Where will house prices go in 2023?

Halifax expects house prices to fall 8% next year due to higher interest rates and the rising cost of living.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605607/house-prices-in-2023
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Market Spotlight: BTC Turns Lower Amidst Risk Aversion

BTC Threatening a Fresh Move Lower?Following a corrective grind higher over the last month or so, Bitcoin prices turned sharply lower into the back end of last week as fresh central bank hawkishness weighed on risk sentiment. Both the Fed and the ECB seemingly caught markets a little off guard last week, fuelling recession fears in the outlook for the first half of 2023. The Fed lifted its peak rate projection, signalling that rates would need to be higher for longer while the ECB was also seen warning that rates would need to increase significantly further. With US retail sales data then seen tanking in November, markets have gravitated back towards fears for global economic activity, which has driven risk assets sharply lower in recent days.Early 2023 OutlookLooking ahead to early 2023, the outlook for crypto remains fairly subdued. However, there are some upside risks worth considering. The biggest one of these is the potential reopening of the Chinese economy in early 2023 which, if confirmed, would be a significant upside driver for risk assets including crypto. Furthermore, if there is any sudden acceleration of the drop in US inflation this might help shift the Fed outlook in favour of an earlier end to tightening which would also help lift the outlook for crypto.Technical ViewsBTCFollowing the latest leg lower in BTC, the market has been grinding higher since the November lows, moving with a narrow bull channel. However, the move stalled into a retest of the 18545 area. This is a key resistance level with the bear trend line from August highs sitting just above. Until we see a break of that region, the focus remains on further downside near term with a break of 16660 opening the way for a test of 14910 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-btc-turns-lower-amidst-risk-aversion"
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Market Spotlight: GBP Weaker Following BOE

GBP Falls on Divided BOE HikeIn stark contrast to the price action we’ve seen in EUR following the ECB, GBP has been on the backfoot following the December BOE meeting. The UK central bank pushed ahead with a further .5% hike as expected, taking rates to their highest level in 14 years. However, there was dissent in the ranks with voting split three ways, showing growing support for a slowing of rate hikes.Looking ahead, BOE governor Bailey said that the bank expects inflation to begin falling sharply from spring 2023. Bailey said the BOE was already encouraged by the cooling of inflation seen last month which the bank noted had fallen more than it expected.  These comments alongside the voting split have been seen by the market as a precursor to a forth coming pivot on rates. The BOE warned last time around that it was not looking to continue with aggressive hiking and traders now sense that the BOE will be the next to hit the brakes on tightening, making GBP vulnerable to further downside near term.Technical ViewsGBPUSDPrice has been grinding higher with a bullish channel over recent months. However, we’ve seen bearish divergence creeping in on momentum studies into the latest peak, suggesting bearish reversal risks. The key level to watch near-term is the 1.2195 level. If price slips back below this level, chances of a downside break of the bull channel increase, opening the way for a test of the 1.1474 level next. While above 1.2195, however, 1.2659 is the next level to watch for bulls.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gbp-weaker-following-boe"
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( ES1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance:4049.00Pivot:3914.00Support:3757.50 Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 3757.50, where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is. Alternative Scenario:Price could head back up to retest the pivot at 3914.00, where the previous swing low is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/s-and-p-500-e-mini-futures-es1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Drop Ahead

Bitcoin has pulled from the resistance at the level of 18500 and dropped. The asset is likely to drop to the level of 15625, gain the required support, and head up. So, let’s observe what is going to happen next.American stock index S&P 500 broke the short-term uptrend and horizontal level of 3935. This asset might either pull back to the broken trend or dive even deeper to hit the broken level of 3935 and drop.Silver has touched the uptrend and formed a hammer at the end of Friday. The asset is likely to hit the level of 24.75 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-drop-ahead-19-12-2022"
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UK economy recession risks on the rise as S&P Global indicates decline in activity

The UK economy is likely to contract again in December as expansion in services sector cannot fully offset the decline in manufacturing.The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index edged up slightly to 49.0 from 48.2 in November, but remained below the 50 level that usually separates a rise from a decline for the fifth month in a row.December data raises the possibility that the UK is in recession, with PMI pointing to a 0.3% GDP contraction in the fourth quarter, following a 0.2% decline seen in the three months to September. The services PMI, which covers most economic activity, rebounded to 50.0 from 48.8 in November, but the manufacturing PMI fell to 44.7 - its lowest level since June 2020 - from 46. 5.S&P saw a "hard and accelerated" fall in manufacturing employment as new export orders fell for the sixth month in a row. Employment in the service sector has stalled.Forward-looking elements of the survey, such as business confidence and order books, remain low by historical standards, both of which are key indicators of increased levels of economic stress.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/uk-economy-recession-risks-on-the-rise-as-s-and-p-global-indicates-decline-in-activity"
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The best offers for switching banks: get up to £200 free cash

Looking to move bank accounts? You can now bag as much as £200 for switching current accounts

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605277/the-best-offers-for-switching-banks
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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Market Spotlight: EURAUD Explodes on Hawkish ECB

