November’s Premium Bond millionaire winners revealed – how to check if you are a winner

Millions of Premium Bond holders have won tax-free cash prizes following the November draw. Here’s how to check if you’re one of the winners this month.

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US Open – Markets drift ahead of the FOMC Later – Live Analysis

The FOMC resumed its meeting today and will announce its policy decision at 18:00 GMT. That will be followed shortly by Chair Powell’s opening remarks and then the press conference at 18:30 GMT. A 75 bp hike to a 3.875% mid-point remains baked in the cake and Powell will indicate whether further increases are still needed. The big uncertainties are the trajectory of rate hikes from here, as well as the terminal rate. It would make sense for the FOMC and Chair Powell to play it close to the vest and say little and not paint himself into a corner and prevent market whipsaws, and a potential loss of credibility. Time will tell.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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5 of the world's best stocks

Here are five of the world’s best stocks according to Rupert Hargreaves. He believes all of these businesses have unique advantages that will help them grow.

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Q3 Earnings Season: PayPal Holdings, Inc.

PayPal Holdings, Inc.(PYPL.s)one of the leading fintech technology platforms enabling digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers with a market capitalization of $96.66B, is expected to report Q3 earnings for Sep 2022 on Thursday, November 3 after market close.

PayPal: https://www.nasdaq.com/es/market-activity/stocks/pypl/earnings

Zacks Investment Research ranks PayPal Rank #3 (Hold) in the Top 34% (#86/250) of the Internet-Software industry. For this report, the EPS is expected to be $0.95 (although for Nasdaq it is $0.70) with a 2.53% ESP, which would be a -14.41% YoY growth over the same quarter last year. Earnings are expected to be $6.82B which would be a 10.29% YoY growth from $6.18B last year. The company has a P/E ratio of 21.25 and a PEG ratio of 1.33.

The estimate has had 4 upward and 1 downward revision in the last 60 days. The company has only missed expectations 2 times in the last 20 reports, the last negative one in February this year and the most recent one beating forecasts by 9.4%.

Last quarter the company posted EPS of $0.65 and earnings of $6.81B.

PayPal’s reported and estimated sales Source: money.cnn 

During this year, Paypal’s price has been in trouble and has fallen -55.2% compared to the S&P500’s -18.1%. However in the last 3 months the price has been very much on par with the general market due to slowing sales.

In 2021, PayPal payments totalled $1.25 trillion. The figure was not only more than $300 billion over the previous year, but was the highest payout recorded by the company over the entire period.

PPYL vs S&P500 total return since 01/08/22 Source: Zacks.com

The company’s payments service and products, which include Venmo (which is helping to drive strong growth in its total payments volume, estimated at $344.5 billion (+11.2% YoY)) and Paypal Checkout along with merchant services is expected to be the main driver this quarter.

The growing popularity of “Buy Now, Pay Later” solutions has proven beneficial for PayPal as its offerings have improved. PayPal Pay Monthly is likely to continue to gain momentum among its customers.

PayPal experienced an increase in payment volume due to new services that cater to small businesses during the registration time being measured, likely due to its popularity. Of interest to investors are the net new active accounts added this reporting quarter. The company added approximately 400k new accounts in Q2 and a total of 2.8M in the first half of the year, ensuring it will close the year with 10M according to management.

The estimate for active customer accounts is 438M, which would mean 5.3% quarterly growth year-on-year. The mark for payment transactions per active user is set at 49.41M (+11.8% YoY) and the forecast for the total number of payment transactions stands at 5.8M giving an 18.7% YoY increase.

However, there are fears that the results could be affected by a slowdown in consumer spending amid growing fears of a continued inflationary rise accompanied by a possible recession.

Technical Analysis – #PayPal D1 – $83.10

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#PayPal is in a bearish channel after a strong upward momentum from its lows at 67.55 which broke the previous highs marking the current highs at 103.01.

In the case of an earnings surprise there could be a push towards the April highs near 120.00, although it should first regain the current key level and resistance at 100.00. Otherwise, there may be a continuation of the current bearish channel to further Fibonacci retracements marked at 78.6% at 75.14 or 88.6% at 71.59 or back to the June-July lows around 70.00.

