Covid-19 vaccines helped these stocks take off, but what’s next for these companies?

Dominic Frisby explores how the top vaccine stocks are doing as booster take-up remains at a low

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Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500 & Nasdaq

Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500 & NasdaqTo access today's actionable analysis click here!

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Bank of England raises interest rate to 4%

The Bank of England raised rates by 0.5%, marking the base rate’s 10th consecutive increase.

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AUDUSD potential to Bullish Continuation

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential to Bullish Continuation TypeBullish Continuation Preference:We are seeing the price break the 1st resistance level. Looking for a buy entry at slightly below the resistance at 0.71453, take profit at 0.7282 which is the previous swing high.

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What to do with old £20 notes – how to exchange old notes for new ones

Old paper £20 and £50 notes are no longer legal tender. We explain what to do with your old banknotes and where to exchange them.

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Persistent EU Inflation Boosts Odds of a Moderately Hawkish ECB on Thursday

The Fed meeting in December, the Minutes of the meeting, incoming January US soft and hard data - all of them indicate that the Fed may deliver the penultimate rate hike today and implicitly announce the end of the tightening cycle at the next meeting. However, core inflation in the US is still high and the labor market remains surprisingly resilient, so there is little sense for the Fed to materially revise its hawkish stance. The idea of another Powell protest today against the dovish market expectations that have been building since the beginning of the year is holding back a USD sell-off and curbs equity optimism. For the last two weeks the dollar has shown stability (relative to performance in the first two weeks of January), fluctuations of the DXY index were limited in the range of 101.50-102.50. First of all, this could be a consequence of a defensive positioning in risk assets in response to a possible fork in the course of the Fed's policy. The key benchmark of the US stock market, the S&P 500 fell to 3900 points in mid-January and then failed to move much above 4000 points. The second key asset class, bonds, has also seen consolidation, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 3.5%. Signals of a slowdown in the US economy have created a situation where, in the event of a consistently hawkish stance by the Fed, market fears of a Fed policy error will increase, which may bring forward a downturn and even recession in the economy, during which demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset should increase significantly. Together, this led to the formation of the range in the dollar in the second half of January.Today the dollar is losing ground; this is largely due to the dovish surprise in the second most important report on the US labor market - the ADP report. The agency estimated that job growth slowed to 106K in January from 273K in December. It was expected that the growth will be 178K. The situation in the US industrial sector in January was clarified by PMI from ISM. The weak reading (47 points with a forecast of 48 points) is likely to accelerate the movement of the dollar index towards the main support level (101.50), but the FOMC will determine the medium-term dynamics.The European currency was supported today by the data on inflation in the Eurozone. Core inflation rose to 5.2% in January, headline inflation slowed down from 9% to 8.5%. Since the ECB, like other central banks, is predominantly targeting core inflation, a signal of core inflation persistence in January adds to the chances of a moderately hawkish stance on Thursday, which makes the EURUSD rally more likely, especially if the Fed opts for a maximally balanced stance.Activity indices in the Eurozone from S&P Global for January (final estimate) were neutral (slight deviations towards more positive values in France and Italy, no changes in Germany).

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NS&I brings back one-year fixed bonds with highest rates since 2010

NS&I’s one-year fixed bonds are back on sale after being pulled off the market in 2019 - but is the rate any good?

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February’s Premium Bond millionaire winners revealed – how to check if you’ve won

This month will see the 500th premium bond holder celebrate winning the million pound jackpot in this month’s draw. We explain how to check if you’re one of the lucky winners this month.

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Oil Majors: Pause or Beginning Of The End?

