The Crude Chronicles - Episode 167

Oil Traders Cut Longs AgainThe latest CFTC COT institutional positioning report shows that crude traders cut their net long positions once again last week. Total upside exposure now sits at 232k contracts, down from 240k contracts prior. This marks the third consecutive weekly reduction in upside bets, taking the total long position down from recent highs of around 280k contracts. While crude prices are down on the month, however, this week has seen crude futures making a decent recovery bouncing off the roughly $70 lows back up to around $77.Demand Still an IssueCrude sentiment continues to oscillate around global recessionary fears, the USD outlook and the China reopening story. With fears of a global slowdown growing, the demand outlook for oil has dropped considerably recently. This has been well discussed by groups such as OPEC and the IEA which have both lowered their 2023 demand outlook for oil amidst the cost-of-living crisis fuelled by higher inflation and higher interest rates.USD & FedThe USD outlook and Fed tightening expectations have been a big part of this. With the Fed now projecting rates to stay at higher levels for longer, and the peak rate now set to exceed previous forecasts, growth forecasts will likely be further reduced. This will no doubt weigh on the demand outlook further, deflating crude sentiment yet again.China Reopening OptimismHowever, there are some bright spots in the outlook. Among these, potential reopening of the Chinese economy is the biggest factor to watch. With the Chinese government having scaled back a slew of covid restrictions recently, speculation is growing that the government will soon abandon its zero-covid policy, reopening the economy in full. Should we see further evidence supporting this view, near-term, crude prices are likely to lift on a material improvement to the crude demand outlook.Technical ViewsCrude OilThe rally in crude futures off the lows has seen the market trading back up to retest the underside of broken support around the 76.49 level. While price holds back above here, the focus is on further upside. However, there is plenty of technical confluence offering resistance overhead with the retest of the broken bull trend line and the bear channel top coming in around the 81.40 level. Bulls will need to see a break back above this level to shift the medium-term bear view which focuses on a test of the 66.97 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-167"
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Bitcoin is Dead but it might Recover

Bitcoin has pulled from the level of 17000, targeting the level of 18000. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is approaching the level of 18500. The asset is likely to pull from this level and drop next to the uptrend. It is possible that Bitcoin will undergo correction and head up.Silver is heading up. Hence, the asset might potentially undergo a small correction and pull from the uptrend.Oil has approached the level of 83.00. The asset might pull from this level and drop. However, oil might also break the level and downtrend and jump. So, let’s observe what is going to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-dead-but-it-might-recover"
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Millions of homeowners face £250 jump in monthly mortgage payments next year

The Bank of England has warned that homeowners and buy-to-let investors will need to pay thousands of pounds in extra mortgage payments next year. We explain what help is available if you’re worried about rising mortgage costs.

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UK house prices rose 12.6% in October says the ONS

House prices have continued to rise according to data from the ONS, but all is not what it seems with the data.

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Understanding winter fuel payments

As winter sets in and temperatures plunge, many of us are worried about our rising energy bills. But the government’s winter fuel payment could help ease the pain for millions of pensioners.

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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1508.75Pivot:1469.00Support:1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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5 things you didn’t realise were affecting your credit score

Make sure you’re keeping your credit score in top shape by avoiding these five mistakes.

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UK inflation falls to 10.7% but cost of living pressures remain

CPI is down to 10.7% from last month’s 41-year-high of 11.1%

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Market Spotlight: SHCOMP Caught Between Covid & Fed

