Bitcoin Is on the Rise: What’s Next?

Having touched the local bottom at the supporting level of 19000, Bitcoin has pulled back and approached the resistance at the level of 22000. The asset is likely to pull from the level of 22000 and drop to the supporting level of 20000. After that, Bitcoin might try to head up again. So, let’s wait and see what is going to happen next.Silver is heading up. The asset might have to face resistance at the level of 20.70, pull back, and drop. Therefore, it might stay flat.The currency pair USD/CAD has pulled from the upper boundary of the range and dropped. The asset might gain the required support in the zone formed between the levels 1.2450 and 1.2520 and jump.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-on-the-rise-whats-next"
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Key events and reports for the week ahead

The highlight of next week's economic calendar will be the US inflation report. Economists and investors expect the downward trend that began in July to continue. If the data lives up to expectations or inflation slows faster than forecasted, the likelihood that the Fed will slow down the pace of policy tightening will increase. In general, the event will likely have a positive impact on asset prices (in particular, risk assets, cyclical currencies and gold), so the bullish sentiment that we saw on Friday may continue into the beginning of next week.The meeting of the Bank of England will take place on Thursday. After the ECB, the bar to not disappoint the market is high: the bank will have to convince investors that the tightening policy will continue, otherwise there will be an incentive to search for yield elsewhere. The market's attention will be on the distribution of votes: how many officials voted to raise the rate, how many voted to leave it at the same level. Market consensus expects the rate to remain unchanged at 1.75%.On Friday, the EU statistics authority will put out a preliminary estimate of inflation in the Eurozone for August. The data will matter as the ECB made it clear at the meeting that it allows further rate hikes. If inflation proves to be persistent (9.1% is expected, as in July), the chances that the ECB will continue to hike interest rates this year will increase, which could lead to a new leg of EURUSD strength.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/key-events-and-reports-for-the-week-ahead"
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Oil struggles to rally as economic activity eases in China

European stocks rebounded on Friday after the hawkish outcome of the ECB meeting and better-than-expected ECB economic staff projections.European Union energy ministers met on Friday to discuss how to tackle the energy crisis. The key point on the agenda was the price cap on Russian gas and oil.Rising gas prices may force some European countries heavily dependent on supplies from Russia to introduce rationing as winter approaches, threatening industrial shutdown and recession in the region.New UK Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to cap consumer electricity bills for 2 years and bail out energy companies, which could cost the country around £150bn ($290bn).Despite the large interest rate hike, the ECB meeting was a risk-on event as the regulator downplayed recession concerns hinting at further tightening in the coming months in order to curb rampant inflation.Data released on Friday showed that industrial production in France fell by 1.6% m/m in July, a sharper fall than -1.2% in the previous month.Oil prices rose on Friday, rebounding from a 8-month low, but heading for a second consecutive weekly decline as sharp monetary tightening and COVID-19 lockdowns in China dampened demand.Data released on Thursday by the US Energy Information Administration showed a significant increase in the oil inventories by 8.8 million barrels last week, more than what the American Petroleum Institute, the industry body, reported on Wednesday, raising doubts about the strength of US energy demand.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/oil-struggles-to-rally-as-economic-activity-eases-in-china"
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Why France's planned monopoly on European air travel should be grounded

The French president’s plan to create a new EU-wide airline monopoly would be a disaster for the industry, says Matthew Lynn.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605313/why-frances-planned-monopoly-on-european-air-travel-should-be-grounded
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Events to Look Out for Next Week

Central banks may have front loading the tightening cycle, but it doesn’t seem as though the ECB’s bumper 75 bp hike and mounting speculation of a super-sized Fed and BOE move has impacted the overall amount of tightening markets are expecting. In the UK, the BoE announced that the rate decision scheduled for next week has been postponed to September 22, as the nation prepares for Queen Elisabeth’s funeral. Russia has escalated the European energy crisis by failing to restore flows. PM Truss announced a series of measures mainly designed to limit the costs for consumers, but as in the EU there is also the discussion on how and if to break the link between gas prices and electricity costs.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 12 September 2022

