Investment Bank Outlook 06-09-2022

BNY MellonEntrusting Truss With GiltsNew Prime Minister Liz Truss isexpected to announce a major support package for UK households within days, ifnot sooner. As highlighted last week, the prospect of energy bills moving frombarely 3% of median household disposable income to closer to 20% is likely tohave devastating socio-economic consequences. As EU governments are expected toswiftly announce their own measures, it has become clear that windfall taxeswill need to be part of the solution, as will be the case in Germany.However, Truss had beenprioritising tax cuts to kickstart growth throughout her leadership campaign,so it will be hard for her not to deliver revenue-based easing. This setsthe UK up for some serious questions on fiscal credibility – it is alreadybeing tested in bond markets. We share concerns regarding the right balance offiscal plans in the UK and expect some degree of fiscal risk premia to featurein the near term. However, we think fears of unfunded tax cuts and energysubsidies precipitating a fiscal collapse are not justified.Some details of tax cuts havealready been floated in the media; they appear to be heavily skewed towardsreducing the burden of work-related income to free up space for more spending.Initial proposals reportedly include reversing the rise in National Insurancelaunched earlier this year by former Chancellor and the runner-up in theleadership race, Rishi Sunak. While the improvement in household cashflow wouldbe beneficial to a UK economy still highly dependent on consumption, there willlikely be immediate concerns over a sharp drop in revenue. As the chart belowshows, National Insurance and Income Tax together contribute close to £400bn tothe exchequer, almost six times the level of corporate taxes, which were raisedthis year as well. In addition, there are also appear to be proposals to reducevalue-added tax, though it remains to be seen whether this is done on energy orenergy-related items, which is already being applied across Europe.INGUSD: Equities Divergence MattersUS markets re-open after a long weekend today and futures currently point at a slightly positive open in the Dow Jones, despite yesterday’s slump in European equities. Diverging US-European equity performance is becoming a relevant theme for FX as a driver of USD strength: in our EUR/USD short-term fair value model, the relative equity performance factor has seen its beta grow steadily since the start of July. Indeed, the ongoing energy crisis does suggest that it will take time to restore trust in European assets. In the past three months, the Dow and S&P500 are both down -5%, while the DAX has lost 13% and Euro Stoxx 9%.Expect a pick-up in volatility today after yesterday’s rather muted trading. On the data side, markets will focus on the US ISM Service index, which is expected to have dropped after July’s modest rebound. This is probably the most important piece of data before the CPI report on 13 September, and with markets still torn about the possibility of a 75bp Fed hike in two weeks (65bp is priced in), asset classes should prove quite sensitive to the release.There are no scheduled Fed speakers today, but we’ll hear from a plethora of members tomorrow and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.Barring a major dovish repricing in Fed rate expectations, the strong dollar story should remain broadly untouched this week, as the energy supply crisis keeps markets away from most European currencies and may fuel safe-haven flows further. As we’ve highlighted in recent notes, the yen’s role as a safe haven has been eroded by Japan’s worsening trade position, and the USD/JPY rally may have further to go until Japanese authorities intervene.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-06-09-2022"
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, September 6, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, September 6, 2022 Overnight Headlines Bank Of England’s Mann Calls For ‘Forceful’ Action On Rates Retailers Warn Of Storm Ahead As UK Sales Growth Stutters UK Shoppers, Feeling The Inflation Hit, Cut Back On Non-Essentials Truss Earmarks £130Bln To Keep UK Energy Bills Below £2K China Delays Key Annual Financial Forum Amid Covid Flare-Up Japan's Household Spending Extends Growth But Inflation Risks Loom Japan July Real Wages Continue To Slide As Rising Prices Weigh The RBA Lifts Rates To 2.35%, More Increases To Come Australia Current Account Surplus Balloons In Q2, Boosts Growth Australia Government Spending Makes Minor Contribution To Q2 GDP China Sets Yuan Fix Weaker Than 6.9 A Dollar, Unseen Since 2020 Oil Holds Advance After OPEC+ Delivers Modest Cut In Production EU Chief Negotiator: Iran Nuclear Deal ‘In Danger’ Brussels Pushes For EU-wide Caps On Gas Price Stocks In Asia Turned Mixed, While US Equity Futures Rose CVS Agrees To Buy Signify Health For About $8 BillionThe Day Ahead Asian equity markets are mixed as investors continue to assess the outlook for the global economy and interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 50bp to 2.35% as expected. US Treasury yields rose overnight after yesterday’s hiatus for a public holiday. In the UK, the British Retail Consortium reported like-for-like sales easing to 0.5%y/y in August, down from 1.6%y/y in July. Oil prices pared gains after rising yesterday following the decision by OPEC+ to cut production. New Conservative Party leader, Liz Truss, formally becomes UK Prime Minister today after Boris Johnson tenders his resignation to the Queen. Market reaction yesterday to Truss’s victory in the leadership contest was limited because the outcome was in line with expectations. A new package of measures to support the economy is expected to be announced on Thursday which could include plans to freeze household energy bills for households. According to reports, the measures could cost over £100bn. The only notable UK data release today is the August construction PMI. The headline index fell to 48.9 last month, below the key 50 level separating expansion and contraction for the first time since early 2021. Markets are looking for a sixth consecutive decline today, to 48.0. The US data calendar is relatively quiet this week, but it includes today’s August ISM services report. The July ISM services index unexpectedly rose to a three-month high of 56.7, despite recession concerns. Expect it to ease back to 54.5, although that would remain firmly in the growth zone. In contrast, the alternative US services PMI compiled by S&P Global has been below 50 in both July and August. The final August reading for that survey is also due today.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 0.9900 (792M), 0.9995-1.0000 (1.08B), 1.0095-1.0100 (896M) USD/JPY: 138.75 (600M), 140.00 (626M). USD/CHF: 0.9815-25 (720M) AUD/USD: 0.6800 (722M), 0.6875 (1.06B). USD/CAD: 1.0325-30 (996M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0250 Recovery from 20 year low continues, nears resistance EUR/USD tracking higher in Asia as short-covering continues It has traded as high as 0.9971 with the 10-year MA at 0.9976 A clear break above 0.9976 would likely force more short-covering USD softer against most currencies as Asia trading with a risk-on tone Sustained 0.9900 break would target 0.9608 base in September 2002 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2050 Relief rally as UK political uncertainty ends +0.5%, leading USD lower - short squeeze as Truss becomes PM Cautious UK shoppers, feeling inflation, cut non-essentials Food spending +7.2%, utility bills +45.2% on Barclaycard - tough winter Bearish trending setup targets 1.1413 March 2020 base longer-term Close above 1.1672 needed to undermine downside bias 1.1413 March 2020 low initial support, 1.1519 NY close resistance 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 133.40 Japan FX jaw – boning again fall on deaf ears USD/JPY bounces after to dip to 140.25 EBS despite fresh jaw-boning FinMin Suzuki again lashed out at high FX volatility Stressed FX must reflect fundamentals, move in stable fashion As in recent past, he is watching the market with sense of urgency USD/JPY downside remains limited with market bias remaining up Hawkish Fed, higher US yields, importer demand to keep USD bid on dips 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .71 Gives back early gains – RBA reaction muted AUD/USD opened -0.16% at 0.6797 and immediately moved higher E-minis opened -0.60% and provided a positive tone for Asia AUD/USD traded up to 0.6832 as USD broadly weakened Rally ran out of steam and AUD/USD was around 0.6805 into the RBA decision RBA hiked 50 BPs to 2.35% as expected and statement was same as August AUD/USD grated around 0.6800 before settling 0.6805/10 Market will now focus on global growth outlook now the RBA is out of the way AUD/USD support is at double-bottom formed around 0.6770 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC trades sub 20k again ETH outperforms BTC as merge countdown continues Cardano & Cosmos competing blockchains notable outperformers Macro econ uncertainty continues to weigh on BTC as USD prints 20yr highs BTC supported by Jul 13 low 18.9k Aug 28's 22.2k may pull BTC higher 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-6-2022"
via IFTTT

