BTCUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 24208.23Pivot: 22483.11 Support: 20703.19Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within a bullish channel and expected to bounce from the stochastic support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 22483.11 where the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are to the 1st resistance at 24208.23 where the pullback resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to 1st support at 20703.19 where the swing low support and 100% fibonacci projection are.

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Will HSBC be torn apart?

Banking giant HSBC has pleased the market with a new dividend policy. But its top shareholder thinks it should be split in two. Matthew Partridge reports.

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Market Update – August 4 – BOE Day!

USDIndex firmed to 106.82 on the Fed outlook and solid data before sliding to 106.38 at the close. Yields spiked, on top of the heavy losses Tuesday (10yr 2.51%), then yields slipped again  on strong factory orders data, with an eye on non-farm payrolls set to be released on Friday which would partly determine the magnitude of Fed’s tightening. (10yr 2.7191%. US Stock supported by good earnings news, and gains accelerated after solid data, shrugging off the jump in bond yields as the Fed funds futures market repriced for a 50-50 potential for a 75 bp September rate hike. European FUTS also higher. Oil below $91, Gold holds at $1770.

Overnight: US ISM-NMI services index rise to 56.7 from a 2-year low, US factory orders beat estimates climbed 2.0%. The rise joins big declines for the ISM, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed and Philly Fed, but gains for the Richmond Fed and Empire State, to leave an 8-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust November peaks. Surging interest rates and a flattening in real household spending as prices rise are aggravating the downtrend, though sentiment also faces support as businesses continue to restock.

• USDIndex is holding above 106 at currently 106.30.
• Equities – USA30 rose 1.29% (32.74K), USA500 rallied to 1.59% (4.15K) and USA100 surged 2.59%.
• Yields 10-year lifted 2.5 bp to 2.73% and rates are also higher in Japan and Australia. The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.863% though after another contraction in German manufacturing orders flagged recession risks for the region. 
• Oil – dips to at $90.35. OPEC+ dissapointed and agreed to a “very small increase” in September output of 100k barrels per day – the smallest ouput increase in its history. 
• Gold – supprted by pullback in yields at $1770.
• FX Markets – EURUSD dip to looks weak at 1.0163 and Cable is at 1.2147. USDJPY has lifted to 134.20 as recent haven flows into the yen recede. AUD and NZD regained some ground as global risk sentiment improved a little and a record Australian trade surplus underlined the natural inflows supporting the currency.

Today – The BoE expected to hike by 50 bp but with a stress on the data dependency of further tightening moves. Front loading the tightening cycle also may also make sense in light of the leadership contest, with Liz Truss, the favorite to succeed Johnson mulling a shake up of the BoE. Investors are also waiting for details on the BoE’s plans for gilt sales. Governor Bailey previously indicated that the balance sheet will shrink at a pace of GBP 50-100 bln in the first year – including redemptions.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.99%) reverted week’s losses and it is currently at 84.47. MAs alighed higher, MACD lines rising, RSI 76. H1 ATR 0.202, Daily ATR 0.993.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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GBPAUD Trades Lower, Ahead of BOE Policy Announcement

The Australian Dollar’s weekly performance has yet to show any meaningful change against the British Pound, following the latest RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday. Governor Philip Lowe said in his August monetary policy statement that the RBA places a high priority on safeguarding the domestic economy and will bring inflation back to its 2-3% target. The RBA said on Tuesday that it still expects to raise rates further over the next few months, but they will however be cautious when doing so.

Meanwhile, there are hints at the possibility of a 50bp hike at the BoE meeting today (Thursday). In the current business climate with high inflation and the central banks aggressively raising interest rates, a 50bp hike is not seen as a big number anymore. Ironically, the BOE hasn’t raised interest rates by 50bp since 1995, so such a policy could be significant, despite what the market expects. If this is what the BOE does, it will bring interest rates to 1.75%, still well below the rates of the Fed and many other major central banks.