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• Gross Domestic Product, Industrial & Manufacturing Production and Trade balance (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP contracted -0.1% q/q in the Q2 of the year, in line with our forecast and a tad less bleak than Bloomberg consensus, which predicted a contraction of -0.2% q/q. The -0.6% m/m decline in the monthly GDP number for June was sobering though and backed the BoE’s bleak outlook for the economy, which seems to be heading for a recession amid the cost of living crisis, the fallout from Brexit and political turmoil in Westminister. Data for June though showed industrial production down -0.9% m/m and construction output down -1.4% m/m, while the index of services contracted -0.5% m/m which suggests broad based risks to growth, even if the numbers were not quite as bad as feared. In July these numbers expected to worsen with industrial production at -1.3% m/m and manufacturing at -1.8% m/m.

Tuesday – 13 September 2022

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• Employment change & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included and ILO unemployment figures are expected at 5.2% (3 Mo/y) and 3.7% respectively.
• German ZEW (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The key topic for the Eurozone’s biggest and most important economy. Data is expected to show September’s ZEW economic sentiment contracting further at -59.5 from -55.3.
• Consumer Price Index (USD , GMT 12:30) – The August CPI is forecatsed at  -0.1% headline drop, alongside a 0.4% rise for the core, following July figures of zero and 0.3% respectively. CPI gasoline prices look poised to fall -10% in August. We see ongoing support for core prices from the war in Ukraine and continued global supply chain issues, with the associated disruption to global trade. As-expected August CPI figures would result in a pullback in the y/y headline rise to 8.0% from 8.5% in July, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

Wednesday – 14 September 2022

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• Consumer Price Index and Core (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Inflationarry pressure expected to continue with August inflation to rise further to 10.4% from 10.1% in July. The CPI number is now at a 40 year high and that before the energy regulator adjusts its price cap later in the year, which will see energy bills rising sharply. There was some sign of easing pressure as input price inflation eased slightly, although output price inflation continues to rise as previous cost increases feed through the product chain.  The outlook for the UK economy is looking increasingly bleak and going on confrontation course with the EU over Northern Ireland as Liz Truss is set to do, will only add to the country’s problems. There is already wide spread strike action and as disposable income is eroded public discontent is likely to growth, with many expecting another “winter of discontent”.
• Producer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The August PPI gains are seen unchanged for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following respective figures of -0.5% and 0.2% in July. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 8.8% from 9.8%, versus an all-time high of 11.6% in March. Overall, the massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains have chased outsized increases in the trade price measures. Now as prices unwind, the trade price measures are falling sharply, followed by substantial weakness in PPI and CPI.
• Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – GDP for Q2 is expected higher at 0.8% q/q from -0.2% q/q.

Thursday – 15 September 2022

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• Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a positive employment report once again, with 50k jobs in August while unemployment anticipated to remain steady at 3.4%.
• Retail Sales and Phily Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – August Retail sales are expected flat for the headline and the ex-auto measure, after July figures of unchanged and 0.4% respectively. An August pullback in prices will depress nominal sales, and we expect a -10% decrease for the CPI gasoline index that will weigh on gasoline sales in particular. The Philly Fed index is expected to fall to -1.0 after bouncing to 6.2 in August, versus a 48-year high of 50.2 in April of 2021. The various producer sentiment measures have moderated through 2022 from remarkably lofty peaks for most measures last November, with readings for some measures in contraction territory, though with most of the component indexes still at positive levels. Producers are facing big headwinds from soaring interest rates and moderating economic growth, but have benefited from higher prices despite rising input costs, and the need to rebuild inventories into 2022 after stimulus-induced 2021 sales surge.

