Why now is a good time to buy diamond miners

Demand for the gems is set to outstrip supply, making it a good time to buy miners, says David J. Stevenson.

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The best student bank accounts

As we approach the start of an academic year, Saloni Sardana rounds up the best student bank accounts.

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Better Than Expected China Inflation Hints US CPI Report may Deliver Bullish Surprise Today

US bonds remain under selling pressure ahead of the release of the US inflation report today. This makes it more difficult for yields to rise further in the event of a positive surprise, however, the near end of the curve may be more sensitive to the release, since the Fed, as we know, can only influence short-term market rates. In addition, inflation data may finally affect expectations regarding the Fed's decision to sell bonds from the balance sheet (quantitative tightening).The first half of the week proved to be trendless for the dollar, the US currency erased gains fueled by the strong unemployment report published last Friday. There will be a major event today in terms of implications for Fed policy that is likely to be the most important not only this week, but even this month. The US CPI is expected to indicate a weakening in headline inflation and an acceleration of core inflation above 6% YoY.Sustained high core inflation, which is more difficult to control via monetary tightening should be an argument in favor of the Fed's position, which says that much remains to be done to restore price stability. In addition, core inflation, in line with the forecast, should reinforce expectations that the Fed will raise rates by another 125 bps before the end of the year. If there is no significant acceleration above the forecast, which will be very unexpected, because preliminary data indicate a reversal in the price growth trend, then the impact of the report on the foreign exchange market will be limited to keeping the dollar within its current range (106-107 on DXY). There is still a little more than a month before the Fed meeting in September, and if volatility remains low, interest in carry trading will additionally provide moderate support to the dollar due to the fact that the supply of low-yield currencies such as EUR and JPY will increase.EURUSD continues to dangle near annual lows, and apart from an increase in expectations of easing of the Fed's tightening pace, there are no reliable fundamental grounds to hold a bullish view on the pair. Geopolitical risks and uncertainty in the EU's energy security continue to be a source of significant premium in the common currency. Since there are no reports on the EU economy today, the movement in the pair will most likely be tied to the release of the CPI. The decrease in potential volatility in currency options suggests that the market has no desire to test lower levels (1.00-1.01). At the same time, technical analysis indicates a gradual increase in pressure from buyers after the main rebound wave, which increases the chances of an upward breakout:China’s June decline in inflation, both manufacturing and consumer, increases the chances of seeing a favorable outcome for the markets with the US CPI release today. Today's report on China showed that consumer inflation was 2.7% against the forecast of 2.9%, manufacturing inflation - 4.2% against the forecast of 4.8% in July.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/better-than-expected-china-inflation-hints-us-cpi-report-may-deliver-bullish-surprise-today"
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MICRO BITCOIN FUTURES (MBT1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 24315Pivot: 22430Support: 20705Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within a bullish channel and expected to bounce off the stochastic support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 22430 where the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are to the 1st resistance at 24315 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to 1st support at 20705 where the swing low support, -61.8% fibonacci expansion and 100% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:As investors are looking to reduce risk ahead of the CPI report, we have a bearish view on Bitcoin . We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-bitcoin-futures-mbt1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise10"
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DAX INDEX Futures (FDAX1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 13802Pivot: 13452Support: 13013Preferred Case:On the H4, with price breaking the ascending channel and MACD histograms are moving below zero, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from our pivot at 13452 where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 13013 where the overlap support and 50% fibonacci retracement are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 13802 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.Fundamentals:USD CPI m/m will release today, the potential tighten monetary policy may lead to European stock markets edged down.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dax-index-futures-fdax1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop"
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S&P Midcap 400 Futures (EMD1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 2564.0Pivot: 2493.6Support: 2460.9Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within an ascending channel and bouncing off the ichimoku support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 2493.6 where the pullback support is to the 1st resistance at 2564.0 where the swing high resistance is.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to 1st support at 2460.9 where the pullback support, 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-midcap-400-futures-emd1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise10"
