USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 140.099Pivot: 136.722Support: 134.319Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving along an ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 136.722 where the overlap support, 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are to our 1st resistance at 140.099 in line with the -61.8% fibonacci expansion.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot and drop to 1st support at 134.319 in line with the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

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Daily Market Outlook, July 12, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 12, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Markets Trade At Two Year Lows On Growth Fears Euro On The Edge Of Parity With The Dollar Driven By Energy Prices Japan Shouldn’t Intervene Over Yen Now, Former FX Chief Warns Japan's June Wholesale Prices Rise For 16th Consecutive Month Australian Business Mood Sours In June Even As Activity Holds Up Australia’s Biggest Pension Fund Braces For A Prolonged Slowdown Fed’s George Warns Raising Rates Too Fast Risks ‘Oversteering’ Bostic Confident US Economy Can Handle Another Jumbo Rate Hike ECB Should Model New Bond Scheme On Old One, Nagel Says Sunak To Stand Firm On Taxes Until He Has ‘Gripped Inflation’ BoE Gov Bailey: UK Inflation Still Likely To Fall Sharply Next Year UK Retail Sales Fall As Inflation Hits Consumers - Industry Bodies US Dollar-Japanese Yen Slips On Fresh Round Of Verbal Intervention Global Bonds Rebound As Growth Fears Overwhelm Inflation Nerves Oil Extends Drop As Concerns Over Economic Slowdown Grip Market US Believes OPEC Has More Capacity To Raise Crude Production IEA Exec Dir Fatih Birol: World Has Not Seen Worst Of Energy Crisis JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Hedges Risk-On Wager, Cuts Corporate DebtThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are down this morning as fears of a sharp slowdown in growth come to the fore again. Crude oil prices are also down, although still above last week’s lows, reflecting reports that the US government thinks that OPEC has room to expand production. Reports suggest that Chancellor of the Exchequer Zahawi will outline new measures next week making it easier for companies to raise funds in the UK. The rules for the Conservative leader election have been set out. Nominations close today with each candidate requiring at least 20 supporting Conservative MPs. These will be whittled down to two, with party members then choosing the winner to be unveiled on 5th September. Today’s German ZEW survey will provide one of the first indications of economic trends in the Eurozone during July. Of particular interest will be anything it reveals about the impact on confidence from the European Central Bank’s likely interest rate rises in the second half of 2022. The survey may also show some impact from the latest rises in gas prices, although some of last week’s increases may have been too recent to be recorded. Expect today’s report to see a fall in both current conditions and future expectations. This week’s key economic releases for the US are the June CPI (Wed) and retail sales (Fri). Both could have a significant impact on Federal Reserve’s decision about how much to raise interest rates. In contrast, today’s June NFIB small business survey will be seen as less significant but it may supply some useful insights. Already released components showed ongoing problems in filling job vacancies, while wage pressures remain intense. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to be the latest central bank to raise interest rates. Its update due very early tomorrow is forecast to confirm a third consecutive rate hike of 50 basis points taking rates to 2.50%, 225bp above last year’s lows. Ahead of that, today’s speech from Bank of England Governor Bailey will be watched for clues on the BoE’s next rate move. However, recent experience suggests that he is unlikely to pre-commit. May UK GDP data due early Wednesday is forecast to show the first rise in output in three months. However, that is likely to be due primarily to a statistical distortion rather than to an underlying rebound in activity. The Office for National Statistics does not normally seasonally adjust for one-off events such as the Jubilee. Therefore, the move of the usual late May holiday into June is likely to have boosted output growth and we think that could lead to a rise in May GDP of 0.5%. However, that will be more than offset in June by a negative effect due to the two extra holidays.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0175-85 (521M), 1.0195-05 (466M) 1.0260-70 (1.19BLN) USD/JPY: 135.00 (565M), 135.55-65 (1.19BLN) 137.60-65 (1.34BLN), 138.00 (355M) EUR/JPY: 137.50 (640M). USD/CHF: 0.9725 (230M) 0.9900 (201M) GBP/USD: 1.1830-35 (355M) USD/CAD: 1.3000-05 (423M), 1.3020 (202M), 1.3120 (240M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.05 Remains offered just above parity Energy price and supply concerns seen as principle driver Upside capped by US Yields on increasing Fed rate hike bets ECB/FED policy divergence remains in focus, CPI Wed’s next catalyst Bids eyed below parity .9950 offers sitting above 1.0050 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2150 GBP under continued pressure in a weak Asian trade Energy price inflation, recession fears and political unknowns weigh on GBP Wednesday sees 1.15Bln options at 1.2035 Bears breach YTD lows en-route to a test of 1.18 Offers seen at 1.20 Bids 1.1720 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 USDJPY trades at a 22 year high in the Asian session but off best levels Market watching for the outcome of US, Japanese trade discussion JPY FinMIn jawboning having limited impact Tuesday sees 1.1Bln 137.60 option expiries Japanese importer bids seen just below 137 Traders see range expansion 135/140 US10Y trade back below 3% Offers seen at 138.60 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 AUD continuing to be weighed by souring risk sentiment AUD consumer sentiment weakens on rising inflation concerns Fresh Covid concerns out of China, Shanghai finds new subvariant Commodities rolling over again iron ore trades down 3.5% overnight Offers seen at .6850’s with bids .6685 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 22k BTC continues to trade lower setting up a pivotal test of 19k 20 VWAP band contracting ready for next directional drive, currently pointing south Trend remains down within broader bearish channel Support seen at 19k then 18300 the base of the daily VWAP bands failure here opens a retest of lows Concerns regarding increasing Crypto scandals and scams leave BTC vulnerable Additional pressure seen from BTC miners liquidating positions on declining profitability 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearish

