Bitcoin is on the Rise: What’s Next?

Bitcoin broke the psychological level of 20000, touching the resistance at the level of 210000. Now, the price of Bitcoin is getting ready for the pullback. Bitcoin might potentially gain the required support at the level of 20000, pull from it, and jump. So, let’s observe what will happen next.Silver has approached the resistance at the level of 24.75 for the second time in a row but pulled back from this level and dropped. The asset might test the supporting level of 22.30 and jump anytime soon.Brent oil has touched the weekly downtrend denoted by the bold red line on the chart as well as the broken local uptrend. Currently, the price of oil is trying to pull from the crossing point of these trendlines and drop to the supporting level of 77.82.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-is-on-the-rise-what-s-next"
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Dovish surprise in US retail sales leaves little to salvage dollar bulls

The Bank of Japan dismissed market rumors about further adjustments in the yield curve control and left the policy unchanged today, disappointing recent yen buyers. The  Bloomberg report released yesterday about the ECB plans to execute more caution in the rest of the tightening cycle caused brief market embarrassment sending EURUSD to 1.08 and below, but later, as expected, bearish mood proved to be transitory. The dollar index, following a week of consolidation, traded below 102 points on signals of the growing slack in the US economy.Dollar sentiment began to deteriorate yesterday after release of the Empire State manufacturing index. The headline reading plunged to -32.9 points vs. -9 points forecast, indicating a significant decline in business activity in the sector. The auction of 3- and 6-month Treasuries showed strong demand yesterday, indicating investors' preference to buy more fixed income in anticipation of weakening activity in the US, which should obviously be reflected in softer inflation figures.The greenback buyers who bet on a rebound after consolidation faced strong headwinds after the release of the key for this week US eco reports. The US retail sales report and PPI released today were noticeably worse than expected:Basically, dovish surprise in key consumption component and business activity prompted quick revision of the US inflation forecast towards a faster decline and less hawkish Fed in 2023. The market reaction was clear: sell the dollar and bid stocks and bonds. As mentioned earlier, the dollar index fell below 102 points, while the US futures posted a moderate increase within 0.5%. A significant reaction was observed in Treasuries - the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 3.45%, and two-year - to 4.08%. EURUSD broke through 1.0850 and the breakout of 1.09 is next, followed by a move towards 1.10, where the main resistance is expected:Yesterday was a day of controversial headlines for the euro. In a lengthy interview with the Financial Times, Chief Economist Philip Lane provided detailed arguments in support of the ECB's recent hawkish rhetoric. Later in the day, however, a Bloomberg report quoted some ECB officials as saying that members of the Governing Council were actually considering a slower tightening (25bps). On this news, EUR/USD fell below 1.08, but today's data on the US formed the counterbalance and the pair quickly recovered.This morning data on the consumer price index for December were published in the UK, which generally coincided with the consensus forecasts. Headline inflation fell from 10.7% to 10.5%, while core inflation remained at 6.3%. The peak appears to be behind us and the headline inflation in the UK could return to 6% in the summer and 3.5-4% by the end of the year.It is important to note that the rise in prices for core services accelerated from 6.4% to 6.8%, which the Bank of England should especially take into account, and when added to yesterday's wage data, the balance of risks should shift upward to a possible 50 bp tightening in February.The EUR/GBP pair returned to pre-Christmas levels below 0.8800 thanks to some peculiar lagging of the euro and support of the pound. As discussed above, ECB-related euro weakness may not last long and EUR/GBP may struggle to trade sustainably below 0.8800 for now, also given the absence of strong bullish forces in the pound.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dovish-surprise-in-us-retail-sales-leaves-little-to-salvage-dollar-bulls"
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ONS: House prices up 10.3% in November

Official data shows house prices went up in November 2022, but a slowdown is still on thee cards

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UK inflation slows to 10.5%

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the decrease was largely due to falling fuel prices

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Gold at $5,700? I like the sound of that

Dominic Frisby explains why the gold price could be set up for a major rally as sentiment towards the yellow metal shifts.

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Market Spotlight: Low Bar Set for Today's US PPI & Retail Sales

Key US Data Up NextToday sees a double whammy for US data with both December PPI and Retail Sales due. On the back of weaker-than-forecast US inflation, today’s data is drawing more attention-than-usual. USD has been in decline since those Dec CPI figures were released with traders now anticipating a further pivot from the Fed when it meets in a fortnight’s time. The clear winner from this recent shift in Fed expectations has been the equities sector with stock indices broadly higher as traders look towards a smaller Fed hike in Feb. With this in mind, today’s data will be closely watched by traders and has the potential to drive meaningful action in both USD and equities alike.Low Expectations for Today’s DataTypically, better-than-forecast PPI and Retail Sales would help lift USD given PPI’s importance for gauging inflationary trends and Retail Sales’ importance for calculating GDP. With both readings expected to have weakened further on the prior month, the bar is set quite low today for an upside surprise. However, whether such results would fuel a USD rally is a little less certain.Trading ScenariosThe main story currently is the drop in inflation and so it would likely take a large upside shock today to derail expectations for a smaller Fed hike next month. Similarly, if PPI is confirmed to have weakened further, especially if below forecasts, this would likely see USD lower on the back of the release with stocks rallying.Technical ViewsNASDAQThe rally in the Nasdaq so far this year has seen price moving sharply higher off the 10700.41 lows. Price has now broken back into the bull channel off last year’s lows and is currently testing the 11540.72 level. This is a key level, with the long-term bear trend line sitting just above. If bulls can break above here, focus will be on a move up towards 12220.22 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-low-bar-set-for-today-s-us-ppi-and-retail-sales"
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Market Spotlight: GS Shares Plunge As Q4 Results Worst in Decade

