Get paid to use less electricity with a new National Grid scheme

A new scheme by the National Grid Electricity System Operator could see customers with smart meters get paid to use less electricity, earning up to £100 for using their appliances during off-peak times.

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What are Gilts and why should you care about them?

Gilts have been in the news a lot recently, but not everyone understands why these assets are so vital to the UK economy.

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Visa Takes Advantage Of Consumers’ Thirst For Freedom

Despite inflation, Visa is benefiting from consumers’ thirst for freedom as they continue to fuel strong demand for travel, one of its main sources of revenue. Analysts say returns from business travel, and cross-border holiday planning are benefiting the firm. Moshe Katri, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said: “So far, despite the macroeconomic situation, you continue to see a pretty stable consumer.” Visa’s monthly data shows sustained cross-border payment volume. She added: “In short, the sky is not falling, at least not yet.”

Source: zonebourse

According to Squaremouth.com, US travellers are spending 35% more in the fall this year than in 2021. Card companies tend to make more money when prices rise, because they charge a percentage of transactions, based on the value of the Dollar. The darkening economic outlook has not yet slowed consumer spending, according to the US banking giants, which reported results earlier this month. But high inflation could weigh on consumer spending, if accompanied by higher interest rates. Market participants continue to anticipate a continued aggressive rate hike by the Fed. According to CME Group 91.7% of market participants expect a 75bp hike in November. (See below)

It would appear that the future of the group is bright; out of 34 analysts (financial institutions) 20 are Buy, 9 are Accumulate and 5 are Hold.

Source: zonebourse

The firm is preparing to launch a new product, Visa Ready Creator Commerce, which is designed to put the world’s most important financial institutions on the map. It will connect partners within the ecosystem and provide creator platforms with tools to enable faster payments, tips and donations.

Vanessa Colella, Visa’s vice president and global head of digital innovation and partnerships, said: “Creators are redefining and expanding the small business ecosystem” and continued: “We want to leverage the scale and reach of our network to help this community thrive. The Visa Ready Creator Commerce programme will serve to build a connective layer between platforms and technological innovations to provide the creator economy with modern financial tools. The creator economy is one of the fastest growing small business sectors. Over 50 million artists, musicians and creators publish content that provides them with a full or partial source of income. Social commerce, which includes the work done by creators, is expected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2025.

By committing to creators Visa seems to be ignoring the current slump and only a decline in consumer spending could darken their future prospects.

Technical Analysis

Visa’s share price is currently at $190.36, below its cloud but above its Kijun (green line) and Chikou Span (yellow line) indicating an attempted bullish reversal. The Lagging Span (white line) needs to break and to move above the price action in order to confirm a potential uptrend. The first resistance for the price is to break above $190.98, and then in a second phase to break above $199.81. Conversely, if the attempt weakens, the price could fall to $184.32 and then retreat to its October low of $174.69.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Market Update – October 24 – Mixed China data, Sterling Rallies, Yen Whipsaws

• USDIndex – Spiked down to 111.30 following more BOJ intervention as the JPY whipsawed and GBP rallied following the news that Boris Johnson will not run for PM again. USDIndex is now back to 112.00.  XiPing cemented power for a third 5-year term, Chinese data very mixed, GDP & Ind Production & Trade balance all big beats but Unemployment rises and Retail sales misses significantly.  AUD & JPY Manu. PMI’s both missed.  More Fedspeak over weekend shows signs that some may be looking to slow down rate hikes, possibly as early as the December meeting. Has cycle-high “Peak Dollar” been realised? Asian markets also very mixed following Chinese data, despite strong Wall Street close (Nikkei +0.51% Hang Seng -5.54%), European FUTS higher.
• EUR – rotated from 0.9700, lows on Friday to 0.9900 today as USD demand swung wildly.  
• JPY – FT reported that BOJ bought $30 bln Yen on Friday as the pair hit 152.00, spiked to down to 146.00, before rallying to 149.50 again today and then further signs of BOJ action took the pair to 145.70 before once again recovering to 149.00 now. 
• GBP – Sterling rallied from 1.1060 lows on Friday to close at 1.1300 and then rally to 1.1400 on open following Johnson news. Trades at 1.1360 now. A Sunak/Hunt combination the most acceptable to the markets, Gilts, Sterling and FTSE FUTS all higher. 
• Stocks – Wall Street rallied on Friday (+2.37-2.47%) and had its best week (+4.74%- 5.22%) in 4 mths. SNAP tanked -28.08% on worst Earnings in 5-years as Advertisers cut back (Pintrest -6.4%, META -1.6%) Weak earnings too from AMEX -1.67% & Verizon -4.46%)   US500 3752 (+2.37%) US500 FUTS trades at 3766 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings. 

