Nikkei Futures ( NKD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish continuation

Type: Bearish continuationKey Levels:Resistance:26555Pivot:25960Support:25610Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NKD1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 25610, where the previous swing low is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 25960, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line isFundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nikkei-futures-nkd1-h4-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise Ahead

Last week Bitcoin jumped quite a bit, forming the tower candlestick. This candlestick is strongly supported at the level of 16000. The price of Bitcoin also broke the weekly downtrend and got back to the supporting level of 16000. Next, Bitcoin has tested the broken trendline. The asset has been remaining in a very narrow range for eight weeks in a row, preparing for the next breakout.Should Bitcoin manage to break the level of 21000, it is likely to jump. Considering the width of the broken trend and the depth of Bitcoin’s drop, it is safe to say that the price of Bitcoin might potentially hit the level of 40000. Although to get the required momentum for the rise, the asset will have to break two more resistances at levels 25500 and 30000. So, let’s observe what will happen next.The price of the currency pair EUR/USD broke the resistance at the level of 1.0785. Currently, the asset is trying to remain above the broken line. Should the asset’s price remain the same at the beginning of the next trading week, the currency pair might keep going up.Silver is repeatedly approaching the resistance at the level of 24.75 although it’s not clear just yet what is about to happen next. It would be wise to follow the price movements next to this level to predict the asset’s next move. Although gold is going up so silver might follow this trend as well.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-ahead"
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Dollar under pressure as consensus over soft inflation figures in 2023 grows

The dollar fell to its lowest level in 7 months, and bond yields stabilized after a sharp fall on Thursday, as another decline in major US inflation indicators raised hopes for an early end to the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, and even its first rate cut in the second half of the year.On Friday, the dollar index fell just under 0.1% to 102.20, with the biggest losses coming from strengthening Yen, reflecting the fact that the Bank of Japan has only recently begun to consider raising its YCC target to 0.5%.The decline in the US CPI was perhaps less impressive than it first appeared, with almost everything attributed to a 9% drop in gasoline prices that could easily be reversed. However, analysts were almost unanimous that these figures are proof that inflation has reached its peak. This was also reflected in the inflation expectations component of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, released on Friday.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-under-pressure-as-consensus-over-soft-inflation-figures-in-2023-grows"
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The Odds of a Dovish Fed in February Increase, Putting Pressure on the USD

US equities closed in green on Thursday, while on Friday a profit taking mood prevails with US futures on the slippery slope. The dollar index holds above the 102 level, but the yen's strong gains indicate lower expectations that the Treasury-JGB rate differential will remain wide. USDJPY declined 0.75% and closely follows the rate differential:Despite positive returns in commodity markets today, currencies such as the NZD and AUD are slightly in the red, indicating growing concerns about the economic momentum in China.EURUSD tested 1.085 but somewhat erased part of the gains amid an under-hawkish CPI report for December, with the market forecasting less than 50bp. of the Fed tightening in February and March. The 10-year bond yield broke through 3.5% and is trading a few points lower. There is growing consensus in the market that the Fed will raise rates by just 25 basis points in February.The US December CPI report pointed to lower prices for core goods, but inflation remained strong in the services sector. As a result, the market focus on the labor market data, such as the NFP report, will likely increase as it becomes clear that inflation coming from the services sector wages becomes the key driver of headline inflation:The February FOMC meeting is getting closer, and the market is divided between whether the central bank will choose a 25basis point or 50 basis point rate hike. After raising rates by 425 bp. there is a strong possibility that the Fed will prefer to fall back to more conventional 25bp increases, given that most of the work on the tightening policy has already been done, and there are signs that the economy is reacting to it. However, inflation remains well above the 2% target and the labor market is still in deficit, with the unemployment rate back to a cyclical low of 3.5%. If the Fed decides to raise rates by 25bp, the regulator will probably try to compensate for such a move by saying that this is not the end of the rate hike cycle and that another 25bp is expected in March. This will leave the Fed funds target range ceiling at 5%.The flow of data next week will have an important impact on the decision. The calendar includes retail sales, industrial production, housing sales and producer price inflation. Activity is likely to be subdued as retail sales declined due to a significant drop in car sales in December, while lower household incomes and bad weather could also help reduce spending. Industrial production is also likely to fall, given the weakness seen in key surveys such as the ISM report on manufacturing, whose manufacturing component fell into contraction territory (below 50) for the first time since May 2020. The housing market data is likely to be weak as mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past 12 months, making home buying even less affordable. Given the market fluctuation from excess demand to excess supply, the fall in transactions will also be accompanied by a decline in housing prices.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-odds-of-a-dovish-fed-in-february-increase-putting-pressure-on-the-usd"
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Smartphone banking: the best app-based bank accounts

