Events to Look Out For Next Week

It’s a massive week ahead, with a heavy dose of global data releases including US and Canada jobs, Eurozone Inflation, OPEC Meeting, Chinese PMI, Canada GDP and central bankers’ speeches. So far, markets have taken the Fed minutes as a sign that US policy makers are supporting a tapering of rate hikes, which puts pressure on the US Dollar and supported stock, hence remarks from Chair Powell and President Lagarde could dominate attention next week, along with NFP.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday  – 28 November 2022

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• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.4% m/m in October from 0.6% last month.
• ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 14:00)

Tuesday – 29 November 2022

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• Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 08:00) – GDP for Q3 is expected lower at 0.2% q/q and headline at 1.6% y/y from 2.8% y/y.
• Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – GDP for Q3 is expected lower at 0.4% q/q from 0.8% q/q but headline should rise to 3.5% y/y from 3.3% y/y.
• CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to ease to 100.0 from 102.5 in October, versus a 17-month low of 95.7 in July. We expect the present situation index to fall to a 19-month low of 133.3 from 138.9 in October. The expectations index is expected to fall to 77.8 from 78.1 in October, versus a 9-year low of 65.3 in July. We expect the 1-year inflation measure to hold steady from 7.0% in October, versus an all-time high of 7.9% in June. We’ve seen a modest confidence updraft since mid-year on net, though all of the measures have deteriorated sharply from mid-2021 peaks. Net gains since Q2 likely reflect the summer pullback in gasoline prices before a partial reversal of this relief into Q4. The surveys face headwinds from the mortgage rate surge and mounting recession fears.

Wednesday – 30 November 2022

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• Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The November NBS Manufacturing PMI in China is expected at 50.0 from 49.2.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to grow by just 101k (a nearly 138k decline from last month’s reading).
• Revised Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30)– The revised Q3 GDP for the US is forecasted to boost to 3.2% from 2.6%, with hikes of $16 bln for consumption, $11 bln for exports, $4 bln for imports, $14 bln for nonresidential construction and $5 bln for public construction, but downward bumps of -$10 bln for inventories and -$1 bln for residential construction. The Q3 data will still depict a quarter with solid final sales growth, which we now estimate at 4.2% (was 3.3%), thanks to an upwardly-revised 1.9% (was 1.4%) consumption gain, and a huge $163.6 (was $156.6) net export contribution as exports surge and imports fall. The reduced import hit was partly offset by an estimated -$58.2 (was -$48.2) bln inventory subtraction, as demand to replenish inventories with imported goods dissipates.
• Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD, GMT 18:30)

Thursday – 01 December 2022

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• OPEC Meeting (All Day)
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 13:30) – Personal income should post a 0.4% gain in October, after a 0.4% September gain. We expect a 0.5% rise in compensation after a 0.3% gain, given a 0.2% October increase for hours-worked and a 0.4% rise for hourly earnings. We also expect a 0.8% rise for consumption after a 0.7% August increase.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI  (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to a 2-year low of 50.0 from a prior low of 50.2 in October, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March 2021, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Friday – 02 December 2022

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• RBA Governor Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 02:00)
• Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 200k November nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 261k in October, 315k in September, and 292k in August. Payroll growth should slow into the winter as mortgage rates rise and recession fears mount. A climb in initial and continuing claims since September implies some downside payroll risk. The jobless rate is seen to tick up to 3.8% from 3.7% in October and a 3.5% cycle-low in September. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after a 0.2% October rise, while the workweek holds at 34.5 for a sixth month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.4% gain in October, while the y/y wage gain should be steady at 4.7%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases in 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
• Employment data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rose by only 6K in November following the 108.3K rise in October. The unemployment rate should be unchanged at 5.2% m/m.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Cocoa Futures ( CCK2022 ), H4 Potential for Bearish Continuation

Type: Bearish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:2454Pivot:2597Support:2355Preferred Case:On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to head towards the support at 2355, where the previous swing low is located.Alternative Scenario:Price may go back up and retest the resistance at 2454 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

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Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis November 25, 2022

