CPI inflation vs RPI inflation: what’s the difference?

We’ve been hearing a lot about CPI inflation recently, but what is this metric and why is it different to RPI inflation?

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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:4173.25Pivot:3913.25Support:3751.75Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head up towards the resistance at 4173.25, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 3913.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-e-mini-futures-es1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise15"
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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1508.75Pivot:1469.00Support:1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation15"
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Daily Market Outlook, December 15, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, December 15, 2022 Asian equities are trading on the backfoot following last night’s more hawkish read from the US Fed policy decision, while the pace of tightening was reduced, with interest rates increasing by 50bp (to a Fed funds rate of 4.25-4.50%) compared with the 75bp hikes at the prior four meetings, the Fed’s latest guidance suggested a terminal rate higher than the committee was previously targeting. The median estimate of Fed policymakers’ forecasts, the so-called ‘dot plot’ suggests a terminal target of 5.00-5.25% in 2023. In the press conference, Fed Chair Powell stated the central bank still had a “ways to go” to defeat inflation. Following the Fed, markets will now focus on policy decisions from central banks across Europe, the Bank of England is expected to announce its latest policy decision at lunchtime in the UK. The guidance given at the last meeting suggested a further limited rise in interest rates with markets pricing a 50bp increase. Markets will parse the decision for any further signs of a split vote as it appears two or possibly three members may prefer a smaller move, given that two Monetary Policy Committee members voted against the previous decision to hike by 75bp, markets will also be keen to understand whether any members are leaning towards a larger rate increase. Today's meetings will not include BoE updates to its forecasts and there won't be a press conference. The guidance on further rate moves will likely be claimed to be ‘data dependent. The ECB hiked rates by 75bps at its last two meetings, and recent comments from ECB policymakers infer that they will now slow their pace, with markets pricing a 50bp rate increase today. Some ECB officials have suggested another 75bp rise may be necessary, but it seems as though the hawks may settle for an announcement that Quantitative Tightening will start next year. ECB President Lagarde recently confirmed that details on the principles for balance sheet reduction will be announced today, but it is unclear whether a specific start date will be given or whether some other guidance will be provided. The forward guidance on rates may again be that this is now ‘data dependent’ but that seems unlikely to weigh on expectations for further rate increases. Markets-wise, the action continues to replicate a classic bear market pattern, with gaps higher only to bleed lower, with investors seeking the illusive Fed pivot to end of restrictive monetary policy, once the BoE and ECB are done today it is more than likely that the massive December options expiration due tomorrow will contain the action, with the benchmark S&P500 pinned to the 4000 level as the price where the largest amount of options interest is set to expire, investors will look to next week with no further meaningful macro data, will Santa finally be on his sleigh ready to deliver the year-end boost to stocks?Overnight HeadlinesChina Economic Activity Slumps With More Disruption To ComePBoC Injects Net 150Bln Yuan Via MLF; Rate Kept UnchangedJapan’s Trade Balance Deficit Narrows Less Than ExpectedNZ Economy Grows Strongly In Q3, But Recession Clouds AheadPowell Sees Rates Higher For Longer, But Market Doesn’t Buy ItHouse Passes One-Week Spending Bill To Avert Dec. 17 ShutdownECB To Slow Rate Hikes And Lay Out Plans To Drain CashBank Of England Readies Another Rate Hike Even As Recession HitsOil Declines After Section Of Major Keystone Pipeline RestartsStocks Extend Drop In Asia On Fed; US Dollar AdvancesElon Musk Sold More Than $3.5 Billion Worth Of Tesla SharesWarner Bros. Discovery Lifts Writedown Costs To $5.3 BillionFord, China’s CATL Mull Workaround For New US Battery PlantSEC Proposes Rules That Would Squeeze Stock-Market Middlemen FX Options Expiring 10am New York CutEUR/USD: 1.0415-30 (1.06BLN), 1.0450 (1.93BLN)1.0500 (237M), 1.04530 (201M), 1.0550 (426M)1.0570-80 (419M), 1.0600 (337M), 1.0700 (1.15BLN)EUR/JPY: 146.00 (612M)USD/CHF: 0.9395-00 (628M)GBP/USD: 1.2350 (435M), 1.2495-00 (549M)AUD/USD: 0.6600 (302M), 0.6755-70 (479M)NZD/USD: 0.6300 (200M), 0.6400 (200M)USD/CAD 1.3500 (439M), 1.3850 (249M)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 39504120 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 3950Primary upside objective is 4150Failure at 3950 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.051.0620 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 1.0590Primary upside objective is 1.07Failure at 1.05 opens a test of 1.0420 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2250Primary support is 1.2250Primary upside objective 1.24Failure at 1.2080 opens a test of 1.203020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 137.70Primary resistance is 137.70Primary downside objective is 132Acceptance above 138 opens a test of 139.3020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6700Primary support is .6700Primary upside objective is .6900Failure at .6700 opens a test of .660020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1750018200 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingIntraday 17500 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18500Failure at 17400 opens a test of 1720020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullis

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-december-15-2022"
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Market Spotlight: BOE & ECB In Focus Today - Where Do Hawkish Risks Lie?

