Earnings Season: The Estee Lauder Companies

The Estée Lauder Companies (EL.s), founded in 1946, is the global leader in the beauty industry with skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair products distributed internationally. Estée Lauder has a portfolio of more than 25 brands such as MAC Cosmetics, Clinique, and La Mer, among others. The company has a market capitalisation of $73.68B and is ranked #228 in the Fortune 500.

The Estée Lauder Companies is expected to report its first quarter fiscal 2023 earnings results on November 2 before the market opens.

Earnings: The Estee Lauder Companies

The Estee Lauder Companies
Source: www.nasdaq.com

Zacks ranks The Estee Lauder Companies Rank #3 (Hold) and #65/249 in the Cosmetics industry. For this report, EPS is expected to be $1.29 (-31.75% y/y) with -0.13% ESP. Earnings are expected to be $3.92B which would be a -10.82% y/y contraction. The estimate has had 0 upward and 8 downward revisions in the last 60 days. The company has a P/E ratio of 28.29 and a PEG ratio of 2.61.

The company has only failed to beat earnings expectations twice since 2010, most recently in August 2020.

Last quarter the company reported EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $3.56B.

Reported sales of EL Source: money.cnn.com

The company continues to face headwinds driven mainly by global inflation caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war which has produced an economic slowdown restricting consumer spending. This coupled with exchange rate problems in the markets and the supply chain due to regions affected by COVID restrictions in China and Hainan lately producing shortages in the chain have resulted in hurdles and reduced sales in the international markets.

Moreover, the loss of several licensing agreements is highlighted anticipating a 4-6% drop in organic net sales between the first and second fiscal quarters. Despite the headwinds, the company has made efforts to implement a good online retail infrastructure supported by new technologies and digital experiences with constant updates for users providing online booking for every shop appointment, omni-channel programmes and high-touch services.

The main website www.esteelauder.com is worth approximately $1.5M which has advertising revenues averaging $154.38 per day based on its traffic which averages 8.3k visitors/day, according to StatsCrop.

Traffic to the site in the month of September was primarily from the US with 86% of total visits, followed by India with 7.2%. The website saw a -24.85% monthly drop in September with 1.1M visits compared to 1.5M in August, according to Tipranks.

Technical Analysis  – The Estée Lauder Companies D1 $200.53

EL D1

The Estée Lauder is in a bearish distribution with a well marked descending channel from its highs of $284.34 set in August, followed by a break of the May lows at $230.52 and is currently testing the support zone from the current lows at $193.13 to the psychological level of $200.00 awaiting results.

Depending on the results price could approach the June 2020 support at $183.74 and if broken to the March 2020 lows around $140.00. Resistance is at the daily 20 period SMA at $211.38 followed by the 38.2% Fibo at $227.97 and the 50 period SMA just above at $231.657 where it could have a pullback.

ADX at 35.68 with +DI at 11.92 -DI at 26.80 marking a continued downtrend.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Aldo Zapien

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Sources:

1. https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2011316/what-awaits-the-estee-lauder-companies-el-in-q1-earnings?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID01-txt-2011316

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Women miss out on £599bn due to the gender investment gap

Men have billions more in stocks and shares Isas, investment accounts and private pensions, a new gender investment gap report reveals.

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Market Update – November 1 – USD & Stocks Cool following strong October

• USDIndex – Slipped from 3-day highs at 111.50 to 110.80. Weak Factory data across Asia but stocks rally on speculation that China could be exiting zero-Covid policy. RBA ups inflation target to 8% from 7.75% and increases rates by 25bp (in-line with expectations) to 2.85% was its 7th in 7 months and marks a new 9-year high. “The path to achieving this balance (lower inflation) remains a narrow one and it is clouded in uncertainty,” Lowe. US Stocks lower (NASDAQ -1.03%) underperformed, after huge moves in October (DJIA30 +13.95%, S&P500 +7.99% & Nasdaq +3.9%). Asian markets rocket (Hang Seng +6.03%), European FUTS also higher.
• Overnight – Chinese Manu PMI’s rose but remain in contraction (49.2), JPY Manu. PMI flat at 50.7.  
• EUR – dropped below 0.9900, to 0.9872 yesterday before recovering to 0.9920 earlier,  
• JPY – rallied to 5-day high at 148.85 yesterday before declining to 147.75 now. It’s believed BOJ had spent $42.8b supporting the Yen in October, today Fin Min. Suzuki said “Further sharp yen weakening is unfavourable with inflation being an issue”.
• GBP – Sterling dived from 1.1600 to 1.1460 yesterday, before recovering the key 1.1500 level today.  Wide ranging tax rises and spending cuts are expected from the Nov. 17 Autumn statement. BOE 75 bp rate increase expected on Thursday.
• Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (META -6%) in particular. Musk sacks all directors and becomes CEO of Twitter. US500 closed -29.08 (-0.75%) at 3871, FUTS trades at 3900 now. BP lifted profits by 32% to $8.15b vs $6.16b. Toyota profits dropped 25%, Aramco profits up 39%.