App-based banks are convenient, come with features that help you budget and make banking easy. What are the best app-based accounts available now?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/bank-accounts/600850/smartphone-banking-the-best-app-based-bank-accounts
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GDP grows by 0.1% in November

GDP records a 0.1% growth for November, but does this mean the UK may escape a recession?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605645/gdp-november-growth
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Aluminum Futures ( ALUMINIL ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:218.00Pivot:211.00Support:201.40Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ALUMINIL is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 218.00, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 211.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/aluminum-futures-aluminil-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 13, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 13, 2023 Markets Poised To Post Weekly Back To Back Gains For The Start of 2023Asian Equities are set to close out the week with a positive tone, following a whipsaw session on Wall Street, as investors digested US inflation data, markets are coalescing around the view that peak inflation is now firmly in the rearview mirror, as such investors hope that US interest rates are also close to peaking. US inflation as expected, posted a sixth month of declines, this has led markets to favour a 25bps rate move at the next FOMC meeting, which inturn has supported US equities with the benchmark SP500 closing the day with modest gains, and now heading for a potential second week of positive returns for the new year..Risk sentiment has been further supported this morning, with UK GDP data surprising to the upside, posting a 0.1% gain in November, under the hood construction activity is subdued, with industrial production remaining depressed, however, the services sector displayed unexpected buoyancy, the data bucks the trend of declines, suggesting that unless December numbers post a meaningful drop, economist projections for another quarter of negative GDP data in the UK may be misguided.Aside from the UK GDP the data slate is somewhat sparse ahead of the US trading session, focus today will be on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, with consumer sentiment lifting in December given the hope that inflation has peaked, further confirmation from yesterday’s CPI data combined with lower fuel prices stateside, leads market watchers to expect another lift in consumer appetite in January, investors will also look for additional declines in inflation expectations to cement the peak inflation narrative. Investors will eye remarks from a  host of Fed speakers today, prior positive market reactions to the reduction in inflation data, have been followed by Fed speakers reaffirming their hawkish stance and restating their alliance around a rate story of ‘higher for longer’, if this pattern is repeated today, this could weigh on risk appetite into the weeknd, bulls will be hoping that today’s officials Williams and Kashkari, follow Philly Fed President Harker, who yesterday leaned towards a slower rate path favouring a 25bps move at the next meeting.Markets-wise, the US earnings season kicks off in earnest today, with major financial franchises set to report, JPMorgan are due to announce before the bell and will likely set the tone for US trading, followed by Blackrock, BNY Mellon, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi. Markets will be buoyed into the weekend as long as earnings meet expectations, any major misses from the marquee names could derail risk sentiment and lead to repricing of risk assets before the close of trading for the week.Overnight News of NoteOil Heads For Solid Weekly Gain On China Demand Hopes - CNBCAsian Stocks Mostly Higher In Choppy Trading On Friday, Japan DeclinesFed's Bostic: New Inflation Data Gives 'Comfort' For Smaller Rate HikesFed's Harker Ready To Downshift To 25 Basis-Point Interest Rate HikesUS Budget Deficit Hits $421 Billion, Setting Stage For Debt-Limit FightIMF Chief Expects To Keep 2023 Global Growth Forecast Steady At 2.7%Bank Of Korea Hikes Key Rate As Tightening Cycle Winds DownChina’s Exports Slump Further As Global Demand Drops OffBoJ Watchers See Earlier Policy Shift After December’s SurpriseJapan Bond Yield Breaks BOJ’s New Policy Cap in Test of ResolveBoJ Conducts Unscheduled Bond Buying As Yield Breaches CeilingDollar Wobbles As U.S. Inflation Fuels Hopes Of Slower Fed Rate PathGlobal Bonds Rally As Cooler US Inflation Set to Spur Fed ShiftSEC Sues Gemini And Genesis Over Crypto Asset-Lending ProgrammeChina Takes ‘Golden Shares’ In Alibaba And Tencent Units - FTTesla Cuts Prices On Electric Vehicles For German And US Market(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)FX Options Expiration, New York Cut 10am ESTEUR/USD: 1.0750 (EU2.76B), 1.0850 (EU1.88B), 1.0600 (EU1.79B)USD/JPY: 139.50 ($729.1M), 131.00 ($707M), 136.00 ($612.3M)USD/CNY: 6.8000 ($799.4M), 6.8500 ($728M), 7.4000 ($710M)AUD/USD: 0.7125 (AUD1.87B), 0.6950 (AUD1.46B), 0.7000 (AUD1.34B)GBP/USD: 1.2000 (GBP1.06B), 1.1800 (GBP583M), 1.1433 (GBP437.3M)USD/MXN: 19.15 ($542.6M), 19.30 ($480M), 19.10 ($470M)USD/KRW: 1360.00 ($457.4M)USD/CAD: 1.3500 ($446.1M), 1.3300 ($430M)EUR/GBP: 0.8900 (EU841.6M)(Options Data DTCC)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3940 - 4000 Target Hit - New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 3940Primary objective is 4022Below 3940 opens 389020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0735Primary support  is 1.0735Primary objective is 1.09Below 1.0730 opens 1.0620 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support  is 1.21Primary objective 1.2315Below 1.21 opens 1.2020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 130Primary resistance is 130Primary objective is 126.25Above 130.80 opens 132.2020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6920Primary support is .6920Primary objective is .7030Below .6900 opens .682020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 18350 - 18900 Target Hit -New Pattern EmergingPrimary support 18350Primary objective is 19155Below 18300 opens 1800020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-13-2023"
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Pension contributions: what you need to declare on your tax return

