S&P Midcap 400 Futures (EMD1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 2564.0Pivot: 2494.8Support: 2460.9Preferred Case:On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 2494.8 where the pullback resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 2564.0 where the swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 2460.9 where the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are.Fundamentals:Due to fresh worries of global growth and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan capital, Taipei, we have a bearish view on the Midcap 400 index. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-midcap-400-futures-emd1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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Bitcoin CME Futures (BTC1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 24615Pivot: 23500 Support: 22365Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving along an ascending trendline and bouncing from the stochastic support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivotat 23500 where the overlap resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 24615 where the swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 22365 where the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci projection , 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.Fundamentals:Cryptocurrency markets on Thursday saw volatility , after experiencing fluctuations during the tensions between China and Taiwan on Tuesday and Wednesday. Major indexes like the S&P 500 , Dow Jones, and NYSE have shed a few percentages today, while the global cryptocurrency market capitalization lost 2.5% in 24 hours, dropping to just above the $1.1 trillion range. Precious metals, on the other hand, traded higher as U.S. president Joe Biden’s administration declared the Monkeypox virus a public health emergency in the United States.

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COFFEE C Futures (KC1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 236. 40 Pivot: 220.00 Support: 207.60Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and the MACD histogram is above zero, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 220.00 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 236. 40 where the swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 207.60 where the swing low support is.Fundamentals:No key news

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Zhao Weiguo: China’s No. 1 chip tycoon vanishes

Zhao Weiguo rode a decades-long boom in China pursuing Beijing’s core industrial policy of semiconductor self-sufficiency. Then he fell foul of Xi Jinping.

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A fond farewell to a MoneyWeek legend

John Stepek, MoneyWeek’s executive editor, is leaving for fresh pastures. Dominic Frisby shares his thoughts.

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XAUUSD – Gold Price on NFP Day

XAUUSD, H1

As a safe haven asset, gold prices continued their gains for the third week to the highest level in four as the week kicked off with a contraction in US services PMI (and European manufacturing PMI), followed by a hike in Fed interest rates signaling concerns about a recession from Chairman Powell, and the issue of the latest tensions between the US and China.

The upward movement of gold prices yesterday was driven by the decline in US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield is now 2.68%, down from the week’s high seen on Wednesday of 2.84%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate hike yesterday sent a direct signal that the UK may enter a recession in the fourth quarter of this year, with October inflation forecasts of 13.3% (latest to 9.4% in June).

Technical View:

A strong move closer to yesterday’s $1800.00 level has now resulted in a price retracement with a bullish flag continuation pattern. If the price manages to break through yesterday’s high zone at $1795.00, the next major resistance will be at the psychological $1800.00 figure near the 61.8% Fibo level in the Day timeframe, and the next resistance will be at the high zone seen at the beginning of July at $1812.00. There will be support at $1786.00 and $1773.00.

It is inevitable that today’s US non-farm payroll (NFP) report for July will distort the technical view. NFP is expected to increase by 250k, less than the previous month’s 372k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.6%, a figure seen since March.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Chayut Vachirathanakit

