Earnings Season: Booking Holdings Inc

Booking Holdings Inc. is a company dedicated to the implementation of technology for tourism such as search engines and an online travel agency that includes flight reservations, lodging, and car rental among other services. The company owns and operates several travel fare aggregators including booking.com (their main source of revenue), kayak.com, momondo, rentalcars.com, etc. It operates in 200 countries with approximately 100 million active users and a capitalization of 78.63B.

Booking Holdings Inc. is expected to release its second quarter 2022 earnings report this Wednesday, August 3 after the market close.

Price and surprise EPS
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/BKNG/price-eps-surprise

According to Zacks, Booking ranks #4 (Sell) at position #146/#251 in the internet-commerce industry. Expected EPS is $17.73-$17.85, after last quarter’s EPS of $3.90 with a Surprise EPS of 2885.71%. Compared to the same quarter of last year with $-2.55 this would be an increase of +795% y/y and with an ESP of +0.67% this would be the 6th time that it has exceeded expectations. Net sales are expected at $4.35B compared to the same quarter of last year, at $2.16B, an increase of +101% y/y. EPS has had 0 upward revisions and 3 downward revisions in the last 30 days.

EPS Booking Holdings for this quarter Source:https://www.nasdaq.com/es/market-activity/stocks/bkng/earnings

Despite Booking shares being down 30% from their current high, the company has been on the mend as the pandemic subsides and travel spending is reinstated on increased demand despite the economic contraction plaguing the world due to inflation. All indications are that global travel spending will eventually return to pre-pandemic levels and the company should continue to deliver growing bookings and other beneficial business metrics going forward as a continued recovery. The problem however is that the markets have priced in most of the rally higher, which explains the overall market sell off.

In the first quarter of the year, the company presented a record in its reservations reaching $27B (+7% compared to 1Q 2019), mainly thanks to Booking.com which contributed 34% of its reservations processed by its own payment platform. For the summer, reservations on the platform increased by 15% compared to 2019, while Europe and North America increased by more than 30%. It is expected that for this quarter there will also be an operating profit.

Booking has also dabbled in a bid to appeal to younger generations, creating its first TikTok marketing campaign.

Booking’s goal is to inspire people to travel, create positive interactions with the brand and make them think of the company as travel leaders.

-Laura Kaye, Director of Social Media at Booking.com

A current obstacle to consider for Booking and all travel companies is that not only are there outbreaks of Covid in several countries that are once again placing restrictions on their populations (such as in China) but also that the world is facing a new virus that could cause problems, although to a lesser extent. Monkeypox, which started a viral outbreak in the United Kingdom at the beginning of the year, already has more than 22k cases worldwide, with health authorities very attentive and alert to its progress. In the US there are more than 5k cases and last week an emergency was declared in NY and San Francisco accelerating the planning for the control of the outbreak, which although it has not yet caused lockdowns, if it continues with the current rate of spread there is a chance of them happening in the future, albeit a low one.

On the other hand and following the recovery, Booking.com has had a 12.5% increase in website performance compared to last month with a total of 424.6 million visits with a 39.57% bounce rate. There has been a consecutive increase, with 347.8M in April, 377.5M in May and 424.6M in June, with the US being the main contributor with 16.92% of the total, followed by Germany with 7.74%.

Technical analysis

Booking Holdings Inc has been in a downtrend for 6 months from its high at 2,713.64 and is currently trading at 1,906.11 with a rebound from last month’s low at 1,666.98. Price is currently at the 50% Fibo at 1,909.35 of the bullish momentum that started from 1,105 in March 2020 to all-time high in February this year.

The price could not stay above 2,500 and last month it broke the psychological level of 2,000; despite the fact that last month it rose more than 3% the price has not managed to recover the psychological mark and for the moment remains below it.

Support is at the 20 period SMA D1 at 1,797.57, a wide support range of 1,600-1,700, the psychological level at 1500.00 and lastly the lows of the current cycle at 1,105; from there support is at the nearby highs of April-May 2012 at 770.00. Current resistances are at the 50-period D1 SMA at 1,956.19, the 2k psychological mark, the 100-period daily SMA at 2,068.84, the 38.2% Fibo at 2,099, the 200-period D1 SMA which currently coincides with the downtrend at 2,200, highs of June at Fibo 23.6% at 2,334.05, psychological mark of 2,500 and up to all-time highs. Daily RSI at 54.73 with a bullish bias, although down from 57 to 54.

