Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise is Still Ahead

Bitcoin is pulling back from the level of 22500, therefore the bulls keep on pushing the coin till the resistance level of 25000. The asset is likely to head up and possibly retest the level of 22500 soon. So, let’s observe what will happen this week.American stock index S&P 500 has touched a very important weekly downtrend. Last week the index was below this downtrend. Now, the asset’s price is trying to pull back and drop. However, it would be wise to check the candlestick formations to figure out the asset’s moves. The index might also break the downtrend and jump.Oil has pulled from the broken downtrend and the horizontal level of 86.00. Oil might potentially jump and hit the level of 100 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-is-still-ahead"
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AUDUSD. H4 | bullish opportunity

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analystAUDUSD, H4 | Potential to swing high TypeBullish ReversalPreference:We're seeing price test a key overlap support at 0.70624. There's a chance price might reverse from here to push prices all the way down to 1st resistance at 0.71322. The 1st support at 0.68722.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-bullish-opportunity"
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Self-assessment tax returns: what you need to know about getting your tax bill right

Understanding how self assessment works can help you ensure you pay the right amount of tax, as well as avoid penalties for missing the deadline.

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Renting a slice of heaven on Moorea

Chris Carter heads to French Polynesia in search of his own private paradise

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Preview of the Fed Meeting: Finding a Balance is a Tough Task

Last year the Fed pursued the most aggressive monetary policy in many years, but in December 2022, officials began laying the groundwork for reducing the pace of tightening to standard 25 bp hike. There are signs that the US expansion is losing momentum while risks of sharper inflation easing gradually build up which contribute to an increasingly dovish market bias regarding the Fed actions in 2023, including rate cuts.After raising fed funds rate by a total of 4.25% in 2022, which consisted of a series of 75bp and 50bp hikes, the Fed hinted in December that the tightening episode may be coming to an end. The market in response revised the peak Fed rate from 5% to 4.75%. While inflation is still well above its 2% target and unemployment near historic lows, evidence is accumulating at the Fed that policy transmission (i.e., effects of monetary tightening) is becoming more significant and therefore the risks of policy overshooting are rising. This can be seen primarily in the real estate market, where mortgage rates reacted quite quickly, limiting mortgage demand, and thereby putting pressure on prices:As a result, rental rates began to creep down, albeit with some delay. This delayed effect is expected to be fully felt by mid-2023, which creates risks of a faster than expected decline in the Core PCE index, the main inflation metric for the Fed. Against the backdrop of these fears, the "sensitivity" of market participants to a potential error in the Fed's policy has increased, and asset prices may be inclined to overreact even to slightly hawkish policy hints. An excessively dovish line, in turn, can also turn into trouble - the market may perceive this as an imminent transition to lower rates, which in turn may cause unwanted easing of credit conditions, which will only further spin the inflation flywheel.The economic data for the US, published on Friday, did not contain big surprises, Core PCE in December rose by 4.4% (in line with the forecast), consumer spending decreased in monthly terms slightly more than expected - by 0.2%. The dollar index continues to move in a narrowing triangle, trying to find a balance near the level of 102:It is clear that the US currency will likely pick direction after the Fed meeting, given that the sloping triangle in the bearish trend is a breakout figure, a bottom-up breakdown of the level of 101.50 is more likely to mean that the next market target is a round level of 100 points.The data shows that the EURUSD's six-hour reaction to last year's decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) caused a movement within +/- 0.7%. And the currency options market prices in a 90-pip range for the EURUSD pair over the period covering the Fed and ECB meetings next week.The decision of the Bank of Canada to stop the tightening cycle at the level of 4.50% made an interesting impression on the dollar market - the US currency was also sold based on the fact that global central banks tend to synchronize their policy, that is, as a signal that the Fed might be preparing to complete the tightening.This suggests that the FOMC meeting may be more interesting for EURUSD than the market currently expects. The base case assumes that EURUSD continues to trade around 1.08/1.09 ahead of the FOMC meeting. Any suggestion that the Fed has all but stopped the tightening could see the EURUSD move to 1.10. However, the signal from the Fed that the potential for a 50 bp rate change persists, will most likely send the EURUSD to the 1.07 level.More broadly, EURUSD is likely to continue rising this year – possibly to 1.15 in the second quarter – this will be a time when US inflation reports will likely contain more downside surprises and China’s “restart” will be a tailwind for cyclical currencies, including the Euro.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/preview-of-the-fed-meeting-finding-a-balance-is-a-tough-task"
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The High Income Child Benefit Charge - is it the most illogical, unfair and unnecessary tax?

