Market Spotlight: Goldman Earnings in Focus Today

Goldman To Follow JPM & Citi?Shares in US banking giant Goldman Sachs are trading higher ahead of the open today as traders brace for the group’s Q4 earnings. A slew of strong earnings from leading financials on Friday has helped stoke sentiment ahead of the release. In terms of the numbers, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $5.56 on revenues of $10.75 billion. Goldman has been on a strong run recently with three consecutive quarters of topping analyst expectations. Given the current backdrop, a strong result today should propel GS shares back up towards the November 2022 highs around $388.However, as we saw with JPM and Citi last week, alongside the headline figures, traders will also be looking at the breakdown of the group’s business sectors. With both banks recording a heavy drop in investment banking revenues, investors are bracing for a similar story from Goldman today. The market will also be keen to head CEO Solomon’s outlook and how he views downside risks not just to the bank but the US economy as a whole, particularly in light of Goldman laying off more than 3000 employees just last week.Technical ViewsGSThe rally in GS shares has seen the stock climbing back above the 357.35 level. Price is now testing the area of resistance around the bull channel top and the 377.76 structural level. This is a key resistance zone for GS and a break above here will open the way for a further run towards 402.39 next, in line with bullish momentum studies readings.

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Daily Market Outlook, January 17, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 17, 2023 China Growth Concerns Cap Asian Equities EX Japan, BoJ Bets Supports The NikkeiChina growth concerns have put a cap on the Asian equity markets' bullish sentiment with the MSCI Asia Pac index retreating from seven month highs. China data confirmed 2022 as a dire year for the region with a meagre 3% annual GDP from 8.4% the year before, confirming lowest levels in 50 years. While Q4 GDP marginally exceeded economist expectations at 2.9% versus 1.6%, down from 3.9% in Q3  22, Asian investors pared support for Chinese equities, investors will be hoping that the contraction in growth may spur further stimulus measures to tackle the economic distress driven by last years strict Covid restrictions. Uk employment data released earlier this morning has added pressure on the Bank of England who may now be poised to raise interest rates for the tenth consecutive time at their next meeting. While the unemployment rate remained anchored at 3.7% for the three months to November, however, UK wage growth once again topped expectations for both headline and ex bonus metrics, printing 6.4% above the expected 6.2%. The robust data has the UK benchmark FTSE index teerting on break out to new all time highs.In the Eurozone investor focus this morning will be on the German ZEW survey for January, market watchers are anticipating continued marginal improvement in investor sentiment, the last print was -23.3, analysts are looking for at least a 10 point pick up in expectations, while the current situation view is also expected to improve from the -61.4, further upticks in expectations and the current situation perspectives would suggest the potential for a milder downturn in the Eurozone economy, this comes at a time when Bank of America’s Fund Manager survey shows investors are the most bullish the region since Feb ‘22.In the US all eyes will be on New York Empire manufacturing data one of many regional surveys due to show where sentiment sits heading into the new year, market watchers are pencilling marginal improvements from -11.2 to -5.0 Markets-wise, all eye are this evenings Bank of Japan meeting, arguably one of the most market moving central bank meetings of the year, although markets don’t expect an explicit policy change, markets are poised for official statements, since the surprise policy adjustment in December, markets are increasingly betting on an end of the decade long Yield Curve Control strategy, investors are poised for volatility with options markets pricing the potential for a 200-285 pip move either side of the spot price going into the meeting, current spot reference is 128.50Overnight News of NoteAsia Shares Slip Overnight On Weak Q4 China Economic DataUS Futures Lower As Investors Look To Corporate Earnings BoJ Policy Change Fears Sidelines Bond Sales Amid Spreads RisingOil Steadies As Investors Look To Chinese Demand Increase Goldman Sees ‘Bullish Concoction’ For Global Commodities Gold Prices Dips As Firmer Dollar Demand Lowers AppealChinese Growth Drops To Near-Historic Lows After Covid ReopenChina Population Shrinks In First Time Since 1960s In Seismic ShiftSec Blinken Set To Test Limits Of Chinese Diplomatic EngagementChief Executives, Economists Brace For Recession As Davos BeginsNew BoJ Governor Nominee Set To Be Presented On February 10Australia Consumer Sentiment Posts Biggest Gain In Nine MonthsEU Hopes Of Italy ESM Approval May Be Premature, Official SaysBoE Governor Warns Of Upside Risks From Labour Market, ChinaChinese Chip Giant Weighs IPOs, Land Sales To Slash Debt BurdenFoxconn Replaces iPhone Assembly Chief After Tumultuous YearsWestern Banks Struggling To Exit Russia After Putin Interventions(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)FX Options Expiration, New York Cut 10am ESTUSD/JPY 125.00 ($651M) 127.85 ($325M) 130.22 ($570M)AUD/USD: 0.6800 (A$2.0B) 0.7210 (A$1.4B)(Options Data DTCC)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3950 Primary support is 3950Primary objective is 4022Below 3940 opens 389020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0735Primary support  is 1.0735Primary objective is 1.09Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support  is 1.21Primary objective 1.2315Below 1.21 opens 1.2020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 130Primary resistance is 130Primary objective is 125.50Above 130.80 opens 132.2020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6920Primary support is .6920Primary objective is .7030Below .6900 opens .682020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 20000Primary support 20000Primary objective is 22400Below 19900 opens 1930020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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US dollar: bearish sentiment still prevails despite major decline

