Wednesday, July 20, 2022
A grand tour of Chichester
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How to avoid a wage spiral in your business
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Tuesday, July 19, 2022
How Wise is profiting by slashing foreign exchange costs
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USDJPY – A reversal signal before the BOJ meeting?
USDJPY, H4
The USDJPY pair has eased from the high seen last week at 139.38 ahead of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decision meeting on Thursday. The bank is expected to maintain the ultra-low interest rate that has been in place since January 2016 at -0.1%, while other major central banks are using aggressive interest rates to curb rising inflation. Although the Japanese government has begun to express concerns about the sharp decline in the Yen, it has declined to comment on intervention.
In addition to keeping the interest rate negative, efforts to curb bond yields near 0% at 0.25% were evident during the second quarter of 2022, when Japan’s 10-year Treasury yields swung up and down in the 0.25% zone, another factor that put pressure on the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, Japan’s inflation rate rose for the ninth straight month to a seven-and-a-half-year high of 2.5% in April and May, and its GDP growth rate in Q1 contracted to -0.1% from 1% in Q4.
However, the BOJ’s interest rate decision meeting may be in the spotlight for the short term. If the market finds no surprise or interference from the Japanese government they will turn their attention to the next Fed rate decision meeting that is taking place next week. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates another 0.75% after a major rate hike of 0.75% in June too.
The USDJPY started the week with a correction above 138.00, while in the larger timeframe saw a rising wedge reversal pattern in the H4 timeframe that has been forming since May. This is accompanied by the bearish divergence signal seen in the Day timeframe, with support at 137.00, 136.30 and the next support at the 134.80 zone. The uptrend sees the possibility of a hidden bullish divergence that could encourage the pair to swing further in the rising wedge, which has first resistance at the previous high at 139.38 and the psychological figure of 140.00.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Is the eurozone heading for another crisis?
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Market Spotlight: Apple Shares Fall on Hiring News
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The IndeX Files 19-07-2022
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Investment Bank Outlook 19-07-2022
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Daily Market Outlook, July 19, 2022
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Market Update – July 19 – USD & Stocks Cool ahead of Central Banks
USDIndex continued last week’s slip and tested 106.80, before recovering. US Stocks dropped into close following +1% on open (NASDAQ -0.81%) after a plunge in the NAHB home builder index. Goldmans & Bank Of America, beat expectations but saw profits down -47% & -37%, respectively. IBM beat after hours, but shares fell -4.32%. Apple (-2.06%) warned of hiring freeze. Asian markets are choppy, (Hang Seng -0.82%, Nikkei +0.70%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields are up +1.72% & the rate curve is still inverted. Oil holds $100, Gold down to $1710 BTC holds at $22k. Gazprom warns of European supply issues and 700 new Covid cases reported in China, weigh on sentiment.
Week Ahead – ECB & BOJ Rate Decisions, RBA Mins, a raft of CPI & Retail Sales data and Earnings Season still has more Banks, Johnson & Johnson & Netflix today,with Tesla, Twitter & Snap later in the week.
- USDIndex slides further to test 106.80 and rotates around 107.00 now as expectations of a 100bp rate hike next week evaporate. AUD outperforms in Asian session.
- Equities – USA500 closed -0.84%, 32.31pts (3830), US500FUTS at 3850 now. A strong +1% opening rally was wiped out following weak Housing data and the Apple news.
- Yields 10-year yield higher, into close at 2.986%, trades at 2.96% now.
- Oil & Gold had volatile sessions last week – USOil trades up back under $100 now from a test of $102.00 yesterday. Gold tested to $1724 yesterday but back to $1707 now.
- Bitcoin rallied to $22.8K yesterday and holds $22k now, on more chatter of major investments coming.
- FX Markets – EURUSD remains pressured but tested 1.0200 yesterday & back to 1.016 now and USDJPY is down again to 137.85 now. Cable tested back to 1.2000 from 1.1760 lows last week. Race to be new PM is reduced to two contenders this week. New PM Sept 5.
Overnight – RBA Minutes – “committed to doing what is necessary on inflation” no new insight, UK Earnings (6.2% vs. 6.8%) & Payrolls are weaker and CHF Trade Balance lifted 70 bln CHF.
Today EZ CPI (Final), Speech from BoE’s Bailey. Earnings – J&J, Lockheed & Netflix.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). AUD continues to recover from last weeks 0.6680 low and no surprises today from RBA Minutes. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6900. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line higher, RSI 67 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00908.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Monday, July 18, 2022
RBOB GASOLINE FUTURES (RB1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise
from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/rbob-gasoline-futures-rb1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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Swiss Franc Futures ( 6S1! ), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise
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Micro CAD/USD Futures (MCD1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise
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Major Bank Earnings Miss, What About the Tech Sector?
