NZDUSD .6164 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technical & Trade ViewNZDUSDBias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6000.6164 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is at .6000Primary pattern objective is .6240 Daily HVNAcceptance above .6165 next pattern confirmationFailure below .6000 opens a test of .590020 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullishInstitutional InsightsWhile the RBNZ led most other DM central banks in starting the cycle, JPMorgan economists expect the Bank to accelerate its hiking pace again to 75bp at the coming meeting after NZ CPI surprised significantly to the upside in 3Q22Analysts at Credit Agricole believe the RBNZ’s aggressive tightening cycle will see NZ lead the rest of the G10 into an economic slowdown, and falling dairy prices on the back of a weak China economy are seeing the NZD underperform. The re-opening of the international border will be a positive for the coming 3M . Soft economic landings locally and internationally will improve the NZD’s prospects over the coming 6-12M.

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The best cash Isas – November 2022

Cash Isas may be making a comeback as rates creep up – here are the best cash Isas on the market today.

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The IndeX Files 15-11-2022

Equities Bounce Back As USD Fall Continues on Dovish Fed Commentary Global equities benchmarks have seen a broadly positive start to the week. On the back of the gains we saw last week, linked to a softer-than-forecast US inflation report, equities traders are looking to extend the rally this week. While yesterday saw some intra-day volatility as bond yields turned higher, indices look to be making a much stronger start across the board on Tuesday. The better tone to trading can be attributed to comments from Fed vice chair Lael Brainard who yesterday commented that a reduced pace of tightening would likely be appropriate from next month. These comments were seen reinforcing the chances of a Fed pivot on the back of that October inflation report last week.US PPI & UK CPILooking ahead, focus will now shift to today’s US PPI release. On the back of last week’s softer-than-forecast PPI reading, equities bulls will be hoping for an equally weak release today, helping pile more pressure on USD. Falling energy prices are also helping feed into equities bullishness this week, particularly in Europe where the DAX continues to improve. In the UK, tomorrow’s inflation data will be closely watched. With fears CPI might rise again as high as 10.5%, the FTSE looks vulnerable given the BOE’s signalling that further rate hikes will likely be necessary. Similarly, any downside surprise however, should see the index well bid, raising hopes for a peak in inflation.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX continues to gather pace here following the breakout above the 14170.79 level. The index is now up more than 20% off the YTD lows. With both MACD and RSI bullish here, the focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above the 14170.79 level, putting focus on 14703.98 next.S&P 500The S&P is now sitting firmly above the 3910 level following the breakout last week which also saw price moving above the local bearish trend line. While above here, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continued push higher towards the 4153 level next and a test of the bear channel top.FTSEThe recent rally in the FTSE has seen the index breaking back above the bullish trend line from YTD lows. With both momentum readings bullish here, the focus remains on a continued push higher. Price is currently stalled around the 7362.6 level with 7575.8 the next objective for bulls.NIKKEIFor now, the rally in the Nikkei is stalled against the 28356.6 resistance, following the breakout above the 27422.9 level. However, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the outlook remains skewed towards higher prices 27422.9 holds as support. Above 28356.6, the 29464.9 level is the next objective for bulls.

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Cisco Flat Ahead of Q3 2022 Report

US tech giant Cisco Systems Inc. is expected to report earnings on Wednesday, 16 November 2022 after market close. The report is for the fiscal quarter ended October 2022. Most analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $0.73 per share for the quarter.

Cisco last reported its earnings results back in August. The network equipment provider reported $0.74 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, narrowly missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.73. Cisco had a net margin of 22.91% and a return on equity of 31.12%. The company had revenue of $13.10 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $12.78 billion. During the same period last year, the company posted earnings per share of $0.76. The company’s quarterly revenue was down 0.2% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, analysts expect Cisco Systems to post $3 EPS for the current fiscal year and $3 EPS for the next fiscal year.

The company has benefitted from the healthy uptake of identity and access, advanced threat, and unified threat management security solutions amid high Internet traffic growth. The Acacia purchase was a key catalyst. In addition to its expanding portfolio, with the launch of 8000 routers based on Silicon One, Nexus Cloud, Calisti, and Panoptica, Cisco also announced AppDynamics Cloud, the next-generation version of its observability platform for cloud native applications.