Market Update – September 6 – Eyes on the deepening EU energy crisis

• USDIndex – pulled back to 109.60 but still highlighting that the USD remains the haven asset of choice for now. Yields are on the rise again and stocks are struggling as the US returns from the holiday and markets keep a close eye on the deepening energy crisis in Europe and China’s Covid situation as the ECB meeting on Thursday comes into view. US 10-year rate at 3.24% 5.3 bp higher than on Friday.
• EUR – weaker than expected German orders numbers at the start of the session, only added to signs that Europe is heading for a recession but EUR trades at 0.9957 now.
• JPY  remained under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 24-year highs at 141.20.
• GBP at 1.1587 after on Monday near its weakest level in decades in a sign of faltering investor sentiment in UK markets as Liz Truss prepares to take the reins as prime minister.new multi-year lows under 1.1500 yesterday, back to 1.1550 now. New PM next week.
• AUD -RBA raised rates by 50 bp and signalled further rate hikes to come but noted that it is not on a pre-set path. AUDUSD is below 0.68 following a spike to 0.6832.
• Stocks – GER40 & UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Asian markets traded narrowly mixed.
• Oil at $88.75. OPEC+ announced an output cut of 100K barrels per day and amid signs that a revival of Iran’s nuclear deal has run into difficulties.
• Gold – rose to $1726.80.

Overnight – RBA raised rates by 50 bp & weaker than expected German factory orders.

Today – UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance, US ISM Services PMI.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY(+1.14%). Spiked to 1-month pak at 163.80. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 83,  H1 ATR 0.3130, Daily ATR 1.28.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /511690/
via IFTTT

CORN FUTURES (ZC1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 721'0Pivot: 667'4Support: 641'0Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator and along the ascending trendline , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 667'4 where the pullback support and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to the 1st resistance at 721'0 in line with pullback resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 641'0 where the pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are.Fundamentals:No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/corn-futures-zc1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise5"
via IFTTT