ADX at 18.27 with the +DI at 18.27 and the -Di at 31.70, marking a retracement of the last bullish impulse.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Aldo Zapien

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Market Update – November 2 – It’s FED Day

• USDIndex – Slipped again from 111.50 to 111.25 ahead of the expected 75bp from the FED later today. It’s ALL about the tone and any reference to slowing rates (IMHO I don’t think he will be that clear). Strong JOLTS (jobs still hot) and PMI data had lifted the USD earlier from 110.50 and added to the conundrum for the FED. US Stocks closed lower (NASDAQ -0.89%) underperformed. 10-yr yields flirted under 4.0% be hold this key level.
• Overnight – Kuroda & Suzuki – talk up the JPY (weak Yen not good for economy , Fx rates set by markets, but still no need to change easing policy). Macklem – “difficult” to move to 2% inflation.  -ve UK Shop Inflation higher, but +ve German Trade balance more than tripled. 
• EUR – dropped below 0.9900, to 0.9872 again.   
• JPY – tested down to 147.00 rallied to 148.00 and now trades at 147.35 following Kuroda and Suzuki comments
• GBP – Sterling dived to 1.1440 yesterday, before recovering the key 1.1500 level today.  The Bank of England started Quantitative Tightening yesterday – the  first ever sale of some of its UK government bonds QE Portfolio. £750 million of bonds maturing between 2026 and 2029 were sold. It’s not the amount but the sentiment that counts!
• Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (AMZN -5.5%, GOOG -4.39%) in particular. UBER Revved up +12%. US500 closed -15.08 (-0.41%) at 3856, FUTS trades at 3870 now. 

• USOil – rallied from $86.25 lows yesterday to test the $90.00 zone earlier. Inventory draw-downs added to the bid.  
• Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1655 yesterday and hold $1650 today. 
• BTC – continues to rotate around $20.5k,  above the key 20K and significantly above the $19k support. 

Today – EZ Manu. PMI, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, EARNINGS GSK, Maersk, Osram, Vestas Wind & Qualcomm.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.74%) Dipped from 148.00 to 147.35 now following Kuroda and Suzuki comments.  MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling,  RSI 39.05 & falling,  H1 ATR 0.251, Daily ATR 1.94. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Eurozone inflation hits 10.7% in October

Inflation across the eurozone hit 10.7% in October. What does it mean for your money?

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Fairmont Century Plaza: a touch of Hollywood glamour

The grande dame of Century City looks better than ever following a multibillion-dollar redevelopment

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Weekly Market Update: 01 November 2022

Dollar Index pulls back from a three day high and finds support at the 110.82 area ahead of a key rate decision from the FED.

Dollar

The Dollar begins the new week on the back of a three day run up towards the 111.60 area after moving from the low of the range located around the 109.20 area. Since the aforementioned exuberance seen in the Dollar, price has pulled back towards the 110.82 area and this can be attributed to market participants being cautious ahead of the FED interest rate decision on Wednesday where a 75-basis point rate hike is largely expected. Furthermore, employment data is due on Friday in the form of NFP data, which is adding to the indecision seen in the index.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price is in an uptrend, printing higher-highs and higher-lows. Current price action is locked in a range between 109.95–114.55, with the bulls mostly in control of the dynamic, because of the potential bullish price action pattern being printed out in the form of a large descending channel. If confirmed, price will print out an impulsive wave and bulls could potentially drive price to the top of the range.

Euro

The Euro kicks off the week failing to defend a three-week low amid a cautious approach from the market. This conservative sentiment can be directly linked to dollar dynamics, in a week where key U.S data is expected to take centre stage in the form of interest rate decisions, NFP, manufacturing PMI, and S&P global manufacturing PMI, as well as JOLTS job openings for the month of September. Key takeaways from this data will likely govern which direction the Euro takes from this juncture.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price is in a downtrend, printing out lower-lows and lower-highs. Current price action seems to be printing out a larger potential bearish continuation pattern (rising channel), which would only be confirmed by an impulsive break of structure below the lower trendline. Confirmation of the above will give sellers the impetus needed to test the low of the range around the 0.9500 area.

Pound

Sterling begins the week bouncing from a three-day low ahead of the key FED data release. This exuberance can be attributed to an improved risk sentiment as investors shy away from excessive bets on the Dollar ahead of the interest rate decision expected on Wednesday. Additionally, the recent upside momentum can be derived from the expected rate decision from the BoE, where a double-digit increase is expected, in a bid to fight off record high inflation.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price is in a downtrend, printing lower-lows and lower-highs. Current price action is printing out a potential larger bearish continuation pattern (ascending triangle). The pattern will only be confirmed by an impulsive break of the lower trendline, which will give bears the impetus to test the lower end of the range located around the 1.0400 area.