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Daily Market Outlook, August 10, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 10, 2022 Overnight Headlines Consensus Expects US Inflation To Have Eased Slightly In July Fed's Bullard Wants Rates At 4% By December US Dollar Trades Solidly In Calm Before US CPI Storm Biden Signs CHIPS Act Into Law As Tech Arms Race With China Heats Up Biden Signs Off On NATO Applications For Finland, Sweden Germany Plans Tax Changes To Help Households Cope With Inflation China Consumer Inflation Reaches 2-Year High As Pork Surges China's July Factory-Gate Inflation Hits 17-Month Low Japan's PPI Moderates On Easing Global Commodity Pressure Oil Prices Dip After Industry Data Shows US Crude Stockpiles Rising Asian Shares Track Wall Street Losses Ahead Of US Inflation Data Elon Musk Sells Nearly $7 Billion Worth Of Tesla Stock DOJ Is Preparing To Sue Google Over Ad Market As Soon As Sept Australia's CBA Cautious On Demand After Profit Hits 4-Year HighThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are generally down this morning. Oil prices are also weaker as reports suggest that yesterday’s halt to shipments from Russia via one pipeline will be short lived. China CPI inflation posted a smaller-than-expected rise in July. The print of 2.7% was still the highest since July 2020 but a fall in ‘core’ inflation suggests that pressures are still well contained. In the US, ahead of today’s CPI report, Federal Reserve policymaker Bullard warned that the US central bank is prepared to hold interest rates "higher for longer" if inflation remains higher than expected. Today’s July US CPI report will attract a lot of attention, particularly after last Friday’s strong labour market report for July, which confounded expectations that the economy is already in recession. The fall in oil prices during the month seems likely to have pushed down headline inflation and we forecast the annual rate to have slipped to 8.8% from June’s 9.1%. The further fall in oil prices in early August points to more near-term inflation relief from that area, moreover the sharp rise in gas prices in Europe which is putting upward pressure on UK inflation is less of a factor for the US. Consequently, unless the oil price rebounds sharply, we may now have seen the peak in headline US inflation for 2022. However, a less positive picture on US inflation trends is likely to be provided by the ‘core’ rate (excluding food and energy). Recent monthly updates have shown signs of inflation broadening out to a wider range of goods and particularly services. Expect the July report to provide further evidence of this with the annual core rate of inflation rising to 6.2% from 5.9%. Fed policymakers have said that they are looking for “compelling” evidence that inflationary pressures are easing before they change course on monetary policy. However, this outcome would seemingly support the comments from officials that a further interest rate rise of at least 50 basis points is likely at their next policy update in September. Bank of England Chief Economist Pill will answer questions online later today. This session seems to be primarily aimed at the general public rather than financial market participants but the latter will also be listening. Of most interest will be whether he gives any signal on the likelihood of another interest rate hike in September. US Fed policymakers Evans & Kashkari are scheduled to speak and are likely to repeat comments made last week that they currently favour another US rate increase in September.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0050-55 (674M), 1.0100 (874M), 1.0145-50 (555M) 1.0160 (254M), 1.0170-75 (1.84BLN), 1.0185 (544M), 1.0195-05 (690M) 1.0210-20 (1.95BLN), 1.0225 (300M), 1.0260 (398M) USD/JPY: 133.90-00 (1.18BLN), 134.05-15 (718M) GBP/USD: 1.1990-00 (277M), 1.2040-50 (558M) EUR/GBP: 0.8670 (524M). AUD/USD: 0.6900-10 (307M) 0.6985-0.7000 (735M). USD/CHF: 0.9420 (350M) USD/CAD: 1.2890-00 (1.39BLN). USD/ZAR: 16.50 (260M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Plenty of option strikes in close proximity, as signals edge higher Off 0.1% early, after closing up 0.2% on Tuesday, as choppy trading continues Tight range in Asia ahead of U.S. CPI today - key data for the week Germany plans tax changes to help families cope with inflation Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is neutral/bullish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 UK consumer confidence rises after falling for seven months Rise may be due to release of support payments for low-income households New PM expected to face a winter of rising power cuts and major pay disputes Cost of living crisis likely to be the main focus as rates rise and colder weather comes Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.20 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 135 Steady after closing up 0.1% with an inside day around 134.89 Japan July wholesale prices rise 8.6 pct yr/yr, v's 8.4% consensus Nikkei trades down 0.6% in early Tokyo, after Nasdaq led Wall Street lower Bears target a test of 130 Offers seen at 136.20 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 China CPI and PPI July have come in slightly cooler than expected There hasn't been any reaction in the AUD/USD to the data AUD/USD traded to 0.6947 earlier when Tokyo names were noted sellers Offer at .70 acceptance above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC capped at 24k back below 23k Two week range of 23-24k Under pressure as more crypto exchanges buckle Risk sentiment weighs as the Nasdaq weakens on tech warnings Thieves stole an estimated $190 million from U.S. crypto firm Nomad last week Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k would be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-august-10-2022"
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Market Update – August 10 – Dollar, Stocks & Yields Consolidate ahead of CPI

