Are interest rates set to go higher than anyone thinks possible?

With inflation raging at 10% or more, central banks may have to raise interest rates to similar levels to keep it under control. But have they got the bottle to do that, asks Dominic Frisby?

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Investment Bank Outlook 26-07-2022

Societe GeneraleFocus switches to the US, even if there’s a very strong consensus about what the FOMC will decide on Wednesday. After a week in which the market was more focused on the ECB, Italy and natural gas flows from Russian to Germany, than anything happening elsewhere, attention switches back to the US – a bit, anyway. The market seems overwhelmingly convinced that the FOMC will hike rates by 75bp on Wednesday, and pretty confident that will be accompanied by a strong signal that there’s another 75bp coming in September. At the same time, the market is increasingly comfortable with the idea that Fed Funds will peak in late 2022, rather than in 2023. ¢ The danger of course, is that against the backdrop of a strong consensus, the FOMC is a damp squib and quickly forgotten ahead of Thursday’s GDP report, where a 0.5% q/q SAAR consensus ides a -1.6% to +2% range. If the data do throw up a negative print, it’ll trigger lots more recession chatter after Q1s =1.6%. This would not be a technical recession, as much as recession on a technicality, but fear of the recession to come would only grow. ¢I’ve listened to any number of discussions of the US economic outlook and what I think is missing, is awareness that what makes this difficult, is that policy only affects the inflation rate with a lag -and a big one at that. The sheer number of discrete shocks hitting the global economy and the lags before policy reaction takes effect, are why I think avoiding recession will be so hard, but the good news is that whenever I hear talk of a ‘hard landing’ these days, it’s with reference to 2009/2009. That’s good news because if 2008/09 is now the benchmark for a hard landing, the chances of this one being soft by comparison, are very high. The bad news is that it still won’t be fun.As long as recession fears are to the fore, US Treasuries will be capped. As long as they are capped, USD/JPY will be too, but more importantly, Bund yields will be capped, and so will EUR/JPY. The dollar can retain a risk aversion bid, but EUR/JPY looks to me to have turned the corner. EUR/JPY downside would be significant in case of any further reduction in the flow of gas through pipelines from Russia.INGEUR: EU decision on gas reduction in focusThe EUR continued to show some relatively elevated intraday volatility yesterday, despite remaining largely attached to the 1.0200 gravity line. Today, all eyes will be on the EU emergency meeting to discuss last week’s European Commission proposal to reduce gas consumption by 15%. The original EC draft has been heavily revised and the new proposal reportedly includes a number of exceptions and lower targets based on each country’s specific circumstances. The meeting follows Gazprom’s announcement that it will further cut gas flows via the Nord Stream link to around 20% of the pipeline’s capacity due to technical issues.

