Market Spotlight: BTC Hits Fresh 2022 Lows Amidst Crypto Crash

Fresh Wave of SellingYou’ve got to feel sorry for bitcoin bulls. After months of sideways action hopes of a rally were dashed as the leading digital coin broke down to fresh 2022 lows again this week. Now trading at its lowest levels since December 2020, BTC has dropped by roughly 65% this year and looks vulnerable to further weakness over the remaining weeks of the year. BTC wasn’t alone in the sell off wither, we’ve seen similar heavy losses across the board in other leading cryptos such as ETH and LTC.FTX In Trouble The driver behind the more than $1 billion liquidation we’ve seen across the crypto-sphere this week looks to be news that FTX will be acquired by Binance. Market chatter that crypto exchange FTX was on the brink of insolvency saw huge capital outflows from the company within a 24 period. While the FTX CEO claimed the rumours were false, accusing rival Binance CEO Zhang of fuelling the story, the situation continued to spiral. Ultimately, Binance announced that it would acquire the faltering company, backstopping its investors and clients.However, the story has raised fears of further such events as crypto prices and retail interest continue to fall. Coinbase’s Q3 earnings were a major cause of concern last week with the company’s revenues having fallen by around two-thirds from its peak and the so-called ‘crypto winter’ showing no signs of thawing yet.Technical ViewsBTCThe sell-off in BTC this week has seen the asset breaking down to fresh 2022 lows below the 18545 level. Price is currently finding support into the falling wedge support trend line, ahead of the 1660 level and with strong bullish divergence on momentum studies it’s worth noting reversal risks here.

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Market Spotlight: Tesla Tanks as Musk Sells More Stock

Tesla Under Pressure Shares in Tesla have come under fresh selling pressure this week. Initially sales were linked to news that Tesla was recalling around 40,000 electric vehicles in the US due to a power-steering problem.  However, bearish sentiment intensified midweek on news that Elon Musk has offloaded another round of shares.Musk Sells MoreFilings with the US financial watchdog this week show that on the back of closing his Twitter takeover deal, Musk sold around 20 million shares in Tesla, roughly $4 billion in total. With this latest tranche of selling, Musk has now sold around $20 billion in Tesla shares this year since announcing his takeover bid for Twitter.Twitter Deal LinkWhile no details have been provided as to why the sale took place, the news is certainly concerning for stockholders given that Musk reassured investors in August that he was done with selling and would not be offloading anymore of his stake. Given the proximity to the Twitter deal it’s reasonable to assume the sales fulfill a cashflow need for Musk. However, the selling will no doubt continue to eat away at the almost cult-like following Musk enjoyed from Tesla devotees.Technical ViewsTeslaThe sell off in Tesla shares this week has seen the stock dropping through the 207.71 base which had underpinned the market over recent weeks. This is a key technical development for Tesla and puts focus on a continuation lower near-term. While within the bear channel, the next level to watch is the 183.26 level, a break of which opens the way for a run down to 154.46 next.

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USD Sinks on US Midterms Uncertainty But 'Red Wave' Falters

Red Wave to Red Ripple?Counting for the US midterm elections has begun and as the initial results filter in we are seeing the Republican party closing in on winning the House, while the Senate looks far more evenly contested and Democrats are still in the lead currently. Looking at state elections, it is worth noting that the so-called “red wave”, which many political commentators were calling ahead of the elections, has failed to materialise. While Republicans are ahead, Democrats held onto some key states including California and Pennsylvania and look to be close to winning in Georgia too. In total so far, Republicans have 24 state governor seats, losing 2, while the Democrats have 21, gaining 2.Congress Race Heats UpIn terms of Congress, Republicans are leading in the House by around 198 – 167 with 218 needed to confirm a win. In the Senate, Democrats lead 48 – 47, needing 51 to win. The sell off in USD reflects the uncertainty gripping the market currently. Looking at equities yesterday, we saw initial gains in US indices as the Dollar came off before sellers stepped in later in the day. This is potentially due to the weaker showing from the Republican party.Trump Support DwindlingOne key takeaway from these midterms is that support for Trump looks likely to be much lower than he anticipated, meaning that it Is not yet certain if he will announce a fresh presidential campaign. On the one hand, his party rival Ron DeSantis was seen performing much better than expected while most of the candidates endorsed by Trump failed to win, aside from JD Vance.Market ReactionLooking at market reaction then. With a Republican win in at least one chamber of Congress already baked in on the back of yesterday’s USD move, it would likely take a surprise victory for the GOP in both chambers to fuel a fresh wave of USD selling here. Instead, traders now look to the upcoming US CPI release tomorrow which Is likely to be the next key directional catalyst. If we see any weakness in tomorrow’s reading, USD certainly has room to drop lower. However, if CPI surprises to the upside, yesterday’s order book clear-out sets bulls up nicely for a fresh upside move nicely.Technical ViewsDXYYesterday’s drop lower saw DXY trading down to test the key 109.18 support area where we have structural support and the long-term rising trend line. While this area holds, the focus is on a continuation higher in the medium term, viewing the current move lower as a corrective bull flag. However, if price breaks below this area, 104.95 is the next support to watch.