Cisco’s investments across its security business, focused on cloud-based offerings, are expected to drive growth. Cisco provided a strong outlook for fiscal first quarter 2023 and fiscal 2023.

Investors expect that the quarterly report will show moderate strength. Those who follow the networking giant anticipate sales growth of around 3% and a similarly small rise in revenue. It’s easy to overlook Cisco among the crowd of similar companies. However, this tech giant has a long legacy of success, and whatever it says in the report will have the potential to ripple throughout the tech sector.

Technical Review

Cisco Systems Inc. shares slumped 0.11% to $44.74 on Monday, making for a poor trading session for the stock market, with the US30 down -0.62% at the closing bell, the US100 falling -0.98% and the US500 down -0.89%. Cisco is still trading above its 26-day and 52-day exponential moving averages, and is below its 200-day exponential moving average. However, technical traders will consider the apparent divergence bias seen at the low prices of $41 and $38.56. The bullish pattern, also evident on the monthly period which formed 2 dominant candle patterns since the price tested $38.36, has rebounded up to the 23.6% FR retracement level.

On the daily period, the price still looks flat in the last 2 weeks. While the bias is stable, a move above $46.19 could test the high of $49.94 ($50) recorded in August. On the downside, the $42.25 support could force bulls to post another rebound. However, a move below this level also doesn’t rule out a test of the recent low. RSI is at 56.30 and MACD is still in the buy zone with the signal line parallel to the histogram.

Several research analysts have recently issued forecasts for Cisco prices. StockNews.com set a Buy rating for the company. Credit Suisse Group increased its price target from $60.00 to $65.00 and gave the company an Outperform rating. Barclays cut from an Overweight rating to an Equal Weight rating and lowered their target price for the company from $56.00 to $46.00.  According to MarketBeat, Cisco has an average rating of Moderate Buy and an average price target of $53.68. Cisco has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and ESP in positive territory, and investors may want to consider this stock before the earnings report.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance:1484.50Pivot:1409.75Support:1431.50Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the support line at 1431.50 where the 50% Fibonacci line is located before heading towards the Pivot at 1409.75, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back up to retest the resistance at 1484.50, where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bearish-momentum"
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7 common pension scams to look out for

Pension scams are on the rise and fraudsters are becoming more inventive.

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NASDAQ – What Next?

The US100 is a technology-heavy index that is extremely sensitive to interest rate hikes due to the fact that tech companies have to constantly innovate in order to stay competitive. This means they have to borrow a lot of money. Last week the US100 rose by 8.8%, the most in over two years. The US markets reveled in October’s inflation figures of 7.7% year-on-year (see below).

These figures triggered a butterfly effect, causing a huge rally in risk assets, stocks and bonds. The two-year Treasury yield fell 30 basis points on Friday, its biggest drop since 2008, as markets anticipated a policy shift by the US central bank.

source:cmegroup

The USDIndex fell 4%, its fourth biggest weekly decline on record, loosening its grip on technology stocks. Market participants probably saw a sign that inflation has peaked and that the FED’s action has had the expected impact and will therefore lead to a loosening of central bank monetary policies.

At first glance, it would appear that the skies have suddenly cleared and the bullish rally can still continue, but the bears could rightly argue that the market had already anticipated the decline in inflation causing this rebound, plus it seems clear that next year will be marked by a global recession.

On Sunday Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gave unexpected support to the bearish with his comments at an economic conference hosted by UBS in Australia: “We’re at a point where we can start to think about maybe moving to a slower pace”, but “we’re not going soft… Stop paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the end point is. Until we reduce inflation, that end point is still a long way off.“

Market participants could reassess their bullish stance and wait for the Mid-Term results to come in as the promised Republican tsunami has turned into a ripple, with the Democrats having already retained control of the Senate late on Saturday and pledged on Sunday to tackle the national debt ceiling in the coming weeks. The meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali today could influence the markets, as a warming of relations between the two superpowers could bring positive sentiment for investors.