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Daily Market Outlook, July 26, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 26, 2022 Overnight Headlines Stock Bulls Deluded By ‘Wishful Thinking,’ Morgan Stanley Warns Coinbase Faces SEC Investigation Over Cryptocurrency Listings BoJ Board Agreed On Need For Ultra-Low Rates: June Meeting Minutes RBA’s Harper: Australia's Economy Robust, Can Withstand Hikes Korea’s Economy Accelerates, Giving Scope To Keep Raising Rates Dollar Near Recent Peaks As Fed Looms, Growth Fears Weigh Japan Long-End Curve Hits 2015 High As BoJ Angst Lingers Oil Rallies As Tight Supplies Counter Expectations Of A Slowdown Morgan Cuts Near-Term Brent, WTI Forecasts, Hikes 2023 Q3 And Q4 Asian Stocks Trader Higher Tuesday Ahead Of Possible US Rate Hike China's Alibaba To Apply For Dual Primary Listing In Hong Kong Walmart Issues Profit Warning As Soaring Inflation Hits Customers Whirlpool Cuts Forecast Less Than Feared, Sees Long-Term DemandThe Day Ahead Equity markets traded mixed in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan’s Nikkei is lower, but Hong Kong and China are outperforming helped by tech shares. Markets remain volatile and are focused on tomorrow’s Fed policy update as well as corporate earnings announcements. In Europe, concerns about the economic outlook deepen on reports that Russia extended curbs on gas supplies to the continent. The IMF will provide an update of its global economic forecasts later today. The CBI will release its UK distributive trades survey this morning after yesterday’s industrial trends survey which showed falls in the monthly net balances for new orders and output. Investment intentions in the quarterly segment of the industrial survey improved but remained weaker than at the start of the year. For the distributive trades survey, last month’s net balance for reported sales volumes was negative at -5% despite the boost to activity from the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations, while the balance for expected sales volumes was slightly negative at -2%. The consensus forecast is for this morning’s reported sales balance for July to weaken. There are no major Eurozone data releases today. Early tomorrow morning’s German and French consumer confidence reports are expected to show further declines. EU energy ministers are scheduled to meet today to try and come to an agreement over measures in response to a potential energy crisis this winter. US new home sales data are expected to show a further slowdown in the housing market as interest rates increase. Also of interest is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey. Last month’s confidence fell to a 16-month low of 98.7, led by increasing concerns about inflation. Expect a further decline in July to 97.5. The Richmond Fed’s regional manufacturing survey will also be released. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today and is expected to announce another 75bp increase in interest rates tomorrow. Australia will release Q2 CPI figures early Wednesday, which are expected to show an increase in the annual headline rate to 6.3% from 5.1% in Q1. That would be the highest for over thirty years. The trimmed mean measure is forecast to increase to 4.7% from 3.7%. The British Retail Consortium’s shop price index is also due early Wednesday. Its measure of shop price inflation last month was the highest since 2008. High inflation will maintain pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates further despite signs of economic slowdown, with markets partly discounting a 50bp rise next week.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0200 (762M), 1.0255-65 (1.25M). EUR/GBP: 0.8520-30 (290M) USD/JPY: 139.00 (970M), 140.00 (540M). EUR/JPY: 141.00 (727M), 143.00 (734M) GBP/USD: 1.1900 (368M), 1.1950 (392M), 1.2000-10 (625M) AUD/USD: 0.7000 (216M), 0.7150 (456M), 0.7200 (406M). NZD/USD: 0.6100 (489M) USD/CAD: 1.2750 (700M), 1.2800 (425M), 1.2900-10 (836M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Consolidation in quiet, thin Asain trade Traders weighting on the FOMC decision for directional catalyst Resistance 1.0250/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 Price testing the 20 Day Bearish VWAP 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2150 Recession fears mire Fed's rate outlook; 75bps priced in Bank of England also set to hike Aug 4; 25bps likely But chance of 50bps inspires GBP/USD longs Sunak and Truss TV debate does little to inspire Offers sited at 1.2050 bids 1.1890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 Lower with US yields weigh as growth concerns continue to mount U.S. yields fall in reaction to Walmart's dire outlook Walmart 'train wreck' profit warning sparks further recession fears BOJ agreed on need for low rates, June monetary policy meeting minutes show Offers sited 137.30/50 bids at 135.10 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 AUD prints 1 month highs China positivity aids commodities and AUD Iron ore up 4+% and copper up 1.65% on China demand Recovery in metals premised on China supporting property funds The rally in commodities forcing AUD/USD shorts to cover Sentiment improving despite global growth concerns Offers sited .7000/10 AUD/USD support is at Friday's 0.6876 low and break targets 0.6840/45 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish above 22k BTC testing pivotal 21k level Coinbase regulatory concerns weigh on sentiment Falls out of VWAP uptrend channel Closing below 21k will be a meaningful downside development If below 20.5k, downtrend channel back in play Risk appetite fragile leading up to Wed FOMC decision 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-july-26-2022"
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Market Update – July 26 – On Hold Ahead of FED, Oil Rallies

USDIndex ticked lower again but held over 106.00, ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow. FX markets subdued with a 75 bp hike fully priced in, however uncertainty weighs over guidance. Russia will cut gas supplies to Europe from tomorrow. US Stocks rallied into close after a weak day (NASDAQ -0.43%), Walmart fell -9% (after hours) following profit warning, Newmont missed earnings -13%. AMZN raised prices for Amazon Prime.  Alibaba cut back global expansion plans. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng +1.76%, Nikkei -0.23%). European FUTS lower too. Yields bounced to closed up +1.67%. Oil rallied $5/barrel to $98.00 after Russian announcement. Gold remains under $1725 and BTC under $22k. Biden talked down a “recession” and called for more investment from Oil companies.

Week Ahead – FED Rate Decision, US GDP and Earnings Season sees the technology giants (APPL, AMZN  & META) plus many more companies all reporting Q2 data.

• USDIndex up support at 106.20 – to 106.30 – the Dallas & Chicago Fed indexes both slumped and remained in negative territory, another sign of recession. 
• Equities – USA500 closed +5.12 pts (0.13%) (3966), US500FUTS at 3958 now. 4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows… 
• Yields 10-year yield recovered to close at 2.8%, trades lower again at 2.79% now. 
• Oil – in–focus following tight supply and the announcement from Russia rallied over 5% from $93. 
• Gold  had a volatile session from $1736 to $1714 to settle at $1724 once again. 
• Bitcoin sank from $21.8K yesterday down to $21k now. 
• FX Markets – EURUSD remains pressured but rotates at 1.0225, USDJPY down to test 136.00 yesterday; now 136.70. Cable breached the key 1.2000 last week, trades at 1.1990 now. 

