Private equity investment trusts look cheap

Private equity investment trusts are trading at deep discounts to net asset values. This could be a great opportunity for long-term investors.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/funds/investment-trusts/605641/private-equity-investment-trusts-look-cheap
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Should you overpay your mortgage or invest?

As interest rates rise, homeowners with spare cash may be wondering if they should overpay their mortgage. Or is investing a better option? We explain which one might be best for you.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605640/overpay-mortgage-vs-investing
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EURUSD Presses Against 1.08 level, Market Anticipates Benign CPI Print as Energy Inflation Drops

Risk appetite apparently grows in equity markets as Fed chief Powell did not take advantage of the Riksbank conference yesterday to repeat the recent mantra that a high inflation rate warrants further policy tightening. The market interpreted this as another signal that the Fed intends to slow down the pace of policy tightening, reaching “moderately restrictive level” in 1Q. The US market closed yesterday with moderate gains, futures continued to rally today, indicating potential bullish opening on the New York session today. Investors also increased demand for bonds, Treasury yields on the entire maturity spectrum trade slightly in the red today. The dollar index is clearly consolidating near the level of 103, buying interest remains low, there may be an attempt by sellers before the release of the CPI to press against the level of 103, and in case of bullish print, they may even break through the support and go towards the102.50 – 102 level:The market is clearly inclined now to price in a decreasing hawkish vector of the Fed policy. The reason for this is an unexpectedly dovish print of the ISM index for US non-manufacturing sector that we saw on Friday. The headline reading plunged to sub 50 area, which basically means contraction in activity compared to November. Industrial orders also declined - by 1.8%, which was a big surprise. The Small Index Optimism Index released yesterday by the NFIB fell from 91.9 to 89.8 points driven by small business expectations in business climate. Key highlights of the report include a decline in the share of firms planning to raise prices (a leading indicator of inflation) by 8%, and a decline in the share of firms expecting sales growth in real terms by 2%. However, the proportion of firms planning to hire staff remained high at 55%, among which 93% reported that there were few or no suitably qualified candidates in the market.The mood for the European currency and European assets is gradually improving. Goldman abandoned the previous forecast of a recession in the EU in 2023, and European Commission official Gentilloni said that while the forecast for GDP growth in the first quarter of 0.3% remains relevant, the risks of lower or negative growth in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 have noticeably decreased. ECB officials Schnabel and Centeno also changed their rhetoric, focusing on the fact that the peak of the inflationary shock in the energy market has passed, and the ECB is also getting closer to the end of rate hikes.The technical setup for EURUSD is presented below:The chart shows that the market keeps consolidating in a rather narrow range near the zone where a major sell-off started in June 2022 (zone 1.08). This fact allows us to consider it as an area of short-term resistance. A favorable CPI print (5.7% or below in core inflation) will most likely allow the market to break through 1.08 level, after the initial profit-taking on a bullish breakout, the upward movement will most likely resume with a target of 1.09 and above. Buyers' interest is likely to drop noticeably near the 1.10 level, where the main bearish speculative momentum will likely emerge.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/eurusd-presses-against-1-08-level-market-anticipates-benign-cpi-print-as-energy-inflation-drops"
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Market Spotlight: Sainsbury Stock Falls Despite Profits Update

Better Q4 Profits Seen Shares in J Sainsbury, the UK’s second-largest supermarket, are trading lower today despite a better profit outlook for Q4. The group recorded a 7.1% spike in sales in the six weeks leading up to January, while the 16 weeks through to January were 5.2% higher than the previous year. The World Cup was also cited as having a positive impact within this longer period given large groups were entertaining at home. Sainsbury is now looking at a before-tax-profit in the upper end of the £630 -£690 million range.While the company noted the cost-of-living crisis had certainly changed consumer habits, the overall impact for the group was positive as more UK households were entertaining at home this year in light of higher restaurant/pub costs and fresh covid concerns.Post Christmas ConcernsLooking ahead, however, the group’s CEO Simon Roberts warned that sales would likely be impacted with many households yet to face bills from the Christmas period. Additionally, with inflation still at elevated levels, the cost-of-living crisis is far from over.In terms of market reaction to the update, given that positive news was well signalled it would likely have taken something more unexpected to help drive prices higher. The group is still involved in a fierce battle with competitors in order to keep prices down during the cost-of-living crisis as well as investments to help boost employee salaries.With the festive season having passed, the near-term outlook for the group looks skewed to the downside with households likely to try and curtail spending ahead of the Easter period and the start of warmer weather in the UK.Technical ViewsJ Sainsbury PlcShares have been grinding higher within a corrective bullish channel off last year’s lows. The break above 226.5 is key and while the rally has currently stalled into a test of the 249.8 level, while prices holds above 226.5, the focus is on a further push higher. Above here, 267.1 is the next key upside level to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-sainsbury-stock-falls-despite-profits-update"
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12 predictions for 2023