The BOE is under heavy pressure to ease the UK’s cost of living crisis, with inflation rising to 9.4% in June, after a 9.1% rise in May. Inflation expectations are also rising, which will make it harder for the BOE to contain inflation. The risk of faster tightening could send the UK economy, which is already showing signs of slowing down, to the brink of recession and worsen sentiment towards Sterling.

GBPAUD will get support, if the BoE takes a hawkish step, although it is still a debate whether the UK economic data has met the BoE criteria for this action. The risk could be from an unchanged gain of 25bp, which would put more pressure on Sterling.  However, the AUD is also likely to be sensitive to the implications of the RBA’s latest economic forecast, due for release on Friday.

Technical Overview

In the longer term, the GBPAUD pair still maintains a bearish bias, as can be seen from the asset price which is still below the 26-week exponential moving average. A move to the downside remains within the FE61.8% projection at 1.7100 (from a pullback to 2.0844 – 1.7414 and 1.9209 peaks), although at the moment, the cross is still in consolidation mode between 1.7173 – 1.7886. The range of this range will determine the direction of the next trend, if there is a break on both sides. A downside break would only confirm, that the bearish trend is far from over and further declines will take place for the 1.7000 psychological price level and further down. Meanwhile a break to the upside would record 1.7886 as a short term bottoming and the bias would be to the upside for the 1.8125 support which would become resistance.

