Last chance to beat the Amazon Prime price rise

The price of an Amazon Prime subscription is going up. Here's how you can reduce the cost.

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The best way to invest in natural gas

David Stevenson looks at the best way to invest in natural gas as the demand for the commodity surges.

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Ways of Inflation are Inscrutable

The US inflation report came as a big surprise to many investors as despite solid signals for a drop below 8% (decline in new car sales, falling gasoline prices), headline inflation was quite persistent, inching lower marginally to 8.3%. Core inflation accelerated more than expected - from 5.9% to 6.3%, beating the forecast of 6.1%. The report came as a shock to the market, with expectations of the Fed terminal rate (where the tightening cycle is expected to end) revised up by 25 bp to 4.3%. A pronounced reaction took place in forex and the stock market: the main US stock indices fell by 4-5%, the capitalization of Nasdaq, where assets are the closest substitutes for Treasuries in terms of duration (time-weighted cash flow for the asset), plunged the most. The index erased almost 6%.The situation is increasingly reminiscent of the 1980s, when high inflation raged in the United States and the then head of the Fed, Volker, raised the rate to 15%, sending economy into recession. Of course, it is now difficult to imagine that the Fed rate could ever be above 10%, nevertheless, the impact of the CPI report on expectations for the Fed terminal rate was significant. The two-year Treasury yield rose to 3.8%, while the ten-year Treasury yield advanced to 3.45%. These are the new yearly highs:The idea that the Fed may be forced to remove monetary support at a more aggressive pace reinforces expectations that the US economy will face faster deceleration in growth rate, with growth risks spilling over to weaker economies as well. Rising dollar borrowing costs create downside risks for developing countries' sovereign debt. Based on this, the forecast for developing currencies becomes less favorable - investors may begin to reduce exposure to EM sovereign debt in their portfolios with outflows putting pressure on national currencies.One of the signs of the late phase in expansion - the yield curve inversion (the spread between the yields of 10 and 2-year Treasury bonds) reached a new extreme point after the release of CPI. The spread was down to -34 bp. The movement of the spread deep into the negative zone is usually accompanied by a strong dollar, as the demand of investors for the US currency as a haven asset increases.The release of the CPI made it virtually indisputable that the Fed will raise rates by 75bp in September. The market has even begun to price in an outcome where the Fed will raise rates by 100 bp! The chances of this outcome are now 36%:Investors will also be on the lookout for clues as to how the pace of hikes will change at the meeting following the September decision. It is quite possible that the pace of tightening will remain at the current level of 75 bp.Other central banks may have to work hard to outpace the Fed in terms of tightening and make local fixed-income assets more attractive to foreign investors. However, considering growth constraints in other economies this looks unlikely. This idea may be the key behind a potential fresh leg of dollar rally. Therefore, it is highly likely that in the near future we will see a retest of 110 points on the dollar index (DXY):

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Japan's stockmarket gets a boost from the weak yen

Japan’s stockmarket has outperformed so far this year, with corporate profits at their highest since 1954 and a weak yen inflating overseas earnings.

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Silver – the cheap precious metal set for a multi-week rally

Silver is full of potential – but it is a risky investment. Right now, however, it’s cheap and the outlook is positive. Dominic Frisby explains why.

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Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!), H4 Potential For Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance: 21735Pivot: 20000Support: 18330Preferred Case:On the H4, price has pulled back but we're looking for a reversal at 20000 where the 61.8% retracement and 78.6% projection sits. If price still respects the ichimoku as well as the bullish breakout, it should bring price to 21735 where the previous swing high sitsAlternative Scenario:Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 18330 where the previous swing low sitsFundamentals:Short term drop due to August US CPI data reflecting higher data than forecasted causing USD to strengthen

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/micro-bitcoin-futures-mbt1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise140"
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Investment Bank Outlook 14-09-2022