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Aldo Zapien

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Sources: 

1. https://www.nasdaq.com/es/market-activity/stocks/bkng/earnings
2. https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/BKNG
3. https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1960224/booking-holdings-bkng-outpaces-stock-market-gains-what-you-should-know?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID03-txt-1960224
4. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/booking-holdings-bkng-outpaces-stock-market-gains%3A-what-you-should-know

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ETHUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 1783.95Pivot: 1646.5Support: 1464.71Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our pivot at 1646.5 where the overlap resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 1783.95 where the swing high resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 1464.71 where the pullback support, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.

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Moderna: Bullish Flag Ahead of Q2 2022 Earnings Report

Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca plc last week reported second-quarter 2022 fiscal year revenue of $10.8 billion, a 31% jump over the same period last year. Reported earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter fell 45% y/y to $0.23, while core EPS skyrocketed 92% y/y to $1.72.

On Wednesday, Moderna Inc., a company operating in the same sector as AstraZeneca plc, will also report its fiscal year 2022 second quarter earnings, prior to the market open. Moderna is expected to report its first drop in sales since it started making big money selling its Covid-19 vaccine.

In its previous Q1 2022 report, Moderna Inc. reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) soaring 202% y/y to $8.58, while net income also jumped 200% to reach $3.7 billion. The company reported revenue for the quarter jumped 213% to $6.1 billion. Sales of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine products in the first quarter of 2022 were $5.9 billion, compared with $1.7 billion in the same quarter of 2021.

The market remains uncertain about what will happen this year for Moderna. According to Zacks Investment Research forecasts, the biotechnology company will post quarterly earnings of $4.50 per share, representing a year-over-year change of -30.3%. Revenue is expected to be $3.89 billion, down 10.7% from last year’s quarter. The Zacks Consensus forecast suggests that analysts have recently become bearish on the company’s earnings outlook. This has resulted in an ESP Income of -0.22%, with the stock currently having a Zacks Rating of #3(hold).

As the pandemic has subsided, the hype surrounding Covid-19 vaccine makers has waned and attention will turn to how demand is shaping up and whether the government is still committed to tackling the sub-variants. Moderna said it expects to secure slightly more orders in the second half, compared to the first. The company announced one major new deal this year after agreeing to sell 66 million doses of its vaccine (appr. $1.74 billion) to the US government while continuing its booster program, with the government having the option to buy another 234 million doses based on the initial round price (worth $6.2 billion).  That would give some insight, though, that the government remains committed to continuing ongoing vaccination. Moderna hopes to release three respiratory medications in the next two to three years, if all goes to plan. A new vaccine targeting the BA.4/5 sub-variant is in progress.

Technical Overview

Moderna shares are currently trading around the $165.00 area in a bullish flag pattern, having hit their highest level in more than two months at $180 last month. The $180 level could be a tough barrier to break, if the expected earnings report misses expectations. But on the other hand, if these key figures are better than expected, the stock price will be helped. The main barriers to the $115.48 rebound are at the $187.98 structural resistance and the 200-day EMA. If both barriers are crossed, Moderna’s price could be in reversal mode for the short term and potentially pursue the 38.2% retracement level around $260.00.

Earlier, a break of the resistance at 152.61 last month brought  technical attention to a broken bearish structure, that the rebound still has at least some strength to creep to the upside. On the downside, a move below the $151.43 minor support would bring the bias back to the downside to test the 135.33 price and the 115.48 low.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Weekly Market Update 01 August 2022

The new month kicks off with the Dollar on the defence, as investors digest the weak Q2 GDP data (-0.9%) which has put the US in a technical recession.

Dollar

The Greenback begins the week under significant pressure largely driven by the GDP data that came out last week, confirming two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This key development, along with the likelihood of the FED responding with further tightening in the coming months, has weakened the outlook for the Dollar in the short-term and as a result we saw the index hit a three-week low in the morning session. Going into the week, investors will be looking at key economic data such as final manufacturing PMI and initial jobless claims as well as the Non-Farm Payroll.

