The cautionary tale of FTX and the future of bitcoin

The collapse of FTX has fractured the crypto market, but bitcoin will survive the fallout, argues Dominic Frisby.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/605516/ftx-and-the-future-of-bitcoin
via IFTTT

BOE Under Pressure As UK Inflation Hits 11.1%

UK CPI Soars AgainThe latest UK economic data today makes for troubling reading. CPI was seen spiking higher to 11.1% in October, well above the 10.7% the market was looking for. Marking a full 1% jump from the prior month, this reading brings UK inflation back to its highest level in 41 years. The BOE had noted that there would be some lag in the policy adjustments it’s made this year though, today’s data will leave many questioning how long that lag will be and whether the BOE has done enough?Energy Prices Rise Despite CapLooking at the breakdown of the data, the biggest upside contributions once again came from energy prices. Gas and electricity process were seen rising 129% and 66% respectively. Notably, the increases would have been significantly higher if not for the energy cap with overall CPI projected to have been somewhere closer to 14%. Food and drink prices were seen soaring again by almost 17% y/y, their biggest increase since the late 70’s. In terms of downward contributions, transport costs slowed to 9% from 11% prior, while second hand car sales fell 3% y/y.Economic Outlook DarkeningThe near-term outlook for the UK economy on the back of the data is bleak. Data earlier this week showed unemployment creeping back up. While wages were seen rising, they’re still at a far lower pace than inflation meaning that real wages are falling further as CPI accelerates. Tomorrow’s UK budget is expected to further worsen the situation for households and businesses with spending cuts and widespread tax hikes planned.BOE In FocusThe fear now is that the BOE is going to have to tighten more aggressively at the December BOE meeting. The BOE had signalled last time around a preference to reduce the pace of tightening given the weaker state of the UK economy. However, with CPI still rising above BOE forecasts there seems to be little option. The Russia -Ukraine war is showing no signs of slowing down and with the UK government potentially removing the energy cap in April next year, the BOE needs to bring inflation down or risk price hikes becoming entrenched at elevated levels, making their task more difficult.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe breakout above the bear trend line and above the 1.1474 level has seen the market trading up towards the 1.2195 level. With both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a test of this level next while price holds above the broken trend line as support. With the retail market only around 65$ short, there is still plenty of room for the move to gather more momentum.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/boe-under-pressure-as-uk-inflation-hits-11-1"
via IFTTT

Market Update – November 16 – Risk aversion picked up

• The USDIndex’s safe-haven gains fizzled and held at the low 106.00 area. Yields had plunged on the PPI data, but 5-year at closed at 3.890%,the 2-year at 4.326%, and the 10-year at 3.772%, respectively. Stocks supported by coller PPI but pressured afterwards as news of a Russian-made missile strike in Poland sparked fears of heightened geopolitical tensions. US President Biden who said the missile was unlikely to have been fired by Russia helped to calm nerves.
• EUR – retests once again the 1.040.
• JPY – holds at 139.50, while Risk-sensitive Antipodeans, AUDUSD is up at 0.6782, and NZDUSD at 0.6175.  Australian wages boasted the largest rise in a decade last quarter as a super-tight labour market finally made itself felt, raising the risk of further rate hikes.
• GBP – steady at 1.1860 – UK CPI jumped to 11.1% y/y in October from 10.1% y/y in the previous month. Core inflation failed to decelerate as anticipated and held steady at 6.5% y/y.
• 
• Stocks – closed in the green with gains of 1.45% on the US100, 0.87% on the US500, and 0.17% on the US30. But they are well off of early highs where the future showed the US100 knee-jerking nearly 3% on the data, while the US500 was up 1.9%, with the US30  up over 1.1%. Better than expected earnings/guidance from Walmart and hopes for a bounce in Chinese growth supported too.
• USOil – at $85.95
• Gold – jumps to 1787, but steady so far today.

