Market Spotlight: Nat Gas Volatility At Lows

Natural Gas Breaks LowsThe sell off in natural gas prices from the highs seen early last year has seen the market collapsing by almost 70%. Natural gas futures recently hit their lowest levels since late 2021 as a milder winter in Europe has allowed for far less demand than typically seen over this period. Given the record build up in European stockpiles ahead of recent months, the subsequent drop in buying has fuelled a rapid repricing in gas markets.Europe LNG Imports in FocusMost recently, however, we’re seeing some volatility around the lows as traders seek to reconcile lower prices with a need to maintain LNG imports. The drop in prices in Europe means that US producers are seeing better gains elsewhere, namely Asia. While stockpiles remain elevated this is sustainable. However, should the weather turn in Europe in coming months, any drop in LNG imports might well see a sudden rush of panic buying sending prices soaring again.Maintaining LNG imports from the US is a key part of Europe’s strategic mission to replace lost Russian energy supply and as such there is a case for anticipating a floor in gas prices around current or slightly lower levels. One caveat to this is that the market still remains well supplied currently and, given expectations of a deeper downturn this year, the demand outlook remains muted for now.US Dollar Impact Another key factor to monitor here is the shift lower in USD. If this week’s US inflation data confirms the further anticipated cooling of inflation, this should see USD heading deeper, allowing for commodities prices to gain higher ground. As such, near-term prospects for natural gas look to be skewed to the upside unless we see an unexpected upside print in Thursday’s US CPI.Technical ViewsNG (Natural Gas Futures)The key level for the market is the 3.960 in the near-term. Back above here, NG should find decent demand to carve out a base allowing for a retest of the broken bull trend line and the 5.381 level above. However, should price hold beneath 3.960, the focus remains on a further downward push towards the 3.305 level next.

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How to pick an investment platform

Investment platforms, commonly known as fund supermarkets, allow you to buy, sell and hold funds, stocks and trusts. But how do you pick the right one and what should you look out for?

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Market Spotlight: China Reopening Drives Copper Rally

Copper Breaks Highs With (Dr) Copper often seen as a barometer for global economic health (or at least projected global economic health), the rally in copper futures is certainly an encouraging start to the New Year. A combination of a weaker US Dollar and budding optimism around China reopening its borders is helping lift sentiment this week. Weaker-than-forecast wages growth in the US last month has reinforced the outlook that inflation is likely to have cooled further last month, to be shown in Thursday’s US CPI reading.  If seen, USD is likely to continue lower helping lift risk sentiment further, boosting copper prices near-term.The China story is an interesting one with traders now essentially caught between fears around surging infection and death toll numbers and optimism around border controls being relaxed for the first time since the pandemic began. While restrictions remain relaxed, however, focus is likely to stay on the positive side with copper demand forecast to increase as trade picks up. However, should the covid story deteriorate (particularly with any reversal in the easing of restrictions), this would be bad news for copper prices.Technical ViewsHG (Copper futures)Copper prices have reversed sharply off the 3.7300 lows and are now trading back above the 3.9410 level. While above here, the focus is on a break of the 4.1185 level, opening the way for a fuller move up towards 4.4830 longer term. However, worth noting we are seeing strong bearish divergence on momentum studies so bulls should be wary on any move back below the 3.9410 level.

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Coffee Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 174.35Pivot: 163.80Support: 154.30Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 154.30, where the previous swing low is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 163.80 where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/coffee-futures-kc1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop"
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Precious Metals Monday 09-01-2023