Technical Analysis (H4)

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price has confirmed the formation of the bearish continuation pattern (Bear Flag) that we discussed last week and has gone on to break the major trendline that has been holding the uptrend since 29 May 2022. The impulsive nature of the break puts sellers in control to potentially hit the first technical level around the 104.55 area.

Euro

The Euro began this week trading at three-week highs at the 1.02678 area, on the back of weaker dollar demand and improved risk-sentiment in the market. Since bottoming out at parity, the Euro has been buoyed somewhat and some commentators are linking this to the ongoing US recession fears that have been on the horizon for a while now. However, this lift could be short-lived as investors will be monitoring the supply of Russian gas flows because of the larger economic effect it will have on the European Union as a whole, with potential shortages which are leading to sky-high prices that could last until 2024.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price is still locked in the potential bullish continuation pattern (Bull Flag) that we identified last week. An impulsive break above the structure at the 1.02786 area will be the catalyst for the confirmation of this pattern and will put buyers in the driving seat to challenge the 1.04518 area. On the flipside, if the above-mentioned scenario fails, price could potentially revisit last week’s lows around the 1.01320 area.

Pound

Sterling kicked off the week continuing its three-week bullish momentum hitting a three-week high on Monday in the London session. A key factor driving this exuberance is the sentiment that monetary policies between the BoE and the US FED are narrowing as the BoE positions itself for a 50bps rate hike on Thursday in contrast to the cautious stance that the FED is beginning to take going into the latter half of the year.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price confirmed the bullish continuation pattern (Bull Flag) that we identified last week, by printing out an impulsive break to the upside. As it stands, buyers are in firm control of price and will likely challenge the 1.23332 area henceforth.

Gold

The yellow metal came out the gate holding onto gains from last week, hitting a three-week high on Monday morning during the London session. These gains are heavily linked to Dollar weakness, as a cheaper dollar makes Gold more accessible to buyers, as well as the growing recession fears which have driven some of the exuberance we are seeing from investors in the safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price has confirmed the bullish continuation pattern (Falling Wedge) by subsequently printing out an impulsive wave above the structure. Going forward, price could potentially stall around current areas at the $1,777 level as it could be a point of interest for sellers. Nevertheless, if bulls continue to drive price up and break above this level impulsively, we could see buyers go on to challenge the $1,812 area.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ofentse Waisi