Today: US Retail Sales amd Canadian Inflation along.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY retested the 145.30 highs, MAs aligning higher, MACD line turned positive but signal line remaisn below 0, RSI 59 btu flattened. H1 ATR 0.391, Daily ATR 1.691. 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /633314/
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: Paris Overtakes London As Europe's Top Stock Market

Paris vs LondonRivalry between London and Paris traders undoubtedly increased this week amidst news that the Paris stock exchange overtook London in value for the first time since record started in 2003. According to Bloomberg, the Paris stock exchange is now worth roughly EUR 2.823 trillion, while the London stock exchange is worth EUR 2.821 trillion.UK Midweights SufferingThe switch in positions has been mainly attributed to the sharp underperformance of UK mid-weighted firms which have been hampered this year by a weaker GBP, higher energy costs and ongoing supply issues (Brexit/covid).  Additionally, the cost-of-living crisis has hit UK consumers hard, weighing on demand for these companies' products and services.French Luxury Brands BoomingWhile the UK stock market has been in rough waters, the French stock market has actually seen a boost this year, linked largely to increased sales from luxury fashion brands. With the return of Chinese demand this year, shares in companies such as Lous Vuitton and Chanel have soared, lifting the overall stock market price.Brexit WoesIn truth, the London stock market has been on the decline since the Brexit referendum in 2016. The legal activation of Brexit has obviously exacerbated this with many investment banks moving back to Paris and Berlin or moving large numbers of traders away from the city. With London now losing the top spot in Europe, political pressure on the government will no doubt increase.Technical ViewsCAC 40The rally in the CAC 40 this year has seen the market advancing more than 18% off the YTD lows. Recently breaking through the bearish trend line since YTD highs, and with both MACD and RSI bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher near-term with 6777.45 the next upside level to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-paris-overtakes-london-as-europe-s-top-stock-market"
via IFTTT

NZDUSD .6164 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technical & Trade ViewNZDUSDBias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6000.6164 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is at .6000Primary pattern objective is .6240 Daily HVNAcceptance above .6165 next pattern confirmationFailure below .6000 opens a test of .590020 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullishInstitutional InsightsWhile the RBNZ led most other DM central banks in starting the cycle, JPMorgan economists expect the Bank to accelerate its hiking pace again to 75bp at the coming meeting after NZ CPI surprised significantly to the upside in 3Q22Analysts at Credit Agricole believe the RBNZ’s aggressive tightening cycle will see NZ lead the rest of the G10 into an economic slowdown, and falling dairy prices on the back of a weak China economy are seeing the NZD underperform. The re-opening of the international border will be a positive for the coming 3M . Soft economic landings locally and internationally will improve the NZD’s prospects over the coming 6-12M.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nzdusd-6164-target-achieved-new-pattern-emerging"
via IFTTT

The best cash Isas – November 2022

Cash Isas may be making a comeback as rates creep up – here are the best cash Isas on the market today.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/savings/isas/stocks-and-shares-isas/the-best-cash-isas-november-2022
via IFTTT

The IndeX Files 15-11-2022

Equities Bounce Back As USD Fall Continues on Dovish Fed Commentary Global equities benchmarks have seen a broadly positive start to the week. On the back of the gains we saw last week, linked to a softer-than-forecast US inflation report, equities traders are looking to extend the rally this week. While yesterday saw some intra-day volatility as bond yields turned higher, indices look to be making a much stronger start across the board on Tuesday. The better tone to trading can be attributed to comments from Fed vice chair Lael Brainard who yesterday commented that a reduced pace of tightening would likely be appropriate from next month. These comments were seen reinforcing the chances of a Fed pivot on the back of that October inflation report last week.US PPI & UK CPILooking ahead, focus will now shift to today’s US PPI release. On the back of last week’s softer-than-forecast PPI reading, equities bulls will be hoping for an equally weak release today, helping pile more pressure on USD. Falling energy prices are also helping feed into equities bullishness this week, particularly in Europe where the DAX continues to improve. In the UK, tomorrow’s inflation data will be closely watched. With fears CPI might rise again as high as 10.5%, the FTSE looks vulnerable given the BOE’s signalling that further rate hikes will likely be necessary. Similarly, any downside surprise however, should see the index well bid, raising hopes for a peak in inflation.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX continues to gather pace here following the breakout above the 14170.79 level. The index is now up more than 20% off the YTD lows. With both MACD and RSI bullish here, the focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above the 14170.79 level, putting focus on 14703.98 next.S&P 500The S&P is now sitting firmly above the 3910 level following the breakout last week which also saw price moving above the local bearish trend line. While above here, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continued push higher towards the 4153 level next and a test of the bear channel top.FTSEThe recent rally in the FTSE has seen the index breaking back above the bullish trend line from YTD lows. With both momentum readings bullish here, the focus remains on a continued push higher. Price is currently stalled around the 7362.6 level with 7575.8 the next objective for bulls.NIKKEIFor now, the rally in the Nikkei is stalled against the 28356.6 resistance, following the breakout above the 27422.9 level. However, with both MACD and RSI bullish, the outlook remains skewed towards higher prices 27422.9 holds as support. Above 28356.6, the 29464.9 level is the next objective for bulls.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-15-11-2022"
via IFTTT