Hawkish ECB Message Rocks MarketsThe December ECB meeting proved to be far from a muted event as markets were rocked yesterday by the bank’s outlook and guidance. The ECB delivered a widely expected .5% hike, despite hawkish risks, but it was the accompanying projections which were the main focus.Inflation Revised HigherCiting the need to drive inflation lower, the ECB warned that it would need to hike rates “significantly”. The warning came alongside sharp upward revisions to the bank’s inflation forecasts. The ECB now projects inflation to 8.4% in 2022, 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.No PivotECB chief Lagarde was keen to drive home the bank’s hawkish outlook. In the press conference following the decision Lagarde explained that “One of the key messages, in addition to the hike, is the indication that not only will we raise interest rates further, which we had said before, but that today we judged that interest rates will still have to rise significantly, at a steady place.” Lagarde went on to warn against those with any expectation that the ECB will soon pivot, saying “Anybody who thinks this is a pivot for the ECB is wrong. We’re not pivoting, we’re not wavering, we are showing determination and resilience in continuing a journey.”QT To Step Up Regarding the bank’s asset purchase program, the ECB said that it will begin shrinking its balance sheet by 15 billion EUR per month from March and will announce further details in February.The uptick in ECB hawkishness at a time when many other central banks are pivoting (Fed, RBA, RBC) creates very tradable monetary policy divergence which favours EUR against those respective currencies near-term.Technical ViewsEURAUDThe rally in EUR this week has seen the pair breaking out above the 1.5713 resistance. With momentum studies bullish and with the retail market heavily short, the focus is on a continuation higher towards 1.6173 while 1.5713 holds as support.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-euraud-explodes-on-hawkish-ecb"
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Share tips of the week – 16 December

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605590/share-tips-of-the-week-16-december
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FOMO Friday: Nasdaq Plunges on Market Woes

Nasdaq - Naughty or Nice?It’s been a pivotal week for financial markets. For many, the last full week of trading before the Christmas break. The three headline central bank meetings on deck this week certainly delivered the goods, Christmas come early for some, for others, a chance to reflect on missed opportunities. Looking at the action we’ve seen this week and chatting with traders there’s certainly been plenty to focus on. However, the move seemingly catching the most attention ahead of the weekend is the reversal we’ve seen in risk sentiment. The Nasdaq in particular has shed more than 7% on the week, plunging from highs around 12229.22 to sub 11540.72 lows. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If you missed it? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Fed - Higher for LongerThe first catalyst to look at is the Fed. The FOMC on Wednesday was an interesting event in that, while the Fed finally delivered a pivot on rates (hiking by a smaller .5%), the accompanying outlook was more hawkish. Citing the need to keep driving inflation lower, the Fed lifted its peak rate projection, forecasting that rates will stay at higher levels for longer with no rate cuts to be considered before 2024 at the earliest. This guidance saw risk assets tumbling with tech stocks bearing the brunt of the moves.ECB FireworksFollowing the Fed we then saw the ECB lighting the markets up (in the wrong way) on Thursday. The bank struck a heavily cautious tone warning of the growing downside risks to the domestic and global economy next year. Additionally, a set of upwardly revised inflation forecasts means that traders are eyeing further hikes from the bank across next year, again weighing heavily on sentiment in tech stocks.Recession FearsFinally, recession fears swung back into sharp focus with November US retail sales falling unexpectedly into negative territory. Given that the pre-holiday season is typically a time of high demand, the data poses worrying questions for Q4 performance as a whole and added heavily to bearish sentiment in stocks, sending tech names plunging across the board, reflected in the Nasdaq breaking through support this week.Technical ViewsNasdaqThe sell off in the Nasdaq this week saw the market reversing from the latest test of the resistance zone around 12220.22 with the bull channel top adding confluence. Price has since broken back below the 11540.72 level support and is now fast approaching a test of the 11034.18 level support and bull channel lows. Bulls need to defend this area to keep the broader bullish bias intact.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-nasdaq-plunges-on-market-woes"
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EU yield outlook improves on hawkish ECB, the odds of Fed Pivot grow on dovish retail sales surprise

The key question ahead of today’s ECB policy meeting was whether the bank would opt for a large rate hike with a dovish statement or deliver modest tightening policies while retaining a hawkish stance. The meeting indicated that the ECB leaned in favor of the second option. In its statement, the ECB did not skimp on hawkish language: “interest rates need to be raised further at a steady pace to a sufficiently restrictive level to ensure inflation moves towards a medium-term target of 2%”, and also “keeping interest rates above the neutral level will reduce inflation over time by dampening demand, and also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.”In terms of reducing the ECB's bond holdings, redemption bond reinvestment under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) will decline to an average of 15 billion euros per month until the end of the second quarter of 2023, and its subsequent pace will be determined as the process progresses.The ECB has also released updated staff economic projections. The regulator expects inflation to fall to 3.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. The figure for 2024 has been significantly revised upwards. At the same time, the ECB expects only a short and shallow recession, forecasting a eurozone growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. This is slightly less optimistic than the previous forecast, but there is no noticeable anxiety about recession.EURUSD moved up amid hawkish statements from the European regulator, the dollar also further weakened on a negative surprise in US retail sales data (-0.6% MoM, -0.1% forecast):Together with a faster slowdown in US inflation in November, a weak retail sales report fueled markets' fears of an impending downturn in the US economy, which spooked investors in risk assets. Major US stock indexes fell by about 1.5%.Based on the outcomes of the meetings of the Fed and the ECB, it seems that the ECB is becoming more decisive in the fight against inflation, while the risks of a pause from the Fed started to increase, especially against the backdrop of weak incoming data in the key US consumer sector. There is still little the ECB can do to reduce actual inflation, but it can help re-anchor inflation expectations. With today's announcement, it's clear that the ECB wants to use interest rates fully as its primary inflation-fighting tool first, and that balance sheet shrinkage remains on the back burner. With growth prospects still relatively optimistic, there is a growing risk that the ECB will push the eurozone economy further into recession with each new interest rate hike. Nevertheless, in the short term, the Euro becomes a more attractive choice on expectations of a narrowing yield differential, so the EURUSD pair is likely to continue to rise for some time.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eu-yield-outlook-improves-on-hawkish-ecb-the-odds-of-fed-pivot-grow-on-dovish-retail-sales-surprise"
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