USDIndex slipped under 106.00, yesterday before agin recovering to 106.20. US Stocks traded lower all day – dragged down by Semiconductors (NASDAQ -1.19%). MUSK to sell another $6.9 bn worth of TSLA stock (-2.44%). Intel -2.43%, NVDA -3.97%, Roblox  -3.17%, GM +3.95%. Asian markets lower too (Hang Seng -2.45%,  Nikkei -0.68%). European FUTS also lower.  Yields rose into close 1.16% (10yr 2.797%),  Oil has declined back under the $90 handle, Gold sank to $1788 support and BTC has moved back $22.7K area. 

Biden announces a $280bn investment in high tech to compete with China; China maintains drills and firing around Taiwan.

• USDIndex tested down to 105.80 but has recovered the 106.00-20 range today ahead of US CPI later in the day.  AUD underperformed in Asian session.
• Equities – USA500 closed down -17.59pts (-0.42%) (4122), US500FUTS at 4118 now. 100 MA at 4100.
• Yields 10-year yield rose into close as recovered USD. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 45bp inverted yesterday. 10yr trades down -0.25% at 2.79% now. 
• Oil – rallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.60 before declining to $89.60 now.  
• Gold – rallied & spiked to $1800 resistance before declining back to support at $1788 again. 20-day MA now $1761.
• Bitcoin’s surge to $24.2K Monday, declined further today to $22.6 earlier, back to test $23k now.
• FX Markets – EURUSD holds over 1.02000, at 1.0210, USDJPY continues to pivots around 135.00 and Cable does the same around 1.2080, in thin August markets.  

Overnight – JPY  PPI missed  (8.6% vs 9.4%), China CPI & PPI both weaker too (2.7% vs 2.9% & 4.2% vs 6.1%) respectively. German CPI (Final) in line 0.9% m/m & 8.5% y/y.

Today – US CPI,  Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Evans & Kashkari. & Earnings from Disney, Honda, Fox, Aviva, Evonik & E.ON.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%). Continued its bounce from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. Testing 1.4700 zone now. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram now positive & signal line rising, RSI 61.83 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00148, Daily ATR 0.0132.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /502489/
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BTCUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish BounceKey Levels:Resistance: 24662.92Pivot: 22483.15Support: 20696.63Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within a bullish channel and RSI moving along an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 22483.15 where the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are to the 1st resistance at 24662.92 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to 1st support at 20696.63 where the swing low support, -61.8% fibonacci expansion and 100% fibonacci projection are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btcusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-continuation10"
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Why the market is wrong about private equity

When it comes to listed private-equity trusts, investors are overly sceptical, with many funds trading at heavy discounts to their net asset values. But the market has it wrong, says Max King.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/605209/why-the-market-is-wrong-about-private-equity
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Market Update – August 9 – USD & Stocks Dip

USDIndex slipped to test 106.00, before recovering to 106.20. US Stocks opened positively but closed flat for the day. NVDA –6.3%, Novavax -5.01%, AMC +8.03%, GM +4.16%. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng flat,  Nikkei -0.88%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields fell into close (10yr 2.7657%),  Oil bounces close to 2% to recoup the $90 handle, Gold rallied over 1% from $1770 support and BTC moved up to test key $24K area.

