Top 10 areas most immune to a house price crash

New research pinpoints the towns, cities and London boroughs most insulated from house price falls this year - and which are the most exposed.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/investments/property/house-prices/605669/areas-most-immune-to-a-house-price-crash
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Fund platform launches low cost £4.99 a month service for small investors - we see how it compares

Aimed at investors with small investment pots of £30k or less, fund platform interactive investors has launched a low costs service - but is it any good and how does it compare to rivals?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/interactive-investor-launches-low-cost-platform
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Market Spotlight: Computacenter Shares Jump on Profit Guidance

Better 2022 Results Shares in UK listed Computacenter, Europe’s chief independent provider of IT infrastructure services, are up over 7% today. The move comes in response to updated from the company today with 2022 results now projected to be better than initially expected. Total revenues over last year were seen 30% above the company’s own forecasts for the period (gross invoices) with Computacenter citing the benefit of a stronger US Dollar as well as an acquisition made in H2 2022.The company noted strong demand from all markets for its technology sourcing products. Additionally, the group noted decent services revenues also though did note that its services margins were impacted by the unwinding of covid-related benefits as well as the dampening effects of elevated inflation.Reduced Covid Impact Looking ahead, however, the group is confident in delivering further strong results this year, noting negative covid-related issues have now passed through. Shares are now up more than 14% on the year and look set for further gains should the BOE this week begin to steer away from aggressive monetary tightening.Technical ViewsComputacenterThe rally has seen price breaking above the 2100 level and above the bearish trend line from last year’s highs. With momentum studies turning bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above the 2100 level. Above here, the next area to watch is the bull channel top and 2255 level (prior broken lows). A move above here will be firmly bullish for the stock medium-term.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-computacenter-shares-jump-on-profit-guidance"
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Precious Metals Monday 30-01-2023

Metals Rally Pauses For Now The metals complex is seeing a weaker opening on Monday with both gold and silver trading in the red as European markets open. Gold has enjoyed a strong start to the year ahead of the recent soft patch with gold futures rallying around 7% off the YTD lows, trading up to levels not seen since Q2 2022. With the US Dollar having started the year on a weak footing, the outlook for metals looks fairly clear; should USD continue lower, metals have room to break higher, any reversal higher in USD, metals are vulnerable to a reversal lower.With this in mind, the key focus for metals traders this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The central expectation is now for the Fed to pivot further via a smaller .25% rate increase. With the move well-expected, the bigger focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. If there is any indication that the Fed will be looking to pursue a slower pace of tightening, or even bring forward the likely end point/date of tightening, this will be firmly bullish for metals, with USD likely to come under heavy selling pressure. However, should the Fed surprise by either sticking to a .5% hike, or sticking with its hawkish outlook on rates (to end above 5%, to continue through 2023), this could well see metals coming off as USD rebounds.Technical ViewsGoldThe rally in gold prices, framed by the narrow bullish channel off last year’s lows, has stalled for now with price drooping back onto the 1916.34 level, which is holding as support. While this level holds, the focus is on a continuation higher with 1973. 51 the next key upside level to note. However, momentum studies are weakening here, raising risks of a reversal lower. Should price move back under current support, focus shifts to the channel lows and 1871.04 as the next key support area.SilverThe rally in silver prices off last year’s lows has seen the market stalled firmly into a test of the 24.0073 level. This area has capped price since early December and shows no signs of letting up yet. Despite the market having broken below the rising channel off last year’s lows, the fact that 24.0073 is acting like a magnet for price reflects pent up bullish pressure, keeping the focus on an eventual break higher.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/precious-metals-monday-30-01-2023"
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Daily Market Outlook, January 30, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 30, 2023 Central Bank Decisions To Dominate The Data Docket For the WeekAsian markets have started the week with a mixed tone as investors prepare for major central bank decisions from the US, Europe and the UK. The paring in risk appetite comes against a backdrop that has been broadly constructive for the opening month of the year, investors continue to pin their hopes on peak inflation having passed, focus now shifts to the global growth narrative and central bank policy. Chinese markets have returned from the Lunar New year holiday in somewhat soggy spirits nursing losses of just under 2% on the session.Ahead of the trifecta of central bank decisions later in the week, European investors will eye flash German GDP this morning, sentiment reads for the period imply positive inputs will provide a more upbeat number than the weaker Q4 data. Spain released CPI figures for January which came in hotter than expected 5.8% v 4.7% expected, providing further cover for hawkishness from the ECB. In the UK the Lloyds Business Barometer was released overnight, showing a more positive tone for business in January, printing a second consecutive monthly uptick to 22%, the best levels seen in the last six months of data.In the US, the data docket is pretty sparse today, instead investors will be prepping for Tuesday’s employment cost index for Q4 ‘22, Wednesday bring the critical FOMC decision and press conference, Thursday sess ISM manufacturing data and the we is rounded out with a pivotal Non Farm payrolls release.Markets-wise, European bourses have opened with a softer tone, the FTSE and the EuroStoxx both in the red, following from a tepid session in Assia, US futures are also pointing south with losses of just under 1%. Spanish CPI released this morning has done little to help the retreat in risk sentiment with a hotter print, a concern for European investors as they mull tiger for longer ECB action and rhetoric. US 10yr yields remain steady around 3.5%, with Dollar marginally softer on the session but still rotating around the 102 handle, Crude has leaked lower overnight trading sub  $80, while Gold remains bid above 1900.Overnight News of NoteStocks Mixed In Choppy Trading With China, Fed In LimelightOil Swings As Traders Track China’s Return And Mideast StrikeChina Stocks Flirt With Bull Market On Return From HolidaysChina Central Bank To Roll Over Lending Tools To Spur GrowthChina Vows To Boost Consumption To Power Economic RecoveryChina Economy Shows Muted Improvement During Holiday PeriodBoJ Kuroda: Possible To Hit Stable Inflation With Continued EasingKey Panel Urges BoJ To Make 2% Inflation Target Long-Term GoalMcCarthy And Biden To Discuss Debt Ceiling On WednesdayScholz Doubles Down On Refusal Of Fighter Jets For UkraineSpain’s Biggest Banks Prepare To Challenge Windfall TaxUK Business Confidence Bounces Back But Interest Rates Will RiseUS Dollar Cautiously Firm Ahead Of Busy Central Bank WeekHedge Funds Boost Treasury Shorts To Record On Doubts Over RallyPension Funds In Historic Surplus Eye $1 Trillion Of Bond-BuyingStocks Poised To Hit New Lows This Year, Survey Of Investors Shows(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)EURUSD 1.0950, 1.07USDJPY 131.40 130.00AUDUSD .7050CFTC Data ( Source Reuters)USD net spec short in the Jan 18-24 period; $IDX -0.46%EUR$ +0.86% in period, specs buy 7,365 contract long now +134,349$JPY +1.56% in period yen short cut by 1,326 contracts now -21,635GBP$ +0.44$ in period, short reduced by 763 contracts to -23,934CAD specs -3,453 contracts now -30,712; AUD specs +449 contract now -33,171BTC +7.45%, spec short increased by 810 contracts now -1,437Next week's data likely mooted by Fed, ECB, BoE meets Feb 1-2 after period closesTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4000 - 4065 Target Hit, New Pattern DevelopingPrimary support is 3935Primary objective is 4138Below 3920 opens 389020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0820Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2340Primary support  is 1.2180Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2150  opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7060Primary support is .6950Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22900Primary support 21400Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-january-30-2023"
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USDCAD, H4 | Potential reversal off a key support