GBPAUD, H8

GBPAUD,H8 – In Wednesday’s trading, the cross was seen losing its rally momentum below the 76.8%FR level to register a high of 1.7651. The decline partially erased the recovery of the previous 2 days. Bias is temporarily neutral; a move above would 1.7651 open a chance to test 1.7886 and conversely a break of 1.7402 would again bring the bias to the downside for 1.7173.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, August 4, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 4, 2022 Overnight Headlines Bank Of England On Precipice Of Largest Rate Hike Since 1995 Fed’s Kashkari: Very Unlikely Will Cut Interest Rates Next Year Taiwan Braces For Impact From China Military Post Pelosi Trip White House Lobbies Dems Against Aims Deepen Taiwan Ties China Locks Down Part Of Tropical Tourist Hub, Covid Spreads Sinema Seeks Private Equity Breaks Hold, Curb Corporate Tax Eyeing Russia, US Senate Backs Finland, Sweden Joining Nato Ukraine Pres Seeks Direct Talks With Xi Amid War With Russia Iran, US Set To Resume Talks In New Bid To Save Nuclear Deal Truss To Look At Changing Bank Of England Inflation Mandates Brazil Hikes By 50Bps To 13.75%, Signal Another Hike Possible Walmart Slashes 200 Corporate Jobs As Costs, Inventory WeighThe Day Ahead Most Asian equity markets are up this morning seemingly lifted by optimism regarding profit reports and possibly buoyed by yesterday’s rise in US equities. The oil price has moved sharply lower overnight as reports of rising inventory levels in the US spark concerns that demand for oil is slowing. Several Federal Reserve speakers yesterday stressed that lowering inflation remained the US central bank’s number one priority and that interest rates were likely to move higher. Today’s policy update from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to be the key event of the week for UK markets. A sixth successive increase in Bank Rate is widely expected, but there is some uncertainty over its size. Our base case forecast is for another 25 basis point rise, but there is a strong chance that the MPC will deliver a larger increase of 50bp and markets appear to be almost fully discounting such an outcome. There were hints of this at the time of the last update in June and since then comments from some BoE policymakers, including BoE Governor Bailey confirmed it as a possibility. Economic data since the June update have actually been mixed. Nevertheless, the possibility of at least a small majority of MPC members supporting a larger hike is high. However, if they do so they will probably describe it as front-loading tightening rather than a sign that rates need to rise by much more than previously indicated. In addition to the policy rate announcement, expect the BoE’s updated forecasts to again highlight that market-based measures of interest rate expectations, which currently see Bank Rate peaking around 2.75-3.00%, are excessive. Notably, while the BoE will probably again lift its forecast for the near-term peak in inflation, to around 12% (in October), expect their medium-term projection based up on the market-implied interest rate path to still show inflation moving below 2%, and potentially by more than shown in the forecasts from May. Meanwhile, the BoE’s GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are likely to be downgraded, not least due to the more persistent hit to households’ spending power from higher inflation. Finally, the MPC will also provide an update on its strategy for ‘active’ gilt sales. It seems likely that a vote to commence such sales may take place at the September MPC meeting, which would pave the way for them to potentially begin in October. Today the MPC may confirm timings and give some indication of the intended pace of selling, at least for the near term.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0100 (1.22B), 1.0150 (2.40B), 1.0200-05 (1.46B), 1.0215 (622M) EUR/USD: 1.0225-30 (1.06B), 1.0295-1.0300 (1.31B). EUR/JPY: 134.00 (403M) USD/JPY: 133.00 (1.41B), 134.80-85 (1.08B), 135.00-05 (2.14B) EUR/GBP:0.8400-05 (370M), 0.8415 (300M), 0.8560 (350M) USD/CHF: 0.9780 (500M). USD/CAD: 1.2750 (745M), 1.2900 (540M) AUD/USD: 0.6975 (354M), 0.7000 (584M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Choppy range trading continues – large 1.0150 strikes 1.0150 2.396 BLN and 1.0200/15 2.218 BLN are today's close strikes Off 0.1% after closing a touch firmer in choppy offshore markets EUR/USD has been in a range since mid July, as the holiday season kicks in Pair needs a trigger to spark a move - upcoming NFP data a potential catalyst Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 Softer as market awaits 50pt BoE hike -0.1% early with the USD a touch firmer after closing off 0.1% Bank of England widely expected to deliver a 50pt hike Raging inflation, vulnerable sterling, aggressive Fed, ECB suggest 50pt Stalling economy could add a note of caution in BoE statement and speech Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.2090 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 134 Looks to be about options today, below and above USD/JPY off from 134.14 earlier this morning to 133.43 before bouncing Massive option expiries today from 134.25 look to have played a part Some bounce from the EBS low, well ahead of massive expiries at 133.00 Total $960 mln in expiries between 134.25-45, $1.1 bln 134.80-85, more above 133.00 sees $1.4 bln in expiries today, also 134.00-05 total $481 mln Tomorrow to see $1.7 bln in expiries at 134.00 strike, 133.25-30 $532 mln Bears target a test of 130 Offers seen at 135.10 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Higher as Wall Street rallies US yields ease AUD/USD opens +0.46% and was best performing major currency Wednesday Strong Wall Street gains and fall in US 10-year yield helped to underpin AUD up on all crosses despite fall in key commodities Offer at .70 being eroded as price is accepted above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC chopping around 23k Risk-on mood in Asia buoys crypto, but Nasdaq futures -0.2% Increased regulation may accelerate crypto maturity Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k would be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearish

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Bitcoin and Gold are on the Rise

Bitcoin has formed the flag and broke the trendline. Now, the asset is trying to break the level of 23500. Bitcoin is on the rise and might hit the level of 25500 soon.Gold has pulled from the downtrend and dropped. The asset is likely to pull back from the broken monthly trend denoted by the thick blue line on the chart and face resistance at the level of 1800.The currency pair EUR/USD broke the local uptrend resembling a bearish flag.Currently, the asset’s price is trying to remain behind the broken pattern and might jump soon. So, let’s wait and see what is about to happen next.

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John Wood Group: needs polish, but has plenty of potential

Oilfield engineer John Wood’s share price has underperformed, its prospects are solid and it looks too cheap

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China’s property downturn deepens

Chinese house prices have fallen for ten months in a row, made worse by a residential “mortgage strike”.

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Enjoy the bear market rally while it lasts

Investors seem to think that a weaker US economy will cool inflation and see the Fed relent on interest rate rises. But that optimism may be misplaced, with July’s stockmarket gains looking very much like a bear-market rally.