BNY MellonAPAC Exports Shock ComingMacro data from APAC over the past week showed continued deterioration; bright spots were scarce. While China's August credit data appeared strong on a headline basis – M2 credit growth accelerated further, to 12.2%, and aggregate financing and loans by financial institutions increased by CNY 2430bn and CNY 1250bn, respectively – details suggested the ongoing dilemma of “too much money, too little demand”. Aggregate financing (AF) credit growth, for example, declined further, to 10.5% y/y. This is after accounting for the surprise surge in off-balance-sheet shadow banking activities in entrusted loans and undiscounted banker acceptances, which had been on a deliberate structural decline since 2018. Entrusted loans increased CNY 176bn, the single largest monthly increase since March 2017, while undiscounted bankers acceptances grew by CNY 349bn (see chart). Note that the latter was previously linked to arbitrage manoeuvring.As we await the latest house price releases for August, medium- to long-term household loans, typically seen as a proxy for mortgages, continued to point to a sluggish recovery in the sector. Households' medium- to long-term loans in August increased by CNY 266bn, just above the CNY 244bn average for the first seven months of the year. At 7.3% y/y, this is the slowest reading since records began in 2015. Tourism revenue declined by 22.8% over the mid-Autumn festival this year compared to a year ago. China's manufacturing PMI registered in the contraction zone for a second consecutive month in August. And exports in August grew just 7.1% y/y, down from 18.0% y/y in July.Given the weakening growth outlook ahead of the Communist Party's congress beginning on Oct. 16, China is likely to maintain its easing stance, while also ensuring the implementation of the various policy measures announced to stabilise economic growth, employment and prices, including efforts to help developers to finish stalled housing projects.The growth slowdown in China and the cyclical slowdown of the technology sector do not bode well for key regional exports. Based on the latest available (August) data, South Korea exports resumed their downtrend to 6.6% y/y, with semiconductor exports slowing to 7.8% y/y. Taiwan exports collapsed to 2% y/y from 14.2% y/y in July. Exports slowed in the Philippines, India and Thailand, as well. By contrast, Indonesia and Malaysia posted strong double-digit exports in July, supported by mining and manufacturing.The slowdown of exports coupled with domestic economies failing to revive also bodes poorly for trade balances. Regional net oil importing countries such as South Korea, Thailand, India, and the Philippines face additional stress from higher import costs.

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Daily Market Outlook, September 14, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, September 14, 2022 Overnight Headlines Bank Of Japan Conducts Rate Check On FX, Nikkei Says Asia Stocks Slump Following Wall Street Rout On Strong Inflation Goldman Says Get Ready For Fresh Cross-Asset Pain On Real Rates Dollar-Yen Verbal Intervention Returns With Currency Pair Near 145 BoJ Boosts Bond Buying Again As Yields Approach Its Policy Limit Japan Sept Factory Mood Tanks On Cost Pressure - RTRS Tankan Japan's Core Machinery Orders Extended Gains In July China Sets Yuan Fix At Strongest Bias On Record To Lift Currency China’s Yuan To Get Support From Economy, Trade Surplus - Paper China's Shadow Bank Lending Shows Biggest Jump Since 2017 France Cuts 2023 Growth Forecast 1% Citing ‘Tense’ Backdrop Dollar Has Biggest Daily Pct Gain Since 2020 After Unexpected Rise Treasury 5y Yield Rises To Highest Since 2008, Tops June Peak Nomura Calls For 100bps Fed Hike In Sept As Speculation Rises Oil Steadies As US Restocking Plan Counters Roaring Inflation Biden Officials Weigh Buying Oil At Around $80 To Refill Reserves JPMorgan Sees Oil Prices Climbing As Alternatives Fall Short Apple To Use TSMC's next 3-NM Chip Tech In iPhones, Macs Next YearThe Day Ahead Asian equities and bond markets fell sharply after the negative closes in Europe and on Wall Street following the release of US inflation data. The annual rate of US headline CPI fell by less than expected in August to 8.3%. Moreover, core inflation continued to climb and rose more than expected to 6.3%, led by stronger domestic services inflation. The outcome cemented market expectations for another 75bp increase in interest rates by the Fed next week, with speculation that a 100bp hike could be in play. UK August CPI inflation data released earlier this morning showed the headline annual rate easing to 9.9% from 10.1% in July. The outcome was slightly weaker than expected and was the first moderation in nearly a year. Core inflation edged up to 6.3% from 6.2% as we predicted but was slightly above market expectations. The fall in headline inflation was driven by lower petrol prices which offset rises in other components such as food and clothing & footwear. Looking ahead, the UK government’s energy price guarantee announcement for households means that the rise in energy bills in Q4 will be significantly lower than previously anticipated, and the peak in inflation will be lower, probably not much higher than the current level. On the other hand, the support to household incomes could boost demand and domestic inflationary pressures further out. For the rest of the day, UK house price and Eurozone industrial production figures are likely to attract limited attention. Potential downside risks to the consensus forecast for Eurozone industrial production for July (-1.0%m/m) and expect a drop closer to 2%, suggesting a weak start for industrial activity in Q3. There may be some focus on the European Commission with reports that it will announce plans to tackle the energy crisis, including measures to curb consumption and a windfall tax on energy surplus profits. Reports suggest, however, that mooted price caps on imported gas may not be put forward at this point due to disagreements among member states. US producer price data are due and will provide an indication of pipeline inflationary pressures. The year-on-year rate is expected to fall further partly reflecting lower energy prices. For Fed policymakers, however, yesterday’s CPI inflation report will not have allayed concerns that domestic inflationary pressures are continuing to build.FX Options Expiring 10am New York Cut EUR/USD: 0.9920-30 (1.47BLN), 0.9950 (670M), 1.0000 (1.92BLN) 1.0020-25 (588M) USD/JPY: 144.60-70 (410M) EUR/CHF: 0.9400 (492M), 0.9650 (1.05BLN) GBP/USD: 1.1500 (317M), 1.1515 (504M), 1.1700 (407M) AUD/USD: 0.6750 (261M), 0.6800 (425M), 0.6900-05 (729M) USD/CAD: 1.3125-35 (575M), 1.3175-85 (390M)Technical & Trade ViewsEURUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.0250 Aggressive Fed expectations weigh into U.S. PP Expectations of an aggressive Fed, FEDWATCH prices Sept 21 100pt hike at 37% U.S. PPI today and retail sales Thursday are event risk for the EUR/USD Ukraine on back burner for markets, but potential major factor 20 day VWAP bands contract - mixed signals favour a range September 0.9864-1.0198 range appears a viable range into Fed on Sept 21 Rejection of 1.0131 Upper VWAP and close below 1.0002 is bearish 0.9950 469 mln 1.0000 1.808 BLN are the close strikes on Wednesday 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearishGBPUSD Bias: Bearish below 1.19 Bearish outside day reversal pattern UK inflation come sin slightly below forecast, GBP dips Off 0.1% after closing down 1.6%, as the USD rebounded after strong U.S. CPI Techs: slump left a bearish outside day and mixed daily momentum studies 20 day VWAP contract Downside bias returns, after Tuesday's failure at the 1.1673 1.1407 September low then 1.1355 lower 20 day VWAP band are initial support 1.1673, then NY 1.1738 high first resistance 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above 139 USD/JPY attempts up rebuffed Stronger MoF/Japan govt talk threatening intervention sets market tone early Defense of option barriers at 145.00 cited, tick above 144.99 high 9/7 Japanese exporter offers also noted up top, importers from @144.00 Specs eyeing test of 145.00 soon however on talk Fed maybe more hawkish US yields buoyant but off early Asia highs, Tsy 2s @3.775%, high 3.805% Smattering of option expiries 144.49-83 today, total $695 mln Asia risk off post-Wall St crash, Nikkei -2.2% @27,994, E-Minis +0.2% @3959 JPY crosses mixed, some off hard from recent highs, some still buoyant 20 Day VWAP is bullish, 5 Day bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .70 Muted bounce – markets slide, USD to remain fi Up 0.1% in a quiet morning - bargain hunting into the 2.25% fall yesterday, Tuesday's risk rout after strong U.S. CPI fuelled Fed hike expectations Hard to see the USD falling far ahead of the September 21st rate decision Asian stocks hit hard, Nikkei -2.1%, AsiaxJP stocks -1.9% and ASX 200 -2.6% 0.6682 July and 2022 base initial supports 0.6785/91, then 0.6845 are first resistance 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearishBTCUSD Bias: Bearish below 25.3K BTC recovers above 20k after US CPI – induced risk rout BTC rises 0.7% to 20,309 after falling to 19,862 Might stay above 20k support, avoid bearish signal Wed close below 19,360 cues VWAP downtrend channel Risk rout triggered by US CPI data abates in Asia Asia stocks down by significantly less than Wall St ETH merge expected Thursday; may attract new investors But impact of the energy-saving move mostly priced in 20 Day VWAP is bearish, 5 Day bearish

