3 quality value stocks to buy

The top stocks to buy now, according to AVI Global Trust’s Joe Bauernfreund.

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USA30: Between Inflation and Earnings Reports

Due to continued market anxiety, the USA30 has been in a strong downward trend over the past few days. The majority of indices including the VIX Index, put and call options and market momentum are at a very high level of fear.

When the “fear and greed” VIX Index enters the extreme fear zone, the Dow Jones often drops. Investors are worried about economic conditions, the overly strong US Dollar and earnings reports. Thursday’s American inflation report and quarterly earnings will be the main drivers for the USA30.

Despite the fact that petrol prices fell in September, markets expect that the national inflation rate will remain high. At the same time, major financial institutions including Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will this week release their quarterly results.

This year, most of the Dow Jones components have been losing money. Companies such as Intel, Nike, Salesforce, Disney and 3M were among the worst performers. All of these stocks have lost more than 40% in value.

The USA30 has been trading in a tight range all week, below the 29,647 support which is close to the pre-pandemic high of 29,583. The USA30 has lost more than -14% from its August peak and lost more than -20% from its historical peak earlier in the year. Higher inflation reports could pressure the index to test the 50%FR retracement level around 27,560 or about 5% off the current price. Meanwhile, a near-term rebound will have to surpass the minor resistance of 30,454, otherwise the bears’ dominance will remain in place. The technical indicators all validate a downside move.

USA30, Daily

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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A property fund to buy now

Listed real-estate companies and commercial property funds such as TR Property offer a buying opportunity, says Max King.

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Market Update – October 13 – FOMC Minutes Remain Hawkish – CPI Today

• USDIndex – Held 113.00 yesterday and again tested 113.44. Yields cooled from recent highs. (US 10yr at 3.902%). US PPI was hotter than expected (0.4% vs 0.2% & -0.1% prior). FOMC Mins. less Hawkish than many anticipated but far from indicating a pivot anytime soon. “participants judged that a softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices.” and “emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.” 
• The UK’s new  fiscal policy remains squarely under threat and the BOE’s Bond-Buying, beyond Friday is still being questioned despite BOE denials. Sterling recovered yesterday but Gilts remain very fragile. US Stocks closed flat, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.13%) & European FUTS also flat.
• EUR – rotates through  0.9700, up from 0.9670 lows but unable to hold over 0.9720. 
• JPY – rallied through 146.00 to new 24-year highs day within a few pips of 147.00. 146.85 now.  
• GBP – Sterling rallied from a new 11-day low at 1.0923 over 1.1000 to 1.1075. Immense pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts or face a major rebellion.
• Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Wednesday and closed down US500 -033%, -11.81 at 3577. MRNA +8.28%, PEPSI +4.18%, VLO +5.02%. US500 FUTS trades at 3586 now. 

• USOil – declined again on global recession worries into $86.25, back to $87.15 now.
• Gold – remained range bound between $1665 support zone and $1675. Trades at $1668 now but remains pressured.
• BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to $18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now.

Today – German HICP confirmed at  record 10.9%  US CPI, US DoE, IEA OMR,  Speeches from ECB’s de Guindos & BoE’s Mann.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.30%) rallied from sub 160.00 lows yesterday to 163.25 highs today, before declining into 162.50. MAs declining now,  MACD histogram & signal line positive but starting to decline,  RSI 54.40 & declining, H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 3.201. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Bank of England to end gilt support – how safe is your pension?

Is your pension safe? We look at what will happen when the Bank of England ends it gilt-buying support and the impact on markets

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The smart money is buying physical gold – should you join them?

The gold price remains depressed, but demand for physical gold has never been higher. Dominic Frisby explains what’s going on in the gold bullion market.

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LVMH: French luxury remains strong during crisis

The world’s leading luxury goods company LVMH, owner of the Hermès, Louis Vuitton and Dior brands, has demonstrated its strength by publishing a Q3 turnover of 19.76 billion euros, up 19% year-on-year, compared to the 19.03 billion anticipated by the consensus, despite the slowdown in the global economy and rising inflation.

LVMH said: “Despite an uncertain geopolitical and economic environment, the group is confident that current growth will continue and will maintain a policy of cost control and selective investments.”