Weekly Live Market & Trade Analysis November 25, 2022Watch yesterday's live market and trade analysis session here! Markets are approaching some pivotal levels, in equity indices and FX, in yesterday's session we identified some key correlations that make mark a near term shift in risk sentiment in the coming week.Markets are moving, join me every Thursday for 'Real Time Actionable Analysis' on over 20 charts, where I review current positions & some high probability setups, join me in real-time at - @ 1pm GMT next Thursday - register here for the session here>>> https://rb.gy/mmo73x #PlantheTradeTradethePlan #ManageYourRISK #ProcessOverOutcome #PlayingtheProbabilities #forex #futurestrading #StockTrading #tickmill_official #PalmTreeTrader

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Laid-back luxury in Portugal

Take the hassle out of holidays with The Luxury Travel Book

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Market Spotlight: Copper Falls Back on Fresh China Lockdown News

Copper False Break After breaking out above the 3.7300 level for the first time since June earlier this month, Copper prices have since reversed back below the level and are now sitting back within the 3.4445 – 3.7300 range which has framed price action over much of the last six months. The big driver behind the reversal lower has been the shift in optimism around China reopening story.Shifting China ViewCopper futures were seen rallying in response to growing speculation that China was on the path to abandoning its zero covid policy and reopening the economy. However, over the last week this story has totally changed with news of fresh lockdowns announced in China amidst record covid cases and fresh covid deaths. With traders now fearful of further such lockdowns over the coming months, the demand outlook for copper has been materially impacted.Lockdowns Key For CopperLooking ahead, copper traders will be keeping a close eye on covid headlines coming out of China. If the initial 5-day lockdown announced in Zhengzhou province ends as signalled, copper prices should bounce back. However, if the lockdown is extended, this will be heavily bearish for price near-term.Technical ViewsCopperThe reversal back under the 3.7300 level has stalled for now with price attempting to push back above the level. Momentum studies remain mixed here, signalling plenty of two way risk. If bulls can get back above the 3.7300 the focus will then turn back to the next upside objective at 4.1185. While below 3.7300, however, the 3.3445 level is the next support to note.

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Daily Market Outlook, November 25, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 25, 2022 ‘Sterling Soars To A Three-Month High ’With US markets closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holidays, Asian markets were somewhat lacklustre overnight, lacking a lead from Wall Street. China's covid concerns continue to cause alarm, however, it seems markets are choosing to focus on the potential for further monetary policy support as a positive. The Bank of Japan expressed little concern at the hotter-than-expected inflation print overnight, as they believe the current inflationary impulse is transitory, driven by energy prices and Yen weakness. Sterling posted a three-month high against the greenback as Bank of England officials continue to beat the hawkish drum as they remain focused on fighting inflationary pressures with a robust rates policy. Inflationary pressures and a lack of meaningful government response to public sector wages will see Nurse’s strike next week for the first time in history, as the government refuses to enter pay negotiations, pitiful given their plight during the pandemic.For the day ahead: US markets will close early today, Black Friday marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season stateside. The data slate is pretty scent today, in the UK the Bank of England will release data on consumer credit, secured lending and mortgage approvals, all of which are expected to show a further deterioration in sentiment, as the appetite for borrowing remains diminished given the cost-of-living crisis and the rates environment.  Markets focus is likely to shift towards next week with the benchmark Non-Farm Payrolls report due, in the Eurozone flash CPI inflation data and in China official, PMIs will also be out. Markets will also hear from central bank heads Fed Chair Powell and ECB head Lagarde who is set to appear before the European Parliament.Overnight HeadlinesTokyo November Core CPI Rises At Fastest Annual Pace Since April 1982Asia-Pacific Stocks Mostly Lower, U.S. Markets Closes Early FridayChina’s RRR Rate Cut At All Banks Is Likely - Securities JournalBoK May Go Up to 3.5% as Terminal Rate, Governor Rhee SaysDollar Headed For Weekly Loss As Investors Brace For Slower Fed HikesHedge Fund Rokos Warns That Sterling Is ‘Vulnerable’ To Further FallsJapan’s 10-Year Yield Rises To Upper End Of BoJ’s Policy BandOil Set For Third Weekly Loss On Price-Cap Impasse, Demand FearsSaudi, Iraqi Energy Ministers Meet Thursday, Review Oil MarketsGlobal Oil Market Flashes Warning Signs On Rising Demand AngstU.S. Poised To Grant Chevron License To Pump Oil In VenezuelaCrypto Firm Binance To Commit $1 Bln For Crypto Recovery InitiativeFoxconn's Zhengzhou Plant Unlikely To Resume Full Prod By End-NovTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3990TechnicalsPrimary support is 3990Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3950 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0340TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0340Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.022020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0250 (766M), 1.0280-85 (314M), 1.0380 (261M), 1.0300 (296M), 1.0380-90 (581M), 1.0400-10 (443M),  1.0450-60 (334M), 1.0500 (324M), 1.0550 (211M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1950TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1950Primary upside objective 1.22Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.21Failure below 1.19 opens a test of 1.177020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1860 (699M)EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (270M), 0.8650-60 (1.03BN), 0.8775 (229M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 142.20TechnicalsPrimary resistance is 142.20Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142.20 opens a test of 14320 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 138.15 (300M), 138.50-60 (980M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6680TechnicalsPrimary support is .6680Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6660 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6700 (655M), 0.6850 (358M)NZD/USD: 0.6170 (227M)USD/CAD: 1.3300 (221M), 1.3390 (358M), 1.3500 (400M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16100TechnicalsIntraday 16100 is primary resistancePrimary upside objective is 17000Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 16750Failure 16000 opens a test of 1550020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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2 investment trusts with growing dividends: which one should you invest in?