Investment Bank Outlook 05-09-2022

INGUSD: The pre-eminent safe haven right nowWhat initially looked like a benign end to the week after some encouraging US jobs data quickly reversed on Friday evening when Russia’s Gazprom announced it would be indefinitely suspending gas flows through its Nordstream 1 pipeline. While European nations have made progress towards their gas storage targets, such a complete, early withdrawal of Nordstream 1 supplies is likely to see European natural gas prices surge today and European equity markets resume under heavy pressure.Over the weekend, authorities in Finland and Sweden announced liquidity guarantee schemes for large utility companies, making reference that they did not want an energy crisis to turn into a financial crisis. We have not yet really seen financial stress indices such as the 3m Euribor-ESTR spread start to widen appreciably. But understandably, international investors are looking to steer clear of European exposure at present.Offering 2.3% overnight deposit rates and backed by near energy independence and a relatively strong US economy, it should not be a surprise to see the dollar remaining bid. As we noted last week, we doubt the Japanese yen offers much of a safe haven at the moment given the nature of the crisis wiping out Japan’s trade surplus.For the week ahead the US data calendar is light, but we have several Fed speakers including Chair Powell on Thursday. Equally the G10 has several big central bank meetings including the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Canada (BoC) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). All should be considering rate hikes at least in the 50bp region, if not 75bp. These size hikes can offer some support to respective currencies – but look unlikely to turn core FX trends around.DXY is now comfortably through 110 and 111.30 looks to be the next resistance area. Don’t fight the trend here.EUR: Trial by gasThe gas news has sent EUR/USD to a new low for the year and it is not obvious where the next support levels exist – perhaps 0.9850 and then not until the 0.9600/9650 area. There is a risk of moving into ‘fast markets’ and understandably EUR/USD implied volatility is turning bid again.Our German macro team feels that the weekend package of support measures to the German economy does not go far enough – worth just 2% of GDP compared to 15% of GDP levels of support seen through the pandemic. Equally, we think a 75bp hike at Thursday’s meeting is a leap too far for the ECB – we look for 50bp. This will not help the euro either.EUR/CHF should turn lower again after its recent spike higher. We expect the Swiss National Bank to be intervening on both sides of EUR/CHF now. But given the SNB’s recent hawkish shift, we do not think it would have a problem with EUR/CHF at 0.95.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-05-09-2022"
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, September 5, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, September 5, 2022 Overnight Headlines Gas Cut Pushes Euro To New Lows, Pound Falls To Lowest Level Since 1985 Britain's Truss Expected To Be Named Conservative Leader, New PM Biden Administration To Maintain China Tariffs While Review Continues Senators Return To Work For Final Legislative Push Before Midterms World Food Prices Extend Drop As Supply Uptick Offers Relief China’s Covid Spread Persists After Mega-City Lockdown China Caixin Services PMI Softens In August, But Sector Growth Still Strong Japan's Services Sector Shrinks For First Time In Five Months In August Oil Rallies With OPEC+ Decision, G-7 Cap Plan Dominating Trading Germany To Levy Windfall Tax On Energy Groups To Fund €65Bln Aid Package Germany To Make ‘Billions’ Off Energy Firm Levy, Scholz Says Germany Will Stick To Debt Brake In 2023 Despite New Relief Package OPEC+ Likely To Freeze Output At Monday Meeting – WSJ Sources Russia Signals Opposition To OPEC+ Oil-Production Cut Gazprom Reportedly To Increase Gas To EU Via Ukraine After Nord Stream Halt Liz Truss Could Freeze Bills To Avoid Energy ‘Armageddon’ Amazon Closes, Abandons Plans For Dozens Of US WarehousesThe Day Ahead Investor risk aversion prevailed in Asia, with most equity indices trading lower. Wholesale gas prices in Europe are sharply higher this morning after Russia announced at the weekend that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be shut indefinitely. The euro and pound have fallen further against the US dollar. Oil prices are firmer ahead today’s decision on output by OPEC+. US markets are closed for Labor Day. The new leader of the Conservative Party, either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak, is expected to be announced today at around 12:30BST. A new Prime Minister will be formally installed on Tuesday. There are hopes that details of further significant support measures for households and businesses