Friday – 09 September 2022

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• Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Headline Chinese retail sales for August is expected to have increase to 4% y/y from 2.7% y/y.
• Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales and core for August are expected to have detoriate further to -0.6% m/m and -0.7% m/m respectively.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /513161/
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Corn FUTURES (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type : Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance : 686'6 Pivot: 673'6 Support : 654'4 Preferred Case: On the H4, with there's a bearish divergence of price and MACD , and there's potential double top pattern, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from the pivot at 673'6, where the 61.8% fibonacci projection is to the take profit at 654'4, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and neckline of "double top" pattern. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 688'6 where the swing high is. Fundamentals: No Major News

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/corn-futures-zc1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop9"
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Market Spotlight: EUR Rallies on .75% ECB Hike & Hawkish Guidance

ECB Hikes AgainThe Euro has been firmly bid today on the back of the September ECB meeting yesterday. The meeting saw the bank hiking by .75%, as expected, lifting rates to 1.25%. The hike, which was the largest by the ECB in more than half a century, was accompanied by a firmly hawkish set of guidance from the bank. The ECB forecast more rate hikes as likely this year, in line with its view that inflation will persist for longer at higher levels owing largely to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the growing energy price crisis gripping the eurozone. Looking ahead, the bank upgraded its inflation forecasts with eurozone CPI now expected to average 8.1% this year and 5.5% next year.Explaining the move, ECB chief Lagarde said: “We have a goal, we have a mission. We have incredibly high inflation numbers, we are not on target in our forecast and we have to take action. What we know is that we want to get that 2% medium-term target and we will take the necessary steps along the way in order to get there. We think that it will take several meetings to get there.”Technical ViewsEURUSDWhile the pair has been trading lower within a well-defined bear channel this year, the market has recently stalled along support at the .9885 level. With strong bullish divergence on momentum studies, bulls are now looking for a break of the channel top and the 1.0346 level to put the focus on a test of 1.0775 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-eur-rallies-on-75-ecb-hike-and-hawkish-guidance"
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FOMO Friday: CADJPY Soars On BOC Hike & Risk Flows

Another week comes to a close in financial markets and what a week it’s been. We’ve seen three major central bank meetings, each delivering fresh rate hikes in the G10, a change of leadership in the UK as well as comments from Fed chairman Powell. In terms of moves to focus on, its been rich pickings. However, the move that seems to be capturing most attention ahead of the weekend is the near 4% rally in CADJPY. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?BOC Hikes & Signals More Likely ComingThere have been two clear drivers behind through roughly 350 pip rally we’ve seen in CADJPY this week. The first factor propelling the pair higher was the September BOC meeting on Wednesday. The BOC was seen hiking rates by a further .75% along with signalling the likely need to raise rates further over the remainder of the year. Expectations ahead of the meeting were split with some players looking for the bank to use this meeting as a chance to signal a pause in tightening. However, along with hiking rates to their highest level since 2008, the bank signalled that further hikes will likely be necessary as it continues to battle inflation. With the BOJ firmly committed to maintaining an easing presence in markets, this latest increase from the BOC has further widened the monetary policy divergence between the two central banks, working in CAD’s favour.JPY Weakens Amidst Risk-On FlowsThe second factor working in favour of a higher CADJPY this week is the rebound in risk appetite. With the Dollar dropping midweek, risk markets have seen strong recoveries across the board with equities and commodities benefiting from lower USD pricing. The rebound in oil off the week’s lows has particularly helped CAD. Moreover, the sharp drop in JPY has been the bigger consequence of current market themes. With JPY safe-haven demand disappearing across the back-end of the week, CADJPY has had ample room to move higher and looks likely to remain supported near-term while the current moves continue.Technical ViewsCADJPYThe rally in CADJPY this week has seen price breaking above the prior 2022 highs around 107.19 and trading up as high as 109.70. Th move is currently stalled here. However, with both MACD and RSI bullish, while price holds above the former 2022 highs, the focus is on a further move higher towards 113.22 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-cadjpy-soars-on-boc-hike-and-risk-flows"
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Investment Bank Outlook 09-09-2022