Dominic Frisby outlines his 12 outrageous predictions for the year ahead

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/605639/12-predictions
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Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance: 671.75Pivot: 660.00Support: 636.00 Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 636.00, where the previous swing low is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 660.00 where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/corn-futures-zc1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop11"
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Aussie CPI Shows RBA Inflation Battle Tougher Than Expected

Pause for ThoughtWith the RBA being one of the first central banks to pivot on rates this year, the latest Aussie inflation data will no doubt be disappointing. Year-on-year, inflation came in at 7.3% last month, marking a sharp rise from the prior month’s 6.9% and a beat on the 7.2% market forecast. Core inflation was also higher, rising to 5.6% from 5.4% prior. In all, the data suggests that the RBA’s path back towards its target 2%-3% band will not be linear and, as such, traders are wondering whether the bank will be forced to step-back-up the pace of its tightening program in order to ensure that inflation heads lower again.RBA: Monetary Policy Not Set in StoneThe RBA had warned at the last meeting that monetary policy was not set in stone and would remain subject to incoming data, specifically inflation and employment. While many were focusing on the dovish implications should inflation begin to cool quicker, today’s data has thrown a spanner-in-the-works so to speak and raises the prospect of a fresh uptick in RBA tightening.House Prices Rise SharplyLooking at the breakdown of the data, housing was one of the biggest contributors, rising almost 10% year-on-year. There were some more idiosyncratic factors too, however, which might afford the RBA some scope. Recent flooding and bad weather in parts of Australia are said to be the cause of the sharp uptick in food prices last month with fruit and vegetables in particular seeing a big spike. With rainfall said to have been well above average, seasonally, the RBA will likely wait to see if these dynamics correct at the next reading before taking any fresh tightening action.Transport Costs Up AgainAnother factor which is likely more worrying, however, is the second month-on-month increase in transport costs which rose 2.2%. Motor fuel in particular rose almost 6% following a 7% rise the prior month and while prices at the pump fell back in December, they are already rising again this month, suggesting further issues for the RBA.RBA Wait-And-SeeFor now, it will likely be a case of wait-and-see for the RBA. One fresh uptick, though worrying, is unlikely to see the bank adjust rates higher. However, should this month’s data come in hot also, we can expect the RBA to revised its tightening program higher near-term. AUD has been a little higher on the back of the release though this is likely more linked to better risk sentiment.Technical ViewsAUDUSDThe rally off the .6681 lows has seen the market breaking above the .6857 lows. With momentum studies bullish, while price holds above here, the focus is on a further push towards the .7103 level next. To the downside, .6681 remains the key support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/aussie-cpi-shows-rba-inflation-battle-tougher-than-expected"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 11, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 11, 2023 Markets Marking Time Ahead of US Inflation DataInvestors remain upbeat but cautious ahead of tomorrow's US Inflation data. Asian equity markets once again picked up the positivity baton from Wall Street, with Asian equities pushing six-month highs, regional risk-on sentiment remains supported by the promise of a rebound in Chinese growth metrics, driven by the re-opening story, however, some market participants are concerned how this re-opening trade may impact inflation in the region, but for now, the majority of investors are prepared to look past this concern and focus on the growth side of the ledger. On the macro front, the World Bank has once again insisted on highlighting significant downside risks to the global economic growth outlook, cutting its 2023 global growth forecast from 3.4% to 1.7%. In the US yesterday, headline risk from Fed Chair Powell's speech was underwhelming, as he failed to make remarks regarding the future path of interest rates, although he did suggest that unpopular decisions may still be on the horizon for the US central bank.The data calendar for the trading day ahead is scant, with no tier-one data of note in the UK, Europe, or the US, as such market watchers are firmly focused on tomorrow's CPI print, the bulls will hoping for further confirmation of a peak in inflation, drawing solace from recent indicators from both the Eurozone and the US that suggest peak inflation may well be in the rearview mirror, markets are looking for further declines in headline inflation buoyed by the recent retreat in energy prices, while core goods should also see declines as supply bottlenecks are finally resolving, the main concern for the bullish thesis is services inflation which has proved somewhat more stubbornly elevated, given the continued tightness in the employment market. Ahead of the US inflation release, China is expected to announce PPI and CPI inflation data overnight, declines in recent months have been well received, with both metrics printing back-to-back monthly declines into the back end of 2022, the key question for markets now will be the impact of the removal of Covid restrictions and whether or not this will cause a lift in inflation expectations.Markets-wise earnings releases from the UK retail sector will be parsed by investors, as hopes that the Christmas commercial season won't prove to be as disastrous as many market watchers had thought heading into the festive period, however, the major concern for investors will be the 2023 outlook for the sector, as consumer demand is expected to decline in the first half of the year as the cost of living crisis and continues to bite. Bond yields in both the UK and the US remained supported yesterday, although they have softened overnight, Sterling remains supported against the greenback holding above the pivotal 1.21 level, although GBP remains sub 0.8850 against the Euro.Overnight HeadlinesOil Dips As Industry Data Point To Hefty Rise In US StockpilesAsia Markets Mostly Rise, As Weak Yen Boosts Japan’s NikkeiJP Trading Desk Sees Inflation Data Bolstering Bear-Market RallyWorld Bank Warns Global Economy Could Tip Into Recession In 2023Top China Securities Paper Sees Room For RRR, Rate Cuts In 2023 - CSJChinese Developers Facing $141 Billion In Maturing Bonds This Year - NikkeiAustralia Rate Bets Firm After Stronger Inflation, Retail SalesMost Japan Households Expect Prices To Rise In Year Ahead - BoJYellen To Stay On At Biden’s Request As Showdown Over Debt NearsNorth American Leaders Set Aside Tensions To Focus On Chips And MigrationEU Wants Details Of Big Tech, Telcos Investment Plans - RTRS SourceDollar Treads Water Near 7-Month Lows Ahead Of U.S. Inflation DataTreasury Yields Can Fall to 2% on Recession Risks, Jupiter SayFX Options Expiration, New York Cut 10am ESTEUR/USD: 1.0750 (EU1.57B), 1.1375 (EU1.08B), 1.2322 (EU1.01B)USD/CNY: 8.0000 ($1.16B), 6.8000 ($689.4M), 6.9000 ($675.4M)USD/JPY: 133.50 ($1.35B), 132.50 ($1.07B), 132.00 ($1.01B)AUD/USD: 0.6990 (AUD1.77B), 0.6950 (AUD894.9M), 0.6900 (AUD585.2M)USD/CAD: 1.3400 ($1.11B), 1.3200 ($800M)USD/MXN: 19.50 ($405.1M), 18.95 ($390M), 19.30 ($382.9M)GBP/USD: 1.1600 (GBP606M), 1.3600 (GBP325.7M), 1.2150 (GBP310.3M)USD/KRW: 1360.00 ($540M)NZD/USD: 0.5850 (NZD820.5M), 0.5550 (NZD450.5M), 0.5750 (NZD347.8M)EUR/GBP: 0.8605 (EU369.7M)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3865 - 3950 Target AchievedPrimary support is 3865Primary objective is 4000Below 3850 opens 383020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0737Primary resistance is 1.0830Primary objective is 1.0450Above 1.0750 opens 1.083020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.23Primary resistance is 1.23Primary objective 1.1720Above 1.2330 opens 1.244020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 130.50Primary support is 130.50Primary objective is 137Below 130 opens 129.5020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6960Primary resistance is .6960Primary objective is .6650Above .6970 opens .705020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 17300Primary resistance17300Primary objective is 16300Above 17300 opens 1750020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-11-2023"
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What makes up the price of a litre of petrol?