After falling last week by 2% to 101.80, the dollar index rebounded on Monday amid no visible bearish catalysts to push lower. The rebound could be also facilitated by the fact that the price has reached the lower bound of the bearish channel:From a technical point of view, upside USD correction after the significant drop may extend to 102.50, but the main trend remains bearish with a key target at 100 points.The US market is having a partial Martin Luther King Day holiday today, so market prices will likely remain range-bound. The economic calendar this week is nothing special, with US retail sales, industrial production and existing home sales adding to the picture that the NFP and CPI report for December have formed. However, positive surprises are not expected and moderately negative readings (i.e. surprises on the downside) are unlikely to change the forecast for Fed rate hikes in February and March. Consensus forecast calls for two increases of 25 bp.The market is now clearly biased to get ahead of itself and price in rate cuts for this year, along with the recovery of economic activity in China, this increases investor interest in EM currencies, where expected returns increase. What seems to be a compelling call in the market right now is that the dollar has reversed, the pressure on EM currencies through rate hikes has declined significantly, and 2023 will mark a trend of inflows to emerging markets, lower rates and upside trends in EM bond markets. Indeed, one of the benchmark bond market indices in the national currency of developing countries has already gained 4.2% this year and trimmed more than two-thirds of last year's fall. The continued success of this story clearly depends on both the soft Fed story and more positive news from China.As far as China is concerned, we see that local authorities acknowledge the rise in the death toll following the abandonment of the zero-spread Covid policy last November. It is clear that any new closure will undermine optimism this year. In addition, China's fourth-quarter GDP is due tomorrow and is expected to contract from the exceptionally low quarter by 1.5% year-on-year.Also a lot of attention this week will be paid to the meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Wednesday. Further adjustments to JGB targets are in the spotlight and investors are bracing for this with higher interest rates on long-term swaps. Japanese 10-year swap rates rose another 5 basis points overnight to their highest level in a decade. USD/JPY may fall to 126.50 before Wednesday on expectations of new hawkish BoJ decisions:Factors putting pressure on DXY below 102 remain in place and if the decline does resume DXY may find support in the 101.30-101.50 area.EUR/USD continues to try to settle above 1.09. The focus in Europe this week could be some keynote speakers at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak on Friday. We will also see some data from Germany in the final CPI and ZEW investor outlook survey, which is expected to improve. As above, the EUR/USD rate is likely to depend on the events in Asia this week. However, EURUSD is unlikely to rise above 1.0900-1.0950.Also this week there will be a meeting of the Norges Bank. A final 25bp rate hike is expected, up to 3.00%. Demand remains on the oil market amid expected growth in demand from China which should continue to offer support to the NOK.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us-dollar-bearish-sentiment-still-prevails-despite-major-decline"
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House prices rise in January

Rightmove reveals house prices went up in January, with the asking price up by thousands

