron restrictions are eased. Also, due early tomorrow is the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer for June. It will also provide a forward-looking gauge on businesses’ trading prospects, their assessment of the wider economy and their expectations for hiring, prices and wage growth. The update for UK Q1 GDP will be released at 7am tomorrow and is expected to confirm 0.8%q/q growth. Given cost-of-living challenges for households, there will be attention on the disposable income and savings data to gauge the extent to which households may be reducing their savings to smooth consumption. Citi's Quant prelim month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows suggest USD buying with the signal stronger than the historical average.Despite US equity and bond markets not being the worst performers, the prominence of US assets in global portfolios, allied with the assumption that foreigners tend to hedge FX exposures, suggests net USD buying. USD-buying signal is around 1.7 historical standard deviations with EUR/USD sell signal around 1.3. Has not seen much in the way of real money selling G10 currencies (with the exception of GBP and AUD).FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0550 (426M), 1.0620-25 (662M), 1.0675 (468M) USD/JPY: 135.00 (300M), 137.50 (500M) EUR/CHF: 1.0100 (574M), 1.0275 (230M), 1.0300 (300M) AUD/USD: 0.6950 (388M). USD/CAD: 1.2790-00 (316M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR/USD's rally attempts are laboured ECB comments and risk aversion weigh Testing 1.05 as LDN session starts A daily close under the 1.0450 would be another bearish development Sintra roundtable this afternoon and month end USD buying catalysts today Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids eyed towards 1.05 and 1.0450 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. Souring risk sentiment weighs on GBP trading sub 1.22 early LDN trading Month end USD bids add further downside pressure Scottish Gov seeking another Independence vote BOE Gov Bailey speaking in Sintra this afternoon Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 Support eyed at 1.2150 failure here will open 1.2050 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below USD/JPY bid in the Asian session holding in the upper end of Tue’s range US yields soften on recession fears, 10 yr Treasury trading 3.14% Japanese importer bids sited towards 135 Exporter offers above 136.75 stops above could fuel further upside Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off Friday Option barriers quoted at 136.75 & 137 Global equity sentiment continues to strengthen 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD heavy in risk off Asain trade China’s June PMI’s due Thursday may provide some near term support Bids are tipped toward support at June 14 lows 0.6850 Powell speaks this afternoon and will likely drive dollar action into LDN close 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Bears now targeting a test of the base towards 0.6840’s Offers seen towards .6960, bids eyed back at .6900 and stronger to .6850 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish above .22000 Bearish below BTC weighed ProShares Short BTC ETF sees strong inflows in opening week of trading BITI holds a short exposure equivalent to 939 Bitcoins Trend remains down as within broader bearish channel beckons BTC struggling to gain traction above 21k Yesterdays bearish reversal flips 5 Day VWAP bearish Support sited at 19,690’s 20 Day VWAP remains bearishly oriented and untested Additional pressure seen from BTC miners liquidating positions on declining profitability 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-june-29-2022"
via IFTTT