Cisco Flat Ahead of Q3 2022 Report

US tech giant Cisco Systems Inc. is expected to report earnings on Wednesday, 16 November 2022 after market close. The report is for the fiscal quarter ended October 2022. Most analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $0.73 per share for the quarter.

Cisco last reported its earnings results back in August. The network equipment provider reported $0.74 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, narrowly missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.73. Cisco had a net margin of 22.91% and a return on equity of 31.12%. The company had revenue of $13.10 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $12.78 billion. During the same period last year, the company posted earnings per share of $0.76. The company’s quarterly revenue was down 0.2% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, analysts expect Cisco Systems to post $3 EPS for the current fiscal year and $3 EPS for the next fiscal year.

The company has benefitted from the healthy uptake of identity and access, advanced threat, and unified threat management security solutions amid high Internet traffic growth. The Acacia purchase was a key catalyst. In addition to its expanding portfolio, with the launch of 8000 routers based on Silicon One, Nexus Cloud, Calisti, and Panoptica, Cisco also announced AppDynamics Cloud, the next-generation version of its observability platform for cloud native applications.

Cisco’s investments across its security business, focused on cloud-based offerings, are expected to drive growth. Cisco provided a strong outlook for fiscal first quarter 2023 and fiscal 2023.

Investors expect that the quarterly report will show moderate strength. Those who follow the networking giant anticipate sales growth of around 3% and a similarly small rise in revenue. It’s easy to overlook Cisco among the crowd of similar companies. However, this tech giant has a long legacy of success, and whatever it says in the report will have the potential to ripple throughout the tech sector.

Technical Review

Cisco Systems Inc. shares slumped 0.11% to $44.74 on Monday, making for a poor trading session for the stock market, with the US30 down -0.62% at the closing bell, the US100 falling -0.98% and the US500 down -0.89%. Cisco is still trading above its 26-day and 52-day exponential moving averages, and is below its 200-day exponential moving average. However, technical traders will consider the apparent divergence bias seen at the low prices of $41 and $38.56. The bullish pattern, also evident on the monthly period which formed 2 dominant candle patterns since the price tested $38.36, has rebounded up to the 23.6% FR retracement level.

On the daily period, the price still looks flat in the last 2 weeks. While the bias is stable, a move above $46.19 could test the high of $49.94 ($50) recorded in August. On the downside, the $42.25 support could force bulls to post another rebound. However, a move below this level also doesn’t rule out a test of the recent low. RSI is at 56.30 and MACD is still in the buy zone with the signal line parallel to the histogram.

Several research analysts have recently issued forecasts for Cisco prices. StockNews.com set a Buy rating for the company. Credit Suisse Group increased its price target from $60.00 to $65.00 and gave the company an Outperform rating. Barclays cut from an Overweight rating to an Equal Weight rating and lowered their target price for the company from $56.00 to $46.00.  According to MarketBeat, Cisco has an average rating of Moderate Buy and an average price target of $53.68. Cisco has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and ESP in positive territory, and investors may want to consider this stock before the earnings report.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /633100/
via IFTTT

Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance:1484.50Pivot:1409.75Support:1431.50Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the support line at 1431.50 where the 50% Fibonacci line is located before heading towards the Pivot at 1409.75, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back up to retest the resistance at 1484.50, where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bearish-momentum"
via IFTTT

7 common pension scams to look out for

Pension scams are on the rise and fraudsters are becoming more inventive.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/pensions/605511/pension-scams
via IFTTT

NASDAQ – What Next?