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, August 5, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 5, 2022 Overnight Headlines US July Job Growth Set To Be Robust, But Could Slow Ahead China Missiles Likely Fired Over Taiwan, Increasing Tensions Fed’s Mester Reiterates Resolve To Curb Inflation With Hikes Vital US Senator Sinema Agrees To $430Bln Drug, Energy Bill Dems Drop Carried Interest Change, Adds Stock Buyback Tax Iran Nuclear Talks Resume, Both Sides Play Down Prospects UN Sees North Korea Tests Explosive Devices At Nuclear Site RBA Sees Faster Inflation, Wages As Signals More Rate Hikes Truss Says UK Recession Avoidable Ahead Of Economic Storm German Cabinet Agrees To Consumer Gas Levy From October Tesla Holders Agree To 3-To-1 Stock Split At Shareholder Meet Lufthansa Ground Staff Agree Pay Deal In Third Round Of TalksThe Day Ahead Stocks across the Asia Pacific are trading higher on the day, with most major exchanges in the region ending, or set to end, the week up. More broadly, global equities are poised for a third weekly advance, which would take them to a near two-month high from the recent lows, supported by resilient corporate earnings figures, particularly in the US. Nevertheless, the flare up in tensions between China and Taiwan continues to induce some investor caution. The US labour market report is always seen as a key bellwether of economic conditions. However, against the background of recent market moves, both today’s release for July, and the August report will be particularly important. In his press conference following the US central bank’s latest decision to raise interest rates, Fed Chair Powell described the labour market as still strong and played down the significance of recent rises in jobless claims. On that basis, any sign of weakness in next Friday’s labour market report will lend support to the bond market rally, while a solid report may question the extent of the recent fall in interest rate expectations. Expect employment growth to have slowed again but still be sufficiently strong to be more consistent with the latter view. Also of keen interest will be wage growth. There have been hints in the last couple of reports that this has peaked but an alternative indicator, the employment cost index, suggested that in Q2 growth was still above a level that the Fed is likely to feel comfortable with. Canada’s July labour market report, which is also out today, is potentially of equal significance for monetary policy north of the border. Like the Fed the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 75 basis points at its last meeting and pointed to the likelihood of further rises. So, today’s report, which is the only one before the BoC’s next policy update on 7th September, will be seen as an important gauge of domestic inflationary pressures. There are no major data releases due from the Eurozone or UK today, although the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak at a regional agents’ event. Following yesterday’s decision to step up the pace of monetary policy tightening, with the BoE deciding to raise Bank Rate by half a percentage point, markets will be watching today’s event for clues over whether the next meeting on September 15th could see a similar move.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0100 (871M), 1.0200 (2.06B), 1.0300-05 (1.74B) USD/JPY: 132.25 (822M), 132.50 (505M), 133.25-30 (822M), 134.00 (2.08B) USD/JPY: 135.00 (1.09B). GBP/USD: 1.1965 (664M), 1.2100 (590M) EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (1.48B), 0.8450 (750M) USD/CHF: 0.9400 (400M), 0.9600 (685M). EUR/CHF: 1.0100 (400M) USD/CAD: 1.2600 (1.06B), 1.2800 (1.58B), 1.2900 (1.08B), 1.3000 (538M) AUD/USD: 0.6800 (918M), 0.6900 (494M), 0.6950 (497M), 0.7200 (1.01B)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 EUR/USD steady ahead of US NFP Awaiting fresh catalysts, market capped pre-1.03 since July 19 Massive nearby option expiries to help contain action 1.0100-95 E2.3 bln, 1.0200 E2.3 bln, 1.0270-80 E431 mln, 1.0300-05 E1.7 bln Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is neutral/bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 Liz Truss, likely next UK PM to outline economic plans today Sterling entering a volatile period with a new PM and economic uncertainty BOE will be data and event driven, fuelling intraday volatility Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.2090 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 135 USD/JPY heavy but downside likely limited, Gotobi demand, US NFP later Bid to 133.30’s on Gotobi Tokyo fix demand Yield on US Treasuries steady into US NFP/jobs report Non-farm payrolls seen rising 250k, prev +372k Massive option expiries in area today, to help contain action into NFP 132.25-50 total $1.7 bln+, 133.15-30 $1 bln, 134.00 $2.1 bln Bears target a test of 130 Offers seen at 135.10 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Muted response to the realistic RBA's SOMP AUD remains flat on the day despite a sombre outlook in the RBA's SOMP Further RBA rate hikes are required, which will slow economic growth Peak inflation expected at 7.75%, but long term 2-3% expectations remain 2022 growth forecasts cut from 4.25% to 3.25%, 2023/4 at 1.75% Inflation fight a global issue, Australia in better shape than many places Offer at .70 being eroded as price is accepted above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC continues chopping around 23k Range resolution likely on US NFP read due later today; exp 250k Positive reading will boost risk-taking mood again Coinbase soars on crypto deal with BlackRock Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k would be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearish

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Market Update – August 5 – Slowdown clouds NFP

USDIndex dropped a handle and fell to 105.50 from an early high of 106.40. Yields dropping measurably even in the face of the BoE’s 50 bp rate hike and ongoing hawkish Fedspeak, projections of a recession in Q4 & downturn in US growth. Stocks closed mixed but held their profits, amid positive earnings reports and yields pullback. Coinbase surged $8.09, or 10%, to $88.90 after the cryptocurrency exchange announced a partnership with money manager BlackRock. Lucid Group fell 9.7%, to $18.56 after the electric-vehicle maker cut its forecast for car production. Eli Lilly lost 2.6% (revenue fell in the Q2). Alibaba’s rose $1.71, or 1.8% after earnigns.