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleTitle USDCAD, H4 | Potential reversal off a key supportTypeBullish ReversalPreference:We are seeing price rebound off the round number level and key support of 1.33. There is a chance price might reverse from here to climb toward the previous swing high and resistance level at 1.34

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/title-usdcad-h4-or-potential-reversal-off-a-key-support"
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Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Rise is Still Ahead

Bitcoin is pulling back from the level of 22500, therefore the bulls keep on pushing the coin till the resistance level of 25000. The asset is likely to head up and possibly retest the level of 22500 soon. So, let’s observe what will happen this week.American stock index S&P 500 has touched a very important weekly downtrend. Last week the index was below this downtrend. Now, the asset’s price is trying to pull back and drop. However, it would be wise to check the candlestick formations to figure out the asset’s moves. The index might also break the downtrend and jump.Oil has pulled from the broken downtrend and the horizontal level of 86.00. Oil might potentially jump and hit the level of 100 next.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/bitcoin-forecast-potential-rise-is-still-ahead"
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AUDUSD. H4 | bullish opportunity

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analystAUDUSD, H4 | Potential to swing high TypeBullish ReversalPreference:We're seeing price test a key overlap support at 0.70624. There's a chance price might reverse from here to push prices all the way down to 1st resistance at 0.71322. The 1st support at 0.68722.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-h4-or-bullish-opportunity"
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Self-assessment tax returns: what you need to know about getting your tax bill right

Understanding how self assessment works can help you ensure you pay the right amount of tax, as well as avoid penalties for missing the deadline.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/tax/income-tax/605569/self-assessment-tax-return-deadline
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Renting a slice of heaven on Moorea

Chris Carter heads to French Polynesia in search of his own private paradise

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/spending-it/travel-and-holidays/605664/renting-a-slice-of-heaven
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Preview of the Fed Meeting: Finding a Balance is a Tough Task