GS Shares Tank on Q4 ResultsShares in Goldman Sachs are on the backfoot today following heavy losses yesterday amidst a weaker-than-expected set of Q4 earnings. On the back of solid results from JPM and Citi last week, investors were hoping for a similar display from Goldman. However, with EPS coming in at $3.32 vs $5.56 expected on revenues of $10.59 billion vs $10.75 billion expected, shares were seen shedding 6% over the session and are back under pressure ahead of the open today.Worst in Decade The bank’s Q4 results transpired to be its worst quarterly performance in over a decade with profits seen falling by two-thirds on the prior year. Notably, expenses were seen higher by 11% which, along with the tumble in overall revenues, partially explains the dismal performance. Looking ahead, the recent layoffs at Goldman look likely to be repeated as the company seeks to trim back costs. More worrying still is the almost $1billion bad-loans provision the company built up, compared with under $400 million last year. The bank cited “early signs of consumer credit deterioration” as the driver behind this move.Looking at the breakdown of the bank’s businesses; investment banking saw revenues drop by a massive 48% while asset and wealth management revenues fell by 27%. Looking ahead, Goldman CEO David Solomon said the bank will focus on “realizing the benefits of our strategic realignment which will strengthen our core businesses, scale our growth platforms and improve efficiency.”Technical ViewsGSThe reversal from earlier highs in the week now risks creating a lower peak against the November 2022 highs. If price breaks through the rising trend line and the recent 2023 lows, this will open the way for a deeper run down towards the 324.85 level next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-gs-shares-plunge-as-q4-results-worst-in-decade"
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JPY Sinks As BOJ Sticks To Bond Purchases

BOJ Holds SteadyTraders were treated to some late New Year fireworks overnight as the Japanese Yen collapsed across the board in reaction to the latest BOJ meeting. Ahead of the January monetary policy meeting, traders had been increasingly expectant that the BOJ would signal a shift in policy. With the bank having recently lifted the upper limit on its yield curve control target band, many took this as a pre-cursor to a more concrete move to be announced at the meeting. Consequently, JGB yields were seen pushed above that upper limit for three consecutive days into the meeting.Implied Volatility Hit Record HighsIt’s fair to say that expectations were split however. Implied volatility in the options market ahead of the event hit its highest level in JPY since November 2008 (GFC).  In terms of trading ranges, options traders were broadly favouring a 2% move in either direction. Ultimately, JPY bulls were left empty handed as the BOJ stuck to its ultra-loose easing policy.Bond Purchases to ContinueWhile refraining from any hawkish policy shifts, the BOJ surprised by announcing that it will press ahead with large-scale bond purchases and will now be more flexible around duration e.g, running the operation for longer. Additionally, the BOJ was seen unveiling a new tool as it adjusted rules around its funds-supply market operation meaning it can now be used to help suppress yields, bolstering its yield-curve control operations.Traders had been anticipating that BOJ governor Kuroda might look to lay the groundwork for a shift away from the bank’s ultra-loose policy ahead of his departure in April. However, on the back of this announcement, this now looks highly unlikely. With inflation now running at a 40-year high, however, the case for tightening is growing and critics warn that continued easing will only make the situation worse in Japan.Market ReactionJPY was seen lower across the board on Wednesday. Losing almost 3% against USD, GBP and EUR. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks roared back into action with the Nikkei surging higher by almost 3% also. The key now will be to see whether the current reaction reverses or whether JPY settles into trading lower again. If USD data today sees risk assets trading higher into the end of the week, this may well keep JPY pressured lower for now on weaker safe-haven demand.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe rally off the 126.93 lows has stalled for now into a retest of the broken 131.36 level and the bear channel top. Price has been moving steadily lower within this bear channel and while the structure holds, the focus is on a further move lower. A break of 131.36, however, opens the way for a bigger push back towards 139.33.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/jpy-sinks-as-boj-sticks-to-bond-purchases"
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Upbeat China Data may Unlock more Upside in Euro and other Pro-Cyclical Currencies

