BTC – On the Ropes!

The entire Cryptocurrency ecosystem is suffering a real shock, partly due to the loss of investor confidence following the earthquake caused by the fall of the FTX exchange platform and the house investment fund Alameda, which both belong to Sam Bankman-Fried. The aftershocks were long overdue, and Genesis, an American trading company which specializes in crypto lending and which mainly targets institutional clients, could become the first big victim of the FTX-Alameda affair. This turmoil has served Bitcoin, which is trying hard to parry the blows, and is currently below the level of $16,000 at $15,633.

In order to avoid bankruptcy Genesis has engaged in a real race for financing up to 1 billion dollars. In this context, the firm has appealed to the investment fund Apollo Global Management as well as to Binance but has suffered a re-buff. The exchange platform explained that a potential conflict of interest with the economic model of Genesis would be at the origin of its withdrawal. Last night the company announced that it was revising its need for refinancing downwards, from 1 billion dollars to 500 million. However, the company said it had no plans to file for bankruptcy ‘imminently’.

Source: @Genesis sur Twitter

Already today, crypto broker Genesis warned of the risk of bankruptcy due to contagion from the rapid demise of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire, according to Bloomberg .

This heavy climate has been all the more exacerbated by the return of the Dollar as a safe haven, the surge in the number of Covid cases in China, and the hawkish remarks of certain members of the FED as well as the continuation of the war in Ukraine which could engender a risk of nuclear accident.

Technical Analysis

BTC price is currently at the $15,700 level below its KIJUN (Lv) and Tenkan (Lj) cloud; the lagging span (Lb) is located below the cloud and its partners clearly showing a bearish momentum. This decline could lead the price to its lowest level at $15,428, and if it is broken it could reach its support at the level of $14,000 for a second time. Conversely, if the price starts to rise again, it could reach $18,354.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Kader Djellouli

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The IndeX Files 22-11-2022

Equities Rally Pauses Amidst Fed HawkishnessIt’s been a rather muted start to the week for benchmark global equities indices. On the back of the wave of better risk appetite we saw following the US October CPI report, markets have lost their shine due to a combination of better-than-expected US retail sales, hawkish Fed commentary and fresh fears regarding China lockdown risks.Market pricing for a large Fed hike in December is creeping up again in response to recent Fed comments. Last week, we heard Fed’s Daly calling for the Fed to hike rates beyond the current projected peak. This week, Fed’s Mester echoed that sentiment saying that Fed policy needed to be more restrictive, and that the Fed was “barely there” on rates so far. If this recent theme continues, and particularly if we see any upside surprise in the next inflation report, equities might well turn lower again.China Lockdown FearsOn the China front, news this week of two fresh covid deaths in Beijing have sparked concern that the region might be headed for fresh lockdowns. With China still sticking to its zero covid policy for now, there is a real risk of such measures being announced, particularly if further fatalities are noted. With plenty of market focus recently on potential reopening in China, such news would likely fuel sharp downside in equities markets, reflecting disappointment.Technical ViewsDAXThe breakout above the bearish trend line from YTD highs is holding for now. Price is currently sitting atop the 14170.79 level and with both MACD and RSI bullish the focus is on a continuation higher towards the 14703.98 level next. To the downside, 13672.31 is the nig support to note.S&P 500The rally in the S&P, framed by the corrective bull channel off the YTD lows, is fast approaching a test of the bearish trend line from YTD highs. This is a key area for the market and a break above there will be firmly bullish. To the downside, initial support is at the 3910 level, underpinning price currently, with 3814 and the bull channel low sitting beneath.FTSEThe rally off the YTD lows is continuing with the index attempting to break higher again this week. Price is fast approaching a test of the bear channel top, with structural resistance at 7575.8 – 7678.8 sitting just above. With momentum studies supportive, outlook remains bullish while the market holds above 7362.6.NIKKEIThe rally in the NIKKEI stalled into a test of the 28356.6 resistance last week. However, the recent bull move remains intact, with momentum studies supportive, and while price holds above the 27422.9 level, the focus is on a breakout higher and a continuation towards the next resistance level at 29464.9

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Commodities In Dead End?

Oil prices have backed up after reports that OPEC+ may consider output increases at the December 4 meeting was denied. More precisely, Saudi denied oil output hike discussion, and clarified that OPEC+ was sticking with oil output cuts and could take further measures to balance the market amid falling prices.

That earlier rumor surprised the market, especially after the recent decision to trim supply. And it added to the overnight drop in prices amid rising concerns that China would not be opening up its economy due to the pick up in covid cases and the first deaths since the summer. WTI oil fell to $75.08, a new low for the year, before climbing to $79.86. Brent surged back to $87.48 after diving to $82.32.

Oil markets continue to keep a close eye on the demand outlook and monetary policy expectations. Fed officials have pushed back against overly optimistic market expectations for the policy outlook, and concern that China’s Covid restrictions will be tightened once again have put pressure on oil prices over the past week. Gas prices meanwhile eye the EU’s renewed attempt to agree on a price cap when energy ministers meet this week.