Credit AgricoleStagflation Becoming A Major ThemeStagflation has become a major theme for FX markets. The extent of stagflation an economy is experiencing can be measured by the misery index (the sum of their inflation and unemployment rates). This index also measures how much damage central banks will have to inflict to get inflation back under control. Indeed, the YTD performance of G10 currencies tends to be inversely related to their misery index.Fear of stagflation is part of what is ruining the EUR and GBP. While the ECB tried bravely to support the EUR this week, its weak growth forecasts and Europe’s energy crisis hardly make a credible argument for currency strength. And while Prime Minister Liz Truss’ fiscal stimulus pledges can boost the economic outlook, the UK economy suffers from similar problems to the Eurozone, plus Brexit-related supply shortages. Moreover, the spending plans of the UK government have threatened to upend the gilt market at a time when the country’s external imbalances are deteriorating. In turn, this can complicate the BoE’s own gilt sales plans that are set to start this month with any potential delays likely to keep UK real yields deeply negative. In turn, this could offset the positive GBP impact from any aggressive BoE rate hike next week.The standout exceptions to the misery rule are the USD and JPY. The US’s misery index is mid-range in the G10, but the USD’s performance has been outstanding. The USD’s appeal as the safe port in any storm helps explain this. Japan’s misery index is the lowest in the G10, yet the JPY’s performance is the worst in the G10. Even Japan’s policymakers are beginning complain about the pace of the JPY’s slide. Without a change in tack by the BoJ, any FX intervention would at best only slow the JPY’s depreciation.Several G10 countries will update their misery indexes this week with inflation readings in the Eurozone, Switzerland, the UK and most importantly the US. Strong inflation readings may not be positives for the EUR and GBP as they could further aggravate stagflation concerns. A high US inflation number could trigger risk-off trading and higher UST yields and be positive for the USD. US retail sales data will be a gauge of how strong growth remains despite higher rates and living costs. Australia’s unemployment rate will update its misery index; the main constraint on job creation remains the availability of workers.EURThe war in Ukraine has fanned stagflation headwinds in the Eurozone and should further have lasting consequences for the Eurozone’s international competitiveness, external position, relative real yields and commodity terms of trade. The ECB has embarked on policy normalisation in the face of these risks. The vulnerability of the Eurozone periphery in the face of diminishing monetary support further complicates its task. That said, we think that the ECB should ultimately be able to contain spikes in Eurozone credit risks. This, coupled with the removal of ECB negative rates, should make the EUR a more attractive safe-haven currency from here and help it benefit from repatriation of funds held abroad back into the Eurozone. Many negatives seem to be in the price of undervalued and oversold EUR/USD and the pair could stabilise close to recent lows in the coming months.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/investment-bank-outlook-09-09-2022"
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The FRA40 under pressure!

As far as education is concerned, France is at the bottom according to the last international and national rankings. Today’s 4th graders have the level of 5th graders of 25 years ago. France ranks 18th: its gross results first of all are just on average for OECD countries (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).

And from an economic point of view?

Times are going to be even tougher for the economy, according to data published Thursday by French customs. France’s trade deficit continues to deteriorate and amounted to 14.54 billion euros at the end of July. France registered a record 129.8-billion-euro (129 billion U.S. dollars) trade deficit in the rolling 12 months to July, the country’s Directorate-General of Customs and Indirect Taxes said here on Thursday.

This deterioration in the external balance sheet was fueled by the weight of the energy bill, which deteriorated by 0.6 billion over one month. Excluding energy, the balance was almost stable in July, according to Customs.

This Wednesday, INSEE revised down its growth estimates for the end of the year. GDP should only increase by 0.2% in the third quarter against 0.3% still expected in June. Activity was 0.5% between April and June, and without further geopolitical or economic crises growth should reach 2.6% at the end of 2022, more than the 2.3% forecast for the whole year.