The US100 is a technology-heavy index that is extremely sensitive to interest rate hikes due to the fact that tech companies have to constantly innovate in order to stay competitive. This means they have to borrow a lot of money. Last week the US100 rose by 8.8%, the most in over two years. The US markets reveled in October’s inflation figures of 7.7% year-on-year (see below).

These figures triggered a butterfly effect, causing a huge rally in risk assets, stocks and bonds. The two-year Treasury yield fell 30 basis points on Friday, its biggest drop since 2008, as markets anticipated a policy shift by the US central bank.

source:cmegroup

The USDIndex fell 4%, its fourth biggest weekly decline on record, loosening its grip on technology stocks. Market participants probably saw a sign that inflation has peaked and that the FED’s action has had the expected impact and will therefore lead to a loosening of central bank monetary policies.

At first glance, it would appear that the skies have suddenly cleared and the bullish rally can still continue, but the bears could rightly argue that the market had already anticipated the decline in inflation causing this rebound, plus it seems clear that next year will be marked by a global recession.

On Sunday Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gave unexpected support to the bearish with his comments at an economic conference hosted by UBS in Australia: “We’re at a point where we can start to think about maybe moving to a slower pace”, but “we’re not going soft… Stop paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the end point is. Until we reduce inflation, that end point is still a long way off.“

Market participants could reassess their bullish stance and wait for the Mid-Term results to come in as the promised Republican tsunami has turned into a ripple, with the Democrats having already retained control of the Senate late on Saturday and pledged on Sunday to tackle the national debt ceiling in the coming weeks. The meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali today could influence the markets, as a warming of relations between the two superpowers could bring positive sentiment for investors.

Technical Analysis

The US100 is currently at $11770 in the cloud and is above the Kijun (L v) and Tenkan (L j); the Lagging Span (L b) is between the two signifying hesitation as to future direction. In the case of a bullish momentum the price could reach $11842 and then $12074, otherwise the price could test its Kijun at $11250 and then test $11058.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

from HF Analysis /632729/
via IFTTT

Precious Metals Monday 14-11-2022

Metals Rally As USD DropsLast week was an important week for the metals market with both gold and silver seeing strong gains amidst the deepening USD correction we saw. Gold prices are now sitting around 10% off the year’s lows with silver prices up more than 20%. Last week, the big catalyst for the fresh rally we saw was the sharp drop in USD. A much weaker-than-forecast October CPI report has strengthened the calls for the Fed to slow the pace of tightening in December. The subsequent repricing in rates markets reflects this shift in expectations.US Retail SalesLooking ahead this week, metals traders will want to see fresh downside in USD to help keep the rally alive. With this in mind the main focus will be on US retail sales which should help keep USD anchored lower if any surprise weakness is seen. Ahead of that release we also have US PPI which, given what we saw from CPI, should again lean towards a lower USD outcome.Fed Commentary on Watch It will also be prudent this week for metals traders in keep track of incoming Fed commentary. With several FOMC members speaking this week, the Fed’s message will be carefully scrutinized. Last night we saw Fed’s Waller citing his view that October CPI did little to change the Fed’s outlook and noted that US rates were still not that high. If this message is echoed by other Fed members this week, this might underpin USD, capping the rally in metals. On the other hand, if we start to hear a little more optionality in the Fed’s view and members discussing the possibility of a slower pace of hiking in December, this should bring USD under further pressure, allowing metals toom to run higher.Technical ViewsGoldThe breakout in gold prices above the bearish trend line from 2021 highs and above the 1679.77 level has seen the market trading up to just shy of testing the 1791.63 level. With both MACD and RSI firmly bullish here, the focus remains on further upside and a break of said level while 1722.37 holds as support.SilverSimilar to what we’re seeing in gold, silver prices are breaking out currently with the rally having taken the market through several key levels. The beak above the 20.6398 zone is firmly bullish and with both MACD and RSI on side here, the focus is on a break of the 22.3205 level and a continuation higher, while the 20.6398 level holds as support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-14-11-2022"
via IFTTT