BOE & ECB On Deck TodayFollowing on from the Fed yesterday, the BOE and ECB December meetings will take centre stage today. Both central banks are expected to hike by a further .5% while signalling the need for continued hikes into next year. However, if we’re looking at where the risks lie in terms of opportunities, the ECB looks to have more hawkish risks going into today’s meeting.Hawkish Risks Seen More for ECB Than BOE With the BOE having stridently pushed back against the idea of further aggressive tightening on the back of the last .75% hike, and with inflation having cooled last month, a smaller .5% hike looks fairly certain. However, the ECB being much earlier on in its tightening journey and with Lagarde and co sounding more concerned about inflation, there are outside risks of a surprise today which could see the bank hiking by a larger .75%. While this would no doubt drive EURGBP higher, short term at least, the greater impact is likely to be seen in EURUSD with the further eroding of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB set to favour EUR near-term.Technical ViewsEURUSDThe rally off the YTD lows has seen the market continuing to break higher recently. The last notable technical breakthrough was the move through the 1.0364 level. Momentum studies have waned a bit recently, suggesting room for a correction. However, while price stays above the 1.0364 level the focus remains on a continued push higher and an eventual break of the 1.0785 level towards the 1.1126 level above.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-boe-and-ecb-in-focus-today-where-do-ha"
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The Crude Chronicles - Episode 167

Oil Traders Cut Longs AgainThe latest CFTC COT institutional positioning report shows that crude traders cut their net long positions once again last week. Total upside exposure now sits at 232k contracts, down from 240k contracts prior. This marks the third consecutive weekly reduction in upside bets, taking the total long position down from recent highs of around 280k contracts. While crude prices are down on the month, however, this week has seen crude futures making a decent recovery bouncing off the roughly $70 lows back up to around $77.Demand Still an IssueCrude sentiment continues to oscillate around global recessionary fears, the USD outlook and the China reopening story. With fears of a global slowdown growing, the demand outlook for oil has dropped considerably recently. This has been well discussed by groups such as OPEC and the IEA which have both lowered their 2023 demand outlook for oil amidst the cost-of-living crisis fuelled by higher inflation and higher interest rates.USD & FedThe USD outlook and Fed tightening expectations have been a big part of this. With the Fed now projecting rates to stay at higher levels for longer, and the peak rate now set to exceed previous forecasts, growth forecasts will likely be further reduced. This will no doubt weigh on the demand outlook further, deflating crude sentiment yet again.China Reopening OptimismHowever, there are some bright spots in the outlook. Among these, potential reopening of the Chinese economy is the biggest factor to watch. With the Chinese government having scaled back a slew of covid restrictions recently, speculation is growing that the government will soon abandon its zero-covid policy, reopening the economy in full. Should we see further evidence supporting this view, near-term, crude prices are likely to lift on a material improvement to the crude demand outlook.Technical ViewsCrude OilThe rally in crude futures off the lows has seen the market trading back up to retest the underside of broken support around the 76.49 level. While price holds back above here, the focus is on further upside. However, there is plenty of technical confluence offering resistance overhead with the retest of the broken bull trend line and the bear channel top coming in around the 81.40 level. Bulls will need to see a break back above this level to shift the medium-term bear view which focuses on a test of the 66.97 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-crude-chronicles-episode-167"
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Bitcoin is Dead but it might Recover

Bitcoin has pulled from the level of 17000, targeting the level of 18000. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is approaching the level of 18500. The asset is likely to pull from this level and drop next to the uptrend. It is possible that Bitcoin will undergo correction and head up.Silver is heading up. Hence, the asset might potentially undergo a small correction and pull from the uptrend.Oil has approached the level of 83.00. The asset might pull from this level and drop. However, oil might also break the level and downtrend and jump. So, let’s observe what is going to happen next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-dead-but-it-might-recover"
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Millions of homeowners face £250 jump in monthly mortgage payments next year

The Bank of England has warned that homeowners and buy-to-let investors will need to pay thousands of pounds in extra mortgage payments next year. We explain what help is available if you’re worried about rising mortgage costs.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/mortgages/605598/rising-mortgage-costs
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UK house prices rose 12.6% in October says the ONS

House prices have continued to rise according to data from the ONS, but all is not what it seems with the data.

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Understanding winter fuel payments

As winter sets in and temperatures plunge, many of us are worried about our rising energy bills. But the government’s winter fuel payment could help ease the pain for millions of pensioners.

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Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:1508.75Pivot:1469.00Support:1423.25Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/soybean-futures-zs1-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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5 things you didn’t realise were affecting your credit score

Make sure you’re keeping your credit score in top shape by avoiding these five mistakes.

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UK inflation falls to 10.7% but cost of living pressures remain

CPI is down to 10.7% from last month’s 41-year-high of 11.1%

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Market Spotlight: SHCOMP Caught Between Covid & Fed

Chinese Stocks Lower Ahead of FedChinese stocks are sitting off recent highs today. Despite the Chinese government having further relaxed various covid restrictions over the last few weeks, traders are watching developments carefully amidst news of a surging covid outbreak in Beijing. While there has been much speculation around the potential scrapping of the government’s zero-covid policy, news of infections is a worrying headwind to optimism.As with most indices recently, Chinese stocks have been buoyed by a scaling back of hawkish Fed expectations amidst lower US inflation data. With US CPI seen falling once again last month, traders now await the latest outlook from the Fed today at the conclusion of its two-day December FOMC meeting. Given the concerns around the covid situation in China, however, it will likely take a sharp move lower in USD to propel SHCOMP to further gains here. Yesterday’s reversal in initial equities gains reflects the cautious outlook among traders ahead of the event, paving the way for plenty of volatility today should the Fed surprise one way or the other.Technical ViewsSHCOMPThe rally off the YTD lows has seen the marker breaking out above the bear channel from YTD highs. Price has been moving higher within a narrow bullish channel and is now testing the 3185.9209 area resistance. This is a key area for the market and a break above here will turn focus to a test of the 3347.6880 level next and the bull channel top. To the downside, should we slip lower here, 3043.1853 is the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-shcomp-caught-between-covid-and-fed"
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