Meta joined the crowd of issuers looking to get cash while the getting is still good. Apple helped kick off the week with its $5.5 bln 4-part deal. This is Facebook’s first trip to the market, coming with a $10 bln offering in four parts, including a $2.75 bln 5-year, a $3 bln 10-year, a $2.75 bln 30-year, and a $1.5 bln 40-year. This brought the week’s total to about $56 bln, nearly triple the week’s estimate and close to the $60 bln for the month. Along with Meta, other offerings today included HSBC’s $4.75 bln with a $2.25 bln 6NC5 and a $2.5 bln 11NC10. Also on tap ere an $800 mln 6NC5 from Citizens Bank, a $750 bln 10-year from Ashtead Capital, and a $2.5 bln 2-parter from Lloyds Banking Group.

• USDIndex is holding above 106 at currently 106.30.
• Equities – USA30 -0.26% in the red, USA500 steady at 4160 and USA100 0.41% in the green.
• Yields: The belly of the Treasury curve dove over 6 bps to 2.76% on the 5-year. The 2-year slid almost 5 bps to 3.016%, and the wi 10-year fell 4 bps to 2.655%.
• Oil – dipped to $87.53 (key weekly drop below 50 DMA). Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for buyers in Asia, which will make discounted Russian oil even more attractive, despite the pressure to sanction Moscow’s deliveries.
• Gold have steadily moved higher. Currently at $1794, which brings the $1830 into view.
• FX Markets – EURUSD is at 1.0227 and Cable is at 1.2150. USDJPY steady at 133.25.

Today – NFP and Canadian labor data. The risk for US payrolls is downward (est. at 260K), both because job growth has outpaced the GDP path into 2022, and GDP growth is slowing.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ETHUSD (+4.84%) retests week’s highs at 1680. MAs aligned higher, MACD turned positive but signal line holds below 0, RSI 60 and dropping. H1 ATR 19.92, Daily ATR 58.28.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Three stocks to provide income and growth in good times and bad

Professional investor Matthew Page of the Guinness Global Innovators fund picks three resilient stocks that should pay predictable dividends that grow throughout the economic cycle.

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The MoneyWeek Podcast: 17 years of change

As John Stepek leaves MoneyWeek after 17 years, he and Merryn look back on what’s changed in that time. From consensus politics to populism; financial crashes and the failure of independent central banking; and the one tax that the incoming prime minister should introduce.

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Invest in defence stocks as war goes hi-tech

The operational efficiency of defence equipment and cybersecurity is developing rapidly owing to the war in Ukraine, says Jonathan Compton. Here’s what this means for investors.

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Why do we use the weights and measures we do?

The UK uses a particularly quirky mix of imperial and metric measures, and the subject of which is best can provoke considerable ire. Here, Dominic Frisby explains how each system came about, and the benefits of both.

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Interest rates rise to 1.75% – the highest level since December 2008

The Bank of England has raised interest rates from 1.25% to 1.75%, and warns that the UK will fall into a recession this year.

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BoE hiked; US jobless claims add downside risk to NFP

BoE left the door open to further 50 bp steps. It also warned that inflation pressures have intensified and are expected to rise to just over 13% in 2022 and “to remain at very elevated levels throughout much of 2023, before falling to the 2% target two years ahead”. Additional 50 bp moves are not ruled out then. The statement also flagged that the MPC is “provisionally minded to commence gilt sales shortly after its September meeting”.

US initial jobless claims edged up 6k to 260k in the week ended July 30, holding elevated levels and above 200k since mid-May.  EGBs are rallying after shrugging off the BoE’s 50 bp rate hike and the renewed commitment to act “forcefully” on inflation risks if needed. Stock markets meanwhile are posting broad gains across Europe and the FTSE 100, which moved sideways going into the BoE announcement, is now up 0.4%, while the DAX has held on to a better than 1% gain.

 

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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