China continues exercises around Taiwan for 6th day, Russia installs more troops around captured key Ukrainian nuclear power plant, as US promises another $1 billion in military aid.

Week Ahead – Highlight of the week is US CPI tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and  8.7% y/y.

• USDIndex tested down to 106.00 after blockbuster NFP on Friday and holds 106.20 now. AUD & NZD underperformed in Asian session.
• Equities – USA500 closed flat -5.13pts (-0.12%) (4140), tested & rejected 4175 resistance intraday. US500FUTS at 4144 now. 100 MA at 4100.
• Yields 10-year yield fell into close as Treasuries eased with USD. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 44bp inverted intraday. 10yr closed 2.765%, trades at   2.76% now. 
• Oil – rallied from 6-month lows under $87.00 again to test last weeks support at $90.70, and holds at $90.00. 
• Gold – rallied from $1770, support to $1788 highs now. 20-day MA $1757.
• Bitcoin surged to $24.2K Monday, before trading at  $23.7k now.
• FX Markets – EURUSD back over 1.02000, USDJPY rejected 135.50 Monday back to 135.00 now. Cable tested up to to 1.2130 back to 1.2080 support now.

Overnight – UK July Retail Sales beat (+1.6% vs. -1.3%), AUD Consumer Confidence in line (-3%).

Today – EIA STEO, Supply from UK, Germany & US.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.36%). Bounced from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram negative but signal line rising, RSI 53.62 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.0134.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Weekly Market Update – 08 August 2022

The new week kicks off with the Dollar on the front foot on the back of impressive US July jobs figures from Friday.

Dollar

Stronger than expected July jobs figures from Friday’s NFP have buoyed the Dollar significantly and the Index continues to trade near multi-session highs around the 106.36 area at the time of writing.  A key economic event this week in the form of July CPI data could potentially be the catalyst for a sustained run towards the upper end of the range around the 108.90 area and may influence the monetary stance of the FED going into September where a 75bps rate hike is increasingly becoming more of a probability.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price moved impulsively from the bear flag continuation pattern, towards the 104.96 area, before moving back up again correctively to retest the lows of the broken bear flag. What we see now is price potentially creating another bearish continuation pattern in the form of a rising wedge, which has the potential to yield a subsequent impulsive wave that would put the bears in control to challenge the 104.51 area. Conversely, if the pattern fails to break below the 104.96 area, then we could see the bulls take control and drive price towards the 108.00 area.

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Euro

The Euro began this week trading at the lower end of the range it’s been locked in for the past three weeks between the 1.0132–1.0287 area. Volatility from the creation of additional jobs in the US economy in July was the catalyst for the move from the high towards the low end of the range. Market commentators are making the argument for an upside scenario out of this range as well as a downside scenario. The downside is influenced mainly by inflationary pressure and recession fears as well as geopolitical tensions between Europe and Russia. The upside scenario is mainly driven by investors already having priced in the above factors which supports the argument for the pair hitting the 1.0287 area since touching parity levels.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price is still locked in the potential bullish continuation pattern (Bull Flag) that we identified last week. An impulsive break above the structure at the 1.02786 area would be the catalyst for the confirmation of this pattern and put buyers in the driving seat to challenge the 1.04518 area. On the flipside, if the above-mentioned scenario fails, price could potentially revisit areas below the 1.0129 level.