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USD Sinks On Midterms Uncertainty But 'Red Wave' Falters

Red Wave to Red Ripple?Counting for the US midterm elections has begun and as the initial results filter in we are seeing the Republican party closing in on winning the House, while the Senate looks far more evenly contested and Democrats are still in the lead currently. Looking at state elections, it is worth noting that the so-called “red wave”, which many political commentators were calling ahead of the elections, has failed to materialise. While Republicans are ahead, Democrats held onto some key states including California and Pennsylvania and look to be close to winning in Georgia too. In total so far, Republicans have 24 state governor seats, losing 2, while the Democrats have 21, gaining 2.Congress Race Heats UpIn terms of Congress, Republicans are leading in the House by around 198 – 167 with 218 needed to confirm a win. In the Senate, Democrats lead 48 – 47, needing 51 to win. The sell off in USD reflects the uncertainty gripping the market currently. Looking at equities yesterday, we saw initial gains in US indices as the Dollar came off before sellers stepped in later in the day. This is potentially due to the weaker showing from the Republican party.Trump Support DwindlingOne key takeaway from these midterms is that support for Trump looks likely to be much lower than he anticipated, meaning that it Is not yet certain if he will announce a fresh presidential campaign. On the one hand, his party rival Ron DeSantis was seen performing much better than expected while most of the candidates endorsed by Trump failed to win, aside from JD Vance.Market ReactionLooking at market reaction then. With a Republican win in at least one chamber of Congress already baked in on the back of yesterday’s USD move, it would likely take a surprise victory for the GOP in both chambers to fuel a fresh wave of USD selling here. Instead, traders now look to the upcoming US CPI release tomorrow which Is likely to be the next key directional catalyst. If we see any weakness in tomorrow’s reading, USD certainly has room to drop lower. However, if CPI surprises to the upside, yesterday’s order book clear-out sets bulls up nicely for a fresh upside move nicely.Technical ViewsDXYYesterday’s drop lower saw DXY trading down to test the key 109.18 support area where we have structural support and the long-term rising trend line. While this area holds, the focus is on a continuation higher in the medium term, viewing the current move lower as a corrective bull flag. However, if price breaks below this area, 104.95 is the next support to watch.

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Midterms 2022 – Issues and Implications

Today, November 8, Americans are called to the polls to elect the new members of the House of Representatives as well as a third of the United States Senate and according to the polls, the Republicans are likely to win around 25 seats on the 435 that counts the House of Representatives, of this fact they would obtain the majority and could also obtain the seat which they need to take the control of the Senate .

The effort of Republican donors has surely played a major role in this probable success when we know how crucial the financing of an electoral campaign is, these mid-term elections should set a new expenditure record (more than 9 billion dollars raised). Visual Capitalist illustrated this data by sorting this list of the top 10 donors by party, we can see that $168 million was raised for the Democrats , and $338 million for the Republicans .

Organized two years after the presidential election, these elections are crucial because they would offer the possibility of overturning the government of Joe Biden . Concretely, if the majority of the members of the Chamber turn out to be Republicans, the Democratic Party will remain powerless against the opposition and the government will fall into a cohabitation which will deprive it of legislative power. In summary, this would prevent the President from governing the country, leading to a radical change both at the political and economic level.

A deep political divide exists in the United States since Donald Trump‘s victory in the 2016 presidential elections between the Democratic Party on the one hand and the Republican Party on the other now considered “Trumpist”. President Biden declared:  “Today we face an inflection point. We know in our bones that our democracy’s at risk and we know that this is your moment to defend it,” the fact is that it is more than probable that the Republicans will pick up roughly 25 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives, more than enough to win a majority and possibly the single seat they need to swing control of the Senate too.