Chinese Stocks Lower Ahead of FedChinese stocks are sitting off recent highs today. Despite the Chinese government having further relaxed various covid restrictions over the last few weeks, traders are watching developments carefully amidst news of a surging covid outbreak in Beijing. While there has been much speculation around the potential scrapping of the government’s zero-covid policy, news of infections is a worrying headwind to optimism.As with most indices recently, Chinese stocks have been buoyed by a scaling back of hawkish Fed expectations amidst lower US inflation data. With US CPI seen falling once again last month, traders now await the latest outlook from the Fed today at the conclusion of its two-day December FOMC meeting. Given the concerns around the covid situation in China, however, it will likely take a sharp move lower in USD to propel SHCOMP to further gains here. Yesterday’s reversal in initial equities gains reflects the cautious outlook among traders ahead of the event, paving the way for plenty of volatility today should the Fed surprise one way or the other.Technical ViewsSHCOMPThe rally off the YTD lows has seen the marker breaking out above the bear channel from YTD highs. Price has been moving higher within a narrow bullish channel and is now testing the 3185.9209 area resistance. This is a key area for the market and a break above here will turn focus to a test of the 3347.6880 level next and the bull channel top. To the downside, should we slip lower here, 3043.1853 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-shcomp-caught-between-covid-and-fed"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 14, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 14, 2022 Stocks Reverse CPI SurgeWall Street surged higher on softer-than-expected CPI as investor risk sentiment seemed fuelled by the prospect of peak inflation being in the rear view mirror, however, as markets digested the data sentiment shifted significantly from the prospect of peak inflation to growth concerns, the intraday reversal was also deemed to be driven by profit-taking ahead of today's FOMC meeting and tomorrow's BoE & ECB meeting the final meaningful macro events of 2022. Asian equity markets have held onto small gains overnight as investors wait for Fed Chair Powell's press conference this evening.The remaining central bank meetings this week are all likely to raise rates, however, markets are positioned for a reduction in the increment of rate rises, with markets currently pricing a 50bps move by the FOMC this evening. The focus for investors is going to be firmly centred on the Fed Chair Jay Powell's press conference, his comments will be parsed for any signs of a dovish tilt to his messaging, specifically his views on the Fed funds terminal rate, markets appear to be aligning around a 2023 terminal rate between 5.25% and 4.50%, markets will likely cheer any lean towards the lower end of the spectrum, however, markets are currently pricing a 4.82% terminal rate down from 4.98% ahead of the CPI release, if Powell pushes back against this reduction in expectations, expect further selling in equities as investors will likely seek solace in the safety of government debt over riskier assets. Markets-wise, huge options expiration in US markets on Friday are likely to contain any major moves on Wall Street, with $3.9 trillion of options expiring on Friday, the options market is priced for a 4000-4100 range on the benchmark SP500, ahead of the options expiration the action is likely to remain broadly within this range, post-expiration offers the potential for a range expansion, with investors still pinning their hopes on a Santa rally into year-end!Overnight HeadlinesChina’s Economy Likely Worsened Before Abrupt Covid Policy ShiftChina Gives Up Counting All Covid Cases After Ending Mass TestsChina’s Zero-Covid Retreat Sparks Wealth Mgmt Product Sell-OffMorgan Stanley Lifts China GDP Forecast On Reopening, EasingJapan’s Tankan Highlights Manufacturing, Service Firms’ DivideNew Zealand Forecasts 2023 Recession As Rates RiseCongressional Negotiators Reach Framework For Deal On Funding GovFed Seen Slowing Rate Hikes, Likely Ending Them Below 5%Dollar Weak After Soft US Inflation Data, Focus Switches To FedCrypto’s Binance Seeks to Reassure Over Reserves, Says Debt FreeOil Slips As US Crude Stock Build Stirs Doubts On DemandEU Pushes Gas Cap Decision To Next Week As Haggling ContinuesEU Agrees To Tap Carbon Market For €20 Billion In Energy PivotAsia Stocks, US Futures Edge Higher Before FedBipartisan Senate Bill Would Bar Huawei From US Finance SystemPfizer Awarded $1.96B Contract From US Gov For Paxlovid FX Options Expiring 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0375-80 (1.74BLN), 1.0450 (564M), 1.0500 (526M)1.0545-55 (505M), 1.0650 (444M), 1.0700 (929M), 1.0800 (406M)USD/JPY: 136.00 (355M). USD/CHF: 0.9415 (210M)GBP/USD: 1.2120 (210M). EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (239M)AUD/USD: 0.6450 (960M), 0.6675 (216M), 0.6750 (327M)NZD/USD: 0.6400 (1.02BLN), 0.6425 (1.15BLN)USD/CAD: 1.3560 (1.1BLN)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 39004120 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 3980Primary upside objective is 4150Failure at 3950 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.051.0620 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 1.0590Primary upside objective is 1.07Failure at 1.05 opens a test of 1.0420 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22Primary support is 1.22Primary upside objective 1.24Failure at 1.2080 opens a test of 1.203020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.70Primary resistance is 137.70Primary downside objective is 132Acceptance above 138 opens a test of 139.3020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6790Primary support is .6790Primary upside objective is .6900Failure at .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1750018000 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingIntraday 17500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18200Failure at 17400 opens a test of 1720020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-14-2022"
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US & UK Inflation Falls - GBPUSD Traders Await the Fed

US Inflation Cools FurtherThe peak inflation narrative has been given a further boost this week with the latest US and UK inflation data showing a cooling of consumer prices in both economies. In the US, annualised inflation was seen falling back to 7.1% last month, marking its lowest level since December 2021. This marks a further decline from the prior month’s 7.7% reading and was also below the 7.3% reading the market was looking for. Looking at the monthly breakdown, headline prices rose just 0.1%, down from the prior month’s 0.4% and below the 0.3% rise expected. Core prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2%, again, lower than both the prior and expected 0.3%.Attention Turns to FedWith US inflation now down a full 2% from the peak in the summer, the market turns its attention to the Fed later today. The reversal of initial gains in equities indices reflects a reluctance to show too much exuberance ahead of the main event later. While the downturn in inflation is clearly encouraging, the Fed still has a way to go and will want to avoid the market taking too dovish a view on next year, particularly with inflation still more than 3x above target.UK Inflation Falls in NovemberIn the UK, consumers were greeted by slightly better news today also. November CPI was seen falling back to 10.7% last month, down from the prior month’s 41-year highs at 11.1%. This was also below the 10.9% reading the market was looking for and saw core CPI falling to 6.3% from 6.5%. Hawkish risks ahead of the BOE tomorrow have likely now been diluted with the smaller .5% hike the most likely option. However, the BOE is widely expected to retain a hawkish outlook on rates as well as a gloomy view on the economy, particularly on the back of further weak GDP data earlier this week and news of an uptick in unemployment.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe rally in GBPUSD this week has seen the market breaking out above the 1.2195 level, with the bull channel developing further. While price holds above this support level and with the retail market still heavily short, the focus is on a further push higher with 1.2659 the next key level to watch. To the downside, any drop back below the level will turn focus to the bull channel lows and the 1.1474 level beneath it.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us-and-uk-inflation-falls-gbpusd-traders-await-the-fed"
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A recession is coming, here is how to prepare your finances

The Bank of England has warned we’re probably already in a recession, and it’s due to be one of the longest in recent memory. Here’s what to expect, and how to prepare your finances.

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Technical Trade Levels Ahead of CPI & FOMC Releases

Technical Trade Levels Ahead of CPI & FOMC Releases

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/technical-trade-levels-ahead-of-cpi-and-fomc-releases"
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Unemployment rises as over 50s head back to work

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed a 0.1% increase in unemployment, but a decreased rate of inactivity.

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