Friday, August 26, 2022

US30USD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 34296.57Pivot: 33461.36Support: 32586.42Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and bouncing off the stochastic support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to pivot at 33461.36 where the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Should price break pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 34296.57 where the swing high resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 32586.42 where the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us30usd-h4-or-potential-bullish-rise"
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FOMO Fridays: EURAUD Under Water

EURAUD Stands Out During Quiet WeekIt’s been a much quieter week for financial markets. Though do bear in mind I’m writing this ahead of today’s Jackson Hole event. Given the focus on Fed chairman Powell’s speech today, markets have been somewhat held hostage over the week. Still, there have been some interesting moves and as is always the case in FX, while one pair is sleeping, another pair is on the move. Chatting with traders ahead of the long weekend here in London, it seems the main move capturing attention has been the more than 2% drop in EURAUD which saw the pair breaking down to fresh 2022 lows. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Risk On Fuels AUD RallyThere have been two sides to this week’s move. The first, is the broad risk-on tone to markets which has helped lift sentiment in AUD. With USD softening over the early part of the week, risk assets across the board were seen higher. Given AUD’s link to commodities prices, the currency tends to outperform during pro-risk market phases. With equities and commodities prices rebounding firmly amidst the USD lull, AUD was seen as one of the strongest performers in FX this week. Additional stimulus in China helped feed into this narrative. Given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner, injections of liquidity there typically help lift AUD on expectations of increased demand for Aussie exports.EUR Under Pressure Over Growth ConcernsAlong with the rise in AUD this week, EUR has remained under pressure. Following last week’s heavy losses, the single currency was seen clinging to recent lows as investor attention was diverted elsewhere. Fears over the health of the eurozone economy amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are keeping sentiment anchored firmly to the downside. A hawkish set of ECB minutes mid-week did little to lift the currency, simply adding to the growth fears which are mounting on the back of a set of weaker-than-forecast Eurozone GDP figures this week. It will be interesting to see how the pair trades on the back of today’s Jackson Hole event which threatens to cause wide-spread volatility into next week.Technical ViewsEURAUDThe pair is currently testing below the 2022 lows around the 1.4330 level. With both MACD and RSI bearish here, and with the pair still within the broad bearish channel which has framed price action this year, the focus is on a break lower and a further move down towards the next big support at 1.3696.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-fridays-euraud-under-water"
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Investment Bank Outlook 26-08-2022