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Market Update – September 14 – Inflation IS Sticky – Risk Off

• USDIndex – Exploded higher (to110)ending a 4 day dip. US CPI much hotter than expected.  Fed Funds Futures – a 34% chance of 100bp – from 0% this time yesterday. The inflation may still have peaked but it is NOT receding as quickly as some expected,  Inflation is ALWAYS sticky and takes often longer to get under control.

• EUR – Trades at 0.9980 now from a test of 0.9950 yesterday, 1.0000 resistance.
• JPY BOJ apparently conducting rate checks ahead of intervention. The pair hit 145.00 yesterday from 142.00 and trades at 143.75 now following the BOJ chatter.
• GBP traded over 1.1700 yesterday ahead of the US data,  but tanked under 1.1500 to 1.1485 and holds at 1.1500 now.  
• Stocks US stocks had their worst day since June 2020 (S&P500 -4.32% 177pts  3932) FUTS trade at 3940. NASDAQ worst performer (-5.16%)  Asian stock markets down over -2.5%, with European FUTS showing some resilience (-0.4%).

• USOil topped at $89.00 again on Tuesday, crashing to the key $85.00 level before recovering to $87.00 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
• Gold – also tested lower under $1700 from $1730 and holds at $1700 now.
• BTC – slumped from $22.7 highs to $19.8k and holds at $20.2k now.