facing rising energy costs will be provided soon after the new PM takes office. Polls point to Truss as favourite to become the next PM, and she announced action will be forthcoming, potentially within a week of taking office, as reports suggest she is considering plans to freeze household bills while providing separate support for businesses. The other domestic event sterling markets will be focused on this week is the Bank of England MPC members’ testimony to Parliament on Wednesday. Ahead of that, MPC member Catherine Mann speaks today on inflation and monetary policy. The final readings for the August services PMI in the UK and Eurozone will be released this morning. The flash estimate revealed UK services PMI staying in the growth zone but, at 52.5, the pace of expansion was the slowest for eighteen months. Eurozone services PMI, meanwhile, fell to 50.2, just above the growth/contraction level. Eurozone retail sales and the Sentix investor confidence survey are also due. In the early hours of Tuesday (UK time), the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates again by 50bp to 2.35%. Other major central banks later this week – the Bank of Canada on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday – are also expected to announce higher interest rates.CFTC Data Specs add to USD long; sell into EUR strength, buy into yen weakness USD net spec long up in Aug 24-30 IMM period, amid $IDX +0.21% EUR$ +0.45% in period, anchored by 1.00; specs -3,567 contracts now -47,676 $JPY rose 1.5% in period, specs -2,724 contracts now -41,531 GBP$ -1.53% in period, specs -1,204 contracts now short 29,170 AUD and CAD see small buying amid USD gain of 1%; CAD only spec long vs USD BTC specs buy into 7.05% dip near trend lows sub-20k, long grows to +1,296 Source - Reuters DataFX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 0.9850 (645M), 0.9875 (340M), 0.9900 (1.8BLN), 0.9925 (352M), 0.9950 (610M), 0.9975-80 (446M), 1.0000-05 (1.94BLN), 1.0020-25 (1.44BLN), 1.0050 (1.01BLN) USD/JPY: 138.00 (1.34BLN), 138.25-30 (380M), 138.65 (323M), 139.00 (250M), 139.25 (200M), 139.50 (300M), 140.00 (560M), 140.50 (260M) EUR/JPY: 139.57 (953M) GBP/USD: 1.1475 (252M), 1.1600 (560M), 1.1750 (291M) EUR/GBP: 0.8550 (250M) AUD/USD: 0.6795-00 (786M) USD/CAD: 1.3150 (310M), 1.3200-10 (341M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0250 Poised above key support – energy crunch approaches -0.45% - EU gas markets brace for price surge on Russia gas cut EU energy ministers discuss gas price cap, emergency liquidity Europe looks set to endure a tough winter as cost of living pressure surges 20 day VWAP bands track lower - bearish longer bearish trending setup Poised above well tested but vulnerable 0.9900 Aug-Sept range support Close above 1.0076 would delay further downside Sustained 0.9900 break would target 0.9608 base in September 2002 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.2050 Hit early – trends lower awaiting new Prime Minister -0.3%, Europe braces for a price surge on latest Russia gas cut UK PM favourite Truss promises immediate action on energy Will be interesting to see if Truss's policies change if she becomes PM Bearish trending setup targets 1.1413 March 2020 base longer-term Close above 1.1672 needed to undermine downside bias 1.1413 March 2020 low initial support, 1.1519 NY close resistance 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 133.40 USD/JPY steady, JPY crosses mixed Relatively slow Asia session ahead of US Labour Day holiday USD/JPY 140.05-55 EBS, steady after push up to 140.80 Friday Retracement after good US jobs report Friday but downside limited 139.88 Friday low, low around time of jobs report release 139.90 Bias up on hawkish Fed view despite push-back in US yields Friday Total $3.6 bln 140.00 strike option expiries this week Likely to exert some gravitational pull, could work as pivot Japanese importers still in dip-buy mode, especially sub-140.00 now Japanese exporter offers trail up, especially from ahead of 141.00 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .71 Moves lower as USD gains on escalating EU energy crisis AUD/USD lower as energy crisis in Europe escalates ahead of winter EUR/USD fell over 0.50% to lead the USD broadly higher AUD/USD has traded as low as 0.6777 before bouncing to 0.6790/95 Support is at the Sept 1 low at 0.6771 and break targets trend low at 0.6682 Resistance is at 0.6868 and Friday's 0.6855 high 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC trades sub 20k again Royal Crypto Bank Launches New Online Trading Website & Platform Crypto Oasis has teamed up with the Theatre of Digital Art (TODA) to launch arte Talks A first-of-its-kind bi-monthly initiative that will bring Web3 into the mainstream BTC supported by Jul 13 low 18.9k Aug 28's 22.2k may pull BTC higher 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-5-2022"
via IFTTT