Make sure you don't forget to declare your pension contributions in your tax return

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/600675/pension-contributions-what-you-need-to-declare-on-your-tax-return
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John Lewis launches new reward credit card - is it any good?

John Lewis shoppers can now get something back every time they spend at the giant retailer with an all new rewards credit card. We have all the details and look at how it compares

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605642/john-lewis-partnerhsip-reward-credit-card-compared
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Daily Market Outlook, January 12, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 12, 2023 China Inflation Surprises On The Downside, Will The US Follow Suit?Overnight inflation data from China came printed in line with expectations at 1.8% year over year, however, there was a downside surprise with respect to producer price inflation, which declined to -0.7% with market watchers pencilling in a -0.1%, the number confirms a third month of decline in stark contrast to the 10.3% levels seen 12 months ago. Asian equities took further solace from a report in the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri which floated the idea that the Bank of Japan will further review the impact of its Yield Curve Control strategy, the central bank is believed to be favouring further actions to reduce the market distortions created by its decade-old easy monetary policy, the timing of this review caught markets off guard as most market watchers expected this announcement to be delayed until Governor Kuroda departs the BoJ in April. The combination of the Chinese data and the BoJ review announcement supported Asian equity markets overnight, which carried over from a strong close on Wall Street with the benchmark SP500 posting a solid 1.28% gain.The data slate for the trading day ahead is dominated by the US inflation release this afternoon, market watchers are primed for a further retreat in headline inflation stateside, inflation is widely expected to show a sixth consecutive month of declines, the median forecast amongst economists' is for a 6.5% headline figure, with a 5.7% core rate (excluding food and energy), the core read likely reflects the decline seen in goods price inflation which has been assisted by the recent reduction in supply chain bottleneck constraints, the fly in the ointment remains the services sector, where inflation remains stubbornly elevated driven by tight labour market conditions in the US. Today's CPI print is a critical input into the US central bank's considerations for its next rate move, a 0.1% move on either side of the consensus will likely decide whether the Fed raises rates by 25 or 50bps at its next meeting, the Fed fund futures market is currently pricing a circa 31bps rate move at the next meeting.Markets-wise, the only game in town today will be the market's reaction to the inflation print, an inline or slightly softer print of something closer to 6% will likely see a positive response from equity investors with the SP500 likely gaining a further 1-2% on the day, this would weigh on the greenback supporting emerging market currencies, a print sub 6% would fuel more outsized gains in markets igniting a rally of 2.5%+ in the US benchmark. The bearish thesis will gain traction on any number above 6.6%, with markets likely rapidly repricing risk sentiment, shedding 1-2% on the downside and adding support to the Dollar, any number close to or above 7% would be a significant bearish development for risk appetite, as this would provide further cover for the Fed to increase rates, placing further focus on a higher terminal rate for the current US rate cycle, on the day we could easily see the SP500 lose over 2.5% with the US Dollar making a push to