A solution that seems to suit Elon Musk who calls on Americans to vote Republican in the midterm elections on Twitter : “power sharing limits the worst excesses, so I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the presidency is Democrat”

The question is how will this change in policy affect the governance of the country?  Kevin McCarthy , who is expected to become the next Speaker of the House if Republicans get the upper hand in the lower house, hinted at what might happen. They plan to use ‘the federal debt ceiling’ as leverage to demand deep spending cuts; stating, “You can’t keep spending and adding to the debt…there comes a time when, okay, we’ll give you more money, but you have to change your current behavior” and adding to Punchbowl News “We’re not going to keep increasing your credit card limit, are we? And we should seriously sit down together and figure out where we can eliminate some waste?”.

During the same interview Kevin McCarthy suggested that he would try to reduce US aid to Ukraine : “I think people are going to be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t…”. It’s not a free blank check” and to add “And then there are the things that the Biden administration does not do at a national level. It doesn’t care about our border and people are starting to take that into account. Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do, and it can’t be a blank cheque.”

At the same time, if Republicans take control of the House , it will likely be dissolved, while other committees will pass into Republican hands. Several Republican lawmakers have called for the impeachment of Biden , Attorney General Merrick Garland and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas . Asked by CNN this week whether impeachment was “on the table,” McCarthy replied, “You know what’s on the table? Accountability”, before listing a list of possible investigations and adding “We will never use impeachment for political purposes”; “it does not mean that if something rises on occasion, it would not be used”. In addition, they would work to make personal tax cuts permanent as well as protect the corporate tax cuts that Democrats have been trying to eliminate over the past two years.

From an economic perspective, investors seem to be leaning towards a Republican victory, but regardless of who wins, the past midterm elections provided a period of positive market performance , which those concerned would rejoice after. a year in which the S&P 500 fell nearly 21% . Here are some areas of the stock market that will be targeted when Americans go to the polls.

DEFENSE

Defense spending is expected to increase regardless of the outcome , due to tensions ( Ukraine & Taiwan ). But a Republican victory would allow for a “significant” increase in spending, according to UBS Global Wealth Management , versus a “moderate” increase if the Democrats retain one or two houses of Congress. The S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense Index ( .SPLRCAED ) is up nearly 10% this year.

HEALTH

Pharmaceutical and biotech stocks should benefit from a Republican victory, after Democrats recently repealed a law aimed at reducing prescription drug prices. The S&P 500 healthcare sector ( .SPXHC ) is down nearly 7% in 2022, while the S&P 500 pharmaceuticals index ( .SPLRCCARG ) is up about 1% .

BIG-TECH

According to Citi analysts , it is not certain that the reform of GAFAM enjoys bipartisan support . In fact, a Republican victory in the House or Senate “probably signifies legislative paralysis, which implies incremental improvement in the category,” they said. The Nasdaq 100 Index ( .NDX ) has fallen by about a third this year.

ENERGY

Energy stocks have had a bumper year and stand to benefit from a Republican win , with the S&P 500 ( .SPNY ) energy sector up more than 60% in 2022, Citi analysts said , although such a policy may be favorable to oil exploration companies, it could weigh on stocks by putting pressure on oil prices.

CLEAN ENERGY

A surprise Democratic victory could lift the sector . The Invesco Solar ETF ( TAN.P ) has fallen about 6% this year. Legislation promoting “clean energy,” including tax credits and investments, could benefit from this status quo according to State Street Global Advisors .

SECURITY

A Republican Congress would make border security a ” high-profile issue” according to Strategas. While private prisons such as CoreCivic are up about 12% this year, and Geo Group is up about 15% .

Evidence is offered to us as inflation undermines the notoriety of President Biden   “Trumpism” is still very much alive and ingrained deeply in American society, in a speech this Monday in Dayton (Ohio), former President Donald Trump promised he was going to make “a really big announcement” on Nov. 15 at Mar-A-Lago, his Florida residence. This statement flirts with the idea of ​​a new candidacy for the White House.

Click  here  to access our economic calendar

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided for marketing informational purposes only and does not constitute independent investment research. The content of this publication should not be considered investment advice, an investment recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All information provided is collected from reputable sources together with data containing an indication of past performance and should not be taken as a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which users are fully responsible. We accept no liability for any loss resulting from any investment made on the basis of the information provided in this publication. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed without our prior written permission.