Overnight & Today – UK inflation a tick lighter at 9.9% vs 10.0% & 10.1% last month, US PPI, New Zealand GDP, Speeches from European Commission State of Union Address & ECB’s Lane.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.87%) The BOJ gossip and risk off mood has lifted safe haven YEN. Collapsed under 98.00, 97.00 & 96.50. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 20.85 & OB, H1 ATR 0.241, Daily ATR 0.972.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Markets Brace for Bullish CPI but Room for the Risk Rally is Limited

The dollar retreat eased pressure on oil prices as Brent price flirted with $95/bbl level on Monday. Despite the bounce and momentum that may drive prices higher, there are clear bearish risks for the market. The key among these is China's "Zero Covid" policy, which has been creating demand shocks, driving up price volatility.The latest data on US strategic oil reserves showed that storage facilities were empty by 8.4 million barrels last week to 434.1 million barrels. This is the lowest stock level since 1984. The current plan to use reserves to smooth impact of energy price shocks will run until the end of October, then the question of extending the plan will arise, which the market will probably be watching closely. Gasoline and utility prices have already shown how they can accelerate headline inflation, thereby having a hand on shaping the Fed policy.Europe, on the other hand, continues to develop a plan for interventions in the energy market and easing of imbalances. It will include energy rationing, a windfall tax on energy companies, utility bill offsets for individual consumers, and cheap lending facilities for vulnerable companies. The document is expected to be made public at the end of September and expectations that the EU will be able to demonstrate an effective reduction in dependence on energy imports from Russia may now act as a support factor for the Euro, as well as risk assets denominated in this currency.The technical picture for oil indicates rising odds the price will retest the resistance at $100 per barrel on Brent. To do this, the price must rise and consolidate above the key trend line shown in the chart below:The dollar continues to be under pressure ahead of the CPI release, while equities show a fairly confident growth. The S&P 500 posted its best four-day performance since June. The inflation report is expected to point to a slowdown in headline price growth and an acceleration in core inflation, which does not include prices for food, fuel and certain other commodities that fluctuate significantly from month to month. The market is also positively reassessing the risks of the energy crisis for the EU economy, which was triggered by the ECB's optimistic forecasts for this and next year, published at the last meeting. The regulator ruled out a recession next year, predicting a modest 0.9% economic growth, which came as a big surprise.The highlight of the economic calendar next week will be the Fed meeting, and officials cannot comment on the week preceding it, so the markets will have to assess the impact of CPI on interest rate path and QT with officials’ clues. However, it is useful to remember, for example, Bullard's statement that a good CPI report will probably not affect the outcome of the September FOMC meeting. An equally important source of policy-influencing data for the Fed - household inflation expectations – made another step in the desired direction, according to the report on Monday. One-year inflation expectations slowed in August to 5.75% (6.2% in July), three-year inflation expectations fell to a two-year low of 2.8% from 3.2% in July:The futures market estimates the probability of a rate hike of 75 bp in 93%, the probability of a smaller increase (50 bp) is only 7%.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/markets-brace-for-bullish-cpi-but-room-for-the-risk-rally-is-limited"
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The best offers for switching banks

Here are the best offers for switching banks on the market today for savers looking for the best opportunities for free cash.

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Market Spotlight: Pressure On BOE As UK Wages Rise Again & Unemployment Falls

UK Wages Rise As Unemployment Falls The latest UK labour market data released today has further increased expectations of aggressive tightening action from the BOE. The unemployment rate was seen falling back to 3.6% in the three months to July, marking the lowest level of unemployment in the UK in almost 50 years. Additionally, wages growth was seen rising to 5.5% over the same period marking an increase from the prior 5.1% reading. With labour market tightness increasing and wages rising, inflationary pressures look deeply entrenched, increasing the need for the BOE to take further action.GBP is rallying on the back of the data as traders position ahead of the BOE. Before the rate decision on Thursday, however, we have UK CPI due tomorrow. Market forecasts are for an unchanged reading of 10.1%. However, given the labour market data we’ve seen, upside risks are clearly there and if we see a further CPI upside surprise tomorrow, GBP is likely to trade higher still.Technical ViewsGBPUSDGBPUSD is now testing above the bear channel top once again and is also challenging the 1.1764 level. With both MACD and RSI bullish here, if bulls can break back above this level, there is room for a fuller recovery towards the 1.2195 level. This is especially true is today’s US CPI release undershoots forecasts, weighing on USD near-term.

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The bull market in fossil fuels remains intact – here’s how to invest

The bull market in fossil fuels and wider commodities has paused. But there is still plenty of scope for investors to profit, says Merryn Somerset Webb.

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COMPASS Pathways: the biotech aiming to beat depression with magic mushrooms

Biotech company COMPASS Pathways has produced a drug to treat depression based on the psychedelic substance found in magic mushrooms. Bruce Packard assesses the stock's potential for investors.

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