Earnings reports from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and other banks missed market expectations and have set a weak tone ahead of scheduled reports for Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported last week that diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 totaled $2.76, down 27% from the same period last year. Net revenue reported in Q2 2022 was $30.7 billion, 1% more year-on-year, while net profit plunged 28% year-on-year to $8.6 billion.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s net income in the second fiscal quarter of 2022 fell 10.8% year-on-year to $13.1 billion, well below market expectations. Net income in Q2 2022 fell 28.6% y/y to $2.5 billion, while diluted earnings per share stood at $1.39, down 24.9% over the same period in 2021. By segment, Institutional Securities earnings stood at $6.1 billion, down from $7.1 billion a year earlier. Wealth and Investment Management revenues also shrunk compared to the same period in 2021, to $5.7 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively.
BlackRock reported EPS of $7.06, down 21% y/y. Revenue for the same quarter fell 6% from $4.8 billion to $4.5 billion, with operating income of $1.7 billion, down 14% over the same period last year.
Wells Fargo and Co revenue for Q2 2022 was $17.03 billion, down 15.9% over the same period last year. Net income was almost twice lower year on year, down about 48% to reach $3.11 billion in the last quarter of 20221, with diluted earnings per share also down 46% to $0.74 per year.
Its earnings for Q2 2022 Citigroup Inc. grew 11% year-on-year to $19.6 billion. Net income was $4.5 billion, down 27%, while earnings per share (EPS) fell 23% year-on-year to $2.19. The decline in revenue was driven by higher cost of credit and higher expenses, but was partially offset by an increase in revenue.
Bank of America maintains its buy rating ahead of Monday’s Q2 earnings report, although the longer-term price trend is still down. For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus EPS Forecast is at $0.77, recording a double-digit decline of 25% in year-over-year quarterly revenue. Additionally, six analysts have lowered their quarterly outlook over the past 60 days, with the Consensus Forecast Trend down 5%. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $1.03. Bank of America is currently at Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). In Q1 2022, the market especially reacted badly to the quarterly results. However, quarterly earnings forecasts show top-line strength; Estimated quarterly revenue of $23 billion recorded a solid 7% growth in sales from last year’s quarter.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. will also report earnings on the same day, before the market opens. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 9 analyst forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter was $6.99 reflecting a 53.46% year-on-year decline. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $15.02. For their most recent quarter, The Goldman Sachs Group reported earnings of $10.76 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.61 per share. This reflects a positive earnings surprise of 24.97%.
Meanwhile, Tesla will reveal how a tough Q2 affected revenue and how upgrades at its factories are progressing. CEO of Tesla Inc. Elon Musk said last Friday that the company could lower the price of electric vehicles if inflation eased. Musk wrote the comments in a tweet in response to user questions about whether Tesla has plans to lower its price due to problems with the supply chain. Earlier this month, Tesla said June was the most successful month in its history in terms of production, despite ongoing problems with the supply chain that resulted in temporary closures and layoffs at some of its plants. Tesla, Inc. expected to report earnings on Wednesday, after market close. Zacks’ Consensus estimates for earnings and quarterly earnings to be reported are pegged at $1.91 per share and $17.48 billion, respectively. Tesla reported revenue of $18.76 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a +80.5% year-on-year change. EPS $3.22 for the same period compared to $0.93 last year. Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.28 billion, the reported revenue represents a +8.57% surprise.
While Twitter’s earnings report is likely to be overshadowed by the ongoing dispute with Elon Musk. Twitter, Inc.’s board of directors. asked the company’s shareholders to approve the takeover of the company by the CEO of Tesla, Inc. Elon Musk’s $44 billion as the final step towards a deal. On Tuesday, Twitter initiated a lawsuit against Elon Musk in Delaware Cancer Court, after he ended a $44 billion deal to buy the social media company. Elon Musk has officially asked for more time to prepare for the Twitter, Inc. lawsuit. regarding its withdrawal from a $44 billion agreement to take over the company. Twitter, Inc. expected to report earnings on Friday before the market opens. The instant messaging service is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.16 per share in its forthcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -20%. Revenue is expected to be $1.33 billion, up 11.8% from last year’s quarter.
Netflix will be put to the test once again as investors brace for more subscribers this quarter. Netflix Inc. announced last week that it would partner with Microsoft on a new ad-supported subscription plan for clients, in addition to its existing ad-free basic, standard and premium plans. The statement was published a day after the Wall Street Journal reported that Netflix was talking to several Hollywood studios about changing agreements to allow streaming companies to offer their content on ad-supported versions of the platform. And this effort, will not affect the earnings report this time. Netflix, Inc. expected to report earnings on Tuesday, after market close. Zacks’ Consensus forecast for earnings is currently pegged at $2.90 per share, down 2% over the past 30 days. The figure represents a 2. 36% decline from the figure reported last year’s quarter. Netflix expects total revenue to increase 9.7% year over year to $8.053 billion
Source : Zacks Investment Research
Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia
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