Technical Analysis

The US100 is currently at $11770 in the cloud and is above the Kijun (L v) and Tenkan (L j); the Lagging Span (L b) is between the two signifying hesitation as to future direction. In the case of a bullish momentum the price could reach $11842 and then $12074, otherwise the price could test its Kijun at $11250 and then test $11058.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Precious Metals Monday 14-11-2022

Metals Rally As USD DropsLast week was an important week for the metals market with both gold and silver seeing strong gains amidst the deepening USD correction we saw. Gold prices are now sitting around 10% off the year’s lows with silver prices up more than 20%. Last week, the big catalyst for the fresh rally we saw was the sharp drop in USD. A much weaker-than-forecast October CPI report has strengthened the calls for the Fed to slow the pace of tightening in December. The subsequent repricing in rates markets reflects this shift in expectations.US Retail SalesLooking ahead this week, metals traders will want to see fresh downside in USD to help keep the rally alive. With this in mind the main focus will be on US retail sales which should help keep USD anchored lower if any surprise weakness is seen. Ahead of that release we also have US PPI which, given what we saw from CPI, should again lean towards a lower USD outcome.Fed Commentary on Watch It will also be prudent this week for metals traders in keep track of incoming Fed commentary. With several FOMC members speaking this week, the Fed’s message will be carefully scrutinized. Last night we saw Fed’s Waller citing his view that October CPI did little to change the Fed’s outlook and noted that US rates were still not that high. If this message is echoed by other Fed members this week, this might underpin USD, capping the rally in metals. On the other hand, if we start to hear a little more optionality in the Fed’s view and members discussing the possibility of a slower pace of hiking in December, this should bring USD under further pressure, allowing metals toom to run higher.Technical ViewsGoldThe breakout in gold prices above the bearish trend line from 2021 highs and above the 1679.77 level has seen the market trading up to just shy of testing the 1791.63 level. With both MACD and RSI firmly bullish here, the focus remains on further upside and a break of said level while 1722.37 holds as support.SilverSimilar to what we’re seeing in gold, silver prices are breaking out currently with the rally having taken the market through several key levels. The beak above the 20.6398 zone is firmly bullish and with both MACD and RSI on side here, the focus is on a break of the 22.3205 level and a continuation higher, while the 20.6398 level holds as support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-14-11-2022"
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Daily Market Outlook, November 14, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 14, 2022 “Markets open the week on a slightly more cautious footing, comments from Fed member Waller cooled risk appetite as the Fed policymaker suggested that equity markets had over reacted to the inflation print as interest rates still had further to go to combat inflationary pressures. The outlier in Asian markets is seen in Chinese equities, which have opened the week with a positive tilt following announcements with respect to Covid restrictions and support for the ailing property sector. In the trading week ahead markets will be seeking further clarity on policy from major central banks, today's focus in the Eurozone will be on speeches from Nagel, Guindos, Centeno and Panetta, in the US it will be Fed speakers Williams and Brainard. The data slate is scant today, with September Industrial production the main focus in the Eurozone, with markets looking for a small gain of 0.7% month over month. In the UK markets eagerly await the much lauded Autumn statement, with the UK Chancellor Hunt making the media rounds over the weekend warning of ‘difficult decisions’ ahead in order to plug the fiscal holes in the national finances. For further insights into the fundaments and trading dynamics for the week ahead please review my Weekly Market Outlook video...”Overnight HeadlinesDollar Steadies As Fed Cautions On Inflation - RTRSFTX Collapse Being Scrutinised By Bahamas Authorities - RTRSEmboldened Xi Jinping Steps Back On To World Stage With G20 Summit - FTChina Dials Back Property Restrictions In Bid To Reverse Economic Slide - WSJChina’s Looser Covid Rules Face First Test With Surging Outbreak - BBGFed’s Waller Says There’s A ‘Ways To Go’ Before Rate Hikes Done - BBGFed Faces Tough Task Deciding When To Stop Raising Rates, Daly Warns - FTBiden Rallies Yoon, Kishida As North Korean Missile Threat Grows - BBGUS Tries To Enlist Allies In Assault On China’s Chip Industry - FTWhite House Official: Biden To Make Clear US Does Not Seek Conflict With China - RTRSSome Russia Sanctions Could Extend Beyond Ukraine War’s End, Yellen Says - WSJYellen Acknowledges ‘Spillovers’ From US Rates, Strong Dollar - BBGUS House Majority Undecided As Democrats Keep Senate Control - WSJDemocratic Congressional Leaders Vow To Address US Debt Limit - RTRSPelosi Urges Debt-Ceiling Vote In Lame-Duck Session To Avoid Risk - BBGIMF Chief Warns On US-China Rivalry, Calls Trump-Era Tariffs Counterproductive - RTRSTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3945TechnicalsPrimary support is 3945Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3935 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.02501.0284 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0250Primary upside objective is 1.0466Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0350Failure below 1.02 opens a test of 1.009020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200 (483mln), 1.0300 (258mln), 1.0370 (361mln), 1.0390 (242mln) GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1660TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1660Primary upside objective 1.20Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1865Failure below 1.1730 opens a test of 1.157020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1715 (557mln)EUR/GBP: 0.8800 (475mln)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143.25139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 143.25Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142 opens a test of 143.1020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: USD/JPY: 140.00 (510mln)EUR/JPY: 146.00 (1.84bln) AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6550.6720 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is .6660Primary upside objective is .6760Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6700Failure below .6600 opens a test of .655020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/ABTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800TechnicalsIntraday 157700 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18325Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000Failure below 15500 opens a test of 1440020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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Market Spotlight: Gold & US CPI

