Market Spotlight: Is Bitcoin Beginning A Fresh Bull Run?

Risk Markets Holding Up Ahead of FedDespite some nervousness in markets on the back of a gloomy outlook from Intel yesterday, tech assets appear to be holding up today ahead of the US open. Indeed, despite some intra-day volatility yesterday, the NASDAQ rebounded to end the day higher. Looking across the risk markets, crypt assets are also performing well this week with Bitcoin consolidating at highs following a solid rally over 2023 so far. With price holding above the 22600 level, the clear focus now is the FOMC next week.Bitcoin Outlook ImprovingThe Fed’s tightening program across 2022 sent Bitcoin plummeting from record highs. However, with the outlook for the Fed and US rates having shifted materially in recent months, the market is now finding fresh demand and traders are questioning whether BTC is at the start of a fresh bull phase.FOMC In FocusLooking ahead to next week’s FOMC meeting, the battle lines are clearly drawn. If the Fed sticks to a further .5% hike and signals the need to keep pressing ahead with tightening into 2024, striking a more cautious tone over inflation, USD is likely to rebound sharply, sending BTC lower once again. However, if the Fed pivots again towards a smaller .25% (now base case scenario), this will pave the way for a lower USD and higher prices for BTC. The main focus will then be on the Fed’s outlook. If the Fed is seen sounding more optimistic about inflation and opens the door to potentially bringing forward the end of its tightening program (as we just saw from the BOC), this should send USD sharply lower, driving BTC higher near-term.Technical ViewsBTCThe rally in BTC this year has seen the market blowing through several key technical levels. More recently, price has broken above the 22600 level and is currently sitting atop the level as support. While above here, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards 24930 next. This will be a major test for the market with a break there likely to encourage plenty of fresh buying interest.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-is-bitcoin-beginning-a-fresh-bull-run"
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How to invest in gold

Gold can be a good way to diversify your investments and help during difficult markets. We look at how to get started with the precious metal.

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US Data Surprises Helps the USD to Stage Mini-Rebound

Currency markets continue to remain in a relative equilibrium with FX majors fluctuating in fairly narrow ranges. US broad equity indices also lack direction, the key benchmark of the market, S&P 500, after two mini-selloffs to 3900 and 3960 in January, remains tied to the level of 4000 points. Oil (WTI benchmark) has been rising since the beginning of the year, but so far without serious prospects, facing strong resistance in the area of 82-82.5 dollars per barrel.The macro picture of the market suggests that investors are clearly waiting for the easing of the Fed's stance in the first quarter of 2023 in response to slowing inflation and somewhat deteriorating activity data, but there is doubt on whether the reaction will be adequate to the risks that have arisen. On the one hand, if the Fed gets worried and signals a quick end to the tightening cycle, risk assets will continue to rise, and the dollar will go to new lows. On the other hand, if fears of an “inflation comeback” and confidence that the economy is strong enough among the policymakers, markets will likely price in the Fed’s policy error that will accelerate the onset of recession, what will clearly be risk-negative event. Hence the absence of pronounced trends in the market, since it is not clear what the Fed will put at the forefront in this situation. This uncertainty will likely be the key near-term trading theme until the middle of next week, when the Fed will hold a meeting on monetary policy.Thursday's economic calendar contained some interesting surprises, including an unexpected strong growth in January in US durable goods orders (5.6% YoY growth, 2.5% forecast) and fourth-quarter GDP (2.9% QoQ, 2.6% forecast). Employment in the US continues to inspire calm, initial applications rose by 186K against the forecast of 205K. Slightly higher than the forecast were long-term claims for unemployment benefits - 1.675 million, the forecast was 1.659 million:Despite waves of sales, the dollar index is offered a quite solid support at 101.50. It is worth noting that the buyers' confidence in the dollar's rebound is falling, which can be seen from the gradual decrease in the amplitude of upward corrections in January, which forms the “triangle” pattern. This figure in a downtrend is often interpreted as a trend continuation pattern:Today's data helped the USD to stage a mini-rebound that reflects reducing bets on a dovish outcome of the Fed meeting in February. However, the dollar index is unlikely to move into an uptrend now: bullish momentum can definitely lead to a breakout of the level of 102 with an upside correction to 102.2-102.3, however, the market is unlikely to take medium-term direction before the FOMC meeting outcome. A short-term tactic in this situation may be to short EUR, GBP and USDJPY with positions covered closer to the middle of next week.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us-data-surprises-helps-the-usd-to-stage-mini-rebound"
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Almost 1.5 million more people will be dragged into higher tax bands by 2027

Frozen income tax allowances mean considerably more people will have to start paying higher-rate and additional-rate tax. We explain what you can do to avoid the fiscal drag.