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Pound

Sterling kicked off the week trading up at 0.4%, clawing back some of the gains it lost in the latter half of Friday’s trading session. Going into the first half of the week though, investors will be cautious as US inflation data is poised to be released on Wednesday, and that will give a guide in relation to the health of the world’s strongest economy against the Pound and other peers. Nevertheless, economists are still pointing towards a more fragile Pound in Q3 as the Dollar remains strong, combined with the historic data that shows how poorly the Pound performs when global financial conditions tighten.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, current price action is moving correctively towards the 1.19990 area in the form of a potential bullish continuation pattern (Descending Channel). The overall picture is drawing out a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern which has the potential to turn into a bullish reversal pattern at these areas. If confirmed we could see the bulls drive price towards the 1.24115 area, and on the flipside if price breaks below the 1.19480 area, we could see the bears take control and move price to challenge the lows around the 1.18970 area.

---

Gold

As the dust begins to settle from Friday’s NFP data, the new week is pivotal for the yellow metal as Inflation data for July comes firmly into sight this Wednesday and may be the catalyst for a potential downward move in the price. While the FED remains data-dependent for its policy outlook, Gold will remain at the mercy of US employment figures and a risk-on sentiment driven by the perception of a strong economy and the potential for increased aggression from the FED.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price has been moving in an uptrend, creating higher highs, and higher lows. Having exited the bullish continuation pattern (Falling Wedge) formed last week, price printed out an impulsive wave and pulled back to find support on the lower trendline of the channel. Henceforth price could continue its trajectory to hit the $1,810 area, or on the flipside sellers could take control of the market if price falls below the support around the $1,750 area.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ofentse Waisi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /502068/
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Daily Market Outlook, August 9, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 9, 2022 Overnight Headlines NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Decline Across All Horizons US Dollar Loiters Off Highs As Traders Eye Upcoming CPI Citi: Fed Could Approve 100 Bps Rate Hike After Jobs Shocker EU Puts Forward 'Final' Text To Resurrect Iran Nuclear Deal UK Retail Sales Growth Fails To Keep Pace With Soaring Inflation UK PM Rejects Calls For Emergency Measures On Cost Of Living Crisis China Unlikely To Cut Interest Rate And RRR – Securities Daily Australian Consumer Sentiment Slides As Rates Rise Further Australia Business Activity Booms In July, Costs Continue Surge Oil Prices Retreat On Potential Chance Of Iran Supply Boost Wall Street Strategists Say Stocks Rally At Odds With Profit Outlook Asia Stocks Wobble As Focus Turns To US Inflation Data, Fed Outlook Google Hit By Worldwide Outage As Users Report Search Engine DownThe Day Ahead Asian equity market performance is mixed overnight with no major moves. A US Federal Reserve survey showed that both near-term and longer-term inflation expectations have fallen. The move seems to have been primarily driven by the recent fall in oil prices. A spokesperson for UK PM Johnson said that whether further fiscal support will be given to offset the latest rise in the energy price cap will be up to the new prime minister. The latest British Retail Consortium report showed retail sales up 1.6% yr-on-yr in July, boosted by sales of hot weather clothes and other items to combat the heatwave. The rest of today’s economics calendar is light with nothing of note in either the UK or the Eurozone. Indeed, the schedule for the whole week is sparse until Friday when UK GDP and Eurozone industrial production will provide updates on economic activity. There are also no scheduled speeches from either Bank of England or European Central Bank policymakers as we move into the main holiday period. However, with