• USOil – rallied from $85.50 lows yesterday to test $87.75 now. Biden warns of windfall taxes on non-invested profits of US oil companies. 
• Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1650 today from $1630 yesterday.   
• BTC – rotates around $20.5k, following the 14th anniversary of the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper “Bitcoin P2P e-cash Paper.”

Today – UK & US Manu. PMI, US ISM Manu. PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, EARNINGS – BP, (+325 beat) Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Uber & AMD.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.75%) Rallied a whole point from  0.5775 to 0.5875 today, back to 0.5860 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising,  RSI 63.05, having been OB, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01060. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Stoozing is back: how to make extra cash using credit cards

“Stoozing” is the process of borrowing money at 0% and earning a high return. But is it too good to be true? Rupert Hargreaves explains what it is and how you can potentially benefit.

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Saving vs investing: which is better to help you make more money?

Saving your money certainly looks more attractive now interest rates are on the rise. But investing could be a better choice if you’re prepared to take some risk. We look at savings vs investing – where should you put your money?

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EURUSD : Technical Analysis 31 October – 04 November 2022

EURUSD fell only marginally by -0.09% on Friday, having received support from a sharp rise in the 10-year BUND yield to 2.08% and stronger-than-expected German GDP and Eurozone CPI reports. Germany’s Q3 GDP of +0.3% q/q was stronger than expectations for a -0.2% decline.

Last week, the ECB raised interest rates by 75 bp as expected, bringing the overnight rate to 2%. This is the highest level since 2009. The central bank removed the phrase, that it will raise rates in the “next few meetings”. Instead, the ECB said it will raise rates on a meeting-by-meeting basis, although that may mean further rate hikes, depending on inflation and the evolving economy.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-bond-yield

Inflation has reached double digits and will remain a priority for the ECB. The Eurozone released its inflation report on Monday, which showed that inflation rose to 10.7% in September, and is expected to 11.0% in October, according to some analysts. Core inflation is also ticked higher to 5.0%. The Eurozone will also release its October Final PMI, which is projected to show contraction, with a reading below the 50.0 level. Manufacturing will be released on Wednesday and Services on Friday. Manufacturing is expected at 46.6 and Services at 48.2, confirming the preliminary estimates.

Technical Analysis

Last week, EURUSD continued its 0.9535 rebound and fell back, after reaching 1.0093. Early this week, the initial bias remains neutral, as long as the minor support level at 0.9847 holds. Further upside is possible, on a break of 1.0093 to test the September high at 1.0197, and a further move above the 1.0197 level is likely to test the 38.2% retracement level at 1.0283 from the 1.1494-0.9535 pullback. On the other hand, a move below 0.9848 would return the bias to the downside for 0.9705 support.

EURUSD H4

The candle pattern on the monthly time frame shows the movement of October is still within the range (high – low) of September. This means that there is no confirmation of a trend change, although the attempt on the weekly time frame is clearly visible. Meanwhile on the daily time frame, the candlestick position is above the 52-day exponential moving average though this also does not mean that a trend change is imminent, after the supposedly dovish ECB conference last week. On the other hand, on the 4-hour period there has definitely been a breakout of the bearish structure, as the price moved strongly to break the parity level to the upside, before reversing back to the downside of parity. This shows that the parity level is still at an intermediate level, before the market shows its true direction. And it looks like the market is waiting for a trigger, whether it comes from the FOMC on Wednesday and/or the NFP on Friday.

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

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Uber: Q3 2022 Earnings Preview

Uber Technologies (formerly UberCab) is an American company founded in 2009 that operates as a technology platform for the mobility of people and things. Its services are divided into three main segments, namely mobility (connecting consumers with drivers who offer a variety of vehicles), delivery (searching and discovering local restaurants, ordering and delivering or picking up meals at restaurants, and grocery, alcohol and convenience store and other merchandise delivery) and freight (connecting carriers to shippers by leveraging proprietary technology, brand awareness and industry-changing experience). The company will report its third-quarter 2022 earnings results on Tuesday , November 1, before the market opens.

Fig 1：Uber’s annual revenue by market segment in billions of dollars. Source： Business of Apps

Uber Technologies’ sales revenue fell -21% year over year in 2020, heavily impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Until the first half of 2021, when the lockdown restrictions were in place, most of the company’s revenue came from the delivery segment. By the end of 2021, the annual revenue of the distribution segment was 8.3 billion (4.8 billion in 2020), the mobile segment 7.5 billion (7.9 billion in 2020), the freight segment 2.1 billion (900 million in 2020) and others 400 million (1.3 billion in 2020).