Apple Day 2022 – What to Expect?

7^th September (Wednesday) could probably be the long-awaited day for Apple enthusiasts – the company shall officially introduce its new products especially the iPhone 14 series, followed by Apple watches (series 8, Pro, SE), and possibly new Mac models, AirPods and iPads (as well as new software development environment possibly later this year or early 2023). The event can be watched via Apple TV app, online at apple.com or via YouTube. (Time: 5pm (GMT).

Being the largest company by market capitalization (over $2.5T), the performance of Apple Inc. is definitely under the spotlight, to a great degree when we all know that current macroeconomic conditions may not be friendly to the stock market.

Fig.1: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Economic Data. Source: HFM

Following Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish stance at Jackson Hole economic symposium, we have seen 315K non-farm payrolls added in the US economy last Friday. Despite being historically a weaker month for employment, the overall added jobs are 240K higher than pre-pandemic level in Feb 2020. It is worth noting that the data has also performed above expectations for five consecutive months.

Unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7% (was 3.5%) and 7.0% (was 6.7%) respectively, however we have also witnessed labor force participation rate skewed upward towards 62.4% (was 62.1%). This could imply more people wish to go back into the workforce, thus easing pressure on wage growth.  The data showed that average hourly earnings fell slightly to 0.3% (MoM) (was 0.5%), while remain unchanged from last year at 5.2%(YoY).

In conclusion, the labor market remains resilient and extremely tight. The Fed is unlikely to alter its stance, at least not in the near term. Could big companies like Apple survive this turmoil?