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Market Update – July 12 -USD spiked, Oil fell & Euro closer to parity

USD spiked, Oil fell and the Euro inched closer to parity. The strong haven bid rise as the prospect of further tightening by central banks, renewed COVID outbreaks in China and Europe’s energy shortages spooked investors. The Fed’s George, the dissenter in favor of a 50 bp June hike, noted concerns over aggressive policy action & the hawk Bullard still favors a 75 bp move. Recession angst again cropped up and hammered equities with weakness in megacap tech knocking the USA100 down -2.26%. USDIndex above 108.00. Wall Street’s losses have deepened. China imposing strict covid restrictions amid a rise in the subvariant BA.5 Omicron. Earnings season starts on Thursday with JPMorgan kicking it off. It could be a tough season for profits given rising costs. Bloomberg cites IBES data from Refinitive showing Q2 y/y earnings growth of 5.7% which would be the slowest since Q4 2020.

Twitter Inc TWTR.N sent a letter to Elon Musk saying his effort to abandon his $44 billion takeover is “invalid and wrongful” and that Twitter has not breached any of its obligations, according to a regulatory filing.

• USDIndex broken through the 108.00 level, currently at 108.32 –  highest since October 2002.
• Yields: 10-year sector was the outperformer yesterday, back below the 3.00% level again to 2.97%.
• Stocks: USA100 tumbled -2.2%. The USA500 is off -1.15%, and the USA30 has slid -0.52%.
• USOIL down $102.00
• Gold steady for a 3^rd day at $1,730.
• FX Markets: EURUSD dip to 1.0004, USDJPY spiked to 137.47. The AUDUSD slumped and was one of the worst performers versus USD amid growing recession angst that has overshowed the two consecutive 50 bp hikes from the RBA.
• Today – Pepsico earning, German ZEW, & BoE’s Governor Bailey speech

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT)

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Earnings Report Outlook: Cintas & Charles Schwab

Cintas Corporation, an American corporation which offers businesses in a range of products and services including uniforms, restroom supplies, mats, mops, fire extinguishers and testing, as well as first aid and safety products, is scheduled to report its earnings results for the quarter ended May 2022 on 14^th July (Thursday) before market open.