BNY MellonJackson Hole Conference Productivity FocusFederal Reserve Chairman Powell's breakfast speech this morning in Wyoming will be focusing on the main topic of the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy”. Unleashing productivity growth will, in our opinion, take the driving seat in FX markets for years to come.In a world where inflation converged across the globe, FX market participants increasingly focused on current account imbalances and capital flows. Countries delivering faster domestic demand would, in turn, develop large external imbalances, which required capital inflows to balance external accounts. In this note we denote such currency valuation models Balanced Equilibrium Exchange Rates (BEER).While this backdrop remains the case, large inflation differentials will likely bring currency markets’ attention back to price dynamics and productivity. The idea that exchange rates adjust to make up for price differentials is quite intuitive. This is the backbone of the so-called Purchasing Power Parity currency valuation models (PPP).Nevertheless, price differentials may prevail for a while, warranting an additional factor to explain currency strength. Enter productivity growth. Countries able to produce the same quality goods and services more efficiently than others would therefore be able to sustain stronger exchange rates and/or higher inflation. As a result, an additional modeling framework helps explain FX valuation with factors such as terms of trade (ratio of export to import prices), foreign direct investment and labor productivity. We define such a framework Dynamic Equilibrium Exchange Rate (DEER). Countries in which productivity growth is collapsing will therefore need to deal with an expensive exchange rate, and perhaps also the risk of currency crisis down the road.In the chart below we calculate two simple BEER and DEER models for the USD. We define BEER misalignment as the real effective exchange rate adjustment required to close the external gap in the US's balance of payments. On the eve of the Great Financial Crisis, the USD’s BEER was overvalued by as much as 20%. According to this model, the USD is now 12.9% overvalued, as the current account deficit has been widening substantially since June 2018, from 1.8% of GDP to 3.9% of GDP now.The dark line represents a DEER valuation model that incorporates terms of trade, foreign direct investment, and labor productivity in the US. DEER misalignment is therefore the currency adjustment required to close the gap opened from excessive or lagging productivity growth. These factors explained a cheap USD in the 1990s and a subsequently expensive USD following the NASDAQ collapse and a dearth of business sector investment thereafter. The shaded area is the USD real effective exchange rate, which accounts for inflation differentials and trade-weighted exchange rates.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-26-08-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, August 26, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 26, 2022 Overnight Headlines Jackson Hole Symposium Likely To Underline Current Fed Strategy Fed's Bullard: Inflation Likely To Be More Persistent Than Expected Fed's Harker: Would Like To Get Rates Above 3.4% And 'Sit For A While' Fed’s George Says It Has To Get Rates Higher To Slow Down Demand Decision To End ECB Reinvestments Takes Back Seat To Rate Hikes - RTRS US And China Close To Deal Resolving Impasse Over Audit Inspections China Greenlights $70bn-Plus In Infrastructure Bonds To Lift Economy China Newspaper Sees GDP Gain From Extra Infrastructure Stimulus Tokyo Aug Core Consumer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In Nearly 8 Years Hottest Tokyo Prices Since 1992 Ramp Up Heat On BoJ Messaging RBNZ’s Orr Sees Central Banks Needing To Push Toward Zero Growth Oil Set For Weekly Gain On Tighter Supply Before Powell Speech Aus Stocks Lead Gains In Asia Ahead Of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech China's A Shares Are Still Resilient Despite Recent Fall - Daily Dell Revenue Growth Slows On Strong Dollar, China Lockdowns Bridgewater Sees Stocks, Bonds Dropping Up To 25% On Fed QTThe Day Ahead An announcement has just been made on Ofgem’s energy price cap which is set to rise to £3,549 from £1,971 on 1st October. With wholesale gas prices still rising further increases are being forecast for early 2023 with some predicting the price cap could move above £5,000 by April. Reports suggest that the Conservative Party leadership candidates are discussing possible support measures for both households and businesses. Some reports say that a package could be announced in the second week of September soon after the new UK PM is confirmed. Meanwhile, the latest German consumer confidence measure fell to a record low on the back of higher energy prices. Today’s US Federal Reserve policy symposium has been eagerly awaited by markets. The event is primarily an opportunity for central bank policymakers to meet with economists and discuss a key topic of the day. This week’s theme is “Reassessing constraints on the economy & policy”. Typically, of most immediate wider interest are the comments of Fed Chair Powell who is scheduled to speak at 3pm BST. Last year, Fed Chair Powell said that inflationary pressures were temporary - a comment that he later had cause to regret. This time markets will be looking for signals on the size of the probable US rate hike in September, indications of whether he thinks inflation has now peaked and what evidence he and his colleagues will want to see before ending monetary tightening. The likelihood is that his message will be hawkish, highlighting that not only do they want to see a fall in headline inflation but are equally focused on whether domestic inflationary pressures - such as the tight labour market – have settled. Today’s data calendar outside the US is light with nothing of note in the UK. In the Eurozone, July M3 money supply data will be watched for any signs of the effects of the recent pivot in monetary policy. In the US, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (the personal consumption expenditure deflator) is expected to confirm the message from the CPI data that inflation fell modestly in July but is still well above target. Consumer spending is expected to have risen modestly in July, while the trade deficit in goods is forecast to be little different from June. Citi month-end FX model points to EUR buying and JPY selling Fixed income indices have seen renewed losses in August while equities have shown mixed performance, the bank says, where the MSCI US equity index is broadly unchanged in the month, but European equities are down and Japanese equities up. "The signals to buy EUR and sell JPY are driven by respective under and outperformance of local assets," Citi said, adding that "fixed income hedge rebalancing needs explain about 80% of the signal, which is unusual by historic standards." Citi says that its real money clients have been modest net buyers of JPY in recent days, suggesting no early rebalancing on the JPY sell signal. Flows into EUR have been positive, on the margin, in line with the model's signal - Source: CT NewsFX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 0.9850 (536M), 1.0000-10 (2.0BLN), 1.0050-55 (1.08BLN), 1.0150 (1.75BLN) USD/JPY: 135.00 (360M), 137.00-10 (1.3BLN) USD/CHF: 0.9755 (250M) USD/CAD: 1.2870 (226M), 1.2875-85 (524M), 1.2900 (210M), 1.3000 (350M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0250 Consolidation within 3 Day range ahead of Jackson Hole Today's event risk is FED Chair Powell Speech 3pm BST Close above 1.02 needed to end downside bias More than €2bn of 0.9850 put strikes due this Friday Monthly and weekly projected range support sited at 9830/50 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2050 Bounce short lived and reversing into LDN – trend is lower below 1.2050 No domestic event risk today, all eyes on Jackson Hole Close above 1.2050 needed to relieve downside pressure Supported sited at 1.17 ahead of weekly projected range support at 1.16 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 133.40 USDJPY bid and set to retest projected range resistance 137.50 Retail traders squaring books ahead of Jackson Hole event risk Japanese importers and retail will be looking to buy the dips, likely close to 135.60 Dealers expect more chop ahead of more US data, Fed Jackson Hold meet 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .71 Consolidating yesterday's gains Further support from buoyant risk sentiment, caution ahead of Powell speech Resistance is at 0.7010 Testing 20 Day VWAP from below A break below 0.6850 would open the way to the trend low at 0.6682 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC continues to rotate within 22/21k range USD offered ahead of Jackson Hole event risk BTC supported by lower VWAP (20.9k) for now, then Jul 13 low 18.9k Res Aug 21 high 21.8k, 22.1k, 23k's 50% Fib of 25.2-20.7k Aug 28's 22.2k may pull BTC higher 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-august-26-2022"
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Market Update – August 26