Metals Rally on USD DeclineThe metals market is seeing an encouraging start to the week with both gold and silver in decent demand on Monday. The main driver currently is the sell off in USD on the back of Friday’s December US labour reports. The headline NFP reading was seen above market forecasts at 223k vs 200k expected along with the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5% from 3.7% expected. However, the main focus was on the unexpected drop in average hourly earnings which fell to 0.3% from 0.4% prior.The drop in wages growth has been taken as an indicator that this week’s December US CPI data is likely to reflect further cooling of inflation. With markets keen to gauge the Fed’s next steps and the prospect of a deeper pivot on rates (.25% from 0.5% hikes), Thursday’s data will be the headline data event of the week. The market is looking for headline CPI at 6.5% down from 7.1% which, if seen, should weigh on USD further allowing metals room to run higher still.Alongside the moves in USD, worth keeping an eye on risk sentiment this week also. China reopening its borders at the weekend is a material shift in the global narrative. While there are still grave concerns around the country’s covid situation, markets appear to be shrugging those off for now and instead focusing on the positives. Upside in equities is limiting gains in metals as with the rally we’re seeing in commodity currencies which is also attracting capital flow. Near-term, however, the outlook remains favourable for metals while USD remains under pressure. Ahead of US CPI on Thursday, traders will be looking to Fed’s Powell who speaks tomorrow with traders keen to hear if Powell addresses Friday’s jobs data and the implications for the inflation outlook. Technical ViewsGoldThe rally in gold prices have seen the market piercing above the 1871.04 resistance level. While momentum studies are flagging some bearish divergence, highlighting room for a correction near-term, the broader outlook remains bullish while price holds above the 1791.63 level with 1916.34 the target for bulls.SilverThe rally in silver prices has seen the market trading back up to retest the 24.0073 level. This has proved a sticking point for silver recently though, with price still trading within the bull channel off the 2022 lows, the focus remains on an eventual break higher here targeting 26.0974 above. Should price slip below the channel lows, 22.3205 is the next support area to note.

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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Jump Ahead

Bitcoin keeps forming a narrow range between the levels 16300 and 17000, trying to regain its position after Christmas. So far, it seems that Bitcoin might target the supporting level of 15625 and face resistance at the level of 18350. After that, the asset might pull back. So, let’s observe what is going to happen.The price of the currency pair EUR/USD has pulled from the broken downtrend and the level of 1.0500 and formed a bullish engulfing at the end of last Friday. Currently, the asset’s price is signifying a potential jump. At that, the asset is likely to form a bullish flag on the daily chart. This currency pair is on the rise.American stock index S&P 500 has formed a triangle. This might signify a potential drop to the supporting level of 3572. Of course, the index might also break the level of 3935. So, let’s observe what the index is going to do next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-jump-ahead-09-01-2023"
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Market Spotlight: EZ Inflation Falls Further But No ECB Shift Expected Near-Term

EZ CPI Cools AgainThe latest eurozone inflation data seen today has fuelled hopes that the inflationary spiral which ballooned last year, is now passing. Eurozone CPI was seen cooling to 9.2% last month, down from 10.1% the prior month, falling below the 9.6% result the market was looking for on the headline reading. While core inflation was a little stickier, rising to 5.2% from 5% prior, above the 5.1% forecast, the overall response to the data has been positive, suggesting that inflation in the eurozone has now peaked. Additionally, retail sales in the eurozone were seen rising unexpectedly to 0.8% from the prior month’s -1.5% reading, coming in above the 0.5% level forecast.ECB Unlikely to Shift Near-TermIn all, today’s data out of the eurozone is encouraging to say the least. However, with inflation still well above the ECB’s 2% target, there is little to suggest that bank will slow the pace of its tightening program ahead of current projections. Earlier this week we heard ECB’s Villeroy warning that eurozone rates likely wont peak until the summer at least, cautioning that the duration of rates would matter more this year than the levels themselves.EUR Well Bid, EZ Stocks MixedThe market reaction has seen EUR well bid against most of its major trading counterparties. European stocks have been a little stickier with the Dax and the Eurostoxx both treading water, though the CAC40 has seen better demand on the back of the data.Technical ViewsEURGBPThe pair is now testing the upper limit of the .8597- .8869 level range which has framed price action over the last four months. If bulls can break the current resistance, the path is open for a move higher towards the .9276 level longer term. To the downside, .8719 is the main support to note ahead of the range bottom.