Overnight – JPY CPI & PPI – firmer & in-line at 1.6% & 2.0% respectively. 

Today – US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, EU’s Energy Summit. Earnings from MSFT, GOOGL, Coca-Cola McDonalds, UBS (missed), 3M, UPS, GE, Visa 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+2.37%). Continued to rallied from 3.2460 lows last week to 3.4370 now, next resistance 3.4687 (20-day MA). MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 73 & OB zone, H1 ATR 0.0172, Daily ATR 0.1246.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

from HF Analysis /496599/
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AUDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 0.70635Pivot: 0.69923Support: 0.68946Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and breaking out of the descending trend channel and moving in an ascending support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.69923 at the overlap resistance in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to the 1st resistance at 0.70635 at the swing high resistance.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may reverse off pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.68946 at the pullback support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation26"
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GC1!, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1738.4Pivot: 1721.1 Support: 1679.3Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within a descending channel and RSI moving in a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 1721.1 where the pullback resistance is to 1st support at 1679.3 in line with 100% fibonacci projection and swing low support on the daily timeframe.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot and rise to 1st resistance at 1738.4 where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and swing high resistance are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gc1-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation26"
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How to protect your pension pot from market turmoil

The traditional way to protect your pension fund from market risk is to begin shifting your saving out of equities well ahead of retirement. But there are some problems with this approach, says David Prosser.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/pensions/605128/how-to-protect-your-pension-pot-from-market-turmoil
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Investment Bank Outlook 25-07-2022