• USOil – from $83.00 lows on Friday to $85.51 highs today and now trades at $84.00. 
• Gold – plunged to $1617 blows on Friday before recovering to $1670 npekas today and trades at $1654 now. 
• BTC – plummeted to test $18.5K on Friday, spiked to $19.7k today before slipping back to $19.3k now. 

Today – EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, UK Conservative Party Leadership Election (Sunak likely new PM).

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+1.11%) Johnson will NOT run – Sterling rallied from sub 165.500 lows Friday and again today to 169.75 highs today.  MAs aligned higher,  MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising,  RSI 57.50 & rising, H1 ATR 1.117, Daily ATR 3.005. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Avios points: bag up to 100,000 bonus points now

How to get thousands of extra Avios points with American Express and Barclaycard bonus deals

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Is now the time to invest in oil as oil stocks top the S&P 500?

Oil stocks have enjoyed massive gains in the S&P 500. We take a look at the index’s best and worst performers and if now is a good time to invest in crude oil.

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Is electricity cheaper at night?

If you have an Economy 7 meter you could cut your bills by running appliances while you sleep, as they make electricity cheaper at night. But there are a few things to keep in mind.

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What’s next for the UK housing market?

The UK housing market enjoyed a prolonged boom, but rising interest rates have pushed mortgage rates up to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. It doesn’t seem likely things will change anytime soon. Will house prices come down in 2023?

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Tesla weighs on tech index prices

The average US stock index closed lower on Thursday (20/10). The US30 index fell –0.30%; the US100 contracted -0.51% as Tesla plunged –6.65% by the end of the trading session, while the US500 closed –0.80% lower. The weakness in average stock prices has increased liquidity against the USD which was supported by a rise in the 10yr T-Note yield which rose to a fresh 14-year high of 4.178%.

The USDIndex on Thursday narrowed its losses with a slight decline of -0.10%. The index initially fell quite sharply, as it was weighed down by short-lived Pound gains after PM Liz Truss announced her resignation.

Tesla Inc. reported Q3 revenue of $21.45 billion, below market expectations of $21.96 billion. As a result, the share price slumped. The electric vehicle giant described the quarter as strong with record revenue, operating profit and cash flow.

Operating income rose to $3.7 billion in the quarter and operating margin reached 17.2%. However, the company said profitability was impacted by higher raw material, commodity, logistics and warranty costs along with a negative forex hit of $250 million. This was also compounded by the less efficient performance of its new factories in Berlin and Texas.

Automotive revenue reached $18.69 billion, a 55% increase from a year ago, while cost of revenue for Tesla’s core automotive business rose to $13.48 billion during the quarter, up from $10.15 billion during the second quarter, in line with the increase in automotive sales. Tesla reiterated its previous guidance, saying, over a multi-year horizon, it expects to achieve 50% annual growth in vehicle deliveries.

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/

Deliveries of its semi-electric heavy trucks will begin in December, but no exact time was given for the start of production of its Cybertruck pickup, with the group saying only that it will be produced in Texas following the ramp-up of Model Y production there.

The company said that as shipment volumes reach significant levels in the final weeks of each quarter, transport capacity becomes expensive and difficult to secure leading to more vehicles in transit at the end of each quarter. It said it expects to smooth out logistics through the quarter will increase the cost per vehicle.

Technical Review

#Tesla’s share price since the August split (302.24) is still underperforming. Following this Q3 report, #Tesla’s price was trading at around 207.54 on Thursday, which translates to a decline of -31.2%. Sentiment over Elon Musk’s plan to buy Twitter, concerns over economic slowdown, surging inflation and rising interest rates contributed to #Tesla’s performance.

#Tesla, H4.

From a technical point of view, a further decline to the downside amidst the Fed’s rate hike expectations is not out of the question. June 2019 support as the bulls’ main defence is at 176.77 or about 14% of the current price. But a move above 228.64 minor resistance in the next few days could change the bias back to the upside to test 265.71 support which is now resistance. Alternatively, it is even possible that the company’s improved performance could lift the price up to the 302.24 limit.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.ana

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October 21 – US Treasuries Into the Longest Slump Since 1984

• USDIndex above the 113  as haven demand picks up after droppimg at 112.16. Yields are rising and stock markets remain under pressure, with indexes in the red across Asia and European and US futures also selling off. The 10-year yield rose 12 bps to test 4.24% before finishing at 4.228% (12-week strike of increases). Selling picked up after the break of 4.10%.
• PM Truss announced her resignation. While the markets cheered that news initially on hopes for some stability, it was more hawkish Fedspeak, better than expected jobless claims, a tepid 5-year TIPS, the announcement of $120 mln in new supply, and mixed earnings that ultimately weighed on Treasuries and Wall Street into the close. UK yields dropped on the Truss resignation, and Treasuries followed suit. But the gains in Treasuries were soon undone as hawkish comments from Harker.
• Stocks – Stocks stumbled through the afternoon and closed at the day’s lows with the US500 -0.8% in the red, back under 3700. The US100 was down -0.6% and the US30 was -0.3% underwater.
• EUR – 3-days consolidation at 0.9760. 
• JPY –  has now cleared the psychologically important 150 mark and is at 150.43.
• GBP – is struggling amid the political turmoil and ongoing uncertainty over the political and fiscal future of the country. Cable has dropped back to 1.1182. UK retail sales plunged -1.4% m/m in September.
• USOil – steady at $84.
• Gold – fell at $1620 & set for a 2nd weekly decline as US Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs.