Gold

Gold heads into the new week pulling back from a 7-day low amid an improved risk sentiment ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. This renewed buying interest in the yellow metal can be attributed to a weaker Dollar as well as the report by the WGC (World Gold Council), which showed that the demand for Gold increased by 23% from the same time last year, and this is one of the reasons investors are taking advantage of this renewed optimism driven by the data.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, Gold is still in a downtrend and continuing to print out subsequent bearish continuation patterns. Currently the price is locked in a range between $1,610–$1,727, with the current price action printing out a potential bearish continuation pattern in the form of a rising wedge. If the pattern is confirmed, sellers will likely drive price towards the low of the range.

Ofentse Waisi

Financial Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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BTC – Imminent reaction expected

BTC has had a rough year with its price falling more than 70%, with rising inflation that has forced a tightening of monetary policy by the US Central Bank which is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points this Wednesday for the 4th time in a row and an extremely strong Dollar creating an explosive cocktail that presages the cryptomoney.

As of October 24, BTC began its bullish rally to the $21,097 level by taking advantage of the USIndex pullback and the market rally; the US30 for example had its 4th consecutive week of gains (its best month since 1976). Major players anticipating a more measured FED action and a less hawkish speech from its chairman Jerome Powell contributed to the success of BTC, which was able to successfully break through resistance at the $20K level.

The fact that expectations of central bank policy remain high (see chart below) and that the bull run in the markets is reaching key levels brings back caution as we await Jerome Powell’s speech.

The FOMC meeting which takes place today and tomorrow (see chart below) will bring more answers. The policy of the US Central Bank and its role in steering the economy will be crucial: on the one hand the data indicates that the peak of inflation in the United States has been reached, which would favour a less aggressive action from the FED, while on the other hand, an early easing of its action could boost inflation, an unthinkable solution for Jerome Powell whose goal is to bring it back to 2%.

A purely technical and interesting factor concerns the volatility of BTC, as reaching historically low zones could cause a strong reaction of the cryptomoney. History shows us that the reaction of the price of BTC is as violent in one direction as it is in the other. (see below).

Technical Analysis:

BTC price is currently in its cloud at $20,564, above its Kijun (L. V) and Tenkan (L. J), its Lagging Span (L.B) is above its consorts and is currently working the Kijun (L. V) which indicates a hesitation in price. In the case of an uptrend the price could retest $21,097 and then $21,823. In the opposite case the price could test the resistance of 20K and then reach the level of its Kijun towards $19,430. (See below)

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Earnings Season: The Estee Lauder Companies

The Estée Lauder Companies (EL.s), founded in 1946, is the global leader in the beauty industry with skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair products distributed internationally. Estée Lauder has a portfolio of more than 25 brands such as MAC Cosmetics, Clinique, and La Mer, among others. The company has a market capitalisation of $73.68B and is ranked #228 in the Fortune 500.

The Estée Lauder Companies is expected to report its first quarter fiscal 2023 earnings results on November 2 before the market opens.

Earnings: The Estee Lauder Companies

The Estee Lauder Companies
Source: www.nasdaq.com

Zacks ranks The Estee Lauder Companies Rank #3 (Hold) and #65/249 in the Cosmetics industry. For this report, EPS is expected to be $1.29 (-31.75% y/y) with -0.13% ESP. Earnings are expected to be $3.92B which would be a -10.82% y/y contraction. The estimate has had 0 upward and 8 downward revisions in the last 60 days. The company has a P/E ratio of 28.29 and a PEG ratio of 2.61.

The company has only failed to beat earnings expectations twice since 2010, most recently in August 2020.

Last quarter the company reported EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $3.56B.

Reported sales of EL Source: money.cnn.com

The company continues to face headwinds driven mainly by global inflation caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war which has produced an economic slowdown restricting consumer spending. This coupled with exchange rate problems in the markets and the supply chain due to regions affected by COVID restrictions in China and Hainan lately producing shortages in the chain have resulted in hurdles and reduced sales in the international markets.

Moreover, the loss of several licensing agreements is highlighted anticipating a 4-6% drop in organic net sales between the first and second fiscal quarters. Despite the headwinds, the company has made efforts to implement a good online retail infrastructure supported by new technologies and digital experiences with constant updates for users providing online booking for every shop appointment, omni-channel programmes and high-touch services.