The group has benefited from the end of the numerous lockdowns in China due to its Zero Covid policy but also the rise in the value of the Dollar (US citizens benefiting from the strength of the Greenback). The firm said: “Europe, the United States and Japan, which have seen strong growth since the beginning of the year, are benefiting from solid demand from local customers and the recovery in international travel. Asia (including China) is seeing less growth in the first nine months of 2022 although the last quarter is improving thanks to the partial easing of health restrictions.”

Jean-Jacques Guiony, chief financial officer at LVMH said, “In China, Louis Vuitton saw stable sales compared to the same period in 2021. We expect this market to rebound as soon as all health restrictions are lifted” and added “luxury is not a sector that is insensitive to the economic situation but our customers react more to shocks than to variations in gross domestic product“.

The fashion and leather goods division, which includes Christian Dior and Louis Vuitton, grew by 24% in the first nine months of the year, with LVMH’s turnover at 56.5 billion euros, up 20% on a like-for-like basis.

Source: www.zonebourse.com

Technical Analysis

LVMH is currently trading at $619, below its Kijun cloud (green line) and Chikou Span (yellow line), indicating a downward trend. The Lagging Span (white line) is below its peers, but at the same time has refused to cross the cloud, indicating a possible reversal of the trend. If it does, the price could move towards its Kijun at $631.66; on the other hand, it could test its first support at $593.98 and then the second at $584.68.

LVMH Group financial release

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Don’t write off PayPal shares just yet

PayPal shares have swooned but the company remains a key player in a dynamic sector

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Market Update – October 12 – London still the centre of the storm

• USDIndex – Dipped to 112.50 yesterday before reversing to 113.40, & 113.00 now. The UK’s new  fiscal policy remains squarely under threat as BOE’s Bailey reiterated that the BOE “will be out be of the market by the end of the week”. However FT report this morning that the BoE signalled privately to bankers it may extend Bond-Buying, after the weekend. Sterling pressured and Gilts remain fragile. US Stocks (NASDAQ -1.10%) closed down again, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.04%) & European FUTS lower. Biden claims there will be no US recession, doubts Putin will use the nuclear option and that there needs to be a re-evaluation of Saudi relationship.
• EUR – trades over 0.9700 at 0.9725 from 0.9670 lows and 0.9770 highs yesterday.  
• JPY – rallied through 146.00 today beyond “BOJ intervention” levels of September 20-22. Traded to 146.38 today. 
• GBP – Sterling rallied and then reversed on Bailey comments to 1.0923 a new 10-day low, but retook 1.1000 following rallied on FT article. Pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng showing no signs of waning, more possible political U-turns.
• Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Tuesday and closed down US500 -0.65%, -27.7 and breaking 3600 at 3588. UBER -10.42%, LYFT -12.02%, AMGN +5.72%. US FUTS trades at 3628 now. 

• USOil – declined into $88.40, back to $89.65 & capped at $90.00.
• Gold – recovered from $1661-$1665 support zone to $1675 now. 
• BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to 18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now.

Today – UK GDP (missed -0.3% vs. 0.1%) EZ IP, US PPI Final Demand, FOMC Minutes, G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting, Astana Summit, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, Pill & Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Kashkari, Barr & Bowman

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) rallied from 80.70 lows yesterdays to 82.00 today. MAs aligned higher,  MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 64.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.236, Daily ATR 1.397. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The top funds to invest in now

As market volatility continues, here are the top funds, stocks and investment trusts investors are putting their money into according to one investment platform.

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EURUSD US CPI will be the judge

The underlying trend for the EURUSD could not be clearer and remains bearish against a dollar that continues to strengthen, following last Friday’s excellent NFP survey data (263k vs 250k) and a drop in unemployment (3.7% vs 3.5%). The USIndex, which measures the greenback against a weighted basket of six major currencies, has risen to 113.44 and is nearing a 52-week high of 114.75. (see below).

ING believes that “the dollar’s late September highs are well within reach”, and the event of the week, which is none other than the CPI expected this Thursday 13 October (USD, GMT 12: 30), could confirm this trend.