US CPI Up Next Today’s US CPI release will be the main attraction for markets, stealing attention back from the ongoing US midterms results. On the back of the latest .75% hike by the Fed in November, markets are now looking for signs that the Fed will slow the pace of hikes. Chairman Powell mentioned that this might be appropriate within the next couple of meetings. With this in mind, today’s release has clear two-way risk for USD and broader markets.Market Reaction In terms of gauging market reaction to today’s release,  if inflation is seen holding at record levels last month or spiking higher, USD will likely trade higher as traders price in a larger .75% hike in December. In this scenario, gold prices are likely to come off. However, with traders clearly keen to pick a top in USD, any softening of inflation will no doubt skew pricing in favour of a smaller .5% hike in December, pulling USD lower near-term and allowing gold prices to breakout. Technical ViewsGoldFollowing the breakout above the bearish trend line from YTD highs, gold prices have subsequently stalled at a test of the 1722.37 level resistance. However, with momentum studies bullish here, the focus remains on an eventual break higher while the 1679.77 level holds as support. Above 1722.37 and 1791.63 will be the next big hurdle for bulls. Only a shift back below the 1679.77 level negates the current bullish view, with 1618.06 the main support to watch for now.

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Market Update – November 14

• The USD Index closed at 106.389 but had tumbled to a low of 106.28 from an overnight high of 108.44. It’s down from 112.93 on the November 3 FOMC day. Stocks extended gains at the Friday’s close with another solid session, albeit in choppy action amid worries over the bankruptcy of FTX. Yields – 10-year Treasury yield is up 6.7 bp at 3.88%, EGB yields are correcting from the highs seen on Friday, although, the ECB remains on course to tighten rates beyond neutral and start QT next year.
• EUR – above parity at 1.0320.
• JPY – sideways at 139.50
• GBP – turned below 1.1800
• Stocks – US100 to a 1.88% surge, while the US500 was up 0.92%. The US30 edged up 0.1%. The components of the US500 were mixed but a 3% pop in energy and a 2.46% jump in consumer discretionary sectors helped overcome losses in health care and utilities. Today, stocks struggled a bit and corrected some of last week’s gains, although China bourses got a boost from official directives aimed to support the ailing property sector, which added to the slight easing of virus restrictions that were announced last week. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.8% and 0.2% respectively, after Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.1% and -0.2%, weighed down by financials. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.1%.
• Reuters reported that Chinese regulators have told financial institutions to extend more support to property developers to shore up the struggling real estate sector.
• USOil – at $88.40.
• Gold – had its best week since March, while currently holds gains at  1763.
• BTC – slipping into the $16,000 area again.

Today – Xi & Biden in Bali for G20 meeting. SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks & FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (+1.12%) rebounded to 16890 but struggling to break 50-hour SMA.  MAs aligning higher, MACD lines still negative, RSI 53 & flat indicating that this might be a limited bounce. H1 ATR 313.46, Daily ATR 1334.606. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The best one-year fixed savings accounts – November 2022

Earn almost 5% on one-year fixed savings accounts.

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Q3 earnings season: Home Depot Inc.

Home Depot, Inc. is a retailer of building and home improvement goods and products. It sells building materials, home renovation products, lawn and garden products, and home décor items. The company operates in three geographic segments: the United States, Canada and Mexico. It provides home improvement installation services, as well as tool and equipment rental.

The company has a market capitalization of $293.55B and will release its earnings results for the fiscal quarter ending October 2022 this Tuesday, November 15th before the market opens.

