Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 1.2406Pivot: 1.2154Support: 1.19353Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from our pivot at 1.2154 where the horizontal overlap resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are to our 1st support at 1.19353 where the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could rise above pivot structure and head to 1st resistance at 1.2406 in line with the swing high resistance.
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Monday, July 4, 2022
Bitcoin and Gold: Potential Drop Ahead?
Bitcoin keeps moving along the broken neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. Currently, the asset is testing the supporting level of 19000. Bitcoin is likely to undergo correction soon. Of course, it can also slightly drop and gain the required support at the level of 18000.Gold has pulled from the supporting level of 1785 and closed above the level of 1800. In this case, gold might jump, targeting the downtrend, although it is noteworthy that gold might potentially break the downtrend and head up.Oil is undergoing a correction and heading down. It is likely to drop to the level of 100 next week, and then only jump.
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Market Update – July 4 – USD & Stocks hold gains, Yeilds slip
USD holds around Fridays close (USDIndex 104.85), Stocks closed higher on Friday (S&P500 +1.06%) but Futs have slipped and Yields are down again (-4.51%). after no new news from Powell. Asian shares are mixed after Chinese developer Shimao defaults ans Covid concerns rise again. (Hang Seng -0.30%, Nikkei +0.84%) Oil ticks higher, Gold tests $1815 & BTC tests $19k. European Futs also mixed. Russia claims victory in the “liberated” Luhansk region and accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod. AUD outperforms in Asian session.
Week Ahead – Topped bt NFP on Friday, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and RBA rate decision tomorrow
- USDIndex tested 105.36 Friday before slipping back to 104.85 now.
- Equities – USA500 closed +39 (3825), US500FUTS lower at 3810 now.
- Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 2.889% , trades at 2.880% now.
- Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil has rallied to $108.70 now from $104.55 Friday. Gold spiked to $1815 earlier from a $1785 low on Friday.
- Bitcoin continues to trade under $20K, testing $19K today.
- FX Markets – EURUSD tested under 1.0400 Friday following record CPI FRiday (8.6%) yesterday now back to 1.0425, USDJPY cooled again to 134.75 on Friday back to 135. 40 now. Cable trades at 1.2110 now, from lows at 1.1975 Friday after weak PMI’s.
Overnight – Australian Building Approvals jumped to surprisingly to 9.9% vs -2.0%. German Trade Balance, missed significantly, turning negative at -1.0b vs. 4.2b & Swiss CPI,
Today – EZ PPI, Speeches from ECB’s Elderson, Nagel & de Guindos, and US Independence Day holiday.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.60%). AUD out performed today. Rallied from 91.40 test on Friday to 92.64 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but rising, RSI 58.3 & rising, H1 ATR 0.251, Daily ATR 1.432.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Energy transition is easier said than done
We are on a path to “net zero” carbon emissions, says Edward Chancellor, but fossil fuels will be with us for some time yet.
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Sunday, July 3, 2022
Changpeng Zhao: Binance founder undaunted by the crypto winter
Changpeng Zhao, the founder of controversial cryptocurrency exchange Binance, has been severely battered by carnage in the sector. But the future is bright, he insists.
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Ray Dalio’s shrewd $10bn bet on the collapse of European stocks
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater hedge fund is putting its money on a collapse in European stocks. It’s likely to pay off, says Matthew Lynn.
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Saturday, July 2, 2022
Just how powerful is artificial intelligence becoming?
An uncannily human response from an artificial intelligence program sparked a minor panic last month. But just how powerful are machines getting – and should we be worried?
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Friday, July 1, 2022
Events to Look Out for Next Week
- ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 11:55)
- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – An 310k June nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated. Payroll growth should slow through 2022 alongside reduced growth in the economy. The jobless rate should hold steady for a fourth consecutive month at 3.6%. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.3% after the 0.3% gain in May, while the workweek holds steady from 34.6 in March. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3%, after a 0.3% May gain, while the y/y wage gain should dip to 5.0% from 5.2%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage gains.