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, August 2, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 2, 2022 Overnight Headlines Biden Team Tries To Blunt China Rage As Pelosi Heads For Taiwan Chinese Leaders Report GDP Goal Is Guidance, Not A Hard Target Several China’s Warplanes Fly Close To Taiwan Strait Median Line Sec Blinken Dodges Question On US Return To Iran Nuclear Talks Biden, Putin Strike Conciliatory Tones As Nuclear Arms Talks Start Democrats Side Deal With Manchin Would Speed Up Gas Projects US Treasury Raises Quarterly Borrowing Estimate To $444 Billion Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki Frets About Hectic Yen Swings Australia Central Bank Raises Rates 50bp To 1.85%, As Expected UK PM Candidate Truss Lifted By Former Rival Mordaunt Backing Italy Right-Wing Favourites See Room To Revamp Recovery Plan Yen Recovery Continues On Lower US Yields As Markets On EdgeThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are down sharply this morning. US-Sino relations are in focus as US Congressional leader Pelosi seems set to begin a visit to Taiwan today despite objections from China. She may meet with President Tsai tomorrow. A US National Security spokesperson said that the trip should not be seen as a provocation. However, the Chinese have warned of “grave consequences”. The Australian central bank as expected raised interest rates by 50 basis point the fourth consecutive increase since May. It also said that it was committed to bringing inflation down but that rates were “not on a pre-set path”. There are no major data releases today. However, in the US the June JOLTS survey of job openings and labour market turnover will provide further detail on employment trends. The main monthly report for June that was released a few weeks ago showed employment growth slowing but overall, the message seemed to be that the labour market is still tight. The same message is expected from today’s report. Job openings and turnover are both projected to have slipped but with demand for labour continuing to run ahead of supply. This is important not least because US Federal Reserve policymakers have cited that as evidence the economy is not in recession despite confirmation GDP fell in the first half of 2022. They also remain concerned that labour market tightness may further fuel wage growth. Several Fed policymakers seem likely to touch on those topics in speeches today. A key theme of last week’s Fed monetary policy update, when interest rates were raised again, is that policymakers are still more concerned about inflationary pressures than they are by signs that economic growth has stalled. Today’s speakers seem set to once again strongly emphasise that message. Financial markets in contrast appear increasingly convinced that a sharp slowdown in growth is the bigger risk. So, it will be very interesting to hear to what extent today’s speakers try to push back against that sentiment. Overnight Australian retail sales and the China Caixin services index will provide updates on trends in the Asia-Pacific region. Today’s interest rate rise indicates that the Australian central bank is currently more concerned about inflation but markets will be looking for signs that monetary policy tightening may be raising downside growth risks. Meanwhile, the Caixin comes in the wake of other Chinese PMI outturns for July having disappointed.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0240 (556M) EUR/GBP: 0.8645 (481M), 0.8660-65 (592M) AUD/USD: 0.7160 (641M). NZD/USD: (380M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Pelosi inspired geopolitical fears adding to global growth worries Asia was risk-off and resulted in EUR/JPY selling at various stages It also weighed on US yields, which helped to underpin the EUR/USD Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 Steady in a 1.2212-1.2279 Asian range, off its best levels as LDN starts Risk off, awaiting China response to Pelosi Taiwan visit BoE rate decision Thursday; 50 bps hike is consensus forecast Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.2090 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 134 Japanese importers nowhere to be seen, biding time awaiting lower levels Japan FinMin Suzuki jaw-boning Suzuki again warned of rapid FX moves, this time to downside Drop defusing implications of ccy manipulation, purposely weakening JPY Bears target a test of 130 Offers seen at 134 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 RBA statement similar to the July's and signals more tightening to come There weren't any hawkish surprises, but RBA retaining hawkish bias AUD/USD was under pressure earlier on heavy AUD/JPY selling out of Tokyo Risk-off mood prevailed in Asia with the AXJ index falling over 1.5% Geopolitical fears on Pelosi's Taiwan visit adding to global growth concerns With RBA decision out of the way, AUD/USD will be driven by external factors Offer at .70 being eroded as price is accepted above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC sub 23k Risk aversion underway, largely due to US-China tensions US Speaker Pelosi expected to visit Taiwan Tues... Potential for aggressive China reaction spooks stocks Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k would be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearish

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Market Update – August 2 – Pelosi Taiwan Visit Saps Sentiment

USDIndex sinks again to 105.00, dragged lower by falling Yields (10yr -2.88% to 2.54%). US Stocks lower following record July. HSBC +6.5% Boeing +5.96% Pearson +12.66% BBBY +14.77%. Asian markets pressured lower by Pelosi’s proposed visit to Taiwan and China promising “countermeasures” including “military actions”. (Hang Seng -2.68%, Nikkei -1.44%). European FUTS also lower. (-0.6%).  Oil tanks under $93, Gold spiked to  $1780  and BTC down under $23k.

RBA raised rates 50bp, as expected, (3rd consecutive month & fastest rate hike cycle since 1994) – BUT cools forward guidance will raise rates in months ahead, but adds “not on a pre-set path” #AUDUSD falls from 0.7030, to 0.6950, AUDJPY -1.66%.

Biden announces US have killed head of Al-Qaeda, Zawahiri in Kabul drone strike.

• USDIndex weakens further to test under 105.00 now. YEN & CHF outperform again in Asian session.
• Equities – USA500 closed lower -11.66pts (-0.28%) (4118), US500FUTS at 4100 now.  4175 remains next key resistance 
• Yields 10-year yield dived into close 2.60%, down again to 2.54% now. 
• Oil – tanked to $93.00 from $101.80 highs on Friday. 
• Gold – spiked to $1780 before cooling to $1773 now. Support at $1770 & $1766.
• Bitcoin also weaker USD to trade at $22.8K now, from as high as $24.4K. 
• FX Markets – EURUSD rallied to test 1.0300 zone, USDJPY dived under 131.00 to 130.40 lows. Cable holds over 1.2200 and tests key 1.2260 resistance area.   