the Conservative Party leadership contest continuing there will be interest in what the two candidates have further to say about their economic policies and in particular any plans they have to offset the likely impact on consumers of the energy price cap rise expected in October. In the US, the key release of the week will be tomorrow’s update for CPI inflation. Ahead of that, today’s releases are forecast to show a big fall in productivity in Q2, due to the combination of falling GDP and strong employment and a resulting large rise in unit labour costs. Those outturns are likely to reinforce US central bank policymakers’ concerns that inflationary pressures are not yet under control. Meanwhile, the NFIB small business survey for July may provide insights into trends in a key segment of the economy. Already released results to some of the questions show a small rise in hiring plans but a slight easing in the jobs vacancies ‘hard to fill’ component, while compensation plans were unchanged. The latest Chinese inflation data will be released early tomorrow. The July results are expected to show a rise in annual consumer price inflation to 2.9% from 2.5% but a fall in producer price inflation. The expected acceleration in consumer price inflation would take it to its highest since April 2020 and will likely be primarily driven by food prices. However, the big picture is that inflation is still well below trends in much of the rest of the world, which suggest that the government still has room to stimulate economic growth.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 1.0000 (1.06BLN), 1.0100 (799M), 1.0145-50 (926M) 1.0185-90 (1.69BLN), 1.0200-10 (1.69BLN), 1.0225-30 (380M) 1.0260-65 (320M), 1.0300 (1.27BLN) USD/JPY: 133.00 (570M), 133.40 (679M), 134.50 (210M) 135.00-05 (975M), 135.30-40 (1.43BLN) EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (210M) USD/CAD: 1.2750 (325M), 1.2875 (470M), 1.2900 (1.17BLN) 1.2920 (223M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0350 Opens unchanged as market looks ahead to US CPI EUR/USD opens unchanged around 1.02 after a quiet Asian session USD eased against some currencies due to a move lower in US yields EZ bond yields also fell to offset and cap EUR/USD gains Resistance 1.0250/60 stronger offers seen to 1.0350/60, support 1.0100-05, 1.0070-75 20 Day VWAP is neutral/bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2280 Heatwave fuels spending, but likely transitory Opens steady after closing up just 0.05% after a choppy inside day UK shoppers spend as heat-wave hits - likely transitory BRC Cost of living crisis likely to be the main focus as rates rise and colder weather comes Offers sited at 1.2280/1.23 bids 1.20 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bearish below 135 USDJPY supported by expectations of larger Fed interest rate hikes Fed funds futures price in 69% chance of another 75 bps rate hike in Sept NY Fed survey shows US consumers' inflation outlooks drop sharply, caps rise Inflation expectations are a key dynamic for Fed policymakers Bears target a test of 130 Offers seen at 136.20 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .7050 Bulls have the ball, ignore inflation data risks AUD/USD rallied overnight, NY opened near 0.6965, rally extended Equity , copper gains & softer US yields aid lift US July CPI risk looms, downside surprise may squeeze shorts Offer at .70 being eroded as price is accepted above .70 bulls target .71 test AUD/USD support now sited at .6890 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC capped at 24k for now Thieves stole an estimated $190 million from U.S. crypto firm Nomad last week Seventh hack of 2022 to target an increasingly important cog in the crypto machine: Blockchain "bridges" Bulls need a close above 25k to gain significant upside momentum Closing below 21k would be a noteworthy downside development 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-august-9-2022"
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Earning Season: The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company, which has a capitalization of 194.2B, is the world’s largest American media and entertainment conglomerate operating streaming services, movies and theme parks globally. Disney plans to report its earnings report for Q3 2022 (Disney’s fiscal year begins in October of each year) on Wednesday, August 10 after the market closes.