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s unemployment is anticipated higher in June to 5.2% from 5.1%.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Investment Bank Outlook 01-07-2022
Credit AgricoleCHF: no denying parity no more EUR/CHF dipped below parity yesterday for the first time since 7 March, as prior to that such levels had not been seen since January 2015 and the aftermath of the floor removal. Three months ago, the pair was quick to reverse higher as the SNB possibly lent a hand with increased FX interventions, something that could be confirmed by today’s publication of FX interventions data from the SNB for Q122. However, the reality of March is no longer the same today after the SNB undertook a massive U-turn in its assessment of the CHF in June, no longer estimating the CHF as being “highly valued” while also warning of potential two-way FX interventions. As a result, with lower resistance to potential CHF strength, parity or close to could become the new normal for EUR/CHF going forward,CAD: don’t settle for second best The CAD has been the G10 currency to cope best with this year’s USD strengthening, as the CAD has been able to benefit from (1) a hawkish central bank relative to peers; (2) positive terms-of-trade shock from higher energy prices; and (3) its closer ties to the US macro cycle. With regards to the latter, it has to be noted that the Canadian economy has possibly fared better than the US this year, avoiding the pitfall of a growth contraction in Q122 followed by solid momentum in Q222. The latest Canadian GDP figures due out today could nicely complement he frothy jobs and retail sales data of late, although we doubt that they could provide the CAD with a meaningful boost on the day when month-end and quarter[1]end flows are possibly more influential. Furthermore, the market could also keep an eye on the monthly meeting of the OPEC+, although any further lifting of the production curbs would still be overshadowed by the real struggles to actually ramp up supply on the ground.GBP: independent of political noise A day after UK MPs gave their initial approval for a bill to potentially override part of the Brexit deal, Scotland’s First Minister set plans for the country to eventually hold a consultative referendum on the country’s independence, even pencilling in 19 October 2023 as the day for the vote. In practice, she has asked the UK Supreme Court to rule on whether such a vote would be lawful, and especially in the absence of approval from the UK government, which is unlikely to diverge from its stiff opposition. While the timeline for the Court to give its verdict remains unclear, we for now doubt that the latest manoeuvres from the SNP could significantly revive the fears of a UK break-up. The GBP has seemingly largely concurred by avoiding a dramatic underperformance vs the EUR yesterday, while ultimately threats of the UK altering the Northern Ireland protocol and the subsequent possible retaliation from the EU loom as a bigger near-term risk for the GBP, which at the minute can only really rely on the fact that it is undervalued and oversold for some respite. On the day, attention will be on the parliamentary hearing of upcoming MPC member Swati Dhingra for any eventual hints to where she ranks on the hawk/dove scale, as she is due to replace prominent hawk Michael Saunders from August onwards.
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Market Spotlight: GBPAUD Breakout On Watch
GBPAUD Looking to Breakout Price action in GBPAUD is looking interesting here. The pair has been in range formation for months now, caught between support at 1.7218 and resistance at 1.7811. However, each test of the support level has been accompanied by growing bullish divergence in momentum studies. The pair is now once again testing upper support and, with AUD sinking currently, an upside break looks promising. Bulls can look for a topside break of the 1.7811 level targeting 1.8143 initially. Retail positioning, while still net-long, is reducing rapidly with short positions growing, further endorsing the prospect of an upside break.Keep an Eye OnThe current risk-off theme to markets is hitting AUD hard. While this narrative continues, we can expect GBPAUD to gain further upside momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the July RBA meeting will be the key focus. With a .5% hike baked in, there are risks of further AUD downside if the RBA doesn’t raise its level of hawkishness either in terms of a larger hike or a more hawkish outlook. On the other hand, if the RBA comes through with either of those, this will likely sap bullish momentum from the pair in the near-term.
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Market Update – July 1 – Sharpest 1st-half decline in 50 years
USD declined (USDIndex 104.38 ), Equities finished much the way it began the year. Equities extended lower, led by tech, though declines were broadbased amid growth worries. – For the year-to-date, the USA100 plunged -29.5%, the USA500 dropped -20.6%, and the GER40 tumbled -15.3%. Bonds captured a strong bid as June/Q2 came to a close and mercifully ending a the worst Q2 for the USA500 in decades. Yields ended up plunging double digits yesterday amid myriad factors, though haven demand and growing concerns over a recession mainly underpinned. Japan Tankan index signaled deteriorating confidence as the fallout from lockdowns in China weighed on sentiment in the second quarter of the year. Oil at 104.54, Gold below 1,800.