Today – Canadian Retail Sales  & EU Oct. Consumer Confidence.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD drifed to 1620. MAs aligned lower along with a Southwards BB lines, MACD histogram & signal strongly bearishly configured, RSI 33.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Share tips of the week – 21 October

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

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Is now the time to invest in oil as oil stocks top the S&P 500?

Oil stocks have enjoyed massive gains in the S&P 500. We take a look at the index’s best and worst performers and if now is a good time to invest in crude oil.

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ECB & Europe Brief

ECB to delay new payment system, for the associated T2 liquidity-management model that was supposed to be introduced on November 21. It has been pushed back to March next year, with the ECB saying that the delay is “driven by the need to allow users more time to complete their testing in a stable environment”.

Officials also said that the decision “took into account the importance and systemic nature of T2, especially in view of the current geopolitical conditions and volatile financial markets”. The comments suggest that the overall situation is increasingly weighing on ECB’s mind and may also have an impact on next week’s policy decision.

ECB’s Nagel wants to reduce asset holdings soon. The Bundesbank President said yesterday evening that “it is important to look at the high bond holdings”, adding that in his view “there is a strong case to soon begin not replacing all maturing bonds”. With the ECB set to bring interest rates to a neutral level by the end of the year, the issue of QT will become a hot topic early in 2023, although the problem for the central bank is that the flexible re-investment of redemptions is the only option the ECB has at the moment to keep spreads in. Short of triggering the new emergency bond buying mechanism the ECB would eliminate the remaining support for BTPs in particular, if redemptions are no longer re-invested, although it would be a slow and long process and unless markets lose confidence in Italy’s fiscal policy, which is a possibility of course, the impact should be limited.

ECB on path to bring deposit rate to 2% by year end. ECB’s Villeroy flags slowed down tightening path next year. Villeroy repeated that once the key interest rates are at a neutral level, which should be by the end of the year, the ECB can slow down the pace of tightening. Villeroy seems to put the neutral level for the deposit rate at 2.0%, and with another 75 bp hike on October 27 and a further 50 bp in December, that would give the ECB some time to assess the situation. Bundesbank President Nagel meanwhile warned that the EC must withdraw support quickly, but “not stop too early”. Those comments signal that while the ECB seems pretty much in agreement on the outlook until the end of the year, next year’s decision will be more difficult, especially as Villeroy also signaled some nervousness that the situation in the UK, where the risk of a “vicious loop” prompted the BoE to restart bond purchases, will complicate the picture as central banks discuss QT.

In the meantime, from data perspective, today, Eurozone current account deficit continues to widen. The sharp rise in input costs has wiped out the Eurozone trade surplus and pushed the current account into deficit as well. The deficit stood at EUR -26.3 bln in August, after EUR -20.0 bln in July. The secondary income balance is also stayed firmly negative, but it is the deterioration of the goods balance that has pushed the current account into deficit. With governments pushed to splash out to ease the cost of living crisis and the pain of rising energy costs, the Eurozone is facing a double deficit, that is adding to pressure on the EUR.

With ECB officials already flagging a potential slowdown in tightening moves next year, while the Fed remains unwaveringly hawkish, the chances that EURUSD climbs back above parity seem pretty slim at the moment. Improved risk appetite may have halted the ascent of the US Dollar for now, but it would likely take a shift at the Fed and a signal that US officials are no longer happy with the strength of the dollar to give EURUSD a lasting lift.

The EURUSD posted a new pullback yesterday from the 50-DMA that interestingly clashes with the 5-month upper channel line.  According to the RSI, the market could maintain itself at 0.9800 in the short-term as the RSI is at neutral. However in the medium and long term it is expected to hold under pressure with RSI unable to move above 50 the whole year and as the MACD oscillator is hovering well below the zero level.

On the upside, the price could attempt to retest again the 50-day SMA and the parity level at 1.0000, which if successfully break, could open the door for the 1.0100 level , however such a move looks limited. A reversal to the downside, however, could find immediate support at the OCtober- September’s bottom at 0.9530-0.9600 barrier.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Mortgage rates are hitting record highs – should you fix your mortgage?

Two-year mortgage rates have hit a 14-year high, and are likely to keep climbing as interest rates rise. Could fixing your mortgage now protect you from a rate shock in a few months?

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