Zacks positions Disney Rank #3 (Hold) in the Top 40% position #103/252 of the Media Conglomerate industry. For this report, an EPS of 0.87–0.94 (+17.5% y/y) is expected, although there are speculations that it could reach $0.99 with a -7.70% ESP. A profit of 21.12B is expected, which would be a year-on-year growth of 24.06% compared to 17.02B last year. The estimate has had 3 upward revisions and 1 downward revision in the last 60 days. The company beat estimates in 3 of the last four quarters only disappointing once, while surprise EPS averaged +89.11%. Disney boasts a P/E ratio of 27.15 and a PEG ratio of 1.28.

Last quarter the company reported EPS of $1.19, up 37% y/y, and revenue of $19.2B, up 29% y/y.

One of the main factors to take into account for this report is the continued growth of subscribers for Disney+, which has become one of its main profit drivers. The platform has not stopped increasing its subscribers since the start of the service in November 2019, thanks to the pandemic that affected online entertainment and its extensive portfolio of exclusive content, currently with an estimate for this Q3 2022 report of 148,703M subscribers globally, up 28% /y and up 7.99% from 137.7 million subscribers in Q2 2022, a new historical maximum that is expected to be broken in this report. On the other hand, Disney+ recently reported that it added several countries in the Middle East and North Africa in its portfolio where the service is offered.

Disney+ is in position #3 of Streaming Services, behind Amazon Prime with 205M subscribers and Netflix with 225M. Disney+ is expected to overtake these based on growth in the coming years.

Streaming Marvel movies on Disney+ is a reliable revenue generator and key element of subscriber retention. The recent Marvel movie Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness grossed $185M in the US alone, which made it the second highest-grossing film of the year. However, in contrast, the most recent film, Lightyear, failed to meet box office expectations grossing only $50.6M vs. $70M expected.

 

Number of Disney+ subscribers: Source:https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095372/disney-plus-number-of-subscribers-us/

Disneyplus.com had a total of 521.5M page views in April (146.1M), May (159.5M) and June (215.9M). 25.7% of visitors were in the United States followed by the United Kingdom with 9.4% and Canada with 6.29%. The age range of 18-34 years formed more than 60% of the total. The page has 987,000 visitors daily with daily ad revenue of $80k. The value of the website amounts to $700,900,000.

Web traffic by device – Source: https://www.semrush.com/website/disneyplus.com/overview/

On the other hand, the reactivation of theme parks will also be important for this report since it will reflect the benefit of the recovery that has taken place in recent quarters following their temporary closure due to the outbreak of Covid. The increase in the Dollar and gasoline will also be a headwind for theme parks outside and inside the US creating difficulty for international and national visitors to attend the parks.

Zacks estimates revenue from parks, experiences and consumer products at $6.71 billion, up +54.6% y/y and up +0.87% from Q2 2022. In other segments, last quarter Disney obtained 13,620M in Media and Entertainment, 7,116M in linear Network, 4,903M Direct to consumer, 1,866M from content sales, licenses and others.

Disney revenue by segment – Source:https://www.statista.com/statistics/1028537/quarterly-revenue-walt-disney-company-by-segment/

We cannot ignore the current world situation. The vertiginous increase in inflation and the already more palpable fear of a recession, together with the increase in the price of gasoline, has marked a change in the behavior of consumers who have stopped spending on non-essential things and increased capital for basic products. Consumers have stopped paying for cable and satellite TV in which Disney is one of the main payment recipients. Likewise, the world situation has reduced spending on advertising not only for Disney but for most companies in general, which also creates difficulty for the company. All of this has marked an underperformance this year, marking a more than 40% drop in its shares from its highs in 2021.

Technical Analysis – #Disney $109.17 (+2.33%)

On a weekly basis the price has fallen from its all-time high at $203.02 on March 21 for 16 months to the 88.6% Fibo at $93.18 with current lows at $90.22 from where it bounced back to the 20-week SMA at $108.51 currently under test. The last lows from where this current cycle started is at $79.05 in March 2020. The price recovered $100 3 weeks ago and has remained above it so far.

Resistance is at the psychological level and previous highs at $120.00, the 61.8% Fibo at $126.41. There is a “Death Cross” (which is unlikely to last long) with the 50-week SMA at $137.75 and just above the 200-week SMA at $139.45, 100-week SMA at $153.21 just shy of the 38.2% Fibo at $155.66. Regarding the supports, the low of the cycle is our support since 2014, if it is broken the price could have a strong fall to the psychological level of 50.00 and from there to the low of 2011 at $30.00.

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Aldo Zapien 

Market Analyst – Educational Office – Mexico

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Sources:

1. https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/DIS/detailed-earning-estimates
2. https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/05/q2-fy22-earnings.pdf
3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095372/disney-plus-number-of-subscribers-us/
4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walt-disney-dis-report-q3-165204000.html
5. https://markets.money.cnn.com/research/quote/snapshot.asp?symb=DIStemp

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