Home Depot BPA
Source: nasdaq.com

Zacks ranks Home Depot Rank #3 (Hold) in the Top 23% at #57/252 in the Building Products – Retail industry. For this report, EPS is expected at 4.11 (4.85% y/y) and for the fiscal year at 16.67. Earnings are expected to be 37.93B with an ESP of 0%, which would be a y/y growth of 3.02%. The estimate has had 1 downward and 0 upward revisions in the last 60 days. HD has a P/E ratio of 17.23 and a PEG ratio of 1.53. The company has reported results below the estimate only 1 time in the last 20 reports, in May 2020.

Last quarter the company reported EPS of $5.05 and revenue of $43.79B.

Home Depot Sales reported and Preview
Fuente: money.cnn.com

HD’s third-quarter results likely benefited from continued strong demand for home improvement projects, a strong housing market and continued investment. The company’s average ticket price has increased due to high-value purchases by homebuilders. In this regard, a 6.1% increase in the average ticket is expected, compared to a 2.5% decrease in the number of customer transactions.

HD has benefited significantly from the execution of its One Home Depot programme, which focuses on supply chain expansion, technology investments and digital enhancement. The company’s connected retail strategy and underlying technology infrastructure have been steadily driving web traffic. Growth in digital sales is expected in line with the digital momentum along with Pro and DIY customers.

However, Home Depot could face continued cost pressures in the quarter, driven by inflation, supply chain dynamics and the consumer spending environment amid the recession.

Higher transportation costs, investments in its supply chain and product mix have resulted in a higher cost of goods sold, leading to a lower gross margin expected to be down more than 30%. Higher inventory levels and interest expenses are expected to impact results.

Technical Analysis – Home Depot D1 – $312.26

#HomeDepot D1

#HomeDepot had a bearish outlook during the year until reaching a low of 164.10 in June from where it made a strong upward push to a high of 332.89 before returning to this low again. Currently the price has recovered approximately 70% of the fall with a strong bullish momentum at yesterday’s close trading above 300.0, the 200-day SMA at 302.65 and the 61.8% Fibo at 307.15.

In the case of promising results the price could reach the current highs at 332.89 and even surpass them along with the previous highs of March at 340.44 to head towards 350.00 and if surpassed to the February highs at 374.66.

If not there could be a bounce off the 78.6%-88.6% Fibo retracement ranging from 318.47–325.21 back to the aforementioned lows. If there is a break of this low zone, the price could reach the February 2021 lows at 246.38.

ADX at 17.86 +Di at 22.45 -DI at 13.47, no marked trend after relaxing the downtrend initiated from the 420.29 highs in December 2021.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Aldo Zapien

Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication.

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FOMO Fridays: DAX Breaks Out

US CPI Shock Ignites Equities As we round out another week in financial markets we’re certainly not short of interesting price moves to comment on. This week has seen a slew of key trading developments on the back of the US midterms, US CPI release and changes in China’s COVID policy. Talking with traders ahead of the week, it seems the big move that everyone is focused on is the breakout in equities. While US markets have certainly benefited from the drop in the Dollar, the star of the show this week has been the DAX. So, let’s take a look at what’s caused the move and, as always, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week!What Caused the Move?Dollar DropThe big driver behind the breakout in the DAX this week has been the improvement in risk sentiment linked to a weaker US Dollar. With US inflation having dropped by .5% in October, falling back to 7.7% annually from 8.2% prior, the US Dollar fell sharply as traders began pricing in a smaller .5% hike from the Fed in December. The impact of this shift has been clearly visible across markets this week with risk assets soaring as USD fell.Gas Prices Falling Along with the drop in the US Dollar, the DAX has also been boosted by the ongoing drop in European gas prices. The spike in gas prices over the summer was one of the key economic threats to the eurozone and with those prices now subsiding quickly, the outlook for eurozone businesses and households is improving somewhat. There are hopes that lower energy prices will help tame rampant inflation and, on the back of US inflation softening, traders are anticipating a similar cooling of consumer prices in the single market in coming months which should allow scope for the ECB to hit the brakes on its tightening program, or at least slow its pace.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX this week has seen the market breaking out above the 13672.31 level. The index is now pushing above the 14170.79 level and, with both MACD and RSI bullish here, the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 14703.98 level next. The near-term view remains bullish while 14170.79 holds as support with the index now looking to carve out a fuller bullish reversal.

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