We may not like taxes, but this one is blatantly unfair, penalises middle income earners and adds to the gender pensions gap, says Kalpana Fitzpatrick.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605663/high-income-child-benefit-charge-tax
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Which house-price index is the best?

Britain is obsessed with house prices, and we have at least four house-price indices to choose from to measure the rate of increase in the value of our properties. But how do they differ, and which is the best?

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Market Spotlight: Tesla & US Core PCE

Risk Rallies on GDP Beat – PCE Up NextOn the back of better-than-forecast advanced Q4 GDP yesterday, traders are now looking to today’s US core PCE data to provide the final insight ahead of the FOMC next week. Given that the PCE data is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, over CPI, the data is always a key release for traders to monitor. With the market now looking to anticipate future Fed action, this month’s result will be even more closely watched.Downside Data RisksAt this point, a .25% hike looks to be a done deal with today’s data unlikely to show any surprise upside. Indeed, on the back of the recent declines in inflation we’ve seen, risks are skewed to the downside and should we see any print below market forecasts this will likely see risk assets firmly higher into the weekend with USD likely to come off.Tesla In FocusIn the US, stocks have been boosted on the back of yesterday’s GDP data, shrugging off disappointing results from Microsoft and Intel over the week. Instead, record profits from Tesla and the accompanying spike in its share price have become more important to the lower Fed rates narrative. With this in mind, Tesla stock looks well positioned to move higher should today’s data confirm a further slowdown in PCE.Technical ViewsTESLAThe rally off the lows has seen Tesla shares breaking above the bear channel from last year’s highs. Price is now fast approaching a test of the 170.22 level. This will be the first major resistance the current rally has encountered. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher near-term with 207.71 the next level to watch above this.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-and-us-core-pce"
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Market Spotlight: Is Bitcoin Beginning A Fresh Bull Run?

Risk Markets Holding Up Ahead of FedDespite some nervousness in markets on the back of a gloomy outlook from Intel yesterday, tech assets appear to be holding up today ahead of the US open. Indeed, despite some intra-day volatility yesterday, the NASDAQ rebounded to end the day higher. Looking across the risk markets, crypt assets are also performing well this week with Bitcoin consolidating at highs following a solid rally over 2023 so far. With price holding above the 22600 level, the clear focus now is the FOMC next week.Bitcoin Outlook ImprovingThe Fed’s tightening program across 2022 sent Bitcoin plummeting from record highs. However, with the outlook for the Fed and US rates having shifted materially in recent months, the market is now finding fresh demand and traders are questioning whether BTC is at the start of a fresh bull phase.FOMC In FocusLooking ahead to next week’s FOMC meeting, the battle lines are clearly drawn. If the Fed sticks to a further .5% hike and signals the need to keep pressing ahead with tightening into 2024, striking a more cautious tone over inflation, USD is likely to rebound sharply, sending BTC lower once again. However, if the Fed pivots again towards a smaller .25% (now base case scenario), this will pave the way for a lower USD and higher prices for BTC. The main focus will then be on the Fed’s outlook. If the Fed is seen sounding more optimistic about inflation and opens the door to potentially bringing forward the end of its tightening program (as we just saw from the BOC), this should send USD sharply lower, driving BTC higher near-term.Technical ViewsBTCThe rally in BTC this year has seen the market blowing through several key technical levels. More recently, price has broken above the 22600 level and is currently sitting atop the level as support. While above here, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher towards 24930 next. This will be a major test for the market with a break there likely to encourage plenty of fresh buying interest.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-is-bitcoin-beginning-a-fresh-bull-run"
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How to invest in gold

Gold can be a good way to diversify your investments and help during difficult markets. We look at how to get started with the precious metal.