Fig 1：Reported Sales and EPS versus Analyst Forecast for Cintas

Source：money.cnn

In general, Cintas Corporation performed on par with market expectation for the past few years. In the previous quarter, the company reported $2 billion sales while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.69. Most of the company’s revenues for the quarter derived from the Uniform Rental and Facility Services segment, which was up 9.6% y/y to $1.55 billion, followed by First Aid and Safety Services segment (up 7.3% y/y to $213 million) and All Other segment (up 20.9% y/y to $194.3 million). Source TipRanks）

For the upcoming earnings announcement, sales are expected to remain at $2 billion, slightly up 11.11% from the same period last year. On the other hand, EPS is expected to achieve $2.68, up 8.5% compared to Q4 2020. Overall, for full year 2021, sales and EPS are expected to hit $7.8B and $11.36, respectively, up 9.86% and 10.94% from the previous year.

Technical Overview: 

The Daily chart shows #Cintas traded within a descending channel, a technical correction from bullish phase since Feb 2020 (low: $153.24) to Dec 2021 (high: $461.14). In general, the company’s share price remains 22.66% below the median estimate of analysts. $384.20 and the 100-day SMA serve as the nearest resistance. Breaking above these levels may indicate the bulls to extend its gains towards the next resistance at $398.90, the upper line of descending channel and $413.60. Otherwise, if share price retraces, the nearest support to watch is $366, followed by $350 and $336.60.

 

---

Charles Schwab Corporation, an American multinational financial services company that offers brokerage, banking and financial advisory services through its operating subsidiaries, is also expected to release its Q2 2022 earnings result also 14^th July (Thursday), before market open.

Fig 2：Reported Sales and EPS versus Analyst Forecast for Charles Schwab.

Source  money.cnn

In the previous quarter, Charles Schwab reported $4.7B sales and adjusted EPS at $0.77. Both figures missed consensus estimates. Net income was $1.4B, down -12.5% (q/q) and -6.67% (y/y). Despite encountering a complex set of crosscurrents, CEO Walt Bettinger remains optimistic on Charles Schwab’s prospects following its “contemporary full-service model and no “trade-offs” approach to value, service, transparency and trust”, which in turn is boosting client engagement and account openings. It is known as one of the “big four brokerages”, with over $4 trillion in client assets and over 12 million active brokerage accounts. Consensus estimates for sales in the coming announcement remains unchanged at $2.0B, whereas EPS is expected to hit $2.68.

Technical Overview: 

Technically, #CharlesSchwab shares price remains supported above the highs seen in January last year, $62.03 and $62.10 (FR 50.0% extended from the lows in March 2020 to the highs in February 2022). $68.05 – $70.15 serves as minor resistance zone. If the bulls successfully break above the zone, #CharlesSchwab shares price may see more upward potential towards the next resistance at $73.45 (near to 100-day SMA), and the range between $77.80 to $82.15. On the contrary, if price breaks below the said support, the next level to watch will be $59.30 and $54.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst  

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Precious Metals Monday 11-07-2022

Metals Heading Lower as USD RalliesThe metals complex is looking vulnerable to a further drop lower this week as both gold and silver start the week under offer. Resurgent strength in USD on the back Friday’s bumper jobs report reflects the re-sharpened focus on hawkish Fed expectations. With traders now widely anticipating a further .75% hike this month, along with further hawkish signals, USD looks likely to continue higher near-term, which should keep gold and silver prices pressured. Indeed, with USD drawing the majority of safe-haven inflows, metals aren’t even being supported by the cross-flows from weaker risk sentiment this week.Looking out across the week, the headline focus for metals traders will be US CPI due mid-week. In light of the built-up hawkish Fed expectations in the market, a further strong CPI reading should see USD remain in favour across the week, keeping metals anchored lower. However, if there is any surprise drop in consumer prices over June, this would no doubt raise some doubts over the prospect of a continued, aggressive hiking schedule beyond July, likely weighing on USD and allowing metals room to recover. With this in mind, metals traders will be closely watching US CPI data this week, which has the potential to fuel plenty of volatility, not least for metals. Following the CPI print, we also have US retail sales on Friday. This data will give a fresh glimpse at the latest performance of the US economy and, given its importance in calculating GDP, holds the potential to create further volatility for USD and metals alike.Technical ViewsGoldThe recent breakdown in gold prices saw price breaking under the 1791.63 support level. With the large, bearish channel still developing, gold prices look prone to further downside towards the 1722.37 handle next and, should we break below there, the 1679.77 level thereafter. With both MACD and RSI giving bearish signals, the near-term outlook remains bearish. Only a break back above the 1791.63 level will alleviate near-term downside risks for gold.SilverSilver prices have been trending steadily lower this year in a well-defined bear-channel. Price recently broke down through the 20.6398 level and has since moved under 19.5643 also. With both MACD and RSI bearish, the focus is on a continuation lower towards the 18.4421 level next. To the topside, only a break of the channel top and the 20.6398 level will alleviate near-term bearishness.