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Persimmon yields 13.8%, but can you trust it to deliver?

With a dividend yield of 13.8%, Persimmon looks like a highly attractive prospect for income investors. But that sort of yield can also indicate a company in distress. Rupert Hargreaves looks at the numbers to find out if it's sustainable.

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Inheritance tax warning: Hunt plans to freeze threshold until April 2028

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce a new raid on inheritance tax in next week’s Autumn Statement.

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SP500 Targeting A Test of 4125

Technical & Trade ViewSP500 (emini futures contract)Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 3770TechnicalsIntraday 3800 is primary supportPrimary pattern objective is 4125Acceptance above 3930 next pattern confirmationFailure below 3770 opens a test of 373020 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullishNotes Goldman Sachs institutional trading desk notes that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA’s)  'are still Buyers: Over 1 week in a flat tape = $38bn to buy/ Over 1m flat tape= $37B to buy (significant portion of this is in FTSE100). Based on our math they bought $43last week and bought 79bn in last month. We crossed back through the short-term trigger level today: 3804'

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USOil Rally Held at the Neckline Level

Crude oil futures prices rebounded on Monday, with USOil recording a high of $92.88 and UKOil almost reaching $100 per barrel for the first time since August this year, as supply concerns returned to the global oil market. Today, USOil has slipped to $91.00 and UK Oil trades at $97.00.

OPEC+ recently opted to sharply reduce oil supply in a bid to push prices much higher. The official cuts, coupled with supply challenges in countries such as Nigeria, are raising future supply concerns. Oil prices were also supported by the European Union preparing to impose restrictions on Russian oil imports as an economic sanction for the war that has taken place.

The recent escalation of tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia also contributed to the boost in oil prices. The US accused Saudi Arabia of partnering with Russia and paying too much attention to its relationship with China.

However, the rise in oil prices is still overshadowed by falling demand from China, as new Covid infections surged to a 6-month high. China reported 5,436 new Covid infections on Sunday, the most in 6 months. Weak Chinese trade data was bearish for economic growth and energy demand after China’s October exports unexpectedly fell -0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.5% y/y and the first decline in nearly 2-1/2 years. In addition, China’s October imports unexpectedly fell -0.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of unchanged and the first decline in 2 years.

Technical Analysis

USOil’s rally was held at the neckline level in Monday’s trading (07/11) to register a high of $93.05 per barrel. Price positioning remains relatively stable for now, while further upside is projected to test FE100% at $97.41 from $75.94–$92.58 and $81.23 pullbacks. However, as long as the $92.26 neckline still holds, the price bias could return to the downside to test the $84.73 support first. Technical indications remain relatively stable, with price movement above 26 and 52-day EMA, RSI above neutral level and AO in the buy zone.