They might not have spectacular yields but these two trusts have increased their dividend every year for 55 years.

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EURUSD – Takes Advantage of the FED Minutes and Data

EURUSD, Daily

A majority of Fed members favoured slowing the pace of interest rate increases “soon” in order to assess the lagged impact of monetary policy on the economy and inflation. The Fed minutes state that “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slower pace of rate increases would likely be appropriate soon”; continuing “that the uncertain lags and amplitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited for the importance of such an assessment”.

EURUSD is up for the third consecutive day so far, and is currently at the 1.0404 level. This is after it peaked at 1.0447, as last night’s Fed minutes release benefited the Euro against the Dollar, with the USDIndex losing its safe-haven status (see below).

 

Recent data confirmed that inflation was slowing, but that it was still well above the 2% target, and several members persisted in propagating the idea of less hawkish rate hikes, a possibility that market participants had anticipated. However, some members of the US central bank preferred to wait until “the policy stance is more clearly in restrictive territory and there are more concrete signs of a significant reduction in inflationary pressures”.

 

According to CMEGROUP, 75.8% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes to 0.5% in December. With this slowdown in the pace of rate hikes largely priced in by market participants, attention is turning to the final Fed Funds rate, i.e. the maximum level. This factor was widely scrutinised by Fed members, although they acknowledged that there is still uncertainty as to whether they will reach a higher figure in order to meet the initial target. “Participants commented that there was significant uncertainty about the final level of the federal funds rate needed to meet the Committee’s objectives,” the minutes note.

It is important to remember that the EURUSD pair had benefited yesterday morning from a series of mostly better than expected European PMIs.

Technical Analysis 

EURUSD is currently above its cloud, its Kijun (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj) at the level of 1.0433; the Lagging Span (Lb) is above the cloud and clearly signifies a bullish moment. The price could reach 1.0485 then 1.0571; on the other hand, if the price starts to fall again, it could reach 1.0162 and then head towards parity (1.0000).

Kader Djellouli

 

 

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Have you been scammed? UK police to send out 70,000 text messages to scam victims

70,000 scam victims will get a text from police as part of anti-fraud operation today and tomorrow - if you get one, take action

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Solar panels vs heat pumps

If you’re looking to decarbonise your home and save money on your energy bills, you may want to consider investing in solar panels or a heat pump – or both.

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Market Spotlight: What Is Driving GBPUSD Rally?