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Market Spotlight: Trading Today's Adv Q4 US GDP

US GDP Up NextLooking ahead to today’s US session, the key events will be the release of advanced US GDP for Q4. The data is drawing a great deal of attention ahead of the first FOMC meeting of the year next week and should we see any surprise in the release, volatility can be expected across financial markets today.In terms of numbers, the market is looking for GDP growth of 2.6%. While down from the prior month’s 3. 2% reading, a print in this region should be relatively encouraging for risk sentiment. Such a reading would be broadly in line with the view that the US is at risk of a mild recession later this year. If data is in line with forecasts, movement is likely to be limited with traders instead preferring to wait for the Fed next week.Trading ScenariosHowever, if we see any upside surprise, this will likely be taken as a very encouraging sign by stock traders, helping lift risk sentiment across the board. The Fed is widely expected to opt for a slower pace of tightening next week and so a higher USD looks unlikely to be the outcome. However, should data surprise to the downside, we can expect USD to strengthen via safe-haven demand with stocks likely to be lower across the board.Technical ViewsNASDAQFor now, the index is holding above the 11540.72 level, underpinned by the bull channel support. The market is testing above the bear trend line form last year’s highs and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above 11540.72. To the topside, 12220.22 is the next hurdle for bulls with a break there opening the way for a higher move towards 12875.84 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-today-s-adv-q4-us-gdp"
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How to check your council tax band

With council tax bill set to rise this year by an average 5%, make sure you’re not paying any more than you have to by checking you’re in the right council tax band.

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Daily Market Outlook, January 26, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 26, 2023 Asian Markets Back Online & In Buoyant Spirits With Hong Kong Scaling 7 Month HighsAsian markets are trading with a mixed tone, the standout exception is the Hong Kong market which has opened with a strong risk on posture, as the Hang Seng printed fresh seven month highs. The handover from Wall Street was mixed, however all the major indices staged significant intraday reversals from lows to close broadly unchanged on the session, overnight Tesla earnings provided support for bulls as earnings and revenues topped estimates, although margins contracted, Tesla shares were seen up 5.5% in post market trade. With no econ data of note for European trading, investor focus shifts to the US session, where US Q4 GDP is set to be released this afternoon. Markets expect the print to confirm a second successive quarter of growth reversing declines witnessed in the first half of 2022, softness seen in some December inputs suggests that growth may be lower than previously expected, however, growth is expected to confirm a 2.2-2.6% annualised uptick quarter over quarter. The Fed is deemed to still view this as a hotter than wanted levels of activity, the policy response to this level of growth will likely see the FOMC maintain a cautious tone at the Feb 1 meeting, with markets fully pricing a 0.25bps move, any upside surprise to the data would like see markets rapidly repricing a 50bps move, the data comes during the Fed black out period so markets wont get any response from Fed officials. Other US data of note comes in the form of weekly jobless claims, expected show a small uptick, signalling slight softness in the employment outlook, another round of housing data is expected to confirm continued pressure in the sector with new homes sales believed to cool further in December dropping from 640k to 617kMarkets-wise, European bourses have opened on the front foot, buoyed by Tesla earnings and the upbeat outlook provided by Tesla CEO Musk, robust earnings out of STMicroelectronics were well received,  helping cement the constructive opening to European trade with the FTSE & Eurostoxx in the green. US equity futures are also in positive territory as the Dollar remains pressured below the 102 level, supporting EUR and GBP. Crude continues to cling to the $80 handle with Gold closing on the 1950 target.Overnight News of NoteBitcoin Tops $23.7K In Wednesday Comeback - CoinDeskAsian Shares Scale Fresh 7-Month High As Hong Kong Trade ResumesChina Stocks Rally In Hong Kong As Holiday Spending RecoversBoJ Policymakers Divided On Wage, Inflation Outlook, Jan Opinions ShowsFear of BOJ Turning Hawkish Spurs 94% Jump In Shorter Bond SalesUS Economic Growth Set To Have Slowed In Fourth Quarter Of 2022Housing Demand Climbs As US Market Starts To Show Signs Of LifeUS And Germany To Send Main Battle Tanks To UkraineBoC’s Macklem Says He Is 'Not Even Thinking' Of Cutting RatesUK Business Confidence Drops To Lowest Since Financial CrisisDollar Near Eight-Month Low Ahead Of Central Bank MeetingsOil Edges Higher On Outlook For Chinese Demand And Weaker DollarChevron To Buy Back $75 Billion In Stock After Record ProfitsTesla Seeks To Boost Output Quickly As Profit Beats EstimatesIBM To Cut About 3,900 Workers, Still Hiring In ‘Higher Growth’ AreasDOT Probes Southwest Airlines Scheduling After Holiday-Travel MeltdownChina Stocks Rally In Hong Kong As Holiday Spending Recovers(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)USDJPY 130.00USDCHF .9795Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 3985Primary support is 3885Primary objective is 4065Below 3840 opens 380020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0835Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2340Primary support  is 1.2180Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2150  opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7060Primary support is .6950Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22500Primary support 20300Primary objective is 25000Below 20200 opens 1940020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-26-2023"
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Fan heater vs oil heater – which is cheaper?