As for 2023, GDP would be limited to 0.2%, which suggests a serious brake on the French economy.

Also, according to INSEE, manufacturing production should contract in the fall due to high levels of finished product inventory and inflation also remains at historically high levels.

This gloomy picture presents a France in decline, moribund but various studies show that this beautiful country enjoys in 2022 a very enviable influence, it is the seventh economic power in the world according to the International Monetary Fund, a remarkable performance for a country which represents less than 1% of the world’s population. In terms of innovation, France ranks fifth, according to the European Patent Office. It is also the sixth largest trading power, according to the World Trade Organization ranking.

Data that allows us to put things into perspective and glimpse interesting prospects for CAC40 companies.

Below we can observe the struggle undertaken by the FRA40 (CAC40) which is trying to stay above its February 2020 high around 6109 Euros. It is highly likely that a major movement will occur following the intervention of the ECB.

Technical analysis:

From a technical point of view, the FRA40 is currently in a range between its lowest at 5749 and its highest at 6635 euros and is desperately trying to stay above 6000 points. The price is under its cloud, under its Kijun (green line) and under pressure from its Chikou Span (Yellow line). The lagging span managed to cross the set from these 3 indicators which means that it is currently in a bearish momentum. The next target is at 5749 euros. In a particular context following the ECB’s decision, the price could also turn around. In this case we could first go for the Kijun at 6304 then 6635.4 euros. (see below).

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /512935/
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Market Update – September 9 – USD Cools, Yen, Stocks & BTC Rally

• USDIndex – Slumps as YEN & EUR spike. A brief rally back to 110.00, faded following ECB’s hawkish 75bp hike and similarly Hawkish comments from both Lagarde and Powell. Trades at 108.90. Comments from Japanese officials lifts the YEN and weak Chinese inflation data exposes demand weakness.
• EUR – ECB moved by 75bp and suggested more significant hikes to come. EUR rallied back to through Parity and trades at 1.0065 now. 
• JPY having rejected 145.00, combined comments from Suzuki, Matsuno & Kuroda lifts the YEN and the pair trade at 142.90.  
• GBP 1.1500 support held yesterday and a follow through move today takes Cable to 1.1600 resistance. 
• Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 4006) FUTS trade at 4011. Asian stock markets have rallied, and European FUTS are little changed, the FTSE100 up 0.3%.

• USOil recovered from $81.40 lows to $83.50 now on chatter of more supply issues. 20-day moving average sits at $90.00.
• Gold – also rallied to $1725 and holds the key $1700 at $1721 now.
• BTC – rallied higher as the ETH merge (offering  a 99.9% reduction in power consumption!!). Spiked from $18.k on Wednesday to $20.6k now.

Overnight & Today – Canadian jobs report, EU energy meeting, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Evans, Waller & George.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.31%). Continues to decline, yesterday breaking under 1.1300 to 1.1220 lows which are being re-tested now. MAs aligning lower,  MACD histogram negative & signal line neutral, RSI 39.90,  H1 ATR 0.00137, Daily ATR 0.00814.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /513131/
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ETHUSD, H4 | Potential Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish BreakoutKey Levels:Resistance: 1723.41 Pivot: 1649.12 Support: 1559.9Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to pivot at 1649.12 where the pullback resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 1723.41 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.Alternative Scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 1559.9 where the overlap support is.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/ethusd-h4-or-potential-bullish-rise9"
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Buy stocks with wide moats to protect your profits

Companies with wide "moats" – attributes that give them an enduring competitive advantage – tend to thrive over the long term. Dr Mike Tubbs explains how to identify stock with wide moats and how to invest in them.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605308/buy-stocks-with-wide-moats-to-protect-your-profits
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Beat the cost of living crisis – go on holiday

As inflation rages, energy bills soar and the pound tanks, what’s a good way to save money this winter? Go on holiday, says Merryn Somerset Webb.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/605307/beat-the-cost-of-living-crisis-time-to-go-on-holiday
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