USOil, H8

Bearish factors are likely to be influenced by China’s Zero Covid policy. The shutdown weakened energy demand in China. Air travel in China during the Golden Week holiday in the first week of October fell -42% from a year earlier, and road travel by Chinese tourists during the week-long holiday fell about -30% from a year ago. Transport accounts for about half of oil consumption in China.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Daily Market Outlook, November 8, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 8, 2022“Asian markets retain a bid tone overnight, the outlier remains Chinese equities which have failed to take the positive lead from European and US markets overnight. Overnight data from Australia showed continued deterioration in both business and consumer sentiment readings. Markets are firmly focused on political developments in the US, polling suggests that Republicans are favored to take control of  the House of Representatives, the Senate races remain too close to call. With President Biden’s popularity plumbing new lows there is a decent chance that Republicans wrestle control of both houses, this result would significantly hamper the Biden’s administration to make any meaningful policy headway in the second half of his term, further frustration for the Biden administration is seen with former President Trump setting the stage for a Presidential run in 2024, this would essentially see the clock running on the 2024 race as soon as next week. Markets appear poised for a red sweep in the US which will be seen as positive for markets, weighing on the Dollar and US Yields, as the Fed will likely have to take up the baton of economic support as the fiscal impulse from the government will be significantly impeded if not totally neutralised...”Overnight HeadlinesBiden: GOP Win Will Roll Back Help For ‘Struggling’ Families - BBGTrump Will Make A "Big Announcement" On Nov 15 - RTRSChina Reopening Hopes Keep US Dollar On Guard - RTRSFTX Token Plummets As Market Fears Possible Alameda Contagion - CoinDeskBiden Predicts Democrats Will Win The Senate - The HillPoll: Biden Approval Ticks Lower As Democrats Brace For Midterm Losses - RTRSUS Monetary Policy Tighter Than Benchmark Rate Suggests - RTRSFed’s Barkin: Fed Will Stick To The Task Of Curbing Inflation - BBGEU Dims Hopes For A Price Cap To Contain Soaring Gas Costs - BBGEU Aims To Dispel Criticism On Ukraine Aid With €18 Billion Plan - BBGEurozone Grapples With Coordinating Energy Support Plans As Recession Looms - RTRSECB’s Lagarde: ECB Must Bring Inflation Back To 2% - BBGGermany To Spend €83.3 Billion To Subsidize Energy Prices - BBGGermany Should Hike Taxes On Rich To Finance Relief Packages - RTRSOil Prices Fall As China Demand, Recession Concerns Outweigh Supply Woes - RTRSGold Stalls As Investors Brace For US Inflation Data - RTRSTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3730TechnicalsPrimary support is 3730Primary upside objective is 3994Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 3920Failure below 3695 opens a test of 363020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .9890TechnicalsPrimary support is .9890Primary upside objective is 1.0284Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.00Failure below .9815 opens a test of .963020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.9800 (1.06BN), 0.9900 (201M), 0.9950 (603M),0.9970-85 (1.42BN), 0.9990-00 (1.022BN), 1.0020-25 (673M), 1.0050 (468M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1320TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1320Primary upside objective 1.20Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1650Failure below 1.1290 opens a test of 1.115020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1500 (603M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 148.10TechnicalsPrimary resistance is 148.10Primary downside objective is 143.25Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 146Acceptance above 148.50 opens a test of 149.7020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: EUR/JPY: 146.00 (243M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6400TechnicalsPrimary support is .6400Primary upside objective is .6590Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6520Failure below .6350 opens a test of .628020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6250 (307M), 0.6275 (714M), 0.6300 (325M), 0.6390 (225M), 0.6450 (1.73BN), 0.6500 (494M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 19100TechnicalsIntraday 19100 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 22191Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 21460Failure below 19000 opens a test of 1860020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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Weekly Market Update: 07 November 2022

Dollar Index snaps lower on the back of speculation of smaller future rate hikes

Dollar

The Dollar begins the new week licking its wounds, on the back of Friday’s losses. Factors contributing to this weakness in the currency can be attributed to the improved risk sentiment in the market caused by the sheer optimism over the less hawkish comments made by the FED, which have further decreased the likelihood of another massive 75 basis point rate hike in December to 38.5% according to CME FedWatch tool. Under the spotlight this week is the much anticipated Consumer Price Index data, which could prove to be pivotal in its influence on what the FED will do in December with regards to their approach to fighting record high inflation.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, not much has changed in the past week, as price is still in a technical uptrend, printing higher-highs and higher-lows. Current price action is locked in a range between 109.95–114.55, with the bulls mostly in control of the dynamic, because of the potential bullish price action pattern being printed out in the form of a large descending channel. If confirmed, price will print out an impulsive wave and bulls could potentially drive price to the top of the range. Conversely if the pattern fails and breaks below the 109.95 area, it could potentially be the impetus that bears are waiting for to drive the narrative.

Euro

The Euro kicks off the week holding onto the swing in momentum on the back of Friday’s NFP data. Factors driving this renewed exuberance in the European common currency can be mainly attributed to signs of exhaustion in the hawkish narrative that has been coming from the FED. Furthermore, the narrowing divergence between the FED and the ECB is driving some optimism in the Euro as it nears the parity level once again, as the market takes note of the likelihood of the ECB continuing its newly found hawkish stance to return inflation to its target of 2%, as opposed to the change in rhetoric coming from the FED about a potential slowdown of rate hikes.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price remains in a downtrend, printing out lower-lows and lower-highs. Current price action seems to be printing out a larger potential bearish continuation pattern (rising channel), which would only be confirmed by an impulsive break of structure below the lower trendline. Confirmation of the above will give sellers the impetus needed to test the low of the range around the 0.9500 area. Conversely, a break above the 1.0100 area might give bulls renewed buying interest.