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US Data Surprises Helps the USD to Stage Mini-Rebound

Currency markets continue to remain in a relative equilibrium with FX majors fluctuating in fairly narrow ranges. US broad equity indices also lack direction, the key benchmark of the market, S&P 500, after two mini-selloffs to 3900 and 3960 in January, remains tied to the level of 4000 points. Oil (WTI benchmark) has been rising since the beginning of the year, but so far without serious prospects, facing strong resistance in the area of 82-82.5 dollars per barrel.The macro picture of the market suggests that investors are clearly waiting for the easing of the Fed's stance in the first quarter of 2023 in response to slowing inflation and somewhat deteriorating activity data, but there is doubt on whether the reaction will be adequate to the risks that have arisen. On the one hand, if the Fed gets worried and signals a quick end to the tightening cycle, risk assets will continue to rise, and the dollar will go to new lows. On the other hand, if fears of an “inflation comeback” and confidence that the economy is strong enough among the policymakers, markets will likely price in the Fed’s policy error that will accelerate the onset of recession, what will clearly be risk-negative event. Hence the absence of pronounced trends in the market, since it is not clear what the Fed will put at the forefront in this situation. This uncertainty will likely be the key near-term trading theme until the middle of next week, when the Fed will hold a meeting on monetary policy.Thursday's economic calendar contained some interesting surprises, including an unexpected strong growth in January in US durable goods orders (5.6% YoY growth, 2.5% forecast) and fourth-quarter GDP (2.9% QoQ, 2.6% forecast). Employment in the US continues to inspire calm, initial applications rose by 186K against the forecast of 205K. Slightly higher than the forecast were long-term claims for unemployment benefits - 1.675 million, the forecast was 1.659 million:Despite waves of sales, the dollar index is offered a quite solid support at 101.50. It is worth noting that the buyers' confidence in the dollar's rebound is falling, which can be seen from the gradual decrease in the amplitude of upward corrections in January, which forms the “triangle” pattern. This figure in a downtrend is often interpreted as a trend continuation pattern:Today's data helped the USD to stage a mini-rebound that reflects reducing bets on a dovish outcome of the Fed meeting in February. However, the dollar index is unlikely to move into an uptrend now: bullish momentum can definitely lead to a breakout of the level of 102 with an upside correction to 102.2-102.3, however, the market is unlikely to take medium-term direction before the FOMC meeting outcome. A short-term tactic in this situation may be to short EUR, GBP and USDJPY with positions covered closer to the middle of next week.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/us-data-surprises-helps-the-usd-to-stage-mini-rebound"
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Almost 1.5 million more people will be dragged into higher tax bands by 2027

Frozen income tax allowances mean considerably more people will have to start paying higher-rate and additional-rate tax. We explain what you can do to avoid the fiscal drag.

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Market Spotlight: Trading Today's Adv Q4 US GDP

US GDP Up NextLooking ahead to today’s US session, the key events will be the release of advanced US GDP for Q4. The data is drawing a great deal of attention ahead of the first FOMC meeting of the year next week and should we see any surprise in the release, volatility can be expected across financial markets today.In terms of numbers, the market is looking for GDP growth of 2.6%. While down from the prior month’s 3. 2% reading, a print in this region should be relatively encouraging for risk sentiment. Such a reading would be broadly in line with the view that the US is at risk of a mild recession later this year. If data is in line with forecasts, movement is likely to be limited with traders instead preferring to wait for the Fed next week.Trading ScenariosHowever, if we see any upside surprise, this will likely be taken as a very encouraging sign by stock traders, helping lift risk sentiment across the board. The Fed is widely expected to opt for a slower pace of tightening next week and so a higher USD looks unlikely to be the outcome. However, should data surprise to the downside, we can expect USD to strengthen via safe-haven demand with stocks likely to be lower across the board.Technical ViewsNASDAQFor now, the index is holding above the 11540.72 level, underpinned by the bull channel support. The market is testing above the bear trend line form last year’s highs and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above 11540.72. To the topside, 12220.22 is the next hurdle for bulls with a break there opening the way for a higher move towards 12875.84 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-trading-today-s-adv-q4-us-gdp"
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How to check your council tax band

With council tax bill set to rise this year by an average 5%, make sure you’re not paying any more than you have to by checking you’re in the right council tax band.

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