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Market Update – July 11 – Stocks pressured, USD gains

The NFP report was slightly disappointing overall (372k June payroll gain  & -74k in downward revisions). USD & Yields spiked, with USDIndex 107.59. Fed funds futures are dropping as the jobs report gives no reason for the FOMC to slow its policy trajectory, keeping a 75 bp hike at the July 26-27 FOMC intact and 50 bp move at the September 20-21 meeting. Stocks remain under pressure. Asian stocks struggled further overnight, with China bourses once again hit by lockdown concerns. Chinese CPI hotter at 2.5% vs 2.1%, but PPI cooler 6.15 vs 6.4%. COT report shows long positions on USD were reduced.

China discovered its first case of a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant in Shanghai and that new cases jumped to 63 in the country’s largest city from 52 a day earlier.

• USDIndex is heading for a new 20 year high – eased a bit at 107.23.
• Yields: The 2-year rate is up over 3.119%, 3-year at 3.165% & 10-year higher at 3.095%.
• Stocks : USA30 was down -0.15%, while the USA500 was off -0.08%. The USA100 rose 0.12%.  In Europe, the picture is not much better and GER40 and UK100 futures are down -1.4% and -1.0%. Twitter fell 5% (with more to come) after MUSK withdrew the $44bln offer. The market mood will be tested by earnings from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on Thursday, with Citigroup and Wells Fargo the day after.
• Oil prices fell slightly today reversing some gains amid lockdown fear in China, i.e. concerns about tight supply. USOIL at $102.96 – New mass COVID testing in China potentially hitting demand.
• Gold steady for a 3^rd day at $1,732-$1,750.
• FX Markets: USDJPY at 137.26 – 24-month high. Japan’s ruling conservative coalition’s strong election showing indicated no change to lose monetary policies.

Today – Fed’s Williams speech.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (–0.62%) down to 1.0105. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative & declining, RSI 31, H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.01032.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Jump Ahead

After the slight rise, Bitcoin is undergoing a correction, forming a pattern resembling a flag. The price of Bitcoin is testing the local support at the level of 20750 away from which it might jump again.Brent oil has pulled from the psychological level of 100 and is heading up. Once the oil has reached the level of 120 and the downtrend, it might drop.The EUR/USD pair broke the supporting level of 1.0350, therefore this level might offer some resistance. Hence, getting back to this level, the asset’s price might pull and drop again.

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Investment Bank Outlook 11-07-2022