The cost of filling the average car with fuel is falling. Here’s what makes up the price of a litre of petrol.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/budget/604621/what-makes-up-the-price-of-a-litre-of-petrol
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Market Spotlight: IAG Pause Offers Opportunities

IAG Up on The YearShares in British Airways parent company International Consolidated Airlines Group are seeing a mild pullback on Tuesday. IAG stock has been one of the best performers so far in 2023, rising over 11% from the January open. With shares now sitting just off yesterday’s highs, the current price might be a good opportunity for bulls to get in ahead of a fresh leg higher in coming sessions.IAG shares have been on a recovery rally since the October 2022 lows and despite the pullback from the November highs, the stock looks to be turning higher again now. The post-pandemic recovery is still ongoing in the aviation sector and with China now reopening its borders for the first time since the pandemic began, travel projections for the year ahead are lifting. While the cost of living crisis is creating some headwinds to customer demand, the outlook for travel in 2023 broadly is positive with IAG forecasting customer number to return to 95% of pre-pandemic levels over Q1.Investment Banks Turned BullishGoldman Sachs appear to buy into this view with the US bank issuing a fresh upside target this week of 150 on the company’s stock. This comes on the back of UBS issuing a higher target of 165 and Deutsche Bank hitting the mid-point around 155. The prevailing view seems to be that cheaper fuel prices, a weaker US Dollar and an uptick in global travel linked to China reopening will help drive the stock higher from here.  Technical ViewsIAGThe correction lower from the 156.30 level found firm support into the 124.24 level with price now moving back above the bearish trend line and above the 141.24 level. With momentum studies turned bullish here, the focus is on a continuation higher. With that in mind, 156.30 is the key level for bulls to break, opening the way for a 177.82 move thereafter.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-iag-pause-offers-opportunities"
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Fuel prices dip, but prices are still remain high