Last year the Fed pursued the most aggressive monetary policy in many years, but in December 2022, officials began laying the groundwork for reducing the pace of tightening to standard 25 bp hike. There are signs that the US expansion is losing momentum while risks of sharper inflation easing gradually build up which contribute to an increasingly dovish market bias regarding the Fed actions in 2023, including rate cuts.After raising fed funds rate by a total of 4.25% in 2022, which consisted of a series of 75bp and 50bp hikes, the Fed hinted in December that the tightening episode may be coming to an end. The market in response revised the peak Fed rate from 5% to 4.75%. While inflation is still well above its 2% target and unemployment near historic lows, evidence is accumulating at the Fed that policy transmission (i.e., effects of monetary tightening) is becoming more significant and therefore the risks of policy overshooting are rising. This can be seen primarily in the real estate market, where mortgage rates reacted quite quickly, limiting mortgage demand, and thereby putting pressure on prices:As a result, rental rates began to creep down, albeit with some delay. This delayed effect is expected to be fully felt by mid-2023, which creates risks of a faster than expected decline in the Core PCE index, the main inflation metric for the Fed. Against the backdrop of these fears, the "sensitivity" of market participants to a potential error in the Fed's policy has increased, and asset prices may be inclined to overreact even to slightly hawkish policy hints. An excessively dovish line, in turn, can also turn into trouble - the market may perceive this as an imminent transition to lower rates, which in turn may cause unwanted easing of credit conditions, which will only further spin the inflation flywheel.The economic data for the US, published on Friday, did not contain big surprises, Core PCE in December rose by 4.4% (in line with the forecast), consumer spending decreased in monthly terms slightly more than expected - by 0.2%. The dollar index continues to move in a narrowing triangle, trying to find a balance near the level of 102:It is clear that the US currency will likely pick direction after the Fed meeting, given that the sloping triangle in the bearish trend is a breakout figure, a bottom-up breakdown of the level of 101.50 is more likely to mean that the next market target is a round level of 100 points.The data shows that the EURUSD's six-hour reaction to last year's decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) caused a movement within +/- 0.7%. And the currency options market prices in a 90-pip range for the EURUSD pair over the period covering the Fed and ECB meetings next week.The decision of the Bank of Canada to stop the tightening cycle at the level of 4.50% made an interesting impression on the dollar market - the US currency was also sold based on the fact that global central banks tend to synchronize their policy, that is, as a signal that the Fed might be preparing to complete the tightening.This suggests that the FOMC meeting may be more interesting for EURUSD than the market currently expects. The base case assumes that EURUSD continues to trade around 1.08/1.09 ahead of the FOMC meeting. Any suggestion that the Fed has all but stopped the tightening could see the EURUSD move to 1.10. However, the signal from the Fed that the potential for a 50 bp rate change persists, will most likely send the EURUSD to the 1.07 level.More broadly, EURUSD is likely to continue rising this year – possibly to 1.15 in the second quarter – this will be a time when US inflation reports will likely contain more downside surprises and China’s “restart” will be a tailwind for cyclical currencies, including the Euro.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/preview-of-the-fed-meeting-finding-a-balance-is-a-tough-task"
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The High Income Child Benefit Charge - is it the most illogical, unfair and unnecessary tax?

We may not like taxes, but this one is blatantly unfair, penalises middle income earners and adds to the gender pensions gap, says Kalpana Fitzpatrick.

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605663/high-income-child-benefit-charge-tax
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Which house-price index is the best?

Britain is obsessed with house prices, and we have at least four house-price indices to choose from to measure the rate of increase in the value of our properties. But how do they differ, and which is the best?

from Moneyweek RSS Feed https://moneyweek.com/3270/which-house-price-index-is-the-best-60003
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Market Spotlight: Tesla & US Core PCE

Risk Rallies on GDP Beat – PCE Up NextOn the back of better-than-forecast advanced Q4 GDP yesterday, traders are now looking to today’s US core PCE data to provide the final insight ahead of the FOMC next week. Given that the PCE data is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, over CPI, the data is always a key release for traders to monitor. With the market now looking to anticipate future Fed action, this month’s result will be even more closely watched.Downside Data RisksAt this point, a .25% hike looks to be a done deal with today’s data unlikely to show any surprise upside. Indeed, on the back of the recent declines in inflation we’ve seen, risks are skewed to the downside and should we see any print below market forecasts this will likely see risk assets firmly higher into the weekend with USD likely to come off.Tesla In FocusIn the US, stocks have been boosted on the back of yesterday’s GDP data, shrugging off disappointing results from Microsoft and Intel over the week. Instead, record profits from Tesla and the accompanying spike in its share price have become more important to the lower Fed rates narrative. With this in mind, Tesla stock looks well positioned to move higher should today’s data confirm a further slowdown in PCE.Technical ViewsTESLAThe rally off the lows has seen Tesla shares breaking above the bear channel from last year’s highs. Price is now fast approaching a test of the 170.22 level. This will be the first major resistance the current rally has encountered. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher near-term with 207.71 the next level to watch above this.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/market-spotlight-tesla-and-us-core-pce"
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