The unexpected rebound of the Chinese economy as seen in the latest batch of Chinese data reinforced the idea that a hidden China economic momentum will unlock the upside in pro-cyclical currencies, including the euro. The decline in natural gas prices pushes the idea of an energy crisis deep to the sidelines causing revisions of growth prospects of energy importers to the upside. Today the market’s focus is on the UK employment data, German ZEW index, Canadian CPI and the US Empire State manufacturing index.China statistics for December and 4Q 2022 made somewhat displaced market fears that the coronavirus restrictions left a scar on the body of the economy that will greatly hamper its recovery. GDP expanded by 2.9% in the fourth quarter (forecast 1.8%) while industrial production grew by 1.3% (forecast 0.2%) in December. The market missed the mark greatly in the retail sales growth forecast - the decline was just 1.8%, compared to the forecast of -8.6%. December data confirms the suggestion that, despite the increase in cases, the mobility story positively dominates China's consumer demand story.However, the release of Chinese data did not trigger any subsequent buying of the yuan or Asian currencies. This response could be attributed to the lull before the Chinese New Year starting next week and risk aversion before the BOJ meeting tomorrow. The dollar remains broadly stable, moving in the 102-102.50 range in DXY. Tomorrow during the Asian session, a downside breakout could occur if the BOJ changes its 10-year JGB yield target again.Growing signs of a slowdown in US price pressures, weakening business indicators, an improved demand outlook in China, and reduced risks of an energy crisis have all combined to reduce the huge imbalance between the growth outlooks of the US economy and its opponents that was a major investment thesis in 2022. EURUSD is clearly looking for an opportunity to break to new local highs, buyers' interest in the pair remains high. The target 1.10 for EURUSD remains relevant given that we saw a decent USD consolidation after the steep decline.The UK employment data and the ZEW business sentiment report pleased European currency buyers as they showed surprises on the upside. The ZEW sentiment index diverged especially strongly from the forecasts: despite expectations of a negative print, it entered a positive area for the first time in many months:The Bloomberg report that the ECB will follow the Fed's example and slow down the pace of rate hikes to 25bp in March caused some volatility in EURUSD and stripped somewhat of the near-term bullish momentum. However, the impact of this news is likely to be short-lived and the pair will soon resume its upward movement, as the dominant idea in the market remains the alignment of yield outlook in the US and outside of America. The Bank of Canada (BoC) looks set to face an increase or no increase dilemma at its policy meeting next week (January 25). Signs of a slowdown in economic activity were included in the latest statement from the Bank of Canada and were clear in yesterday's Bank of Canada Business Outlook, where the index of future sales fell to its lowest level since the pandemic, and most of the firms surveyed said they expected a recession in Canada. However, employment figures in the December report turned out to be very strong, and high full-time hiring kept the unemployment rate at cyclical lows.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/upbeat-china-data-may-unlock-more-upside-in-euro-and-other-pro-cyclical-currencies"
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Is now a good time to buy a house?

Is now a good time to buy a house? That’s something many people might be asking as house prices start to show their first monthly decline since July 2021.

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The top ten dividend stocks in the FTSE 250

The average FTSE 250 dividend yield is around 4%, but many stocks yield much more. Rupert Hargreaves picks the best FTSE 250 stocks for income investors to buy.

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Wages jump - could interest rates rise faster?

Wage growth is running at its highest level since records began, which could lead the Bank of England to hike interest rates more aggressively to put the brakes on inflation.

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Market Spotlight: Shifting Fed View Drives Bitcoin Bounce

BTC Rebound UnderwayFollowing heavy losses over 2022, Bitcoin is starting the year in a much more encouraging manner. The leading crypto asset has recorded a roughly 30% rally over initial 2023 trading, taking price back up to levels last seen in September 2022. The main driver behind the move appears to be the shift in expectations regarding the pace and duration of US rate hike. With US inflation continuing to cool sharply, traders are anticipating a further slowing of Fed rate hikes from next month. Additionally, looking out across the year there is a growing view that should inflation continue to fall at the current pace, the Fed will likely halt its tightening operations ahead of current projections.This peak inflation narrative is key for crypto as ballooning inflation last year, and the subsequent wave of central bank tightening, was the chief architect of the demise of crypto in 2022. If the US continues to decline in coming months and the Fed does indeed further slow the pace of tightening, this should pave the way for a continued rebound in BTC and the broader crypto-world alike.Technical ViewsBTCThe rally in BTC this year has seen the market breaking above the bearish trend line and above two key resistance levels. With momentum studies now firmly bullish, the focus is on a continued push higher while price holds above the 20575 level with 22600 the next upside target for bulls. To the downside, any move below 20575 will see 18545 come into play as the next support to note.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-shifting-fed-view-drives-bitcoin-bounce"
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Technical Trade Set Ups for EURAUD, USDJPY & Crude Oil

Technical Trade Set Ups for EURAUD, USDJPY & Crude Oil

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/technical-trade-set-ups-for-euraud-usdjpy-and-crude-oil"
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