FIG 2：Uber Technologies reported sales versus analyst forecasts. Source ： CNN Business

By the end of 2021, the company reported sales of $17.5 billion, up 57.66% from a year earlier. In the first half of 2022, sales beat market expectations at $6.9 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively. Analysts’ forecasts for third-quarter sales 2022 remain unchanged at $8.1 billion.

Fig 3：Uber Technologies’ reported EPS versus analyst forecasts. Source： CNN Business

Conversely, full-year 2021 earnings per share were reported at -$0.29. This was the third consecutive year the company reported negative EPS (-$3.87 in 2020 and -$6.81 in 2019). The situation did not improve in the first half of 2022, with -$3.04 and -1.33 reported in Q1 and Q2, respectively. Management said the poor performance was mainly related to equity investment losses. Therefore, the focus will be on how the company’s earnings per share perform in the third quarter. Consensus estimates are at -$0.18, and an outcome at or above that figure would be a positive boost to sentiment and thus a positive boost to the company’s share price, and vice versa.

Recently, Uber Technologies announced the launch of its “Journey Ads” service, which allows marketers to place ads within the Uber app. Management believes that such a move could help support pricing that is more attractive to riders. However, the downside could be the risk of angering customers.

Fig 4: Global Ridesharing Outlook. Source: Buckle

The future of the ride-sharing industry looks bright. According to data, by 2026, the global carpooling market is expected to reach US $185.1 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.6% from 2021.

Fig 5：Uber total bookings and its segments. Source： WallStreetZen

Uber’s total bookings has remained positive. It hit $29.08 billion in the second quarter of 2022, up more than 180% from its trough two years ago. Since the economy reopened, gross bookings for Uber rides have rebounded sharply, nearly surpassing gross bookings for restaurants by the second quarter of 2022 ($13.36 billion vs. $13.88 billion)..

Fig 6：Uber users and middle-class wealth decline by income bracket. Source： WallStreetZen, Bloomberg

Statistics show that Uber users are mainly composed of middle-income groups (44%). In the macroeconomic context, the middle class has been the most adversely affected since the central bank announced monetary tightening in response to rising inflation, and according to a survey, this could mean these individuals may end up spending less in a number of ways, including eating out less/delivery less, canceling/postponing travel plans, spending less on groceries, and more. This could also indirectly affect Uber.

Technical Analysis:

#UBER (UBER.s) shares are trading within a descending channel with highs and lows of $64.04 (Feb 2021) and $19.89 (June 2022). As of last week’s close, #UBER’s share price was still below analysts’ lowest estimate ($32). The top line of the descending channel and $30.31 (FR 23.6%) are the nearest resistance levels. If the bullish breakout succeeds, the asset could continue to rise to $33.50 and then $36.76 (FR 38.2%). Instead, the nearest support is at$24.50. A close below that level could encourage more selling pressure down to $19.89 and the March 2020 low of $13.70.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Larince Zhang

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Market Update – October 31- October Ends!

• USDIndex – advanced a bit this morning but held below 111.00 ahead of the Fed this week. Treasuries were hammered after still hot inflation numbers and tight labor market conditions spooked bond holders and sparked heavy profit taking at week’s end. This morning, China’s factory activity unexpectedly fell in October, JPY Retail Sales beat but Consumer confidence and Housing starts missed significantly.  German retail sales rose 0.9% m/m in September.
• EUR – hoovering around parity 1.0000.
• JPY – further pressure  at 147.90 after BOJ decision to keep ultra-low interest rates on Friday and dissapointing retail sales this morning;
• GBP – reverts from 1.1600  (75 bp increases from BoE on Thursday?)
• Stocks -Steadied after closed largerly in green last week. Guidance from mega tech, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, earnings have generally beaten, albeit a very low bar. Chevron & Exxon beat expectations. Better revenue and profit news from Apple (up 7.6% Friday, its biggest daily jump since July 2020) helped boost investor sentiment today, while hopes the FOMC will back off aggressive rate hikes after the well expected 75 bps on Wednesday supported too.
• US30 had its 4th consecutive week higher and all markets closed +2.5%. 263 companied of S&P500 have reported, 73% have beat expectations. Today though US futures are in red.

• USOil – at $86.80, struggling to held above the 20- & 50-DMA.
• Gold – set for a new drift? Currently back to $1642 area
• BTC – back to $20.4k now.

• Reuters – Russia’s backtrack from a UN-brokered deal to export Black Sea grains is likely to hit shipments to import-dependent countries, deepening a global food crisis and sparking gains in prices. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of wheat booked for delivery to Africa and the Middle East are at risk following Russia’s withdrawal, while Ukrainian corn exports to Europe will get knocked lower.