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Market Spotlight: BOJ Speculation Risks EURJPY Downside Break

EURJPY Sitting on Key Level Price action in EURJPY is looking interesting here. The pair is currently sitting near the middle of the 133.27 – 147.75 range which has framed price action since Q2 last year. Over the last few months, EURJPY has been correcting lower, despite broad strength in EUR. Of late, JPY has turned sharply higher driven by speculation that the BOJ might be close to beginning policy normalisation after sticking to its easing strategy throughout the post-pandemic period to date, despite other central banks in the G10 firmly embarking on tightening operations. This speculation is driving a shift in expectations and has the potential to cause a major shift in markets if the BOJ gives any sign this week that tighter monetary policy is on the horizon.The monetary policy divergence between the BOJ and other central banks was a key driver of downside action in JPY last year. However, with central banks such as the Fed, BOC and RBA having pivoted on rates, that monetary policy divergence is narrowing. Should the BOJ give any hawkish signals this week, we can expect that divergence to narrow at a faster pace, driving JPY higher near-term. With the retail market building a larger long position in EURJPY currently 62%, there is plenty of room for a downside break in the near-term.Technical ViewsEURJPYThe correction lower from last year’s highs has seen the market moving broadly within a corrective bear channel, taking price below the bullish trend line from last year’s lows. With price having recently failed at a retest of the bull trend line, the outlook remains in favour of further downside near-term, in line with weakening momentum studies. The key level to watch is the 137.74 level with a break of this area opening the way for a run down to 133.27 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-boj-speculation-risks-eurjpy-downside-break"
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Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop

Type: Bearish DropKey Levels:Resistance:154.30Pivot:164.00Support:142.05Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 142.05, where the recent low is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back up to retest the resistance at 154.30, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/coffee-c-futures-kc1-h4-potential-for-bearish-drop"
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Nikkei Futures ( NKD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish continuation

Type: Bearish continuationKey Levels:Resistance:26555Pivot:25960Support:25610Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NKD1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 25610, where the previous swing low is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 25960, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line isFundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/nikkei-futures-nkd1-h4-potential-for-bearish-continuation"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise Ahead

Last week Bitcoin jumped quite a bit, forming the tower candlestick. This candlestick is strongly supported at the level of 16000. The price of Bitcoin also broke the weekly downtrend and got back to the supporting level of 16000. Next, Bitcoin has tested the broken trendline. The asset has been remaining in a very narrow range for eight weeks in a row, preparing for the next breakout.Should Bitcoin manage to break the level of 21000, it is likely to jump. Considering the width of the broken trend and the depth of Bitcoin’s drop, it is safe to say that the price of Bitcoin might potentially hit the level of 40000. Although to get the required momentum for the rise, the asset will have to break two more resistances at levels 25500 and 30000. So, let’s observe what will happen next.The price of the currency pair EUR/USD broke the resistance at the level of 1.0785. Currently, the asset is trying to remain above the broken line. Should the asset’s price remain the same at the beginning of the next trading week, the currency pair might keep going up.Silver is repeatedly approaching the resistance at the level of 24.75 although it’s not clear just yet what is about to happen next. It would be wise to follow the price movements next to this level to predict the asset’s next move. Although gold is going up so silver might follow this trend as well.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-ahead"
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Dollar under pressure as consensus over soft inflation figures in 2023 grows

The dollar fell to its lowest level in 7 months, and bond yields stabilized after a sharp fall on Thursday, as another decline in major US inflation indicators raised hopes for an early end to the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, and even its first rate cut in the second half of the year.On Friday, the dollar index fell just under 0.1% to 102.20, with the biggest losses coming from strengthening Yen, reflecting the fact that the Bank of Japan has only recently begun to consider raising its YCC target to 0.5%.The decline in the US CPI was perhaps less impressive than it first appeared, with almost everything attributed to a 9% drop in gasoline prices that could easily be reversed. However, analysts were almost unanimous that these figures are proof that inflation has reached its peak. This was also reflected in the inflation expectations component of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, released on Friday.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-under-pressure-as-consensus-over-soft-inflation-figures-in-2023-grows"
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The Odds of a Dovish Fed in February Increase, Putting Pressure on the USD