BofA USD: We have not been bullish enough We have been out-of-consensus USD bulls this year, but it now turns out we have not been bullish enough. EURUSD is back to parity after 20 years. USDJPY is at 139, the highest level since the East Asian financial crisis in the late-1990s. Cable at 1.18 has reached the lowest level since the early pandemic dip. The USD is by far the stronger G10 performer this year, with the JPY the weakest and EUR and GBP in the middle. The overheating US economy and the hawkish Fed have a lot to do with the strong USD. We have been expecting global inflation to be sticky on the way down, but it is still on the way up. US (and UK) headline and core inflation rates are the highest in G10. The US labor market remains strong and stretched. The Fed is downplaying recession risks and is focusing on inflation. The Fed is also allowing the equity market to correct sharply lower, removing its policy put.EUR: Back to parityTo a large extent, EURUSD reaching parity has reflected USD strength rather than EUR weakness. However, the EUR has also weakened recently and is so far the worst performer in G10 in July. The ECB is the last G10 central bank to start hiking, with the exception of the BoJ. As Eurozone inflation has strongly surprised to the upside and other central banks have been hiking aggressively, the ECB has fallen behind. While all other central banks are focusing only on fighting inflation, the ECB is also concerned about the periphery. It remains to be seen whether and how the new anti-fragmentation policy tool will address these concerns, to allow the ECB to start a proper tightening cycle, but achieving both goals might prove to be challengingINGUSD: High conviction on 75bp hike by the FedFollowing a rather tumultuous ECB week, we’ve entered Fed week with markets likely having a more solid conviction call on the magnitude of the rate increase. After having quite briefly flirted with the idea of 100bp, investors have centred their expectations around a 75bp move on Wednesday, which is also where economists’ consensus and our baseline scenario lies. Compared to last week’s ECB meeting, there appears to be more limited scope for a surprise in each direction at the July FOMC and we, therefore, expect market volatility to be impacted less this week.From an FX perspective, we could see a Fed that largely endorses current market pricing for future rate hikes, having a somewhat contained impact on the dollar in the immediate aftermath of the rate announcement. However, we think the Fed message could put a floor under the dollar into September, as the notion that the Fed is still in the front-loading phase of tightening could prevent markets from offloading their long dollar positions. Incidentally, other major central banks (ECB and Bank of England in particular) appear more exposed to dovish re-pricing risks.Looking at other FX drivers this week, recession fears should continue to prevent a solid recovery in risk sentiment, which should incidentally give some extra support to safe-havens (including USD) and may keep the path uneven for high-beta commodity currencies. On the data side, the 2Q advance release of US GDP figures (after the Fed meeting) should be rather uninspiring, and our economists expect a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter annualised reading (consensus: 0.5%). That should already be in the price, and we doubt it can significantly derail the Fed’s tightening plans or the market’s pricing given that the Bank’s message already embeds the idea of sacrificing economic activity to a certain degree in order to fight inflation.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-25-07-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, July 25, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, July 25, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed To Implement Second 75bps Rise Amid Uncertainty Over Next Steps ECB Holzmann: ECB May Accept ‘Light Recession’ If CPI Outlook Rises US Dollar Firm Monday As Fed Meeting And Growth Risks Dominate German Industry Cuts Production Due To High Energy Prices - DIHK Italy Democrats Weigh Election Alliances, Letta Tells Repubblica Janet Yellen Says Signs Of Us Recession Aren’t In Sight For Now China Plans To Set Up Real Estate Fund Worth Up To $44 Bln Aus PM Albanese Calls for China to End Trade Sanctions on Australia PBoC Official Vows to Protect User Privacy in Digital Yuan Push Japan Yield Drops To Four-Month Low On Global Slowdown Fears Oil Falls On Concerns Expected Fed Hike Will Impact Fuel Demand Asian Shares Start Week Lower, Tracking Wall St Retreat Ahead Of Fed China Plans Three-Tier Data Strategy To Avoid U.S Delisting’s Credit Suisse Mulls Job Cuts As Losses Rise - Sonntagszeitung Boeing Union Workers Reject Contract Offer, Call For Strike - RTRSThe Day Ahead Most Asia equity markets are trading lower this morning on concerns about the global economic outlook. One driver may be last Friday’s surprising plunge in the US services PMI survey to 47.0 from 52.7 which triggered a drop in 10-year Treasury yields below 2.75%. US Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Yellen, however, said that she does not see a broad recession due to the strong labour market even if this Thursday’s Q2 GDP is negative for a second successive quarter. The UK calendar is light on official data this week. The monthly CBI industrial survey for July is scheduled to be released this morning. The report will provide the usual update on orders, output and selling prices. Last month showed moderation in total orders and expected output, and there was a notable easing in the net balance for selling prices, although it remains high relative to pre-Covid levels. Today’s report will also contain more detailed quarterly results, and possibly of most interest will be the extent to which investment intentions are holding up. The last set of quarterly questions in April showed the weakest investment intentions since early 2021. In politics, the two remaining candidates in the Conservative leadership contest to be next PM, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, will face each other in a televised debate later today. The German IFO survey will be closely watched as usual for the latest gauge of business sentiment in the Eurozone’s biggest economy. Last month’s headline business climate index fall was led by a particularly large drop in the forward-looking expectations component. Look for the headline index to decline further in July to 90.0 from 92.3, which would be a two-year low reflecting big concerns about energy supply and security. Also look for falls in both the current assessment index to 97.0 (from 99.3) and the expectations index to 83.0 (from 85.8). In the US, the Dallas Fed’s regional manufacturing survey and the Chicago Fed’s national activity index will come out. They normally attract limited attention, and more important data releases are due later this week, but markets will be looking for further signs of economic slowdown. Overnight, the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s June meeting will be released. The BoJ stands out as the only G7 central bank to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels. It will be interesting to see if there are any signs of pressure on the BoJ to alter its stance as inflation creeps higher. Policymakers, though, are more likely to maintain current policy settings given that evidence appears to show domestic price pressures remaining subdued.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0200 (646M), 1.0250 (1.86B), 1.0300 (406M) GBP/USD: 1.2010 (575M), 1.2050-55 (447M). EUR/GBP: 0.8550 (431M) AUD/USD: 0.6750 (1.09B), 0.6895-05 (587M), 0.6925 (453M), 0.6950-55 (915M) AUD/USD: 0.7000 (1.07B). NZD/USD: 0.6100 (653M), 0.6300 (476M) USD/CAD: 1.3010 (700M), 1.3100 (553M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 EUR/USD under pressure in Asia as USD bids emerge EUR/USD has traded as low as 1.0180 after trading 1.0220 earlier A break below 1.0130 would encourage bears again Mood in Asia is cautious with e-minis and AXJ index down 0.25% Resistance 1.0250/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 Price testing the 20 Day Bearish VWAP 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2150 Summer doldrums trade in GBP Asia session, limited directional flows Cable coming under pressure as LDN comes in lack of liquidity Some option expiries above today - 1.2010 GBP566 mln, 1.2050-55 446 mln Sunak and Truss TV debate eyed later Offers sited at 1.2050 bids 1.1890 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 134 Good Japanese and spec buying of USD/JPY from the get go in Asia USD/JPY as low as 135.58 EBS Friday, Asia today 136.12 to 136.58 Thinner, summer holiday-affected markets leading to larger swings Japanese importers amongst those buying large, still dip-buyers Other interest also noted including some investors, on carry interest Offers sited 137.30/50 bids at 135.10 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Recovering from pressure early Asia as USD firms to start the week AUD/USD testing 0.6900 as USD moves higher across the board The 10-year US yield is up 3 BPs to 2.787% and underpinning USD E-mini futures weakening and likely to weigh on AUD AUD/USD support is at Friday's 0.6876 low and break targets 0.6840/45 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish above 22k BTC slides 3.2% below 22k, threatening deeper drop Falls out of VWAP uptrend channel Closing below 22k will dampen BTC in near term If below 20.5k, downtrend channel back in play Risk appetite fragile leading up to Wed FOMC decision Possibility of jumbo 100bps hike can't be ruled out 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-july-25-2022"
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Market Update – July 25 – FED & Tech Giant Earnings Week