Oil Majors See Record Profits in 2022The explosion in profits for energy companies over 2022 was one of the key headlines in the equities space. In 2022 overall, leading US energy companies Exxon and chevron made a combined $100 billion in profit, recording their best years on record. Against this backdrop, both companies saw their stock price surging higher with Exxon hitting around +80% at its peak and Chevron hitting around +60% at its peak.What Goes Up…The exorbitant rise in oil and gas prices over the first half of the year was largely responsible for these ballooning profits. With oil and gas having rallied around 70% and 165% respectively over H1 2022, Exxon and Chevron were well positioned to benefit having both shunned the move towards greener energy being championed by their European rivals Shell and BP.Must Come Down…However, with energy prices having collapsed in recent months and shares in both Exxon and Chevron having stalled, the big question now is whether the top is in for these two stocks or if this is simply a pause before they take another leg higher. A look at both companies recently reported Q4 earnings might help shed some light on this.Q4 Revenues FallDespite recording record profits for the year as whole, both Exxon and Chevron saw revenues fall short of forecasts in Q4. Along with undershooting forecast, both companies reported revenues were down sharply on the prior quarter, continuing the trend of declining quarterly profits from their peak in Q2 2022. In light of the ongoing declines seen in energy prices, it seems reasonable to expect that Q1 2023 results will be weaker still.Uncertain OutlooksBoth companies noted considerable uncertainty in the outlook. Recessionary risks in the US and Europe as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict have each been cited as major variables in the outlook. The EIA itself has forecast oil demand to dip sharply in 2023, in line with what we’ve heard from OPEC. In response to this, Exxon and Chevron have said that they take operational decisions accordingly, e.g being more careful about increasing production so as not to drive prices lower.A Word on Upside RisksDespite the downside risks for oil prices, however, it is worth noting that each of the variable mentioned hold upside risk. If a recession is avoided in the US, and in Europe, and if the Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end this year, oil prices might well spike higher on fa fresh surge in demand. Additionally, with China having reopened its borders, the prospect of a significant pickup in activity and demand there also has the potential to drive oil prices higher. With this in mind, it might be a little too early to call for a proper reversal lower in these stocks until we see a technical trend reversal in place.Technical ViewsExxonFollowing a brief correction earlier this week, Exxon shares are now trading back above the 114.96 level. With price underpinned by the rising channel lows, the focus remains on further upside while above this level, in line with bullish momentum studies signals. Only a break of 104.40 will negate the near-term bullish view.

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Fuel prices fall slightly, but forecourt prices still remain high

Fuel prices have dipped, but how much will you pay now and how can you save on the costs of driving?

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Nine shared banking hubs revealed as more branches close

Locations for nine new banking hubs have been revealed, which aim to plug the gaps left by bank branch closures. We explain who can use them, and if there’s one near you.

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Top 10 up-and-coming property areas in the UK

New research shows rural areas make for the best investment, while London boroughs dominated the bottom 10

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EURUSD consolidates ahead of the FOMC meeting

The dollar index started the week on a rather pessimistic note, trading below 102 points, suggesting that the market is setting low expectations for a hawkish Fed outcome on Wednesday. A moderate correction is taking place in the risk assets as a reaction to a possible turbulence due to a series of central bank meetings this week. Major European indexes and futures for US indices are in the red on Monday. The price of gold, which has been a pretty good proxy for expectations for the Fed's interest rate path since the beginning of this year, is consolidating around $1925, also indicating relatively mild expectations for a dovish Fed surprise.The dollar could come under pressure, with EUR/USD above 1.10 if the Fed makes a big surprise, in particular by saying that any additional rate hike after 25bp this week will depend on incoming data. However, the chance of such an outcome is low. It is more likely that the Fed will reject market expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in the second half of the year, in which case the dollar will move into a short-term rally.Potential EURUSD reaction following FOMC decisionIn addition to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, there are two important reports on the US economy on the US data calendar. First, the Fourth Quarter Labor Cost Indicator (ECI) is one of the Fed's preferred measures of price pressure in labor markets. This indicator rose to 1.4% in the first quarter of last year from the previous three months, but is expected to fall to 1.1% in the fourth quarter from 1.2% in the third. Any surprise upside here could see expectations shift towards a more hawkish FOMC decision. And on Friday, the US jobs report for January comes out.Clearly this is a busy week for FX and perhaps most of the volatility will come from the results of Wednesday night's FOMC meeting and the ECB/BoE decision on Thursday. The opening of Chinese markets after the public holiday of the Lunar New Year should also add some volatility to Asian markets price action. Investors are very optimistic about China reopening its doors and will need more data this week to see if the potential recovery momentum in the Chinese economy remains. Tomorrow we will see the Chinese PMI for January, where a significant rebound is expected to support the bullish positions on Chinese risk assets.The main view of the ECB meeting is that the central bank will remain hawkish and resist the 2024 easing. This should see EURUSD's 2-year swap differentials continue to narrow and be positive for EUR/USD. The narrowing of the swap differential is the main market factor in the EUR/USD appreciation.Before the ECB meeting on Thursday, euro zone economic confidence figures for January will be published today. They are expected to improve slightly, but any upside surprises will fuel the hypothesis of lower energy consumption and strong fiscal stimulus to ensure recessions, if any, are mild.A 50 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England could provide moderate support for the pound sterling. The base scenario for a 50 basis point upswing is not fully priced in by the market. And with wage pressures lingering and the impact of a low base not leading to a significant decline in the consumer price index until the second quarter, it looks like it's too early for the Bank of England to relax on the predictability of inflation. Depending on the state of the dollar after the FOMC meeting, by the end of the week GBP/USD may rise to 1.2500.