Sales of portable heaters have soared, as households look to cut their energy costs. But which is better: a fan heater or an oil heater? We put them to the test to see which one comes out cheaper.

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The State Pension triple lock is doomed to fail

The State Pension triple lock guarantees an increase in the state pension every year, but this assumes government income grows every year as well, which it doesn't. That will lead to problems.

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What are the UK’s most expensive postcodes to buy a house in?

Data from estate agent comparison site GetAgent reveals the UK’s priciest and cheapest postcodes to buy a property in

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Ignore the doomsayers - things are looking bright for the bulls

Everywhere you look there seems to be bad news, but if past trends are anything to go by, 2023 could be a bumper year for equity returns says Dominic Frisby

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Market Spotlight: Tesla Earnings in Focus Today

Tesla Up NextAs US earnings season rolls on, focus today lands on Elon Musk and Tesla. On the back of Musk’s eventual takeover of Twitter, and all the controversy surrounding it, traders are keen to see how Musk’s primary business performed over the period. On the numbers front, Wall Street is looking for an EPS of $1.12 on revenues of $24.66 billion. This would mark a firm increase on the prior quarter and the eighth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for Tesla.Musk in Court Musk is currently on trial facing charges of fraud over a tweet put out in 2018 where Musk claimed he had enough funding to take Tesla private. Shares in Tesla surged on the back of the communication form Musk only to reverse sharply weeks later when Musk said ‘the deal’ was no longer going ahead. This is the latest controversy for Musk who was recently forced to make good on his takeover bid for Twitter to avoid further legal action.Improving 2023 Outlook Still, ahead of the group’s Q4 earnings today, analyst expectations for Tesla are firmly bullish. The negative factors which have weighed on the company over the last six months have been thoroughly reflected in price and now with the US interest rate outlook shifting materially and China reopening, the outlook for 2023 has improved considerably which makes Tesla a good candidate for a buy and hold through the year. Tesla has slashed vehicle prices recently on two key models which should help feed into better demand this year while the company will also benefit from reductions in prices of key commodities used in its manufacturing process.Technical ViewsTeslaThe decline in Tesla from summer 2022 highs has been framed by a clearly mapped bear channel. However, after stalling into a test of support at 108.24, Tesla shares have since turned higher and are now attempting to break out above the bear channel. The key level to watch will be the 170.22 region, a break of which will turn the near-term outlook firmly bullish with 207.71 the next target for bulls.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-earnings-in-focus-today"
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Aussie Soars As CPI Hits 33-year Highs