- USDIndex climbed to 105.54 but sagged to closed at 104.38.
- Equities – USA100 closed with a -1.33% loss, while the USA500 and USA30 were down -0.88% and -0.82% lower, respectively. European are also in the red, as recession fears take hold. JPN225 and ASX lost -1.7% and -0.4%.
- Yields 10-year fell over 12 bps to 2.968% and the 2-year was down 12 bps as well to 2.918%.
- Oil has fallen to $104.54.
- Gold down to $1,795.
- Bitcoin bottomed to 18,531 before turning back above 19K!
- FX Markets –Yen caught a haven bid and outperformed overnight, with USDJPY correcting to 134.67, although the USD gained against most other currencies. AUD and NZD were under pressure, EURUSD little changed at 1.0484 and Cable at 1.2121.
Today – Today’s data included Eurozone’s HICP and US ISM Manufacturing.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (-0.89%) rally to 1.7786 (up by 177 pips) However, now MAs aligning flattened, MACD lines remains positive while RSI is at 89. H1 ATR 0.0031, Daily ATR 0.0158.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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NZDCAD, H4 | Potential Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 0.81052Pivot: 0.80228Support: 0.79408Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 0.80228 where the pullback support is to the 1st support at 0.79408 in line with 127.2% fibonacci extension and 100% fibonacci projection.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could rise above pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 0.81052 where the pullback resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.
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Daily Market Outlook, July 1, 2022
Daily Market Outlook, July 1, 2022 Overnight Headlines US Stocks Suffer Sharpest First-Half Drop In More Than 50 Years Q2 Earnings Concerns Weigh On Risk Sentiment Bitcoin Pares Jump Amid Dip Buying In Hope Of Better Second Half Oil Heads For Worst Run Of Losses This Year On Recession Concern McConnell Threatens China Bill Over Biden Tax, Climate Plan ECB's Holzmann Says He Would Have Preferred Earlier Hikes UK’s No 10 Float’s Plans VAT Cut To Ease Pain Of Rising Prices China's June Factory Activity Expands At Fastest Pace In 13 Months China Announce $45Bln In Stimulus To Pay For Infrastructure Tokyo June Core Consumer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 7 Years Japan Manufacturers Turn Less Optimistic, Helping BoJ’s Case Japan's Factory Activity Growth Slows In June, Hurt By China Curbs Dollar Heads For Weekly Gain As Investors Weigh Rates, Recession Risks EU Says May Not Be Possible To Cross Finish Line On Iran Nuclear Deal Stocks Make Tentative Start To Second Half Under Growth Clouds Micron's Weak Outlook Sparks Concerns Of Chip Down CycleThe Day Ahead Risk-off sentiment continued to prevail as global recession concerns weigh on equities, government bond yields and oil prices. The S&P 500 index In the US fell by more than 20% in the first half of the year, the most since 1970. Stock markets are lower overnight across most markets in Asia. In Japan, the closely watched Tankan report revealed weaker-than-expected confidence in Q2 among large manufacturers. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, however, returned to growth territory at 51.7 in June, up from 48.1 in May. This morning’s Eurozone and UK June manufacturing PMIs are final estimates, although we will get the first readings for Italy and Spain. The final PMIs are expected to confirm earlier flash estimates. The Eurozone survey was particularly weak with the composite index dropping to 51.9 in June, the weakest since early 2021, reflecting contraction in manufacturing and fading pent-up demand for services. In the UK, the composite PMI held steady at 53.1, but is significantly lower than in the first four months of the year, and the future output index points to further losses of momentum in the coming twelve months. Inflationary pressures remained elevated, but the price indices hinted at near-term peaks. Eurozone flash CPI inflation estimate for June is also out this morning. Look for an increase in annual headline CPI to a new high of 8.5%, up from 8.1% in May, driven by further rises in food and energy as well as an uptick in core inflation to 3.9% from 3.8%. National data this week showed a surprising fall in German EU-harmonised inflation to 8.2% offset by a surge in Spain to 10.0%, while France