  • USDIndex – back in demand ahead of Powell at Jackson Hole and as markets speculated on 100 bps in ECB hikes by October, though it recovered some to finish at 108.64.
  • EUR – Remains under parity. German GfK consumer confidence plunged to -36.5, which could keep Euro underpinned.
  • JPY has lifted to 137.00, GBP steady below 1.1800.
  • AUD fell 0.4% below the psychological level of $0.7 & NZD fell 0.5%, giving up some of the strong gains in the previous day. The AUD has been performing better against the battered European currencies.
  • Stocks: US stocks are in the red with concern over aggressive tightening and a rise in yields capping gains (USA100 rallied 0.41%, with the USA500 up 0.29%, and the USA30 0.18% higher). Nikkei and ASX are up 0.8% and 0.5% after a strong close on Wall Street. GER40 and UK100 futures have lifted 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
  • Oil slumped by about $2 a barrel on the possible return of sanctioned Iranian oil exports and on worries about the impact on fuel demand from rising US. Down to $92.08.
  • Gold – bounced from support at $151.80  to $1758.70.

TodayUS PCE, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed’s Chair Powell Speech. 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD(0.45%). Dropped to 0.6195 from 0.6250. MAs aligning lower,  MACD histogram negative & signal line falling, RSI 36.74 & dropping,  H1 ATR 0.00089.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



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Neom megacity: Saudi Arabia’s vision of the future

The kingdom is building a futuristic city in the desert, a key component of its plan to wean the economy off oil and woo tourists and global businesses. Could it work?

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Thursday, August 25, 2022

On the Road to Jackson Hole!

Treasury yields have been choppy in early action awaiting Chair Powell’s speech Friday. There was little reaction from the GDP or claims data though the marginal boosts to growth and consumption in GDP, and the tightening in claims did weigh at the margin. Bonds had already pared their earlier gains after comments from the KC Fed’s George who indicated the FOMC will have to move rates up into restrictive territory, possibly over 4% and hold there in order to bring down demand.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



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MICRO DAX Futures (FDXS1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 13781Pivot: 13383Support: 13004Preferred Case:With the price breaking the descending trendline and DIF line is crossing above the signal line in MACD , if the price could break the pivot at 13383, we could have a bullish bias that the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 13781, where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and swing highs are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 13004, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance are.Fundamentals:The German Final GDP q/q is higher than the expectation.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-dax-futures-fdxs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise25"
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The Crude Chronicles - Episode 150