Pound

Sterling begins the week continuing to register strong gains largely driven by dollar weakness and a risk-on mood on Monday morning. This much needed renewed buying interest in the Pound comes as a reprieve after last week’s appalling start to the trading week, where the Pound saw a full-on assault from the bears until Friday where a low of 1.1100 became the line in the sand before the sustained run saw a recovery to 1.1400 against the Dollar on Monday morning. Looking ahead to the rest of the week, dollar dynamics will be running the narrative as traders position themselves ahead of the key CPI report.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, price continues to be in a downtrend, printing lower-lows and lower-highs. Current price action is printing out a potential larger bearish continuation pattern (ascending channel). The pattern will only be confirmed by an impulsive break of the lower trendline, which will give bears the impetus to test the lower end of the range located around the 1.0400 area. Conversely, a violation of the upper trendline could potentially give bulls control of price.

Gold

Gold heads into the new week flirting with multi-week highs as it benefits from the selling-bias seen in the Dollar. Factors driving this “dip-buying” can be attributed to the mixed signals derived from the US employment data that came out on Friday which showed a growth in the labour market, but the data had some nuances that have fuelled speculation that the FED could slow down the pace of future rate hikes.

Technical Analysis (H4)

In terms of market structure, Gold is still in a downtrend and continuing to print out subsequent bearish continuation patterns. Currently price is locked in a range between $1,610 – $1,727, and both sides of the market will be anticipating a break on either side of the range for stronger directional bias.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ofentse Waisi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Remortgage deals November 2022: the ultimate guide to the latest offers

Here are the latest remortgage deals on the market following the Bank of England’s latest interest rate rise.

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Average house prices fall -0.4%. Is the market cooling?

House prices show their biggest monthly fall in October since early 2021, latest Halifax House Price Index shows

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Walt Disney: Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

The Walt Disney Co., a diversified international family entertainment and media enterprise founded in 1923, shall release its earnings result for fiscal full year and Q4 2022 on 8th November (Tuesday), after market close. The company operates via two main segments: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution (DMED) and Disney Parks, Experiences and Products (DPEP). The former covers the company’s global film, television content production and distribution activities, while the latter encompasses parks and experiences and consumer products.

Fig 1：Reported Sales of Walt Disney Co. Versus Analyst Forecast. Source: ： CNN Business

Despite reported sales that slightly missed consensus estimates in 2021, Walt Disney has delivered satisfactory results throughout 2022 (Q1: $21.8B versus $20.3B; Q2: $20.3B versus $20.1B; Q3: $21.5B versus $21.0B). Analyst forecasts for the sales of Walt Disney in the coming quarter remain flat at $21.3B. In full year 2022, consensus estimates stood at $84.4B, up over 25% from the prior year.

Fig 2：Reported Sales of Walt Disney Co. Versus Analyst Forecast. Source: ： CNN Business

On the contrary, EPS of the company missed analyst expectations last year by nearly -7%, at $2.29. This year, its EPS remained flat around $1 for three consecutive quarters, below consensus estimates. In the coming quarter, the market participants expect the EPS to hit $0.55, or $3.79 for the full year of 2022.

In general, the company continued to see significant improvements in attendance, occupied room nights and cruise ship sailings since the reopening of the global economy after the Covid pandemic. The management expected the demand to remain robust going into Q4 2022. Until today, China is the only country that perseveres with the zero-Covid policy. It is still unclear when the policy shall end, however one thing that is certain is that once the Chinese government allows reopening of the economy, this shall further benefit Disney especially in the tourism sector.

In the previous quarter, the company’s Disney+ subscriptions rose to 152.1 million, better than consensus estimates. Nevertheless, operating losses were still the main problem, which led the company to unveil a new ad-supported pricing structure beginning in December this year. The management expected to see Disney+ to become profitable by the end of its fiscal 2024 year.

Technical Analysis:

#Disney (DIS.s) share price closed below the low estimates of analysts ($105) and $105.60 (FR 78.6%) resistance. The psychological level $90 marks the nearest support to watch. Breaking below this level shall indicate the asset price will continue extending losses towards the next support at $79.05 (March 2020 low).  On the other hand, a close above the said resistance shall indicate a short-term technical rebound. Resistance includes $126.40 (FR 61.8%) and $141 (FR 50.0%).

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Larince Zhang

Market Analyst 

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