GBP Rally ContinuesThe British Pound has been on a hot streak recently with GBP enjoying a strong rally against USD over the month so far. GBPUSD is now up almost 9% off the initial November lows and almost 17% off the all-time lows seen in September on the back of the former UK PM’s disastrous mini-budget. The rebound in GBP has largely been driven by the restoration of confidence on the back of Rishi Sunak taking over as PM and Jeremy Hunt delivering a much more balanced and credible budget this month.Better UK DataGBP received an additional boost this week from the latest set of UK PMI readings. Both services and manufacturing readings had been expected to fall further from the prior month’s numbers but both came in above expectations. At the same time, US PMIs were seen undershooting forecasts, raising recessionary fears and reinforcing the view that the Fed is likely to opt for a smaller hike next month.Fed in FocusThe sell off in USD has played a large part in the reversal of fortunes for GBPUSD, reflecting the extent to which USD long positions has built up. With some high-level names having bought GBP at the lows in September, more cautious players are likely joining the move as price heads higher now which should keep the pair supported near term. The big key here will be the next US inflation reading which comes ahead of the December FOMC meeting. If further CPI cooling is seen, a smaller hike in December looks to be far more likely, allowing GBPUSD further room to recover. However, should we see inflation jump back up, this will no doubt keep a larger hike on the table, sending GBPUSD lower near-term.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe rally in GBPUSD off the all-time lows has seen price underpinned by a steep rising trend line. Price has recently broken above the 1.1474 level and is now fast approaching a test of the 1.2195 level. With momentum studies supporting, the focus is on a continuation higher with 1.2650 the next big objective for bulls.

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Market Spotlight: USD Falls on Dovish Fed Minutes

USD Under PressureThe US Dollar has come under fresh selling pressure this week on the back of the November FOMC minutes released last night. The minutes revealed that Fed policymakers agreed that smaller rate hikes would be appropriate soon. While there was no focus on a particular meeting, the minute shave been interpreted as increasing the chances of a smaller hike from the Fed next month.Economic Impact of TighteningThe minutes noted that: “A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate”. The minutes continued, saying: “The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an assessment was important.”The minutes come on the back of a slew of recent Fed commentary which has been fairly evenly split. Some members have bene pushing for smaller hikes, voicing concerns over the economic impact of tightening. However, others have called for further tightening and even for the Fed to hike rates above the current peak projection.Market Expectations for December FedDespite the USD downturn, market pricing for a larger-than-.5% hike has actually increased recently, moving up to around 40% from around 20% a fortnight ago. With this in mind, risks are fairly well balanced for now with traders awaiting the next data/commentary to help them gauge the likely outcome of the December 14th meeting.Technical ViewsDXYThe sell off from YTD highs has seen price breaking below the corrective bear channel which had been framing the reversal lower. Price has subsequently retested the underside of the broken channel which is now holding as resistance and is currently sitting on support at the 104.95 level. This is a key level and a break here will be firmly bearish, putting focus on 101.27 next.

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Bitcoin Might Temporarily Head North

Bitcoin did not hit the supporting level of 13000+ just yet. The asset has repeatedly approached the level of 15625 and reversed back up. The key market players could be buying large amounts of Bitcoin now. Currently, Bitcoin is undergoing a correction, which might last until the asset will face resistance at the level of 18500. Bitcoin is likely to pull from this level and drop. Time will tell what is going to happen next.Gold got back to the broken level of 1735.00, tested it, and formed the combination of a hammer and bullish engulfing at the end of the trading day. Gold is likely to jump and hit the level of 1820.00 next. Although the broken range is large enough and the price of gold might also hit the level of 1880.00 and face resistance.The currency pair EUR/USD has pulled from the upper boundary of the local uptrend. So, this asset is on the rise for now. First, the currency pair might approach the resistance level of 1.0600 and the downtrend from the weekly timeframe drawn between the maximums from June 1, 2021, and February 10, 2022.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-might-temporarily-head-north"
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Live Market Analysis Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The Dollar Index has been fluctuating around the 107 mark today, gaining against the retreating Yen, but losing out against EUR and GBP. Stronger than expected PMI reports for the Eurozone and the UK have left markets pushing up near term rate expectations, which has benefited both the Pound and the Euro. Markets are waiting for the minutes to the last FOMC meeting ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

 

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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