Ruja Ignatova: the crooked cryptoqueen

Ruja Ignatova’s charm and guile, honed in the dark markets of post-Soviet Bulgaria, persuaded millions to invest in OneCoin, her Ponzi scheme. Then she disappeared.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/605142/ruja-ignatova-profile-crooked-cryptoqueen
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Soft data on German Economy Points to Elevated Recession Risks

European equities ended the week on a positive note despite higher-than-expected interest rate hike from the European Central Bank and disappointing survey data on activity in German manufacturing and services sectors.The ECB raised interest rates to zero percent on Thursday for the first time in 11 years, ending a negative interest rate policy in place since 2014This increase was more than the expected 25 basis points, which suggests that ECB officials are very worried about inflation, as the eurozone Consumer Price Index now stands at a record 8.6% per annum. The ECB also decided to remove guidance which suggests that Euro sensitivity to economic data releases and comments of central banks officials will increase.The latest data from the Eurozone PMI survey showed that growth in the region slowed, and this began even before the Central Bank began to tighten its monetary policy.Germany's key manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July, moving into the contraction zone and reaching its lowest level in 25 months, confirming forecasts that Europe's largest economy is heading into recession in the second half of 2022.Oil prices rose on Friday, consolidating after the recent sell-off amid weakening demand in the US, the world's largest consumer of oil.Data released earlier this week showed U.S. gasoline demand fell nearly 8% year-over-year at the height of the peak summer travel season, and this has weighed heavily on the price of WTI.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soft-data-on-german-economy-points-to-elevated-recession-risks"
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ECB Fails to Surprise the Euro with a Hawkish Turn as Growth Risks are in Focus

The EURUSD bounce on the surprising 50 bp rate hike from the ECB proved to be short-lived indicating that investors probably prefer to focus on fundamentals, other than the rate differential with the Fed. The pair erased gains made after the ECB meeting and moved lower on Friday, finding some support at 1.015 level. Judging by the BTP-Bund spread (key benchmark of credit risk on the EU government bond market), the new tool for preventing excessive rise of borrowing costs for troubled EU economies, announced by the ECB on Thursday, failed to soothe the concerns of investors. US markets closed higher; S&P 500 closed a few pips off the 4000 level. Nasdaq rose 1.5% yesterday along with long-dated Treasuries as their yield to maturity decreased sharply by 25 bp, from 3.07% to 2.82%.The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and initial jobless claims released yesterday indicated some weakness in the US economy, which could have contributed to increased demand in the Treasury market and, consequently, lower yields. Initial jobless claims rose for the third week in a row and are now at an 8-month high:The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index also fell short of expectations, dropping from -3.3 to -12 points, with a forecast of 0 points.The EURUSD reaction after the ECB meeting and subsequent price action on Friday show that the interest rate differential with the Fed plays a secondary role in determining medium-term movements of the pair. What really drives the pair is geopolitical risks and data points, clarifying how far the growth forecasts for the Eurozone and the US economies diverge. Increased sensitivity of EURUSD to such data releases has been confirmed today after the release of a batch of PMI data from S&P global on EU and Germany services and manufacturing sectors. EU-wide indices for both services and manufacturing sectors fell more than expected but remained above neutral 50 points, while activity in the German economy contracted compared to June:After the release of gloomy data, the EURUSD moved lower from1.02 to 1.0150, finding fresh equilibrium there:The pair is expected to revisit recent multi-year lows next week as there is non-zero chance of the Fed raising the rate by 100 bp next week. The room for hawkish surprises is large so a EURUSD rise above 1.025 is under a big question mark.Retail sales in the UK in July were marginally better than expected. Excluding fuel, retail sales even managed to rise by 0.4% MoM, against the forecast of -0.4%.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ecb-fails-to-surprise-the-euro-with-a-hawkish-turn-as-growth-risks-are-in-focus"
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E-mini Natural Gas Futures ( QG1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 9.060Pivot: 8.125Support: 7.195Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud and in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 8.125 in line with the pullback support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 9.060 where the pullback swing highs are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support level at 7.195 at the overlap support.Fundamentals:Due to the proposed strikes in Norway, there are increased fears about inadequate supply, giving us a bullish bias on the price of natural gas .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/e-mini-natural-gas-futures-qg1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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AUDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 0.69579Pivot: 0.68608Support: 0.67995Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, moving in an ascending support and breaking out of the descending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.68608 at the overlap resistance to the 1st resistance at 0.69579 at the swing high.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.67995 at the overlap support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation22"
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Market Spotlight: EURCAD Post-ECB Opportunities