Overnight – AUD Building Approvals better than expected (-0.7% vs. -5.3%), Commodity prices lower (14.1% vs. 24.3%) UK House inflation a tick lower at 0.1% m/m. 

Today – Canadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Evans & Mester. Earnings BP (out – EPS exceed by +26%), CAT, UBER, AirBnB, AMD, PayPal, Starbucks, Gilead, Marriott.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.66%). Dovish RBA and Taiwan tensions hit the key most risk sensitive pair. Collapses from 92.500 to 90.75 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 22.5, OS & falling,  H1 ATR 0.294, Daily ATR 1.198.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 1508'4Pivot: 1400'4Support:Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and broken out of the descending trendline , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1438'6 where the pullback support and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 1508'4 where the swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1400'4 where the pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:Since Russia and Ukraine are major exporter of agriculture goods, their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .

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Are we heading for a commercial property crash?

The pandemic has reduced the demand for office spaces and permanently changed the office environment. But John Stepek says rising interest rates are a bigger threat to commercial property right now.

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BTCUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 26097.86Pivot: 24267.52Support: 22482.7Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within a bullish channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price might rise to our pivot at 24267.52 where the pullback resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 26097.86 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 100% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 22482.7 where the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.

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Market Update – August 1

1st day of the month – Fears over slowing growth and expectations for moderation in Fed rate hikes overshadowed still hot inflation prints. 

USDIndex sinks again to 105.50, while against Yen extedned to 6-week lows, i.e. 131.96. US data out Friday showed stubbornly high inflation and wages growth. Corporate earnings have mostly beaten lowered forecasts. The China PMI reports that flagged risks to the overall outlook as the country’s zero-Covid policy continues to bite as they missed miserably. Hong Kong’s benchmark underperformed and lost -0.2%. US Stocks are steady . Nikkei and ASX gained 0.6% and 0.7%, GER40 and UK100 futures.

Overnight: China’s property developers in focus and Alibaba still weighed down after the US included the company in the delisting watchlist.Evegrande fails to deliver  a restructurong plan; Alibaba added to SEC List of Chinese Firms Facing Delisting, alogn with another 200 companies. German Retail Sales plunged -1.6% m/m in June –  flags ongoing cost pressures that coupled with the threat of energy rationing means recession risks are palpable now. HSBC posted a higher profitability target and bullish dividends outlook.

• USDIndex weakens & YEN outperforms.
• Equities – USA500 closed higher +48.8 pts (+1.21%) (4072), US500FUTS at 4105 now. Fed’s Kashkari affirmed the bank’s commitment to bring inflation down, which acted as a reminder that the Fed will continue to hike rates, even if the path of the tightening cycle may not be quite as aggressive as markets had feared at one point. 
• Yields 10-year Treasury rate lifted 1.6 bp to 2.665. (after sliding to the lowest since early April at 2.618% at the end of last week)
• Oil – drifted back to 97.60, as  OPEC+ meeting is on Thusday and expected to produced an increase in supply, even if only minor.
• Gold – steady at 2-week highs at  $1764.
• Bitcoin at 23,170.
• FX Markets – Yen remains the main beneficiary of the correction in haven flows into the USD and USDJPY slipped to 131.96. The USDCHF also caught a bid,i.e. 0.9500 and Sterling rose against both USD and EUR – with GBPUSD now at 1.2196, while EURUSD is lingering at 1.0240.