was in line with forecasts at 6.5%. Such a print for the Eurozone would likely be seen as reaffirming the ECB’s signal that it will raise interest rates by 25bp in July and boost market expectations of a larger 50bp increase in September. UK money and credit figures from the Bank of England are expected to show mortgage approvals falling to 64k in May, down from 86k a year earlier. Data for consumer credit will also be watched, particularly credit card borrowing which has risen by more than 10% compared with a year ago. Ahead of Monday’s holiday, the US focus will be on construction spending and the ISM manufacturing survey. Expect construction spending for May to rise by 0.4% and the ISM manufacturing index to fall to 55.5 in June from 56.1 in May. The declines in the S&P Global (IHS Markit) manufacturing PMI to 52.4 and in the regional Philadelphia Fed survey may point to downside risks for the ISM report.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0400-05 (937M), 1.0425 (287M), 1.0450 (521M) 1.0475-80 (914M), 1.0500-05 (454M), 1.0520-25 (363M) 1.0540-55 (2.0BLN), 1.0565-75 (2.6BLN) 1.0590-00 (2.53BLN), 1.0615 (611M), 1.0630 (994M) USD/JPY: 133.50 (1.47BLN), 134.00 (1.58M), 135.25 (295M) 135.50 (571M) GBP/USD: 1.2000 (408M), 1.2100 (259M), 1.2150 (222M) 1.2200 (248M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (329M), 0.8635-40 (276M) USD/CHF: 0.9450 (750M). 0.9650-60 (450M) AUD/USD: 0.6800 (754M), 0.6900-10 (816M), 0.6950 (337M) 0.7000 (400M), 0.7050 (1.96BLN). NZD/USD: 0.6400 (1.153BLN) AUD/NZD 1.1100 (348M). USD/ZAR: 16.0175 (590M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.07 Bullish above EUR recovery attempt supported by a pullback in US yields and quarter-end flows Overnight Eminis retreat 1% in risk off Asian trade, EURJPY flows weigh The hurdle for nascent bulls sits at 1.0530/60 Technical descending triangle forming break should give directional drive Failure below the base opens a test of 1.0270’s next Initial offers are seen at 1.0615/20 ahead 1.0650 Bids 1.0450 stops below to fuel a test of 1.04 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.26 Bullish above. GBP offered in Asian trade GBPJPY flow weighs on Cable BoE dovish tilt and Brexit concerns also seen as adding pressure Markets sense BoE may fall behind the curve in a similar fashion to the ECB Bears targeting a break of YTD lows en-route to a test of 1.18 Resistance remains sited at 1.2410 1.2150 failure will open a test of bids at 1.2050 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 132 Bearish below USD/JPY continues to retreat with lower US yields US yields soften on recession fears, 10 yr Treasury trading 2.96% US 10yr sub 3% sees JPY inflows with a reversal in global risk sentiment Japanese importer bids sited towards 135 eroded, carry buyers seen in wait towards 1.34 Notable options expiries at 133.50 and 134.00 strikes go off today Option barriers KO’s quoted at 137 remain intact 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7200 Bearish below AUD mints new 2022 lows Bears target a test of the equality objective at .6640’s Commodities roll over in Asia Iron Ore very soft towards a 5% loss, Copper also weak Bids are tipped toward .6750 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside Offers seen towards .69 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish above .22000 Bearish below BTC sinks below 20k again after late pop higher yesterday gaining 4.9% Failure to gain traction above 21K leaves dip buyers second-guessing fresh bids Trend remains down as within broader bearish channel beckons Support seen at 19k then 18300 the base of the daily VWAP bands failure here opens a retest of lows 20 Day VWAP remains bearishly oriented and untested Additional pressure seen from BTC miners liquidating positions on declining profitability 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 140.67Pivot: 136.781Support: 134.354Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our pivot at 136.781 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Once there is upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to our 1st resistance at 140.67 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection is .Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may drop to 1st support at 134.354 in line with the swing low support, 100% fibonacci projection and 23.6% fibonacci retracement.
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