INGInflation well above target, consumer sentiment at all-time lowThe market is favouring a 75bp rate hike from the Federal Reserve on 27 July and we agree given the tight jobs market and inflation running at more than four times the 2% targeted rate. In fact, inflation is likely to move even further above target this coming week as gasoline, food, shelter and airline fares continue to rise apace. Core inflation may slow marginally to 5.8% from 6%, but this too is well above target.We will also be looking out for the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. It recently fell to an all-time low as the rising cost of living and plunging stock markets weighed on sentiment. This obviously is not encouraging for consumer spending growth, and we will also be closely following the inflation expectations series. It spiked last month (subsequently revised lower) and this was seen by many as the trigger for the Fed to signal it was going to hike by 75bp in June rather than the 50bp it had laid the groundwork for. Another strong reading for inflation expectations should all but confirm a second consecutive 75bp move later this month.Weakening demand and negative trade balanceEurozone industry continues to struggle with supply chain problems, while signs of weakening demand have also become more apparent. Both are bad news for a recovery in production although we do see some improvements in supply chains that may help production to catch up in the months ahead. Backlogs of work are still sizable, so don’t expect a sudden drop in May production figures due to weaker demand just yet. Nevertheless, the outlook for industry remains soft at the moment. Also, look out for the trade balance, which is set to be negative again on the back of high energy prices and a difficult export environment.Canada's housing market provides strong resilience against spikes in priceWe expect the Bank of Canada to implement a 75bp move at its July 13 meeting. The economy is growing strongly, is at record employment levels and its inflation rate is running at 7.7%, the fastest rate since January 1983. The housing market is also red hot while Canada’s strong commodity-producing sectors mean it is far more resilient than most major economies to the spike in prices.Canada looks set to hit the brakes hardThe Bank of Canada (BoC) has indicated that it sees the “neutral” range for the policy interest rate as 2-3%. Given we are currently at 1.5% and central bankers have expressed a desire to see interest rates move to the top or even beyond that range, we expect the Bank of Canada to follow the Federal Reserve’s lead and implement a 75bp hike at its 13 July meeting.After all, the economy is growing strongly, has record employment levels, and its inflation is running at 7.7%, the fastest rate since January 1983. The housing market is also red hot while Canada’s strong commodity-producing sectors mean it is far more resilient than most major economies to the spike in prices.