Today – UK, Australian central banks expected to hike this week, while is NFP week as well.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.79%). Broke 132.00 low. 1Hour-MAs flattened, but MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI sideways 34.50. H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 1.354.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, August 1, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 1, 2022 Overnight Headlines Fed’s Kashkari: Fed Committed To Slowing Inflation To 2% Goal BoE Set To Consider Biggest Rate Rise For More Than 25 Years Biden’s Covid ‘Rebound’ Case Keeps Him At White House Again House Speaker Pelosi Begins Asia Tour, No Mention Of Taiwan Midterm Misery For Biden As Vital Gauge Signals 30-Seat Loss China’s Rebound Remains Fragile As Factories, Property Slump China July Home Sales Plunge, Mortgage Revolt Deters Buyers Japan's Factory Activity Growth Slows As New Orders Contract Australia’s Aggressive Policy Tightening To Weigh On Economy Goldman Signals 25% Australia Recession Odds, 30-35% In NZ UK’s Sunak Vows 20% Cut To Income Tax Within Seven Years Lufthansa Faces More Turmoil As Pilots Back Possible StrikesThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are generally up this morning. However, US equity futures are down following hawkish comments from some US Federal Reserve policymakers that highlighted their concerns about ongoing inflationary pressures. Official China PMI data for manufacturing and non-manufacturing both slipped in July and the manufacturing fell back below the key 50-contraction level. China’s unofficial Caixin PMI for manufacturing also declined by more than expected. This morning’s Eurozone and UK July manufacturing PMIs are final estimates, although we will get the first readings for Italy and Spain. The final PMIs are expected to confirm earlier ‘flash’ estimates. The Eurozone survey was particularly weak with the composite index dropping to 49.4, the first sub-50 reading since early 2021, reflecting a contraction in manufacturing and fading pent-up demand for services. In the UK, the composite PMI held above the 50-mark but softened to 52.8, a seventeen-month low, and the future output index pointed to further losses of momentum in the coming twelve months. Inflationary pressures remained elevated, but the price indices hinted at near-term peaks. A key parallel across both the Eurozone and UK ‘flash’ surveys for July was the further moderation in new manufacturing orders, which were down for a second- and third-consecutive month in the UK and Eurozone, respectively. On a more positive note, falls in both the composite input cost and prices charged indices pointed to some cooling in inflationary pressures across both economies. In the US, alongside the ‘final’ reading of the July manufacturing PMI report, the more widely watched manufacturing ISM survey will be released. In keeping with the slippage seen in the former, the latter is expected to record a decline in the headline index, from 53.0 to 52.5, which would be the weakest since June 2020. Ahead of Thursday’s policy announcement from the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its latest policy update early tomorrow morning. Expectations are centred on the RBA hiking interest rates by 50bp for the third successive meeting. At one-point markets were expecting a 75bp rise but this was cut after inflation picked up by less than expected in Q2. Nevertheless, the larger move cannot be ruled out.CFTC Data IMM: USD long position drops on CAD and GBP buying; JPY largest net short USD spec long position pared in Jul 20-26 period $IDX +0.58% EUR$ -1.35% in period, specs +1,161 contracts now short 41,584 Yen specs -2,256 contract in yen strength, short grows to 61,481 contracts GBP specs +3,260 contracts now -53,990; GBP +0.41% in period pre-Aug 4 MPC CAD specs +9,102 contracts, AUD specs -4,237 BTC specs +385 contracts now short 121 On net USD basis JPY short pulls slightly ahead of EUR short Yen specs long $5.6bn, EUR long $5.3bn, GBP in 3rd place specs long $4.1bn Source: Reuters DataFX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0100 (647M), 1.0125 (496M), 1.0200 (698M), 1.0250 (650M) EUR/USD: 1.0275 (411M), 1.0300 (958M). GBP/USD: 1.2125 (617M) EUR/GBP: 0.8325 (482M), 0.8535 (352M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Quiet start after small gain on Friday EUR/USD eked out a 0.29% gain Friday after a whippy session Risk rally and lower US yields helped to underpin EUR/USD EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode and isn't trending in short-term Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 UK's Truss gets the backing of several senior MPs for PM Truss looks set to be the next UK PM - markets will likely be cautious CBI survey expects zero UK growth for the next 3 months Surging UK cost of living to hit domestic spending in the third quarter Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.2090 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 134 USD/JPY plunge late last week persists into the new month Plenty JPY shorts forced to cover on move down from 137.45 on July 27 Japanese importer demand again eyed in Tokyo on big move down Some option expiries in area - 132.75-85 $400 mln, 133.00 $300 mln Also above 132.50 $283 mln, 134.00 $393 mln, nothing massive in area Eyes still on US yields, short-end saw bounce Friday, long-end easier Newly minted bears target a test of 130 Offers seen at 134 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 AUD/USD recovers from China data disappointment, rising Sino-U.S. tensions China's factory activity contracts unexpectedly in July as COVID flares up July official services PMI grows at slower pace U.S.-China tensions weigh as Pelosi begins Asia tour Tempering of aggressive Fed rate hikes expectations may limit downside RBA meeting Tuesday in focus, 50bps rate hike widely expected Offer at .70 being eroded as price is accepted above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6950/40 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K Range bound around the 23,300 level and Ethereum also eked mild gains but failed to hold above 1,700 Southeast Asia-focused crypto exchange Zipmex filed for bankruptcy protection Crypto assets need new rights in law, UK legal body says Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k will be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-august-1-2022"
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Bitcoin is on the Rise