Oil prices corrected sharply lower last week and have remained under pressure even today at 80.50 area, as the demand outlook was dented by fading hope that China would ease virus restrictions and add further stimulus. China reported the first covid-related deaths in many months over the weekend, which fueled fear of a renewed tightening of Covid curbs. At the same time, the PBOC last week warned of inflation risks and seemed to flag the limits to monetary policy support. WTI extended losses to below USD 80 per barrel, the lowest in over seven weeks.

The highly uncertain supply output and the EU’s ban of Russian crude flows, which kicks in next month, should keep a floor under oil prices mid-term. However, as Europe rushed to fill up on Russian diesel ahead of the plan, and European refiners seem to be oversupplied with crude for now, the prospect of future shortages is enough to counterbalance demand concerns at the moment.

Gold prices corrected lower last week and have remained under pressure so far this week, as risk aversion picked up and the USD rather than bullion benefited from haven flows. The precious metal is currently trading at $1,745.57 as Fed officials continued to push back against overly optimistic market view on the Fed’s policy outlook. Gold had made quite a come-back from lows around the USD 1,630 mark earlier in the month, but remains at the mercy of policy outlooks and overall sentiment.

Agricultural commodity prices mostly corrected lower, and wheat futures in particular dropped to the lowest in nearly three months, as the supply outlook improved. There was some uncertainty over the outlook for the Black Sea Grain initiative, but Russia eventually agreed to extend the UN-brokered deal. This means a trade corridor for vessels carrying Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea will remain in place for another four months from November. Ukrainian authorities reported that the country was able to export more than 11 million tonnes of grain by ship since the start of the deal on August 1st. That went a long way to ease concerns over global shortages. In line with this, datafrom the USDA’s WASDE report increased projections for world supply and ending stocks for the upcoming marketing year, as higher output in Australia and Kazakhstan offset potential declines in Argentina and the EU.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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It’s time to focus on Fuller’s

The pub sector has had a torrid two years, but this group is resilient and poised to prosper. We take a closer look at Fuller’s.

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Market Spotlight: Factors Driving The Aussie

Aussie Slips on Fresh USD RallyThe failure at the bear channel top in the Aussie runs the risk of seeing the current 2022 downtrend continue. The Aussie was one of the key beneficiaries of the move lower in USD over the last fortnight and the recent rebound has weighed sharply on AUD, fuelling a quick unwinding of late longs. Recent hawkish Fed commentary and better-than-forecast US data is underpinning USD here, casting shadows over the near-term outlook for the Aussie. This week’s FOMC minutes will be closely watched. If the Fed is seen to be more open to a lower hike in December, this should help curtail the USD rally, allowing AUD to recover. However, if the Fed is seen to be more hawkish than expected in its outlook, this will certainly drag AUD lower.China COVID ImpactNews this week of 2 new covid deaths in Beijing is also adding to fears of fresh lockdowns in China which would be highly bearish for AUD given the importance of Chinese demand for Aussie exports. The China reopening story has been a key upside driver of risk assets recently. If this outlook starts to alter round further covid deaths and heightened lockdown fears, this will be heavily bearish for AUD. However, if China is seen to handle the outbreak without fresh lockdowns, keeping the reopening narrative intact, this will be bullish for AUD near-term.Technical ViewsAUDUSDThe rally off the YTD lows has seen the market trading back up to test the top of the bear channel which is holding for now. With momentum studies still bullish, the breakout above .6535 is important and while price holds above this level, risks of a channel break remain elevated. However, should price move back below this level, a resumption of the longer term downtrend looks likely.

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AUDCAD Targeting A .9070 Test

Technical & Trade ViewAUDCADTrade ViewBias: Bullish Above Bearish below .8830TechnicalsPrimary support is .8830, watch for bullish reversal patterns herePrimary upside objective .9070Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .8980Failure below .8830 opens a test of .878020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishInstitutional InsightsAnalysts at Credit Agricole note ‘While the Australian economy remains strong, the RBA believes it can be less aggressive than the Fed as Australia is not experiencing a wage-price spiral like the US. A falling Australian-US rate differential along with China’s weak growth will keep the AUD under downward pressure in the coming 3-6M. A soft economic landing locally and globally and recovery in China’s growth improve AUD/USD’s prospects from mid-2023 onward’Analysts at Scotia Bank note ‘The CAD has underperformed somewhat versus most of its major currency peers this week, a pattern that has become common as Q4 has progressed. The generally softer USD tone that has evolved since Sep’s valuation extremes has spilled over into North American FX generally with the MXN gaining only modestly alongside the CAD in contrast to more significant gains for the likes of the AUD and NZD as well as the GBP, EUR and JPY versus the weaker USD. CAD losses on some key crosses—EURCAD, GBPCAD, CADJPY—look poised to extend as the CAD continues to find it hard to move out of the USD’s broader shadow’

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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:4173.25Pivot:3913.25Support:3751.75Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly towards the 4173.25 resistance level , where the 78.6% Fibonacci Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price may fall back down to retest the pivot line at 3913.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum

Type: Bearish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance: 1433.75Pivot:1409.75Support:1391.75Preferred Case:We have a bearish bias on the H4 chart. In addition, price is below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, price may continue to move towards the Pivot at 1409.75, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.Alternative Scenario:Price may rise again to retest the resistance at 1433.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

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Centrica: Shares soar after UK autumn statement

Centrica, Daily

In the latest autumn statement, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt mentioned that the windfall tax on profits of oil and gas companies will be increased significantly (from 25% to 35%). The measure is valid until March 1, 2028. In addition, from January 1 next year, a 45% tax rate will be imposed on the income of low-carbon power generation companies (wind power, nuclear power). The two measures are expected to generate around £14bn in revenue for the 2023/24 financial year.