USDIndex pushed under 106.00 on Friday (closed at 106.50) as the US Services sector contracted for first time in 2 years. US Stocks sank into close (NASDAQ -1.87%), big declines for tech companies, led by a -39% for SNAP. Asian markets also negative to start the week, (Hang Seng -1.18%, Nikkei -0.79%). European FUTS also lower too. Yields tanked to closed down -4.74%. Oil under $94, Gold under $1725 and BTC under $22k. High Inflation, Rising Interest Rates and Weak Consumer and Business confidence continues to weigh on sentiment. The CME “FedWatch Tool”¹ still has a 21.3% chance of a 100bp rate hike on Wednesday. Russia & Ukraine signed agreement to allow grain exports to start but then Russia shelled Odessa, UK PM race is getting increasingly bitter and Lavrov is on a tour of Africa.

Week Ahead – FED Rate Decision, US GDP and Earnings Season sees the technology giants (APPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL & META) plus many more companies all reporting Q2 data.

• USDIndex from lows at 105.96 on Friday (US Services PMIs big miss and into contraction at  47.00 vs 52.7) now trades at 106.60.
• Equities – USA500 closed -0.93% -37pts (3961), (Week + 2.4%). US500FUTS at 3958 now. SNAP +39.04%, TWTR (+0.8%, Earnings not as bad as expected), AMEX (+1.9% Earnings beat & increase Revenue forecast) Verizon -6.8% profits cut, META, -7.6%, GOOGL -5.6%
• 106 companies have reported; 75.5% have beat estimates.(average for last 4 quarters 80% beat.) Strong Dollar hindering. 
• Yields 10-year yield significantly lower at 2.783%, trades lower again at 2.75% now. 
• Oil & Gold had volatile & weak sessions last week – USOil traded from over $102 support down to $94.15 lows, and is lower again today at $93.00. OPEC next meet Aug 3. Gold fell to $1680 lows last week but recovered $1700 and trades back to $1725 now.  
• Bitcoin rallied to $24K, last week, breaking away from the $20k level but is back to $21.8K today 
• FX Markets – EURUSD remains pressured but rotates at 1.0200, USDJPY down to test 135.50  last week – now 136.30. Cable breached the key 1.2000 last week, trades at 1.1990 now. 

Overnight – 

Today – German Ifo Survey, UK CBI Trends, US National Activity Index, Earnings from Ryanair, Philips, Vodafone, Infosys, Newmont and NXP Semiconductor. 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.40%). Rallied from a test under 0.9600 on fRiday to 0.9645 now next resistance 0.9658 & 0.9675. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram neagtive but rising, RSI 52 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00125, Daily ATR 0.00800.

¹https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

from HF Analysis /496286/
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USDJPY, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 137.766Pivot: 136.703Support: 134.766Preferred Case:On the H4, with price broken out of the ascending trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from our pivot at 136.703 where the overlap resistance is to the 1st support at 134.766 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 137.766 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/usdjpy-h4-or-potential-bearish-continuation257"
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NZDUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 0.63269Intermediate resistance: 0.62717Pivot: 0.62048Support: 0.61419Preferred Case:On the H4, with price breaking out of the descending trend channel, moving in a short term ascending support and moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.62048 at the overlap support. If price breaks the intermediary resistance at 0.62717 at the swing high in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection, we will have upside confirmation that price will rise to the 1st resistance at 0.63269 at the swing high in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price may break the support structure at the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.61419 at the pullback support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation257"
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Three airline stocks for the post-pandemic travel boom

Professional investor Frank Holmes of the US Global Jets UCITS ETF picks three airline stocks that are ready for take-off.

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Argentex: opportunities for investors after temporary setback

Currency-exchange specialist Argentex has missed expectations, but growth should resume next year, says Bruce Packard.

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