The main website www.esteelauder.com is worth approximately $1.5M which has advertising revenues averaging $154.38 per day based on its traffic which averages 8.3k visitors/day, according to StatsCrop.

Traffic to the site in the month of September was primarily from the US with 86% of total visits, followed by India with 7.2%. The website saw a -24.85% monthly drop in September with 1.1M visits compared to 1.5M in August, according to Tipranks.

Technical Analysis  – The Estée Lauder Companies D1 $200.53

EL D1

The Estée Lauder is in a bearish distribution with a well marked descending channel from its highs of $284.34 set in August, followed by a break of the May lows at $230.52 and is currently testing the support zone from the current lows at $193.13 to the psychological level of $200.00 awaiting results.

Depending on the results price could approach the June 2020 support at $183.74 and if broken to the March 2020 lows around $140.00. Resistance is at the daily 20 period SMA at $211.38 followed by the 38.2% Fibo at $227.97 and the 50 period SMA just above at $231.657 where it could have a pullback.

ADX at 35.68 with +DI at 11.92 -DI at 26.80 marking a continued downtrend.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Aldo Zapien

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Sources:

1. https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2011316/what-awaits-the-estee-lauder-companies-el-in-q1-earnings?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID01-txt-2011316

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Women miss out on £599bn due to the gender investment gap

Men have billions more in stocks and shares Isas, investment accounts and private pensions, a new gender investment gap report reveals.

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Market Update – November 1 – USD & Stocks Cool following strong October

• USDIndex – Slipped from 3-day highs at 111.50 to 110.80. Weak Factory data across Asia but stocks rally on speculation that China could be exiting zero-Covid policy. RBA ups inflation target to 8% from 7.75% and increases rates by 25bp (in-line with expectations) to 2.85% was its 7th in 7 months and marks a new 9-year high. “The path to achieving this balance (lower inflation) remains a narrow one and it is clouded in uncertainty,” Lowe. US Stocks lower (NASDAQ -1.03%) underperformed, after huge moves in October (DJIA30 +13.95%, S&P500 +7.99% & Nasdaq +3.9%). Asian markets rocket (Hang Seng +6.03%), European FUTS also higher.
• Overnight – Chinese Manu PMI’s rose but remain in contraction (49.2), JPY Manu. PMI flat at 50.7.  
• EUR – dropped below 0.9900, to 0.9872 yesterday before recovering to 0.9920 earlier,  
• JPY – rallied to 5-day high at 148.85 yesterday before declining to 147.75 now. It’s believed BOJ had spent $42.8b supporting the Yen in October, today Fin Min. Suzuki said “Further sharp yen weakening is unfavourable with inflation being an issue”.
• GBP – Sterling dived from 1.1600 to 1.1460 yesterday, before recovering the key 1.1500 level today.  Wide ranging tax rises and spending cuts are expected from the Nov. 17 Autumn statement. BOE 75 bp rate increase expected on Thursday.
• Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (META -6%) in particular. Musk sacks all directors and becomes CEO of Twitter. US500 closed -29.08 (-0.75%) at 3871, FUTS trades at 3900 now. BP lifted profits by 32% to $8.15b vs $6.16b. Toyota profits dropped 25%, Aramco profits up 39%.

• USOil – rallied from $85.50 lows yesterday to test $87.75 now. Biden warns of windfall taxes on non-invested profits of US oil companies. 
• Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1650 today from $1630 yesterday.   
• BTC – rotates around $20.5k, following the 14th anniversary of the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper “Bitcoin P2P e-cash Paper.”

Today – UK & US Manu. PMI, US ISM Manu. PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, EARNINGS – BP, (+325 beat) Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Uber & AMD.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.75%) Rallied a whole point from  0.5775 to 0.5875 today, back to 0.5860 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising,  RSI 63.05, having been OB, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01060. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Stoozing is back: how to make extra cash using credit cards

“Stoozing” is the process of borrowing money at 0% and earning a high return. But is it too good to be true? Rupert Hargreaves explains what it is and how you can potentially benefit.

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Saving vs investing: which is better to help you make more money?

Saving your money certainly looks more attractive now interest rates are on the rise. But investing could be a better choice if you’re prepared to take some risk. We look at savings vs investing – where should you put your money?

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