Oil Traders Re-Build LongsThe latest CFTC COT institutional positioning report shows that crude traders increased their net long positions last week from around 210k contracts to roughly 214k contracts. While not a huge increase, the adjustment does at least put an end to the weeks of reductions we’ve seen in upside bets. This change has been well reflected in price action this week with crude oil failing to continue the recent downward trend and instead reversing higher.Mixed Backdrop For OilThe backdrop for oil remains tricky with the market still caught between opposing forces. On the one hand, the ongoing supply disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, in terms of oil output but also global distribution, is keeping prices supported. With gas prices soaring back to highs over the last week, oil has seen fresh demand as consumers and businesses turn towards oil usage to avoid the price peaks in gas. Additionally, the uptick in global travel, along with the summer driving season in the US, has also had a bullish impact on crude prices, lifting the demand outlook.Recession Fears Still Weigh However, there are still mounting concerns over a potential global recession over the remainder of the year. China has been scrambling to add stimulus over the last two-weeks as data releases there continue to highlight economic weakness. Furthermore, news of fresh lockdowns in China this week are also hurting sentiment. Oil prices suffered sharply during the Shanghai lockdowns earlier in the year and, with fears of further, major lockdowns later in the year, oil traders are wary of the impact on demand.OPEC Production Cut ChatterThe latest headlines around OPEC have helped lift oil prices this week. Comments made by the Saudi Arabian energy minister earlier in the week suggested that OPEC might look to ease off on production once again in a bid to help lift ailing oil prices. While the comments have not yet been confirmed by OPEC, given Saudi’s role as the group’s de-facto leader, traders have been happy to buy oil on the back of the comments.EIA Reports Further DrawdownThere was further good news for crude bulls from the EIA this week. The group reported a larger-than-expected drawdown of 3.3 million barrels last week. This was beyond the 2.5 million barrel drawdown forecast. Despite the better news on headline inventories, gasoline stocks were virtually unchanged, suggested slowing demand from the US driving season as summer winds down.Technical ViewsCrude OilThe reversal higher off the 85.53 level in crude has seen the market breaking out above the bear channel from YTD highs. Price is now testing the 95.93 level, which holds a strong of broken former lows. This is a key level for the market and a break higher here will open the way for a much fuller recovery. Failure here, however, keeps the focus on further downside near-term with 85.53 vulnerable.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-150"
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Which is best – buy-to-let or shares?

Buy-to-let property used to be a great investment, but it’s no longer a sure-fire way to make money.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/605267/which-is-best-buy-to-let-or-shares
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Daily Market Outlook, August 25, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, August 25, 2022 Overnight Headlines Asian Markets Gain, Investors Anxious For U.S. Rate Hike Clues Hedge Funds Build Biggest Bet Against Italian Debt Since 2008 Dollar Eases From Near Two-Decade Peak As Jackson Hole Looms Global Stocks In For A Chilly Winter, Strategists Say - RTRS Poll Nvidia Forecasts Sharp Drop In Third-Quarter Sales As Games Drag Bank Of Korea Raises Key Interest Rate To 2.50% From 2.25% As Exp NZ Retail Sales Decline For The Second Quarter In A Row - StatsNZ Japan Sees Economy Picking Up Modestly, Flags Looming Risks BoJ’s Kuroda Would Hold Policy Even If Inflation Hits 3%, Survey Shows German Ifo Biz Conf Set To Continue Decline As Prices Trend Higher Government Bonds Sell Off On Higher Interest Rate Expectations Global Bond Inflows To Emerging Asia Signal Shift In Outlook - Oil Prices Rise On Potential OPEC+ Cuts; BP Shuts U.S. Refinery Units White House Continues To Call On Refiners To Increase Output Salesforce Falls As Revenue Forecast Misses Analysts’ Estimates Amazon Plans To Shut Down Primary Care And Telehealth ServiceThe Day Ahead Asian equities are up overnight possibly supported by the economic support package announced by China. The 19-point plan includes additional stimulus for infrastructure, property, energy, and agriculture, estimated to be worth around Yuan 1trn. Meanwhile, the oil price has continued to climb from recent lows with Brent crude touching above $102bbl its highest since late July. The August German IFO survey will provide a timely update on economic conditions. So far this year it has showed a small fall in the assessment of current conditions and a much bigger decline in expectations. Given ongoing concerns, not least about rising energy prices, a further decline in both components is expected today. The UK’s CBI retail survey will be an unofficial indication of August sales. Last week’s official release for July showed a rise in sales for only the second time in the last nine months. However, given the concerns about the squeeze on spending power from high inflation it will be no surprise if this month does not see another increase. In the US, the Q2 GDP release is a second reading. The first outturn showed a second consecutive quarterly decline. The update is not expected to be revised significantly although some forecasters are forecasting a modest upward revision. The weekly jobless claims data will provide a timelier reading on labour market conditions. New claims are above the lows seen earlier this year, but they are nevertheless still low by historic standards. So overall they continue to suggest that the market is tight. The minutes of the ECB’s July policy meeting, when interest rates were raised by a more than expected 50 basis points, will be watched for clues on the size of the expected second hike in early September. The ECB faces a similar dilemma to many other central banks with the inflation data arguing for aggressive action whereas the activity indicators point to the need for more caution. Nevertheless, markets think that a second successive 50bp hike is the most likely outcome. The US Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole starts tomorrow. The full agenda will be released overnight but we already know that Fed Chair Powell’s speech, which is the thing most likely to impact on financial markets, will be at 3pm BST on Friday.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 0.9950-55 (1.24BLN), 1.0000-10 (2.7BLN), 1.0020 (280M), 1.0090-00 (1.05BLN), 1.0145-55 (970M) USD/JPY: 135.75-85 (499M), 135.90-00 (760M), 136.256-30 (300M), 137.00 (633M) GBP/USD: 1.1820 (574M) USD/CHF: 0.9600 (302M) AUD/USD: 0.6945-50 (482M) USD/CAD: 1.2850-55 (700M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0250 Bid in Asian the session, position squaring ahead of Jackson Hole Today's event risk comes from ECB minutes Close above 1.02 needed to end downside bias More than €2bn of 0.9850 put strikes due this Friday Monthly and weekly projected range support sited at 9830/50 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2050 Bounce continues to relieve oversold signals – trend is lower below 1.2050 No domestic event risk today Close above 1.2050 needed to relieve donside pressure Supported sited at 1.17 ahead of weekly projected range support at 1.16 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 133.40 USD/JPY off from monthly projected range resistance 137.50 Retail traders squaring books ahead of Jackson Hole event risk Japanese importers and retail will be looking to buy the dips, likely close to 135.60 Dealers expect more chop ahead of more US data, Fed Jackson Hold meet 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .71 Opens higher as USD eases and commodities firm Further support from first equities Resistance is at 0.7010 Testing 20 Day VWAP from below A break below 0.6850 would open the way to the trend low at 0.6682 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC pushes further from pivotal 21k USD offered ahead of Jackson Hole event risk Higher Fed rate view no boon for cryptos; J-Hole summit Aug 25-27 in focus BTC supported by lower VWAP (20.9k) for now, then Jul 13 low 18.9k Res Aug 21 high 21.8k, 22.1k, 23k's 50% Fib of 25.2-20.7k Aug 28's 22.2k may pull BTC higher 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullish

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Market Update – August 25 – USD Slips, Stocks Gain – Jackson Hole Ahead

  • USDIndex – another volatile day – down from 109.00 declined to 108.20 after mixed Durable Goods & more Housing Data. – Jackson Hole in focus. 
  • EUR – Remains weighed by energy crisis and record high GAS prices. German GDP helps a lift back to 1.000, but in 4th day below this key level.
  • JPY holds between 137.00 & 136.00 having failed to breach 137.00 yesterday.
  • GBP also weighed by energy crisis & widening strike action.Trades at 1.1850 with 1.1800 now support.
  • Stocks US stocks gained into close. (S&P500 -12.00pts (+0.3%) 4140) Biggest movers – Peloton & BBBY (+20 & +18%) ; Revlon & Nordstrom (-11% & –20%). Nvidia -4.56% After hours following Earnings miss.
  • Oil continued to rally, more chatter of OPEC+ production cuts, BP closing refineries due to fires and a big fall in inventories.  Up 0.5% over $95 to $95.60.
  • Gold – bounced from support at $1736 and $1745 and trades at $1758.
  • BTC – over 21-21.5K range at 21.6k.

Overnight Asian equity markets recovered after nine days lower, European FUTS also higher. NZD Retail Sales Miss significantly (-2.3% vs. 1.7%), JPY SPPI misses (2.1% vs. 2.2%) German Final Q2 GDP a tick better at (0.1% vs. 0.0%).

Today – German Ifo, US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB, CBRT & Banxico Minutes.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.88%). Rally from 0.6850 & 0.6900 support continues, trades at 0.6975 now. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 73.60 OB & rising,  H1 ATR 0.00137, Daily ATR 0.00823.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



from HF Analysis /507971/
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Gold Price Forecast: Potential Rise Ahead?

Gold has approached the supporting level of 1760 and the broken downtrend from the Elder timeframe, which is denoted by the blue line on the chart below. Currently, the price of gold is trying to pull from the abovementioned trendlines, targeting the level of 1880. So, let’s observe what is going to happen next.The currency pair EUR/USD remains in the supporting zone formed between the levels 0.9950 and 1.0000. This asset is likely to undergo a correction and jump.Oil is moving in the range. Now, the price of oil got back under the level of 100. The asset’s price is targeting the resistance at the level of 107.50 away from which it might potentially drop.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/gold-price-forecast-potential-rise-ahead"
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Three cryptocurrency funds for the adventurous investor

The crypto sector is extremely risky, but these three cryptocurrency funds may appeal to adventurous investors who anticipate a rebound, says David Stevenson.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/605260/three-cryptocurrency-funds-for-the
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Don’t count resources out

Commodities have performed poorly over the past year, but they tend to move in long and volatile cycles. from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://m...