Shares in Centrica, the parent company of Britain’s largest energy supplier British Gas,  extended gains and retested four-month highs following the announcement. Some analysts mentioned that the surge in shares of local energy companies could be due to a shorter-than-first-expected extension of the tax deadline. In addition, the cost of generating electricity from gas-fired power plants is used as a benchmark for UK wholesale electricity prices. So higher wholesale prices actually benefit renewable energy companies and nuclear power generators.

Despite this, the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) confirmed a recession in the UK and pessimistically predicted that the UK economy would not return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2024. The recession has adversely affected many industries, including oil and gas. Prices fell as demand slumped, reducing revenue for these companies. Tighter credit conditions will cause explorers and producers to pay higher interest rates when raising capital, hurting future earnings.

According to Centrica’s latest interim results in July 2022, the company has achieved impressive results. This includes an adjusted operating profit of £857m (£140m in 2021), an increase in adjusted EPS to 10.2p (1.3p in 2021), net cash of £316m in H1 2022 (net debt of £93m), and free cash flow from continuing operations of £643m (up 22.71% year-on-year).

Technical Analysis:

#Centrica is showing a strong rebound in Q4 2022. After finding support above the H1 2022 low (£0.6564), the company’s share price rose sharply to a high of £0.9616, its highest level since June 2019. As of Friday’s close, #Centrica remained under pressure below the resistance zone of £0.9350 (£0.9550.) A close above this area would allow the bulls to continue testing the June 2019 high at £0.9700 and then £1.0600. Instead, technical pullbacks should focus on support at £0.8800, £0.8300 and then £0.8000.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Larince Zhang 

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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Market Update – November 21 – USD continues to recover

• The USD Index continues to recover, back over 107.00 to 107.45, next resistance today 107.70 and the 200-hrMA as risk appetite sours in Asia with more COVID cases in Beijing and a rise in deaths. Stocks lower & Oil at 2-mth lows to start the week. Chinese PBOC kept rates unchanged at 3.65%. More Hawkish talk from Fed officials Bostic (2024 voter) believes that another 75bps-100bps tightening will be warranted and sufficient to rein in inflation. help the USD sentiment. 
• EUR – declined from 200- day resistance at 1.0385, ao Friday and is under 1.0300 today at 200-hr MA at 1.0270. 
• JPY – moves away from 140.00 zone to 140.75 next resistance 141.00. 
• GBP – Sterling dips to test 1.1800 today down from 1.1950 highs on Friday and a rejection of 1.2000 last week. 
• Stocks – Wall Street closed flat on Friday, TSLA -1.63%. on product recalls and worries over MUSK workload. US500 was best performer +18.78 (+0.48%) at 3965,  FUTS trades at 3960 now. 

• USOil – fell significantly again to $77.75 Friday before recovering over $80.00. But is subdued today under  $80.00, following risk off mood to start the week. 
• Gold – continued to decline from last week’s $1780 highs, tares at $1745 now at the 200-hr MA support.     
• BTC – sentiment woes continue (FTX owes $3bln to top 50 creditors (nos.1 owed $222 million). Trades down to $16k.  

Today – US CPI, 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.64%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip below 1.7600 yesterday to test 1.7780 now, next resistance 1.7800.  MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00274, Daily ATR 0.02113. 

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

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Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum

Type: Bullish MomentumKey Levels:Resistance:675.00Pivot:661.50Support:654.75Preferred Case:On the H4 chart with price crossing the Ichimoku cloud to the upside, we are looking for price to possibly head towards the resistance at 675.00, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back up and head towards the pivot at 661.50 where the 20% Fibonacci line is located.Fundamentals:There are no major news

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Bill Dinning: Britain is a bargain – but global stocks could fall further

Andrew Van Sickle talks to Bill Dinning ahead of the MoneyWeek Wealth Summit to get his views on some of the hottest topics in finance today.

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Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis November 18, 2022

Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis November 18, 2022Watch yesterday's live market and trade analysis session here! Markets are moving, join me every Thursday for 'Real Time Actionable Analysis' on over 20 charts, where I review current positions & some high probability setups, join me in real-time at - @ 1pm GMT next Thursday - register here for the session here>>> https://rb.gy/mmo73x #PlantheTradeTradethePlan #ManageYourRISK #ProcessOverOutcome #PlayingtheProbabilities #forex #futurestrading #StockTrading #tickmill_official #PalmTreeTrader

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Buying vs renting: as mortgage rates rise, which is cheaper?

In the UK, buying a home has traditionally been the preferred option over renting. But is that still true? Rebecca Goodman asks: which makes more sense financially - buying or renting?

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