Indeed, even though headline inflation has fallen consecutively over the last 3 months from a record 9.1% in July to “only” 8.3%, the figures are still four times higher than the Fed’s target (2%).

Headline inflation in October is expected to fall from 8.3% to 8.1%, but the CORE index, which excludes food and energy prices and is closely monitored by the Fed, is expected to rise from 6.3% to 6.5%. The question remains as to whether the US has seen its “inflation peak” or whether inflation will remain high over the long term. (/fr/523821/)

Institutional investors expect the Fed to releve ces taux directeurs de 75 Pdb for the fourth time in a row, a first in history. This monetary policy has the effect of tipping the balance in favour of the dollar at the expense of the pair.

EUR/USD

Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard suggested that the US central bank would continue to pursue its mission of lowering inflation, despite the deteriorating growth outlook. “I now expect the rebound in the second half of the year to be limited, and real GDP growth to be essentially flat this year,” said Ms Brainard, referring to the consequences of “a significant increase in interest rates”.

These comments echo those of FED Chairman Jerome Powell, whose aim is to bring interest rates back towards his main target of 2% sooner rather than later, at the expense of economic growth.

Analyse Technique

The EUR/USD is currently at 0.9698 below its cloud, its Kijun (green line) and its Chikou Span (yellow line). The Laguin Span (white line) is below the cloud and its counterparts, clearly signifying a bearish momentum, the price could reach its support at the level of 0.9534, on the other hand, it could initially go for its Kijun at 0.9866 and then eventually reach parity (1).

Standard Chartered Bank consistently summarises what could happen and does not hesitate to state that “EUR/USD should weaken over the next 3 months, potentially testing support around 0.9000, before settling around 0.9300-0.9400.“

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Surging Gilt Yields Puts Pressure on BoE

Markets continue to doubt the BoE’s strengthening measures to lower risks related to the UK’s financial stability. To ensure an orderly completion to the emergency bond buying programme that ends on Friday, the BoE announced new measures by raising the amount of bonds it will buy this week. But as the emergency plan’s deadline approaches, markets are concerned that once the scheme is completed, volatility will increase once again.

The BoE’s plan to tackle rapidly rising borrowing costs is likely to be only temporary, as its main focus remains on withdrawing stimulus and tightening monetary policy in the fight against near double-digit inflation. It remains unclear, after all, how it will end its emergency bond-buying plan.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield

Today’s huge jump in 30-year yields puts the pressure back on the BoE to come up with a bolder plan, or risk letting GBPUSD slide towards parity. The yield on 30-year debt has risen to a high of 4.75%, close to the post-intervention peak of 5.12%. The 10-year yield also rose further to 4.3% moving closer to the 14-year high of 4.5% reached on 28 September, as measures announced by the Bank of England and the UK government failed to boost investor confidence.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Kwarteng said he will present his fiscal budget with economic forecasts backed by the budget watchdog on 31 October, almost a month earlier than planned.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD intraday bias remains neutral after narrow trading on Monday. On the downside, a break of the 1.1023 minor support would suggest that the rebound from 1.0350 is over. Intraday bias will return to the downside to test the 61.8%FR retracement level (1.0783) and if it persists it could test the 1.0538 support and 1.0350 low. On the upside, a strong break of 1.1495 resistance and descending trendline will open the way to 1.1737 and 1.2292 resistance. Oscillation indicators are still validating the recent downside movement in the sell zone, while the current price position is at the top of the bullish Kumo.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Market Update – October 11 – Risk Off – Gilts lead Yields & USD Higher, Stocks, Gold & Oil Sink

• USDIndex – Rallied again (113.40) following US moves to curb US chip technology to China hits Chinese hi-tech companies. UK GILTS lead US Yields higher. BOE – Widening the scope of its daily Gilt buying operations from 11-14 October. Cable tests 1.1000. Stocks remain on the back foot (-1%).  Asian markets hit by US Chip move (TSMC -8.33% & $240b wiped off wider market value) & European futs lower. PUTIN reacts to bridge attack with attacks on 13 Ukraine cities further undermining confidence. RISK OFF Tuesday.  