EUR Lower Following ECBYesterday’s July ECB meeting saw a muted response in EUR. While the ECB pushed ahead with the larger-than-expected .5% rate hike, the bank’s accompanying guidance was less hawkish than previously. On the back of the meeting, traders have scaled back their rate-hike expectations for the remainder of the year. The ECB noted that eurozone activity is slowing, citing the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. While the bank forecasts that further rate hikes will likely be appropriate, it noted that any future action will be decided on a data-dependent basis.EUR has been weaker on the back of the meeting. Looking at EURCAD in particular, opportunities for fresh downside plays are building. The BOC hiked rates by a full 1% this month along with delivering a resolutely hawkish set of forward guidance, suggesting the need for further tightening over the remainder of the year. Looking ahead, this divergence between the more hawkish stance of the BOC and more cautious stance of the ECB looks likely to weigh on EURCAD.Technical ViewsEURCADThe pair has been grinding lower within a clear bear channel this year. Price recently broke below the 1.3384 level and is currently sitting on support at the 1.3031 level. With the retail market around 70% long, there is plenty of room for a downside break here. Bears can look for a downside break of this level targeting 1.2776 initially.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eurcad-post-ecb-opportunities"
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FOMO Friday: Nikkei Breaks Out

It’s been another eventful week in financial markets. We saw the ECB announcing its first rate hike in Over a decade, along with hawkish minutes from the RBA and a firmly dovish meeting from the BOJ. USD action was rather lacklustre this week which turned trader attention elsewhere. In the currency space, it was largely a case of risk currencies dominating safe-havens this week. However, looking outside of the Forex market, it seems the move capturing the most attention amongst traders was the more than 4% rally in the Nikkei. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If not? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Risk Sentiment Rebounding Amidst Weaker USDThe first driver behind the rally we’ve seen in the Nikkei this week is the broad pickup in risk sentiment. The US Dollar was correcting sharply lower at the start of the week, driven by recent comments from some Fed members who pushed back against the need for a larger 1% hike this month. On the back of June’s CPI report, traders had been mulling the prospect of more aggressive action than the Fed, e.g a larger rate-hike. However, Fed’s Waller & Bullard were seen pushing back against the idea of a larger hike, which led to some long-covering in USD at the start of the week. With USD moving lower, risk assets across the board were seen moving higher this week.Dovish BOJ MeetingAlongside the rebound in risk appetite, fuelled by a weaker USD, we also saw the Nikkei benefitting this week from a dovish BOJ meeting. While the rest of the G10 is tightening monetary policy on the back of the pandemic, the BOJ is the last remaining central bank still in easing mode. This week, the BOJ reaffirmed its commitment to easing, downplaying the likelihood of any near-term rate hikes, citing the remaining uncertainty and weakness within the economy, despite inflation running further above target.Technical ViewsNikkeiThe rally off the 25595.3 lows has seen the market breaking above the bear channel top and 27422.9 level. With both MACD and RSI turned bullish here, while above this level, the focus is on a further push higher towards the 28356.6 level. To the downside, should price slip back under 27422.9, 26246.0 will be the next main support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-nikkei-breaks-out"
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Market Update – July 22 – ECB Goes Large

USDIndex continued to decline testing 106.25, ECB surprised with Hawkish 50bp rate hike lifting rates above 0 (first hike since 2011) and lifting Euro. US Stocks had another positive day (NASDAQ +1.36%) TSLA +9.78%, SNAP +5.42% but dropped -24% after hours on Earnings miss AT&T -7.42% & United Airlines -10.17%. Asian markets are mostly positive. (Hang Seng -0.01%, Nikkei +0.40%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields are down -4.78%. Oil bounced from $95.00 trades at $98.00, Gold up $1720, BTC holds over $22k. Gazprom turns the gas back on but Europe remains nervous as solidarity is tested, Biden tests Covid positive.

• USDIndex slides further to test 106.25 before bouncing to 107.25 support as EURO rally cools.  
• Equities – USA500 closed +0.99%, 39.00pts (3998), US500FUTS at 3884 now.
• Yields 10-year yield lower into close at 2.91, trades at 2.915% now. 
• Oil & Gold had volatile sessions last week – USOil trades up from $95 to test $98.00. Gold tests $1720 now from $1680. 
• Bitcoin rallied to $23.8K yesterday and holds $22k now, on more chatter of major investments coming.
• FX Markets – EURUSD remains pressured but tested 1.0280 yesterday & back to 1.0142 now and USDJPY is down again to 137.58 now. Cable tested back to 1.2000 & back down ti 1.1913. Race to be new PM is reduced to two contenders this week. New PM Sept 5.

Overnight – UK Retail Sales and PMIs from  Europe, Germany, UK and US.