US equities closed in green on Thursday, while on Friday a profit taking mood prevails with US futures on the slippery slope. The dollar index holds above the 102 level, but the yen's strong gains indicate lower expectations that the Treasury-JGB rate differential will remain wide. USDJPY declined 0.75% and closely follows the rate differential:Despite positive returns in commodity markets today, currencies such as the NZD and AUD are slightly in the red, indicating growing concerns about the economic momentum in China.EURUSD tested 1.085 but somewhat erased part of the gains amid an under-hawkish CPI report for December, with the market forecasting less than 50bp. of the Fed tightening in February and March. The 10-year bond yield broke through 3.5% and is trading a few points lower. There is growing consensus in the market that the Fed will raise rates by just 25 basis points in February.The US December CPI report pointed to lower prices for core goods, but inflation remained strong in the services sector. As a result, the market focus on the labor market data, such as the NFP report, will likely increase as it becomes clear that inflation coming from the services sector wages becomes the key driver of headline inflation:The February FOMC meeting is getting closer, and the market is divided between whether the central bank will choose a 25basis point or 50 basis point rate hike. After raising rates by 425 bp. there is a strong possibility that the Fed will prefer to fall back to more conventional 25bp increases, given that most of the work on the tightening policy has already been done, and there are signs that the economy is reacting to it. However, inflation remains well above the 2% target and the labor market is still in deficit, with the unemployment rate back to a cyclical low of 3.5%. If the Fed decides to raise rates by 25bp, the regulator will probably try to compensate for such a move by saying that this is not the end of the rate hike cycle and that another 25bp is expected in March. This will leave the Fed funds target range ceiling at 5%.The flow of data next week will have an important impact on the decision. The calendar includes retail sales, industrial production, housing sales and producer price inflation. Activity is likely to be subdued as retail sales declined due to a significant drop in car sales in December, while lower household incomes and bad weather could also help reduce spending. Industrial production is also likely to fall, given the weakness seen in key surveys such as the ISM report on manufacturing, whose manufacturing component fell into contraction territory (below 50) for the first time since May 2020. The housing market data is likely to be weak as mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past 12 months, making home buying even less affordable. Given the market fluctuation from excess demand to excess supply, the fall in transactions will also be accompanied by a decline in housing prices.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/the-odds-of-a-dovish-fed-in-february-increase-putting-pressure-on-the-usd"
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Smartphone banking: the best app-based bank accounts

App-based banks are convenient, come with features that help you budget and make banking easy. What are the best app-based accounts available now?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/bank-accounts/600850/smartphone-banking-the-best-app-based-bank-accounts
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GDP grows by 0.1% in November

GDP records a 0.1% growth for November, but does this mean the UK may escape a recession?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/economy/605645/gdp-november-growth
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Aluminum Futures ( ALUMINIL ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation

Type: Bullish ContinuationKey Levels:Resistance:218.00Pivot:211.00Support:201.40Preferred Case:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ALUMINIL is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 218.00, where the previous swing high is.Alternative Scenario:Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 211.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.Fundamentals:There are no major news.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/aluminum-futures-aluminil-h4-potential-for-bullish-continuation"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 13, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 13, 2023 Markets Poised To Post Weekly Back To Back Gains For The Start of 2023Asian Equities are set to close out the week with a positive tone, following a whipsaw session on Wall Street, as investors digested US inflation data, markets are coalescing around the view that peak inflation is now firmly in the rearview mirror, as such investors hope that US interest rates are also close to peaking. US inflation as expected, posted a sixth month of declines, this has led markets to favour a 25bps rate move at the next FOMC meeting, which inturn has supported US equities with the benchmark SP500 closing the day with modest gains, and now heading for a potential second week of positive returns for the new year..Risk sentiment has been further supported this morning, with UK GDP data surprising to the upside, posting a 0.1% gain in November, under the hood construction activity is subdued, with industrial production remaining depressed, however, the services sector displayed unexpected buoyancy, the data bucks the trend of declines, suggesting that unless December numbers post a meaningful drop, economist projections for another quarter of negative GDP data in the UK may be misguided.Aside from the UK GDP the data slate is somewhat sparse ahead of the US trading session, focus today will be on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, with consumer sentiment lifting in December given the hope that inflation has peaked, further confirmation from yesterday’s CPI data combined with lower fuel prices stateside, leads market watchers to expect another lift in consumer appetite in January, investors will also look for additional declines in inflation expectations to cement the peak inflation narrative. Investors will eye remarks from a  host of Fed speakers today, prior positive market reactions to the reduction in inflation data, have been followed by Fed speakers reaffirming their hawkish stance and restating their alliance around a rate story of ‘higher for longer’, if this pattern is repeated today, this could weigh on risk appetite into the weeknd, bulls will be hoping that today’s officials Williams and Kashkari, follow Philly Fed President Harker, who yesterday leaned towards a slower rate path favouring a 25bps move at the next meeting.Markets-wise, the US earnings season kicks off in earnest today, with major financial franchises set to report, JPMorgan are due to announce before the bell and will likely set the tone for US trading, followed by Blackrock, BNY Mellon, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi. Markets will be buoyed into the weekend as long as earnings meet expectations, any major misses from the marquee names could derail risk sentiment and lead to repricing of risk assets before the close of trading for the week.Overnight News of NoteOil Heads For Solid Weekly Gain On China Demand Hopes - CNBCAsian Stocks Mostly Higher In Choppy Trading On Friday, Japan DeclinesFed's Bostic: New Inflation Data Gives 'Comfort' For Smaller Rate HikesFed's Harker Ready To Downshift To 25 Basis-Point Interest Rate HikesUS Budget Deficit Hits $421 Billion, Setting Stage For Debt-Limit FightIMF Chief Expects To Keep 2023 Global Growth Forecast Steady At 2.7%Bank Of Korea Hikes Key Rate As Tightening Cycle Winds DownChina’s Exports Slump Further As Global Demand Drops OffBoJ Watchers See Earlier Policy Shift After December’s SurpriseJapan Bond Yield Breaks BOJ’s New Policy Cap in Test of ResolveBoJ Conducts Unscheduled Bond Buying As Yield Breaches CeilingDollar Wobbles As U.S. Inflation Fuels Hopes Of Slower Fed Rate PathGlobal Bonds Rally As Cooler US Inflation Set to Spur Fed ShiftSEC Sues Gemini And Genesis Over Crypto Asset-Lending ProgrammeChina Takes ‘Golden Shares’ In Alibaba And Tencent Units - FTTesla Cuts Prices On Electric Vehicles For German And US Market(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)FX Options Expiration, New York Cut 10am ESTEUR/USD: 1.0750 (EU2.76B), 1.0850 (EU1.88B), 1.0600 (EU1.79B)USD/JPY: 139.50 ($729.1M), 131.00 ($707M), 136.00 ($612.3M)USD/CNY: 6.8000 ($799.4M), 6.8500 ($728M), 7.4000 ($710M)AUD/USD: 0.7125 (AUD1.87B), 0.6950 (AUD1.46B), 0.7000 (AUD1.34B)GBP/USD: 1.2000 (GBP1.06B), 1.1800 (GBP583M), 1.1433 (GBP437.3M)USD/MXN: 19.15 ($542.6M), 19.30 ($480M), 19.10 ($470M)USD/KRW: 1360.00 ($457.4M)USD/CAD: 1.3500 ($446.1M), 1.3300 ($430M)EUR/GBP: 0.8900 (EU841.6M)(Options Data DTCC)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3940 - 4000 Target Hit - New Pattern EmergingPrimary support is 3940Primary objective is 4022Below 3940 opens 389020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0735Primary support  is 1.0735Primary objective is 1.09Below 1.0730 opens 1.0620 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support  is 1.21Primary objective 1.2315Below 1.21 opens 1.2020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 130Primary resistance is 130Primary objective is 126.25Above 130.80 opens 132.2020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6920Primary support is .6920Primary objective is .7030Below .6900 opens .682020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishBTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 18350 - 18900 Target Hit -New Pattern EmergingPrimary support 18350Primary objective is 19155Below 18300 opens 1800020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-13-2023"
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