Fig.2: Historical Price Performance – Apple Inc. and S&P 500 SPDR. Source： barchart

Historically, the Apple share price has performed better than the S&P 500 SPDR, one of the most popular ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index. Since the Fed announced a rate hike in more than three years in March this year, APPL has displayed better tenacity towards the shock, with 6-month %change at -6.45%, versus SPY at -10.42%.

Fig.3: Reported Sales and EPS versus Analyst Forecast for Apple.Inc. Source：money.cnn

Apple Inc. is generally doing well throughout 2022, both sales and EPS were performed on par with market expectations. Nevertheless, we could also see an adverse impact the macroeconomic factors did to the company, with its sales and EPS being progressively weaker in Q2 and Q3. In the previous quarter, the company reported that its sales revenue was mainly dragged down by a slowdown in the sales of Mac ($7.3B, was $8.2B (y/y)), iPad ($7.2B, was $7.3B (y/y)), Wearables, home and accessories ($8.0B, was $8.7B (y/y)). Sales of iPhones and Services were up to $40.6B (was $39.5B (y/y)) and $19.6B (was $17.4B (y/y)), respectively.

The reporting date for Q4/2022 financial results is set on 3^rd November (Thursday). Market sentiment remains optimistic, with sales and EPS expected to hit $88.9B and $1.26, up 7.11% and 5% from the previous quarter. During the same period last year, sales and EPS of Apple Inc. were $83.4B and $1.24, respectively.

Fig.4: New-Vehicle Consideration Survey. Source：Bloomberg

Stepping into near future (probably 2025), Apple Inc aims to produce its very first fully autonomous self-driving car. Recent survey showed that Apple Car (even though it does not exist) being ranked third (26%) in terms of brand consideration, while its quality impression (24%) topped the chart among other competitors. Keeping this in mind, there should be more potential for the company.

Technical Analysis：

#Apple (AAPL.s) share price hit its lowest at $103.10 a few weeks after the company declared a 4-for-1 stock split in August 2020. Since then, the company’s share price traded upward steadily throughout year 2021. It met resistance around $178.00, then experienced a bearish technical correction from this level throughout Q2 2022 and later hit its lowest at $129.06. Coming into Q3 2022, its attempt to break $178 has failed again, finally settled at $155.55 after market close last week. From the daily chart, $158.00 (FR 38.2%) and $165.00 (FR 23.6%) serve as minor resistance. On the flip side, $152.00 (FR 50.0%) serves as a major support level. Closing below this level may indicate the bears continue extending towards $147.00 (FR 61.8%) and $139.00 (FR 78.6%).

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /511310/
via IFTTT

Market Update – September 5

• USDIndex – holds at 110.25 highs. Yields plunged after NFP and as the curve bull steepened. Asian markets struggled after Wall Street closed in negative territory following news that Russia won’t be re-opening gas deliveries to Europe via Nordstream 1 as scheduled.
• EUR – 20-year lows – tumbled back below parity, today’s low at 0.9876 as the standoff with Russia continues.
• JPY holds at 140 area.
• GBP fell to 1.1442, the weakest since March 1985.
• Stocks – US closed for Labour Day today. GER40 & UK100 are down -3% and -1% respectively this morning, with recession concerns deepening. ASX and Nikkei closed narrowly mixed. Major stock markets are posting 1-month declines from nearly -2% (TSX) to over -8% (NASDAQ).
• Oil got a boost from the jump in gas prices as traders look ahead to the OPEC+ meeting. USOIL is at $88.45 from $85.70.
• Gold – also down and within $1.50 of $1700 earlier, trades at $1707 now.
• BTC – 19.4K-20.5K.

Weekend– Gazprom announced on Friday that the main pipeline to Germany would remain closed indefinitely, against expectations of a restart on Saturday after three days of maintenance work.

Today – All eyes will be on monetary policy decisions from the ECB, BoC, RBA. Final readings for Eurozone and UK Services and Composite PMs are due today and in the UK. The Conservative Party is set to announce that Liz Truss won the leadership contest and will succeed Boris Johnson as the next Prime Minister for the UK.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD(-0.48%) found a near term support at 0.9877. MAs aligning lower, MACD lines extend southwrads, RSI 38,  H1 ATR 0.00199, Daily ATR 0.00996.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /511309/
via IFTTT

The Index S&P500 Is on the Rise!