Today: UK & US Flash PMIs, UK Retail Sales, ECB SPF & CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, Verizon.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). AUD continues to recover from last week’s 0.6680 low and no surprises today from RBA Minutes. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6900. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line higher, RSI 67 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00908.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /495972/
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Investment Bank Outlook 22-07-2022

INGEUR: Volatile times aheadThe euro went on a roller coaster ride around the release of the statement and the press conference. Here are our three takeaways: First, this is another testament to how ECB hawkishness is proving insufficient to sustainably lift the euro. This is due to the fact that the deteriorating eurozone outlook and unstable risk sentiment continue to play a bigger role for the common currency. It also shows how markets had gone too far with their hawkish pricing before the meeting. Second, the sovereign spread factor is now officially the central theme in the eurozone. That is because announcing an anti-fragmentation tool and already laying out some relatively strict conditionality (the fiscal rule may be the main cause of concern) means that markets may stop focusing on the conditionality itself and instead look at the efficacy of the tool. This is especially true in the context of a collapsing ruling majority in Italy and a rise in the 10Y BTP-Bund spread caused by domestic political woes. The Lagarde-era ECB communication troubles may continue to be a source of downside risk to the euro, which will now trade more in line with sovereign spreads. Third, the end of forward guidance means that the market pricing on ECB tightening has lost an anchor and may make it (and by extension, the euro): a) volatile; b) more reactive to data; c) more reactive to ECB speakers. In other words, EUR volatility looks unlikely to fade this summer.We’ll take a first look at the euro’s new reaction function to data releases today, as markets will focus on eurozone PMIs. Consensus expectations are for another drop, although quite contained in size (52.0 to 51.0 in the composite gauge, according to a Bloomberg survey). Anyway, some recovery in the dollar may keep EUR/USD below 1.0200 today.An update about Italy: the President of the Republic will formalise the procedure for early elections over the coming days. The date for a vote has been decided: 25 September. Expect this to be mirrored in the EUR-crosses volatility curve. Opinion polls suggest the new prime minister could be Giorgia Meloni, leader of right-wing populist party Fratelli d’Italia, but she would need the support of another right-wing party (La Lega) and former PM Silvio Berlusconi’s party Forza Italia.USD: Climbing backA very eventful day in the eurozone resulted in high volatility but no real change in the overall G10 FX picture. The dollar is climbing across the board again this morning, and we are not surprised to see that.We had previously highlighted how the narrative of other central banks closing the gap with the Federal Reserve did not seem to be a realistic driver of sustained dollar depreciation, and yesterday’s post-ECB moves were likely a case in point as they showed how: a) the diverging growth outlook and exposure to geopolitical risks remain a primary driver of FX; b) the pricing for some G10 central banks – but not for the Fed - is already very hawkish, limiting the scope for hawkish surprises to be passed through the domestic currency.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-22-07-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, July 22, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 22, 2022 Overnight Headlines US Lawmaker: Biden Could Temporarily Lower China Tariffs EU Solidarity Frays As Nations Question Plan To Slash Gas Use Some ECB Officials Were Initially In Favour Of A Smaller Hike Raimondo: US Dependence On Taiwanese Chips Is Untenable Macron’s Government Charts Gradual Deficit Reduction Path Italian President Dissolves Parliament, Election Set For Sep 25 UK Consumer Mood Stuck At Record Low, GFK Survey Shows Poll Gives Truss Big Lead Over Sunak In Race To Become PM Global Slowdown Fears Darken Prospects For Asian Factories Japanese Inflation Picks Up Speed To Keep Pressure On BoJ Oil Prices Rise As Tight Supply And Geopolitical Tensions Linger Meta And Alphabet Knocked Down After Snap’s ‘Awful’ ResultsThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mostly positive, although there were some signs of momentum fading towards the close. Nevertheless, stocks ended the week higher. UK GfK consumer confidence was unchanged at -41, remaining at its record low but better than the consensus forecast for another decline. US 10-year Treasury yields remained below 3% after yesterday’s weak activity data, including a decline in the Philadelphia Fed survey and another rise in weekly initial jobless claims. In Europe, PM Draghi resigned and the President called for new elections on 25 September. Italian/German 10-year spreads have widened. Data released earlier this morning revealed UK retail sales fell by 0.1%m/m in June, while the May outturn was revised lower to a bigger 0.8%m/m decline. June’s fall occurred despite a boost to food store sales resulting from the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations. That was offset by lower non-store sales, led by clothing and household goods, and a drop in auto fuel sales due to record petrol and diesel prices. Non-store (mainly online) sales also fell. Compared with a year earlier, the volume of total retail sales was down 5.8%. The July flash PMIs in the UK, Europe and the US will be a key focus today. As well as updates on key activity metrics, the survey’s price indicators will be examined for tentative signs that inflationary pressures may have started to ease, although they will remain very elevated. Expect UK manufacturing PMI to edge up to 53.2 from 52.8, helping by a backlog of orders. However, lower non-essential spending is expected to result in services PMI moving down to 53.5 from 54.3. While official GDP figures are likely to be volatile because of the extra bank holiday for the Platinum Jubilee celebrations, the underlying picture from the PMI survey is expected to be one of moderating growth at the start of Q3. In the Eurozone, expect the flash PMIs for both manufacturing and services to fall to 51.6 and 52.0, respectively, also consistent with further growth moderation. In fact, the output index in the manufacturing survey already fell below 50 into contraction territory last month for the first time in two years. As usual, the Eurozone release IS preceded by German and French figures which suggest weakness The flash PMI survey tends to receive less focus in the US than in Europe. Nevertheless, it will likely attract some attention given that evidence of an economic slowdown is building. Look for both the manufacturing and services PMIs in July to move down to 52.0.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.000 (405M), 1.0050 (553M), 1.0080-85 (928M) 1.0100 (406M), 1.0140-50 (1.03BLN), 1.0200 (574M), 1.0300 (623M) USD/JPY: 137.55 (230M), 139.00 (630M), 140.00 (990M), 141.00 (500M) EUR/JPY: 139.00 (201M), 141.00 (485M), 143.00 (478M) EUR/GBP: 0.8750 (780M) AUD/USD: 0.6800 (1.24BLN) 0.6830 (290M), 0.6900 (1.21BLN) USD/CAD: 1.2900 (925M), 1.3000 (602M), 1.2955-60 (596M) 1.2975-80 (391M), 1.3000 (602M), 1.3100 (525M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 EUR/USD opened +0.50% at 1.0232 after ECB surprised many with a 50 BP hike Under pressure early Asia when E-minis fell after poor after-hours report from Snap Impact of ECB move faded as other negative factors continued to weigh Energy shortfalls, political uncertainty in Italy and TPI plan scepticism still concern Resistance 1.0250/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 Price testing the 20 Day Bearish VWAP 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2150 Cable dips to 1.1954 (intra-day low) after mixed UK retail sales data June retail sales down 5.8% YY vs 5.3% f/c; ex-autos up 0.4% MM vs -0.4% f/c May retail sales revised down by 0.3% to minus 0.8% MM Race to become UK PM down to final two: Sunak and Truss Offers sited at 1.2050 bids 1.1890 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 USD/JPY off in early Tokyo trading to 137.03, bounce since to 137.60 EBS Sales on back of sharply lower US yields on soft US data, Wall St rise US yields have since bounced , Treasury 2s to @3.140%, 10s @2.900% Good Japanese importer bids noted on early swoon towards 137.00 Interest likely trails down, from other players too 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 AUD/USD opened +0.68% at 0.6936 after USD eased following ECB 50 BP hike After trading at 0.6939 the mood turned sour after weak Snap after hours report E-minis fell and the AUD/USD tracked lower through the morning EUR/USD selling also added to the bullish USD tone and weighed on AUD/USD AUD/USD is trading at session lows around 0.6905 into the afternoon 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish above 22k BTC soft inline with risk sentiment BTC surrenders gains as another exchange halts withdrawals Needs to hold above 22.2k to keep rising near-term Would also mark exit from VWAP uptrend channel SE Asia exchange Zipmex suspends withdrawals 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-july-22-2022"
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What’s gone wrong in the aviation sector?