Daily Market Outlook, November 14, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 14, 2022 “Markets open the week on a slightly more cautious footing, comments from Fed member Waller cooled risk appetite as the Fed policymaker suggested that equity markets had over reacted to the inflation print as interest rates still had further to go to combat inflationary pressures. The outlier in Asian markets is seen in Chinese equities, which have opened the week with a positive tilt following announcements with respect to Covid restrictions and support for the ailing property sector. In the trading week ahead markets will be seeking further clarity on policy from major central banks, today's focus in the Eurozone will be on speeches from Nagel, Guindos, Centeno and Panetta, in the US it will be Fed speakers Williams and Brainard. The data slate is scant today, with September Industrial production the main focus in the Eurozone, with markets looking for a small gain of 0.7% month over month. In the UK markets eagerly await the much lauded Autumn statement, with the UK Chancellor Hunt making the media rounds over the weekend warning of ‘difficult decisions’ ahead in order to plug the fiscal holes in the national finances. For further insights into the fundaments and trading dynamics for the week ahead please review my Weekly Market Outlook video...”Overnight HeadlinesDollar Steadies As Fed Cautions On Inflation - RTRSFTX Collapse Being Scrutinised By Bahamas Authorities - RTRSEmboldened Xi Jinping Steps Back On To World Stage With G20 Summit - FTChina Dials Back Property Restrictions In Bid To Reverse Economic Slide - WSJChina’s Looser Covid Rules Face First Test With Surging Outbreak - BBGFed’s Waller Says There’s A ‘Ways To Go’ Before Rate Hikes Done - BBGFed Faces Tough Task Deciding When To Stop Raising Rates, Daly Warns - FTBiden Rallies Yoon, Kishida As North Korean Missile Threat Grows - BBGUS Tries To Enlist Allies In Assault On China’s Chip Industry - FTWhite House Official: Biden To Make Clear US Does Not Seek Conflict With China - RTRSSome Russia Sanctions Could Extend Beyond Ukraine War’s End, Yellen Says - WSJYellen Acknowledges ‘Spillovers’ From US Rates, Strong Dollar - BBGUS House Majority Undecided As Democrats Keep Senate Control - WSJDemocratic Congressional Leaders Vow To Address US Debt Limit - RTRSPelosi Urges Debt-Ceiling Vote In Lame-Duck Session To Avoid Risk - BBGIMF Chief Warns On US-China Rivalry, Calls Trump-Era Tariffs Counterproductive - RTRSTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3945TechnicalsPrimary support is 3945Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3935 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.02501.0284 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0250Primary upside objective is 1.0466Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0350Failure below 1.02 opens a test of 1.009020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200 (483mln), 1.0300 (258mln), 1.0370 (361mln), 1.0390 (242mln) GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1660TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1660Primary upside objective 1.20Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1865Failure below 1.1730 opens a test of 1.157020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1715 (557mln)EUR/GBP: 0.8800 (475mln)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143.25139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 143.25Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142 opens a test of 143.1020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: USD/JPY: 140.00 (510mln)EUR/JPY: 146.00 (1.84bln) AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6550.6720 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is .6660Primary upside objective is .6760Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6700Failure below .6600 opens a test of .655020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/ABTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800TechnicalsIntraday 157700 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18325Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000Failure below 15500 opens a test of 1440020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-november-14-2022"
via IFTTT

Market Spotlight: Gold & US CPI

US CPI Up Next Today’s US CPI release will be the main attraction for markets, stealing attention back from the ongoing US midterms results. On the back of the latest .75% hike by the Fed in November, markets are now looking for signs that the Fed will slow the pace of hikes. Chairman Powell mentioned that this might be appropriate within the next couple of meetings. With this in mind, today’s release has clear two-way risk for USD and broader markets.Market Reaction In terms of gauging market reaction to today’s release,  if inflation is seen holding at record levels last month or spiking higher, USD will likely trade higher as traders price in a larger .75% hike in December. In this scenario, gold prices are likely to come off. However, with traders clearly keen to pick a top in USD, any softening of inflation will no doubt skew pricing in favour of a smaller .5% hike in December, pulling USD lower near-term and allowing gold prices to breakout. Technical ViewsGoldFollowing the breakout above the bearish trend line from YTD highs, gold prices have subsequently stalled at a test of the 1722.37 level resistance. However, with momentum studies bullish here, the focus remains on an eventual break higher while the 1679.77 level holds as support. Above 1722.37 and 1791.63 will be the next big hurdle for bulls. Only a shift back below the 1679.77 level negates the current bullish view, with 1618.06 the main support to watch for now.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gold-and-us-cpi"
via IFTTT