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Daily Market Outlook, July 11, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 11, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asia Shares Open Under Pressure On U.S. Inflation, Earnings Season Treasuries Sit Out Haven Trades As Large CPI Event Risk Looms Rampant Dollar Hits New 24 Year Peak Through 137 On The Yen Japan Ruling Bloc Easily Wins Vote Held Days After Abe’s Murder Japan Orders Fall But Data Good, BoJ Easy, Money Supply Up Kuroda Warns Of High Economic Uncertainty, Repeats Easy Policy Bias RBNZ Shadow Board Recommends Half-Point Hike This Week - NZIER China's June Factory Inflation Cools Counter To Global Trends ECB’s Holzmann Foresees Steep Rate Hikes to Stem Fast Inflation ECB’s Stournaras: Strong’ ECB Crisis Tool Could Stay On Shelf Biden Decision On China Tariffs May Come Shortly, Raimondo Says Tories Look To Narrow Leadership Field Quickly As Rancour Grows Oil Mixed As Market Weighs Tight Supply Against Recession Jitters Europe On Edge As NS Russian Gas Link Set For Planned Shut-Down China Watchdog Fined Alibaba, Tencent Over Reporting Past Deals Twitter Assembles Legal Team To Sue Musk Over Dropped TakeoverThe Day Ahead Most Asian equity markets traded lower on the day as concerns over the Covid situation in China weighed on sentiment. Shanghai reported its first case of the BA.5 Omicron variant yesterday, prompting warnings of further lockdowns to contain its spread. 9 districts and areas of Shanghai where infections were found are due to undergo 2 rounds of mass testing between Tuesday and Thursday. Stocks across Japan were the exception, trading higher on the day following the ruling LDP/Komeito coalition expanding its majority in the yesterday’s Upper House election, opening the way for the current administration to face a “golden three years”, in which it would not need to face a national election. Over the past week, financial markets have remained volatile as the focus seesawed between inflation and growth concerns. This week, updates on China and UK GDP will provide key insights on global growth, with Wednesday’s US CPI report for June keenly watched for news on the latest inflation trends. More immediately, today’s calendar is void of any major data releases, leaving the focus on a handful of central bank speakers, although the extent to which monetary policy outlooks will be discussed remains uncertain. In the US, Fed member Williams is due to speak at event on the Libor transition, while the ECB’s Nagel will talk about the ‘digital euro’. Domestically, Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey is scheduled to appear in front of a parliamentary committee, alongside a number of Financial Policy Committee colleagues, to discuss the latest Financial Stability Report. The UK Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee of backbench MPs is expected to elect a new executive later today. The Committee is then expected to confirm the process for selecting a new permanent leader of the Party who will be invited to form a government by the Queen. The current process is that Conservative MPs will whittle down the candidates to two and the winner will be chosen by the wider party membership. Reports suggest the aim is to have a new leader in place by early September. As of this morning, 11 Conservative MPs have announced their intention to stand in the contest.CFTC Data IMM: USD long position grows as EUR, GBP, AUD specs sell into weakness USD net spec long grew in Jun 29-Jul 5 period; $IDX +1.9% EUR$ -2.44% in period specs -6,256 contracts now -16,852; spec eye parity $JPY -0.15% in period, specs sell 1,875 now short 54,445 contracts GBP$ -1.85%, specs sold 3,090 contracts now -56,208 prior to PM resignation CAD specs -4,804, AUD -4,641 contracts; recession fears weigh on commods BTC specs -665 contract long reduced to 420; crypto co.'s liquidity issues stir unwind(Source: Reuters)FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0050 (658M), 1.0125 (208M), 1.0200 (243M) 1.0225 (589M), 1.0250 (1.34BLN), 1.0300 (1.32BLN) 1.0350 (545M) USD/JPY: 136.50 (855M), 137.00 (200M) GBP/USD: 1.2035 (351M) USD/CHF: 0.9745 (205M). USD/CAD: 1.2985 (200M) EUR/CHF: 1.0150 (439M). AUD/USD: 0.6825 (418)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.05 Opens the week under pressure trading sub 1.0150 Upside capped by US Yields on increasing Fed rate hike bets ECB/FED policy divergence remains in focus, CPI Wed’s next catalyst Soaring energy costs, inflation and recession concerns pile on the pressure Bids eyed at 1.0070 offers sitting above 1.02 Bears eyeing a parity test; offers seen at 1.0340/60 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2150 GBP soft in light Asian session Political power void likely to constrain BoE action in August Wednesday sees 1.15Bln options at 1.2035 Energy price inflation, recession fears and political unknowns weigh on GBP Bears breach YTD lows en-route to a test of 1.18 Offers seen at 1.20 Bids 1.1770 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 USDJPY trades at a 22 year high in the Asian session US Yields seen as supporting the upside Surge came as BoJ Kuroda reaffirmed the banks policies Tuesday sees 1.1Bln 137.60 option expiries Japanese importer bids seen at 135 Traders see range expansion 135/140 US10Y trad above 3% although retreating from best levels overnight Initial offers seen at 137.55/65 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 AUD weighed by souring risk sentiment Fresh Covid concerns out of China, Shanghai finds new subvariant Commodities rolling over again Nickel falling as much as 3% Offers seen at .6870’s with bids .6770’s Next major support seen at the 50% retracement of the 0.5510/0.8007 move at 0.6758 20 Day VWAP remains untested confirming downside 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 22k BTC briefly tests 22k but quickly rejected 20 VWAP band contracting ready for next directional drive Trend remains down as within broader bearish channel Support seen at 19k then 18300 the base of the daily VWAP bands failure here opens a retest of lows Concerns regarding increasing Crypto scandals and scams leaves BTC vulnerable Additional pressure seen from BTC miners liquidating positions on declining profitability 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullish

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Three good value American small-cap stocks to buy now

Professional investor Richard de Lisle of the VT De Lisle America Fund picks three American value stocks to buy now.

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Guo Guangchang: how China’s Icarus fell to Earth

Guo Guangchang dodged the fate of many of his fellow business tycoons when the Chinese government cracked down on them. But his debt-laden empire is now facing a liquidity crunch.

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Why there were no buyers for the sale of Boots

Boots is a dull and boring business, says Matthew Lynn. It should focus on beauty and healthcare to spruce itself up.

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Phoenix Group’s 8.5% dividend yield looks here to stay

At a forecast 8.5%, Financial services group Phoenix, has one of the highest dividend yields in the FTSE 100. And it has all the hallmarks of a great income play, says Rupert Hargreaves.

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Natural Gas Futures (NG1!), H1 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 6.834Pivot: 6.026Support: 5.382Preferred Case:On the H1, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud and has broken the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 6.026 in line with the overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 6.834 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support level at 5.382 in line with the swing low support.Fundamentals:Due to the proposed strikes in Norway, there are increased fears about inadequate supply, giving us a bullish bias on the price of natural gas .

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