Airlines and airports seem woefully unprepared for the rebound in demand for flights after the pandemic. Why? And when will the outlook improve?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605145/whats-gone-wrong-in-the-aviation-sector
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James de Uphaugh: why shifting perceptions are good for UK stocks

Merryn talks to James de Uphaugh of the Edinburgh Investment Trust about why a “change in perception” of energy, mining, defence and bank stocks means the UK market could be well-placed to outperform.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/uk-stockmarkets/605119/moneyweek-podcast-with-james-de-uphaugh
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The bear market in bonds isn’t all bad news

The rise in bond yields and the fall in bond prices can be a good thing or bad thing. Bad for bondholders, but good for many risk-averse pensioners and pension savers. Max King explains why.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/bonds/government-bonds/605144/the-bear-market-in-bonds-isnt-all-bad-news
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GBPUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1.2166Pivot: 1.20548Support: 1.193482nd support: 1.1759Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices bouncing off the ichimoku indicator, RSI moving in an ascending trendline and price has broken out of the descending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 1.20548 where the swing high resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken the pivot, we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to 1st resistance at 1.2166 where the swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 1.19348 where the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Should price break 1st support, we would have a bearish bias that price will drop to 2nd support at 1.1759 in line with swing low support and 100% fibonacci projection.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gbpusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation21"
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