Today – The new month and NFP will add to the mix this week.  Today European prelim. GDP for Q3 and tomorrow morning RBA Rate decision and Statement.  EARNINGS – Aflac,Stryker, Williams Companiesetc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.98%) Extended above 86 area as antipodean are on track for an October  ahead of RBA tomorrow. 1-hour MAs & RSI & Stochastics  flattened but MACD histogram & signal line kept well above 0. H1 ATR 0.179, Daily ATR 1.299. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Can I cash my pension in early?

The rising cost of living might make you wonder if it's worth cashing your pension in early, but that might not be a good idea.

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Best regular savings accounts - October 2022

You can earn an attractive rate on the best regular savings accounts. We tell you the best on the market to take advantage of right now

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Best areas for buy-to-let in the UK

If you’re thinking of getting a buy-to-let property you’ll want to know the areas in the country with the highest rental yields

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Is Rishi richer than the King? How much is Rishi Sunak worth?

Rishi Sunak is the UK’s richest prime minister and the only prime minister in history to be wealthier than the ruling monarch, King Charles III.

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Events to Look Out for Next Week

After a massive earnings week, central banks are taking over the stage, with RBA, BoE and FED monetary policy decisions. Although Truss stepped down there is still pressure on the BOE to deliver a bumper hike in November. The 32-year high inflation in Australia also rekindled concerns for heftier rate hikes from RBA, while Fed is expected to proceed with another 75 bps tightening. With Dollar having its sharpest correct for 2022, Fed and NFP will dominate the sentiment next week.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 31 October 2022

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• Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The October Manufacturing PMI in China is expected at 49.6 from 50.1.
• Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The October prelim. GDP and CPI is expected to grow by 0.7% q/q from 0.8% q/q.

Tuesday – 01 November 2022

---

• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (AUD, GMT 03:30) – This week Australia inflation accelerated to a 32 year high in the third quarter. Consumer prices rose 1.8% q/q, bringing the annual rate to 7.3% – the highest reading since 1990. Backed then the RBA hiked aggressively and contributed to a slide of the economy into recession and with core inflation hitting a series high of 6.3%, the data rekindled concern that the RBA will not just continue, but accelerate its tightening path again, after slowing down the pace at the last meeting. The bank has already lifted rates by 250 basis points since May. In the next meeting, however, economists are divided with regard to the amount of rate hike as forecasts are ranging between 15-50 bps.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is expected to fall to a 2-year low of 50.5 from prior low of 50.9 in September, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March ’21, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.
• Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – New Zealand’s Q3 employment change is anticipated to grow by 0.4% from 0.1%.

Wednesday – 02 November 2022

---

• Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) – Fed funds futures remain priced for another 75 bp tightening at the upcoming meeting. But the market is pricing out further jumbo hikes after some Fedspeak talking about a less aggressive trajectory in December and beyond. The futures had priced in a 5% handle on the funds rate by March and extending into the summer, but it’s now the case the implied rate is back with a 4 handle and a 4.93% terminal rate in May with cuts in the fall. The forecasts suggest 75 bp increases in November and December, but a downshift to 50 bps at the January 31/February 1 policy meeting, followed by a pause to assess conditions.

Thursday – 03 November 2022

---

• Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The pressure on the BoE has been reduced by the removal of Truss and Kwarteng and their plans of unfunded tax cuts. It is still expected that BOE will proceed with a 75 basis point hike in November, but there doesn’t seem to be the need to go even bigger. The fine tuning of the bank’s rate path will have to wait until the fiscal projections are finally on the table. BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden told a House of Commons committee that “febrile” markets want clarity on UK fiscal policy, and investors are not the only ones. Meanwhile, the BoE helped to stabilize sentiment by announcing last week that it would exclude longer-dated debt from bond sales when it starts to reduce its asset holding next month.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index should tick-down to 56.5 from 56.7 in September, versus a 2-year low of 55.3 in June that was last seen in February of 2021, and an all-time high of 68.4 last November, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November 2008.

Friday – 04 November 2022

---

• ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 09:30)
• Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 200k October nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 263k in September, 315k in August, and  537k in July. Payroll growth should slow into year-end as mortgage rates rise and recession fears mount. The October climb in initial and continuing claims suggests some downside payroll risk for the month. The jobless rate should hold steady at the 3.5% cycle-low. Hours-worked are assumed to be flat after the 0.2% September rise, while the workweek holds at 34.5 for a fifth month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3%, the same as in September and August, while the y/y wage gain should dip to 4.7% from 5.0%. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s employment change is anticipated to grow by 20k in October from -21.1k last month.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Isas vs savings accounts: what’s the best home for your cash savings?

Rising interest rates on savings accounts mean more savers may be subject to tax on the interest earned. Does that mean an Isa is a better option?

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