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Daily Market Outlook, January 31, 2023

Daily Market Outlook, January 31, 2023 Nasdaq Back At Five Week Lows, Global Stocks Still Set For First Jan Gains Since 2020Jitters on Wall Street ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference saw investors paring risk positions, with Tesla giving back over 6% of recent gains, this led to the Nasdaq retreating by over 2% to close at five week lows. Monday’s trade got off to subdued start as Spanish inflation data came in hotter than expected, after a similar print in Australia, markets mulled a return to inflation concerns, however, this mornings French inflation print came in on the soft side, which has prompted US equity futures to turn positive on the session, those gains are proving hard to maintain as of the time of writing. Asian equities remain in the red by circa 1% but are off the worst levels from the overnight session.European investors will eye flash Eurozone GDP data this morning, sentiment reads for the period imply positive inputs will provide a more upbeat number than the weaker Q4 data. In the UK political pressure mounts once again as Chancellor Hunt’s recovery plan appears to have done little to reassure markets, with the IMF confirming that the UK is the only G7 economy to receive a downgrade to their 2023 economic outlook, the IMF predicts the UK economy is set to decline by 0.6% in 2023 a stark contrast to the prior growth expectations of 0.3%In the US, the employment cost index is due late today, a favourite read for Fed officials in gauging labour market cost pressures, this will provide a final indication of inflation pressures ahead of Wednesday’s key central bank decision. Market watchers have pencilled in a rise of 1.2% in line with the Q3 print, this will confirm Fed concerns that the labour market remains too tight to take their foot of the gas with respect to the current rate cycle.Markets-wise, European bourses, FTSE & EuroStoxx are opening flat to marginally down, early indications were for weaker opens, however, the French CPI miss has provided some modest support as investors start to pair risk positions ahead of the trifecta of central bank decisions ahead with the FOMC, ECB & BoE all on deck in the next 72hrs. The dollar has caught a modest bid confirming the retreat in risk appetite to trade above the 102 handle, with the Euro looking to test 1.08, month end today FX volatility likely to be seen around London fixing at 4pm GMT as month end flows kick in (see Barclays Month End signal note below). As well as the central bank risk ahead, investors will also receive a number of significant earnings reports in the coming days with Meta, Apple, Amazon and Google all set to report, buckle up for a busy second half of the week which will be capped off on Friday with the all important Non Farm Payroll release!Overnight News of NoteAsian Stocks Slip As Investors Eye Looming Central Bank Rate DecisionsNasdaq 100 Suffers Its Biggest Drop In A MonthGold Edges Higher, On Track For Third Straight Monthly GainIMF Raises World Economic Outlook For The First Time In A YearChina Economic Activity Swings Back To Growth In JanuaryChina ForMin Seeks Stronger Economic Ties With Saudi ArabiaJapan Dec Factory Output Inches Down, Retail Sales Beat EstimatesJapan FinMin: Too Early To Consider Reviewing Gov't-BoJ StatementAustralia Dec Retail Sales Post First Fall Of 2022; Yields DropUS Treasury Increases Borrowing Estimate For The First QuarterWhite House To End Covid-19 Emergency Declarations On May 11IMF Slashes UK Growth Outlook, Adding Pressure On Chancellor HuntIsrael Drone Responsible For Strike On Iranian Weapons FacilityDollar Set For Fourth Monthly Drop As Fed Meeting LoomsYen’s Rally Comes Unstuck As Traders Eye Hawkish Fed OutcomeOil Set For Monthly Drop As Chinese Demand, Fed Meeting In FocusWhirlpool Sees Improving Profitability As Material Costs EaseWashington Halts Licences For US Companies To Export To HuaweiSamsung Electronics Q4 Profit Plummets Amid Global Chip Downturn(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)EURUSD 1.0875, 1.0855, 1.0900USDJPY 130.00, 129.00 127.50AUDUSD .7075USDCNY 6.8000CFTC Data As of 27/01 ( Source Reuters)USD net spec short in the Jan 18-24 period; $IDX -0.46%EUR$ +0.86% in period, specs buy 7,365 contract long now +134,349$JPY +1.56% in period yen short cut by 1,326 contracts now -21,635GBP$ +0.44$ in period, short reduced by 763 contracts to -23,934CAD specs -3,453 contracts now -30,712; AUD specs +449 contract now -33,171BTC +7.45%, spec short increased by 810 contracts now -1,437Next week's data likely mooted by Fed, ECB, BoE meets Feb 1-2 after period closesTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4040Primary support is 4000Primary objective is 4138Below 3990 opens 395020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0820Primary support  is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2320Primary support  is 1.2180Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2150  opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6990Primary support is .6940Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bearish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22100Primary support 21400Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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