Fuel prices have dipped, but how much will you pay now and how can you save on the costs of driving?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605068/how-to-cut-your-cars-fuel-bill-as-the-price-of-petrol-hits-a-record-high
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Market Spotlight: Harbour Energy Reversing QuicklyHigher

HBR Rising Shares in FTSE 250 listed Harbour Energy PLC are among the biggest gainers on the index today. HBR shares are up nearly 3% from the European open with the stock boosted by the general uptick in risk appetite we’re seeing so far this year. The company which is the largest UK-listed independent oil and gas company has seen its shares rallying around 14% off the initial lows printed last week with price now close to testing the December 2021 highs.Notably, the move comes despite weaker energy prices over the same period. Harbour recently reviewed its capital allocation in the midst of the windfall energy taxes applied by the Sunak government at the November budget.  Harbour refrained from bidding on new projects in the North Sea in light of these taxes, a move which shareholders appear to have backed given the recovery we’re seeing in the company’s stock price early in 2023.Technical ViewsHarbour EnergyThe reversal back above the 299 level is an important technical development for the stock, holding the potential to mark a large double-bottom pattern against the July 2022 lows. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher while price holds above this level. The stock is now testing the bearish trend line from 2022 highs with the 322.7 December 2022 highs acting as resistance also. If bulls can break this zone, there is room for a much higher push towards 365.6 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-harbour-energy-reversing-quicklyhigher"
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BTC1! Futures ( BTC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:17595Pivot:16710Support:16090Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BTC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 17595, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.Alternative Scenario:Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 16710, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/btc1-futures-btc1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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The IndeX Files 10-01-2023

Choppy Start to 2023 For MarketsIt’s been a muddy start to the year for equities markets with choppy actions seen across the globe. Early in January we’re seeing some clear divergence between different regions with European stocks currently noting the best performance while US stocks have been wrangled back from initial highs.Looking at the broader backdrop, one key theme underpinning stocks here is that of ‘peak-inflation’, the idea that the CPI spiral we saw across last year is fading away now. With both the eurozone and the US recording two consecutive monthly declines in inflation, traders have begun anticipating that central banks might pull away from their tightening schedules quicker than expected. In the US, however, this idea was diluted yesterday by comments from Fed’s Bostic and Daly who both called on the need to push ahead with rates, saying that the Fed would likely hike rates above 5%, where they would stay for some time.In Europe, however, better eurozone data recently, cooling inflation and lower energy prices are contributing to a more encouraging backdrop for investors. The Dax has seen heavy gains this week, rallying more than 6% on the year so far. UK stocks have been a little more mixed while Asian stocks have been boosted by the China reopening story. China relaxed border controls for the first time in 3 years over the weekend. While there are still concerns around soaring covid levels, the longer run view is a return to higher demand and activity which is helping lift stocks currently.Technical ViewsDAXThe rally in the DAX this year has seen the index breaking above the 14703.98 level and the 2022 highs, supported by the bullish trend line off 2022 lows. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continued push higher here with 15076.81 the next big level to note for bulls.S&P 500The index remains underpinned by the 3814 level for now. Price recently popped above 39210 but has stalled into a test of the bearish channel top. While below here, there is a risk of a further break lower. Any move below the 3814 will open the way for a test of the 3647 level next.FTSEThe rally in the FTSE this year has seen price breaking out above the bear channel top while blowing through several key resistance levels. For now, price is stalled around the 7678.8 level and with momentum studies firmly bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards 7904.7 while 7575.8 holds as support.NIKKEIThe sell off in the Nikkei has stalled for now into a test of the 25500.5 lows. The subsequent rebound has made it as far as 26246 currently, with these levels marking the bull/bear lines for the current phase of price action. Momentum studies are turning higher here suggesting that might be some room for a further recovery.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-index-files-10-01-2023"
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