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Share tips of the week - 06 January 2023

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to the best of this week’s share tips from the rest of the UK's financial pages

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Hotel Bel-Air: a home away from Hollywood

The Hotel Bel-Air in California has long provided sanctuary to the stars

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Market Spotlight: Bar Set Low For Today's NDP Release

USD On The RiseIt’s been a good start to the year for the US Dollar which rallied through the week, driven by the hawkish December FOMC minutes and a bumper ADP employment print. Focus now shifts to the headline event and the first US labour reports of the year. A buoyant Dollar on the back of yesterday’s ADP bonanza tells you that a tight labour market is good for USD, seemingly. With that in mind, the outlook today is for the US Dollar to rally if the NFP beats forecasts.Expectations for TodayIndeed, given that the forecast today is for 200k down from 263k prior, the bar is set quite low for a USD rally. Away from the headline reading, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.7% while wage growth is set to weaken to 0.4% from 0.6%. If seen, a drop in wages should help fuel expectations of a further cooling in US inflation ahead of next week’s CPI print, keeping USD supported on better growth projections. However, any unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate might dampen the rally, if seen.Where to Trade?The current meltdown in GBP looks likely to continue near-term with PM Rishi Sunak continuing to lose public support in the latest polls. Political uncertainty, resurgent covid levels, industrial action and the cost-of-living crisis are weighing heavily on GBP here making it a prime target for further losses against USD.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe move back under the 1.2195 level spells trouble for GBPUSD. Now trading below the rising channel from last year’s lows, GBPUSD looks vulnerable to a run down towards the 1.474 level next if USD rallies today, in line with bearish momentum studies readings.

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FOMO Friday: FTSE Finds Form Early in 2023

FTSE Rallies Almost 4%With many traders still returning from their Christmas breaks, the first trading week of 2023 has been a relatively slow one, particularly in FX. However, with the December US labour reports due later today, there is still the potential for some fireworks to ring in the New Year. Away from FX, we’ve actually seen some decent volatility this week and talking with traders ahead of the weekend, it seems the move capturing the most attention is the almost 4% rally in the FTSE. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! And if not, there’s always next week!What Caused The Move?Better UK Earnings Outlook The main driver behind the move higher in the UK’s leading blue-chip index was a set of positive profit forecasts from leading UK retailers. High Street icon Next upped its profit forecasts for year end 2022 on the back of stronger-than-expected Christmas sales. The clothing and homeware retailer noted that sales of full price items jumped by almost 5% in the nine weeks through to the end of the year, in stark contrast to the -2% forecasted. As such, Next increased its year end profit forecasts by £20 million.Greggs PLC was another leading UK name seen upping its year-end profit forecasts. The company (famous for its sausage rolls) noted that total sales had jumped by more than 20% over the year, topping £1.5 billion.  Indeed, despite rising inflation, the group noted that sales continued to soar throughout the year citing the likelihood that consumers were shunning higher cost food items in favour of Greggs’ cheaper food options.GBP Weakness & Inflation Cooling Away from positive earnings stories, the rally in the FTSE this week can also be attributed to the weakness we’re seeing in GBP. The Pound has fallen further this week as political uncertainty linked to the Sunak government continues to hurt GBP’s prospects. Additionally, growing expectations of a further cooling in inflation are helping lift stock sentiment, with traders eyeing that the BOE might look to slow down the pace of rate hikes sooner than expected.Upside RisksLooking ahead, the focus for the FTSE is likely to stay with UK earnings as more companies are scheduled to repot next week. The big theme to look out for is any companies reporting better-than-expected December sales which should help keep investor sentiment skewed to the upside. UK GDP will also be in focus next week with bulls needing a positive surprise to help keep the rally alive.Technical ViewsFTSEThe rally in the FTSE this week has seen price breaking above the bear channel top and above the resistance area around 7375.8. This is a big break for the index and if bulls can hold above here, the focus is on a further break of the 7678.8 level and a continuation higher towards 7904.7 next. In line with bullish momentum studies readings.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-ftse-finds-form-early-in-2023"
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House prices fall for four months straight

UK house prices dipped by 1.5% in December, the fourth consecutive month, Halifax’s latest House Price Index reveals

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The best one-year fixed savings accounts – January 2023

Earn almost 5% on one-year fixed savings accounts.

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4 small caps to buy in 2023

The UK’s AIM market is full of opportunities for investors, writes Michael Taylor of Shifting Shares. Here are his top small caps to buy for 2023

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