• EUR – trades as low as 0.9670, today under pressure from safe haven bid for USD.
• JPY – rallied as high as 145.85 today and the “BOJ intervention” levels of September 20-22. 
• GBP – Sterling sank again too as Uk Gilts rallied, Cable  back to 1.0996 with the pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng showing no signs of waning.
• Stocks – US stocks, were heavy again on Monday and closed down -1.04% to -0.32%. US500 -27.7 at 3612. AMD -1.08%, Ford -6.89%, NVDA -3.36%. US FUTS tested the key 3600 level on Monday and trades at 3613 now. 

• USOil declined into $90.00 from $93.00 highs as USD accrued and sentiment waned.
• Gold – declined again as strong USD and high Yields weighed, October lows of $1661 have been tested today.
• BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank under $19k to trade at 18.9k.

Today – UK JOBS beat expectations, US IBD/TIPP, Speeches from ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Harker & Mester, BoE’s Bailey & Cunliffe, SNB’s Jordan, RBA’s Ellis, Astana Summit

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.64%) Continued to rally from Friday’s low at 1.7350 to test 1.7500 now. MAs aligned higher,  MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.52 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00347, Daily ATR 0.03100. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Weekly Market Update: 10 October 2022

The Dollar begins the new week buoyed by a strong labour report as markets look ahead to inflation data.

Dollar

The Dollar begins the new week on the front foot, stimulated by the persistent narrative that the FED will continue to remain hawkish. Factors driving this exuberance are attributed to the stronger jobs report that came out on Friday, affirming that the US labour market is still relatively healthy, and will allow the FED more room to keep their hawkish stance with regards to interest rate decisions. Further impetus will be driven by lingering geopolitical concerns as well as the exacerbated energy crisis. All of the above will most likely keep risk sentiment relatively weak and drive safe-haven investors towards the Dollar.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price moved correctively towards the 109.95 area in the form of a descending channel, creating a reversal pattern to the upside. Since then, the price action yielded an impulsive wave and broke out of the structure, confirming that buyers are in control of price and are likely to revisit the top of the range located around the 114.55 area.

Euro

The Euro kicks off the week on the back foot amid an exacerbation of the current energy crisis gripping the bloc as well as the increasing risk of a recession in the European Union. Factors adding pressure to the single currency are mainly driven by the case for U.S interest rates continuing to rise in the near term, on the back of stronger than expected NFP data. Going into the rest of the week, investors will be eyeing the geopolitical effervescence as the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, leaving stocks lower as investors seek safer assets to park their investments.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price moved correctively towards the parity level in the form of an ascending channel, creating a reversal pattern to the downside. Since then, the price action yielded an impulsive wave and broke out of the structure, confirming that sellers are in control of price and are likely to revisit the bottom of the range located around the 0.95 area.

Pound

Sterling begins the week reaching a 10-day low on the back of a strong US jobs report as well as weakness in the risk-sentiment from investors. Factors driving this pressure on Sterling range from concerns about the UK government’s fiscal policy to recession fears. With that being said, any meaningful upside momentum will surely be capped by US inflation data, which would reinforce the FED’s stance and push back any inclination of a pivot on rate rises.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price moved towards the high of the current range located around the 1.147 area in the form of a rising wedge reversal pattern. Since then, price has moved out of the pattern impulsively, which validates that sellers are currently in control of price and are likely to challenge the bottom of the range located at the 1.039 area.

Gold

Gold heads into the new week under pressure from a stronger Dollar. Factors driving this weakness are mainly attributed to the market looking ahead to a hawkish FED on the back of a strong NFP. Going into the week, investors will be eyeing inflation data from the U.S coming out on Thursday. If the data doesn’t show any significant decline in inflation, this will be another green light for the FED to continue its current regime of rate hikes and push any ideas of a potential pivot even further down the road, which will likely have a negative impact on the yellow metal.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, gold is still in a downtrend and continuing to print out subsequent bearish continuation patterns. Current price action correctively approached the high of the range located around the $1 727 area in the form of an ascending channel. The reversal pattern was confirmed by an impulsive break of structure which validated that sellers are in control of price and are likely to challenge the low of the range located around the $1 620 area.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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