reclaim the 105 handle.Overnight HeadlinesTreasuries Rally With Stocks, Hold Gain After Solid 10-Year SaleOil Pushes Higher For Sixth Session Ahead Of US Inflation DataGlobal Stocks Becalmed Thursday Before Potential CPI StormBoJ To Inspect Side Effects Of Ultra-Loose Policy - YomiuriJapan Posts Record Current Account Surplus For NovemberChina’s Factory Deflation Continues As Covid Outbreaks SpreadChina Confident, Capable Of Keeping Prices Stable In 2023 - NDRCChina’s Household Loans May Rebound In 2023 - Securities NewsAustralia Extends Run Of Trade Surpluses On Metals ExportsNew Zealand Sees Record-Low House Sales As Buyers Step AwayFed’s Collins Backs Slowdown As Support Mounts For Smaller Rate MoveBarclays Raises U.S. GDP 1st-Qtr Forecast, Sees Mild Recession From Q2ECB’s De Cos Sees ‘Significant’ Rate Hikes At Coming MeetingsGlobal Foreign Reserves Dwindle As Countries Counter Dollar's RiseYen Climbs As Traders Weigh Report On BoJ Side-Effects CheckTSMC Tops Profit Estimates, Bucking Trend As Chip Industry CoolsFX Options Expiration, New York Cut 10am ESTEUR/USD: 1.6000 (EU537.5M), 1.1222 (EU441.1M), 1.1573 (EU432M)USD/CNY: 7.4000 ($1.25B), 7.6000 ($1B), 7.4960 ($500M)AUD/USD: 0.6825 (AUD560.6M)USD/JPY: 140.00 ($1.27B), 130.00 ($381M)USD/CAD: 1.2900 ($1.81B), 1.3655 ($1.49B), 1.3650 ($1.38B)USD/KRW: 1266.50 ($1.05B), 1216.50 ($1.05B), 1385.50 ($925.9M)USD/MXN: 19.00 ($465.5M), 19.50 ($451.5M)USD/BRL: 5.5000 ($456.4M), 5.6750 ($399.8M), 4.9000 ($350M)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3865Primary support is 3865Primary objective is 4000Below 3850 opens 383020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0737Primary resistance is 1.0830Primary objective is 1.0450Above 1.0750 opens 1.083020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.23Primary resistance is 1.23Primary objective 1.1720Above 1.2330 opens 1.244020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 130.50Primary support is 130.50Primary objective is 137Below 130 opens 129.5020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6960Primary resistance is .6960Primary objective is .6650Above .6970 opens .705020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 17600Primary support 17600Primary objective is 18900Below 17500 opens 1710020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-12-2023"
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Nasdaq 100 Futures ( NQ1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:12339.00Pivot:11465.00Support:10758.75 Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud,indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 12339.00, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may break the pivot at 11465.00, where the 50% Fibonacci line is, before heading towards the support 10758.75, where the previous swing low is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nasdaq-100-futures-nq1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise"
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Cotton Futures ( CT1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:87.97Pivot:82.36Support:80.37Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 87.97, where the recent high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 82.36, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/cotton-futures-ct1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise12"
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Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise

Type: Bullish RiseKey Levels:Resistance:81.06Pivot:73.40Support:74.33Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 81.06, where the previous highs are. Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to retest the support at 74.33, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/crude-oil-futures-cl1-h4-potential-for-bullish-rise12"
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