Bitcoin has already tested the flag. The asset currently remains at the broken level of 23,500. Bitcoin is likely to hit the level of 25,500 next.Oil hasn’t managed to form the reversal pattern, pulling back from the resistance level of 107.50. The asset has dropped to the level of 100. Oil is likely to pull back from the psychological resistance at the level of 100 and head north.The currency pair EUR/USD has tested the level of 1.0000. The asset is heading north, gradually approaching the level of 1.0400. This level serves as a crossing point for the middle point of the range and downtrend, away from which the currency pair might potentially pull and drop. So, let’s wait and see what is about to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-on-the-rise-01-08-2022"
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Starbucks: FR 50.0% in focus ahead of Earnings Release

The world’s largest coffeehouse chain committed to being the premier roaster and retailer of specialty coffee – Starbucks – is scheduled to report its Q3 2022 financial results this Tuesday (2^nd August), after market close.

Fig.1: Reported Sales and EPS versus Analyst Forecast for Starbucks.

Source： money.cnn

In the previous quarter, Starbucks sales aligned with consensus estimates at $7.6B, however earnings per share (EPS) underperformed at only $0.59, below analysts expectation by nearly -30%. Both sales and EPS were down -6.17% and -18.06% respectively compared to those in Q1 2022. The disappointing results were mainly weighed down by an international shrinkage in sales especially in China, the company’s second-largest market, in which a resurgence of the coronavirus and new lockdowns caused a temporary closing of stores.

The catastrophe may not end very soon. Recently reimposed Covid restrictions by the Chinese government in pursuit of its ‘zero Covid’ policy have presented more challenges for hospitality businesses including Starbucks. The management’s aim to reach 6,000 stores (currently over 5,400) in China by the end of this year is now in doubt due to various uncertainties.  Comparatively, US stores performed much better, with sales +12% versus international comparable store sales at -8%. Active membership of the Starbucks loyalty program in the US also reported an increase of 17% to 26.7 million customers in the second quarter.

Consensus estimates towards sales in Q3 remains positive, at $8.1B, up 6.58% (q/q) and 8% (y/y), while EPS is expected to hit $0.77, up over 30% from the previous quarter, but slightly down -23.77% from the same quarter last year. Besides the existing unfavorable macroeconomic factors (Fed rate hike, recession risk, supply chain issues, competitors, etc), recent issues related to safety concerns which have led to closure of 16 stores in the US may serve as a headwind for the coffee conglomerate in the near future. The management responded to the issue earlier by stating a few measures to implement, including doubling the hours of training in conflict de-escalation (disruptive patrons (usually those who are homeless and/or suffering from mental health issues), drugs abuse in the bathrooms, smashed windows), evaluation of modifying operations to align with new safety goals, implementation of the Starbucks Outreach Worker Program to embed social workers in stores with high level challenges, etc.

Technical Analysis: 

The #Starbucks share price managed to lift off its recent lows ($68.37), with gains nearly 24%.  FR 50.0% (extended from 15^th March 2020 lows to 18^th July 2021 highs) at $88.16, or median estimates of analysts at $89 serve as the nearest resistance to watch. Breaking above these levels may bring the bulls towards testing the next resistance at $97.16, the 100-Weekly SMA, and $108.30. Otherwise, $79.15 serves as the nearest support. A close below this level may encourage more downward pressures, into testing the next support at $66.33 and psychological level at $60. OsMA value: 2.3858; RSI: 48.53; Stochastics: above 80 (overbought).

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Larince Zhang

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /498579/
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Three “billionaire” stocks to give your portfolio a boost

Samed Bouaynaya of the Global Billionaires Fund picks three diverse global stocks that are overseen and guided by billionaire owners.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605155/how-billionaires-will-give-your-portfolio-a-boost
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