Q4 Inflation Spikes HigherThe Australian Dollar is seeing a flood of demand today on the back of the latest CPI figures, released overnight. Aussie inflation was seen spiking back up to 1.9%, quarter-on-quarter, up from 1.8% prior and above the 1.6% the market was looking for. The year-on-year figure was seen rising back up to 8.4%, a more than 1% jump from the prior 7.3% reading. The Q4 inflation reading marked its highest level since January 1980, driven by increases in transport costs, food prices and new dwelling construction costs.RBA ConcernsIn all, these inflation readings paint a worrying picture for the RBA. On the monthly figure, after flattening out for two months, prices have started to lift again. While there are certain factors recently which might have contributed to a temporary spike in inflation (bad weather, supply issues), the quarterly reading is worrying and suggests that the RBA still has further to go with its tightening program. The bank was among the first to pivot on rates last year and there is some concern now that the bank might have slowed the pace of tightening too early and will now need to play catch up to bring inflation down again.Holiday Costs See Big JumpLooking at the breakdown of the data there are some interesting points indeed. Holiday prices, which spike 11% on the prior month in December 2021 were seen spiking 27% in December 2022. Recreation costs were also seen jumping more than 10% on the prior month. These marked the two biggest cost increases. Given that December is a key holiday time in Australia, there is some credence to viewing these increases as transitory cost jumps which will likely flatten out now.AUD Well Bid Following DataHowever, the market reaction is key here. Aussie government bond yields have spiked on the back of the release. AUD too has been higher across the board, reflecting traders’ expectations that the RBA will either push ahead with a larger hike at the February meeting or signal that its tightening program will need to run longer than forecast. In both cases, AUD looks likely to remain well supported moving forward as the market re-prices the Aussie rate-path for the year ahead.Technical ViewsAUDUSDThe recent retest of the .6857 level has seen the Aussie turning higher again with price now having broken through initial 2023 highs to test the .7130 level. With momentum studies firmly bullish here and with the retail market heavily short, AUDUSD has room to move up to .7287 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/aussie-soars-as-cpi-hits-33-year-highs"
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Weak UK PMI data points to further Pound weakness

Incoming data on the EU economy roughly correspond to the thesis put forward by the market that the EU bloc will be able to dodge a recession. The PMI index from S&P Global climbed into the positive zone in January, amounting to 50.2 points against the forecast of 49.8 points. Positive MoM dynamics are being observed for the first time since June last year.A number of factors contributed to the optimism, from a faster slowdown in inflation and improved supply chains to mild weather that helped the EU avoid an energy crisis.Activity indices in the EU's two largest economies, France and Germany, remained at levels below 50 points, but there was a surprising improvement in the service sector in Germany and in the manufacturing sector in France.The ECB has already raised rates by 2.5% and is expected to make another 50bp hike next week. What happens after is unclear: some Governing Council officials suggest it may be appropriate to slow down the pace of tightening, others continue to insist on the need for significant increases. The hawkish ECB case in 2023 finds its justification mainly in a strong labor market: employment continued to rise in December, supporting high wage growth, which usually generates the lion's share of domestic inflation.Unlike the EU, the situation in the UK is less rosy. The S&P Global PMI index for the British economy dived deeper into the recession zone, to 47.8 points in January against 49 points in December. This means that the rate of deterioration in activity has been accelerating this month:The negative momentum prevailed in the services sector, but manufacturers also reported that output declined in January at the fastest pace since the start of the pandemic. The pound fell by 0.6% after the release of the index for January. Market participants are beginning to price in the idea that the BoE will be forced to delay the moment for the tightening cycle. Traders are looking for another 50 bp hike, according to the current valuation in February and by 25 bp in March. Additional pressure on the pound was also exerted by the publication of data on the UK budget deficit. It swelled by £27.4bn from a forecast of £17.3bn, an outcome that calls into question fiscal stimulus hopes, raising the risk of a UK recession in 2023.From a technical point of view, GBPUSD has broken through the lower limit of the short-term range of 1.231 - 1.23, and now the next sellers' target is likely to be 1.2250. In the event that the price encounters weak resistance, there will be no potential bounce to 1.23 (which will already be a resistance zone) and the price will continue to move towards the main support at 1.22, as shown in the chart below:

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/weak-uk-pmi-data-points-to-further-pound-weakness"
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