EUR/USD has dropped to the supporting level of 0.9900. Now, it is trying to break it through. So far, the asset didn’t manage to break this level. The asset is likely to undergo correction. However, it might eventually break the level of 0.9900. So, let’s wait and see what is about to happen next.American stock index S&P500 has reached the supporting level of 3900 and the crossing point of the uptrend and technical trendline from the elder timeframe. The index could potentially pull from these lines and target the level of 4250.00.The price of Bitcoin keeps moving along the level of 20000. Hence, the asset is likely to pull from the supporting level of 19000. It might also hit the level of 20000 and head up even further. The future will tell what is about to happen to this asset.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-sp500-is-on-the-rise"
via IFTTT

The best UK shares to buy now

A professional investor tells us where he’d put his money. This week: Chris McVey, FP Octopus UK Multi Cap Income Fund, picks three exciting UK shares.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/uk-stockmarkets/605291/the-best-uk-shares-to-buy-now
via IFTTT

How excessive remote work by millennials entrepreneurs is hampering work ethic

Millennial entrepreneurs flush with cash are undermining the work ethic. That is a dangerous trend says Matthew Lynn.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/605282/how-excessive-remote-work-by-millennials-entrepreneurs-is-hampering
via IFTTT

Can energy futures tell us the future direction of energy prices?

Can energy futures tell us the future direction of energy prices? Chris Sholto Heaton breaks down why markets are just too complex to do so.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/605283/can-energy-futures-tell-us-the-future-direction-of-energy
via IFTTT

DAX INDEX FUTURES (FDAX1!), H4 Potential For Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 12999Pivot: 12758Support: 12415Preferred Case:On the H4, with price moving within a descending channel and below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 12758 where the pullback support is. Once there is downside confirmation that price has broken pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 12415 where the swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are.Alternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 12999 where the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are.Fundamentals:Since Russia's Gazprom said that a new turbine halt will further cut gas to Germany, it creates additional supply worries and we have a bearish view on the DAX index .

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dax-index-futures-fdax1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop2"
via IFTTT

FOMO Friday: FTSE Falls 5%

FTSE Falls DownAnother week comes to a close and in London the end of the summer has been marked punctually by pouring rain. However, action in markets this week has been far from soggy and with the headline data event of the week, the US NFP, still to come, there is perhaps more volatility to come. Chatting with traders ahead of that event, however, it seems that the main market move capturing attention is the more than 5% drop we’ve seen in the FTSE this week. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Risk Aversion The FTSE has been hit by two key factors this week, the first of which is the rise in global bond yields which is weighing on stocks and driving risk sentiment lower. With traders focused firmly on central bank tightening expectations, risk aversion was seen sweeping across markets this week. In the UK, record inflation in July is keeping the pressure on the BOE with traders now looking for a further rate hike at the upcoming BOE meeting this month. Following the bank’s .5% hike in August, traders are now looking for at least the same again, with some forecasting a larger .75% hike, keeping equities prices anchored lower near-term.UK Political Uncertainty The FTSE has also come under pressure this week from the growing political uncertainty ahead of next week’s leadership change in the Conservative Party. The results of the leadership contest are scheduled to be declared on September 5th, appointing a new UK PM following the departure of former, disgraced PM Boris Johnson. Current polling data suggests Liz Truss will take the victory in which case, markets are fearful of the impact of her proposed policy changes. Truss has pledged increased spending and broad tax-cuts in a bid to help support the economy. However, critics warn that her plans risk driving inflation higher, thus prompting the BOE to tighten more aggressively, which paints very clear risks for the FTSE in the coming months.Technical ViewsFTSEThe FTSE continues to correct lower within the broad, bear channel which has framed price action over the year so far. Price is currently testing below the 7213.9 level and, while below here, the focus is on a deeper push towards the 6994.2 level next, in line with bearish MACD and RSI readings.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-ftse-falls-5"
via IFTTT