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Britain’s resilient blue chips – a refuge in the inflationary storm

The UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 index has been the best-performing major stockmarket index so far this year.

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Daily Market Outlook, August 3, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 3, 2022 Overnight Headlines White House Aim To Calm Tensions Over Pelosi Taiwan Visit Pelosi Vows US Won’t Abandon Taiwan In Faces Of Pressure Fed’s Bullard: Can Slow Inflation Without Sparking Recession Fed's Mester: More Work To Do As Inflation Not Yet Peaked China Imposes Taiwan Economic Curbs With Sand, Fruit Ban China Services Activity Expand, Quickest Pace In 15 Months Chinese Hub Yiwu Introduce Covid Restrictions, Locks Down US Senate Votes Today On Finland, Sweden Nato Accession Candidate Truss Extends Lead Over Sunak In Leadership Bid UK Survey Report Now In Recession, Outlook For Stagflation OPEC+ Watchers Sceptical Biden’s Call For Oil To Be Heeded Samsung, SK Hynix Turn China Exposure Following Chips ActThe Day Ahead Most Asian equity markets are up this morning. That may in part reflect relief that while the Chinese authorities have criticised the visit by US Congressional leader Pelosi to Taiwan they have not yet announced any major retaliatory actions. Indeed, reports suggest that the US and Chinese Presidents may still meet in person near term. In contrast to the weak outturns for other Chinese PMI data in July the services PMI unexpectedly rose to its highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, Australian retail sales rose by more than expected in Q2. OPEC meets today but reports suggest that it is unlikely to significantly boost oil supply targets given the fall in the price over the past month. Today’s data calendar is dominated by July PMI updates for the services sector. However, in the case of the UK and the Eurozone these are second readings and they are not expected to be revised significantly from their respective initial outturns. Those first estimates for July showed the UK services activity index at a 17-month low (53.3), although more positively it still held above the 50 level that signals expansion and some firms said they expected the slowdown to be short lived. There were also some signs of inflationary pressures easing, but wage pressures remained “intense”. The initial July reading for the Eurozone services activity index held only just above the 50 level, as it recorded a 15-month low (50.6). The main drag was a fall in activity in Germany. Input cost inflation slipped to a five-month low but wage pressures still seemed to be elevated. Also, out in the Eurozone today is June retail sales. Already released data for German sales, which showed a sharp monthly decline, points to possible downside risks compared to a consensus forecast of no growth. The US ISM services index for July is new data. Markets will be looking for signs of faltering activity and easing inflationary pressures to justify the recent sharp fall in Treasury bond yields. After the input price reading in the ISM manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in almost two years there is some expectation that the services measure may also slip sharply. Factory orders for June will provide a further indication of output trends with already released data for durable goods orders pointing to a sizeable rise. Three Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak today. They are likely to repeat the rhetoric from other US central bank officials this week, that inflation remains their number one concern and so further interest rate hikes remain on the cards.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0100 (695M), 1.0150 (687M), 1.0195/1.0200 (1.86B), 1.0250 (578M) USD/JPY: 131.25 (530M), 131.50 (495M), 132.50 (550M) EUR/JPY: 135.85 (325M), 136.00 (340M). AUD/USD: 0.7150 (1.01B) USD/CHF: 0.9445 (350M), 0.9550 (401M). EUR/CHF: 0.9700 (520M), 0.9820 (1.05)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Hawkish Fed speak sent US yields higher Mood shifted when US 10-year yield eased to below 2.71% now 2.76% EUR/USD back to moving on swings in US Treasury yields Key US data this week likely to dictate moves in bonds and FX Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 Modest risk on as China response to Taiwan mostly verbal so far NIESR warns millions will join breadline in recession-hit UK UK July final service PMI due at 0830 GMT BoE rate decision Thursday; 50 bps hike is consensus forecast Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.2090 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 134 Market thin however, break of range not unthinkable on fresh flows Big, one-off flows seen responsible for recent volatility Japanese importers back in this morning, good buys into Tokyo fix Talk of good, one-off sale from Japan player yesterday Tokyo talk that the sales actually came from a Chicago hedge fund Also talk Japanese long US assets bought back hedges on hold above 130.00 Bears target a test of 130 Offers seen at 134 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Recovers all of early losses as US yields off highs AUD/USD is back above 0.6920 after trading down to 0.6886 earlier USD was bid early and AUD/USD stops below 0.6900 became an easy target With RBA decision out of the way, AUD/USD will be driven by external factors Offer at .70 being eroded as price is accepted above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC chopping around 23k Michael Saylor steps down as MicroStrategy CEO Saylor will assume the role of an executive chairman, focusing more on the company's Bitcoin acquisition strategy and other crypto-related initiatives Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k would be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearish

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Market Update – August 3 – Market “pushed and pulled”

The market was pushed and pulled by geopolitical risks and uncertainties, earnings ups and downs, Fed tightening angst and recession risks.

USDIndex bounce to 106.38 currently steady at 106, Yields which spiked sharply higher with selling persisting into the close (10yr 2.746% having challenged 2.51% overnight) dragged by hawkish Fedspeak and the safe arrival of Pelosi. The safe-haven Yen continued its slide. US Stocks ended in the red. Asian markets mixed as China has its warheads trained on Taiwan but on the flipside markets try to weigh growth risks and the Fed outlook (Hang Seng & Nikkei 0.5%, CSI 300  -0.2%). European FUTS also lower. (-0.6%).  Oil at $94, Gold holds over $1750  and BTC down under $23k.

Fed’s Mester said below trend growth is not a bad outcome, and it is necessary to get inflation under control. Fed President Daly said the FOMC is is likely to raise rates and keep them high for a while, in her comments in a LinkedIn interview – ‘Nowhere Near’ Finished With Inflation Fight.

Data: A surprisingly strong bounce in German exports, left the German trade balance with a solid surplus.  China Services PMI readings also looked pretty strong – acceleration in activity. Swiss CPI inflation held steady at 3.4% y/y.

• USDIndex managed to climb back over 106.000 but it was weaker overnight, holding the 105.000 handle for a third straight day. YEN has given up some of its haven bid & EUR and GBP have also slumped.
• Equities – USA30 tumbling -1.23% (32.4K), the USA500 off -0.67% (4.1K) and the USA100 -0.16% lower (below 13K).
• Yields 10-year has already corrected -3.5 bp at 2.71% today and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.8 bp at 0.79%.
• Oil – steady at $94.00 from $96.30 ahead of the OPEC+. It is likely to keep output unchanged in September, or raise it slightly.
• Gold – rose in the morning to$1768 after a  sharp decline yesterday.
• Bitcoin directionless, at 22.98K.
• FX Markets – EURUSD dip to 1.0155 zone, USDJPY is at 133.18, as haven flows into the yen have recede. Cable turns below over 1.2200 again.

Today – OPEC+ meeting, EU Retail Sales and US ISM Services . Earnings: CVS Health, Booking Holdings, Moderna, Regeneron etc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR (-0.70%) posted an evening start pattern this morning at 16.70. MAs flattened, MACD lines held negative , RSI 53, OS & falling,  H4 ATR 0.12128, Daily ATR 0.26199.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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US30USD, H4 | Potential Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ReversalKey Levels:Resistance: 33475.75Pivot: 32512.78Support: 31874.79Preferred Case:On the H4, with price breaking out of an ascending trendline and reversing off the stochastic resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 32512.78 where the pullback support is to the 1st support at 31874.79 where the pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 33475.75 where the swing high resistance and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are.

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Should you buy an annuity as rates start to rise?

Pensioners who want to use their retirement savings to buy an annuity for a guaranteed yearly income can now earn more as interest-rates rise.

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