After slumping 42% last year, what's next for Scottish Mortgage?

After a spectacular couple of decades, the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust fell by 42% last year. We take a look at the trust's performance and discuss what's next for the business.

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FOMO Friday: World Stocks Rally Following Central Bank Updates

MSCI Makes New GroundIt’s been a busy week for markets across the board this with plenty of volatility to enjoy and with the NFP still to come, there might still be more volatility yet. With plenty of action in US earnings as well as the February FOMC, BOE and ECB meetings, we’ve seen a number of big moves. Chatting with traders ahead of the weekend, however it seems the big move that most are focused on ahead of the weekend is the more than 14% rally in the MSCI world shares index. So, let’s take a look at what caused the move and, as ever, if you caught it? Well done! If not? There’s always next week.What Caused the Move?Further Fed PivotThere have been two big drivers behind the move higher in the world shares index this week. The first is the developments we’ve seen in the central bank landscape. The Fed pivoted on rates again this month, opting for a lower .25% hike. Along with this, the bank sounded more constructive on inflation, noting that the disinflation process had started, with traders now eyeing just a further .5% worth of hikes before tightening comes to an end. This marks a sharp change from the aggressive hawkishness we saw over most of last year and helped lift stocks across the board.Traders Eye End to BOE & ECB TighteningThe BOE and ECB followed on Thursday and helped drive the stock rally higher still. While both banks hiked by a further .5%, both EUR and GBP fell as traders sensed that tightening is coming to an end. The ECB has signalled a further .5% hike in March, after which point it will decide any further adjustments on a data dependant basis. However, with both the ECB and the BOE acknowledging the declines in inflation, stocks rallied as traders judge that the coming months will bring an end to monetary tightening.Upside RisksLooking ahead, the near-term outlook is favourable for stocks. A further cooling of inflation and stronger signals that monetary tightening is coming to an end should help keep asset prices underpinned. While recessionary risks are noted, resilience in US data suggest the potential that the US might still avoid a recession, in which case stocks would receive a further lift.Technical ViewsMSCI World Shares IndexThe breakout above the 525.21 level is strongly bullish for the index. With the rally currently seeing price above the 563.77 level, focus is on a continuation higher towards the 595.86 level next. This will be the next major test for bulls. While the market holds above the 525.21 level, the outlook remains bullish near-term.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/fomo-friday-world-stocks-rally-following-central-bank-updates"
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NZDUSD Potential to Recent Swing High

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleNZDUSD, H4 | Potential to recent swing high TypeBullish Continuation Preference:Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NZDUSD is slightly bullish, there is an ascending trendline . Looking for buy entry at 0.64266 which is the overlap support.

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Dollar Rebounds after Fed, ECB Meeting but the Rally may Prove Fleeting

The Fed hiked the interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday and hinted that there will be another hike, after which it will likely be done with tightening. Despite worries about inflation, Powell said at the press conference that the committee believes it is necessary to slow down the pace of monetary tightening. Market indicators of the Fed's terminal rate changed slightly (also remaining nearly 5%), but judging by the performance of risk assets, the cryptocurrency market and the dollar, investors increased their expectations of the Fed's policy easing cycle in the second half of the year. For example, the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds fell about 15 basis points to 3.35%, the S&P 500 soared from 4050 to 4150 points, and the dollar fell below 101 points after which it rebounded rapidly and almost erased the fall that was triggered by the FOMC update.Today, the ECB also held a meeting at which the regulator announced a rate increase by 50 basis points. Thus, the ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.5% and the refinancing rate to 3%. But there was something else too: the ECB announced in advance another rate hike next month, also by 50 basis points, opening the door for either a pause or a slower rate hike after March. The ECB also reaffirmed the December decision that the QE rate will decrease by an average of 15 billion euros per month from the beginning of March to the end of June 2023.It took the ECB a while, but it seems to have learned how to raise interest rates. And as long as core inflation remains consistently high and core inflation forecasts remain above 2%, the ECB will continue to tighten the monetary policy. The growing likelihood that a recession will be avoided in the first half of the year also gives companies more room to increase their pricing power, thus strengthening the basis for elevated inflationary expectations.The famous fiscal stimulus that eased recession fears is an additional concern for the ECB, as it could turn a supply-side inflation problem into demand-side inflation. These are two factors that could increase inflationary pressures in the euro area, albeit at a lower level than previously expected. As a result, the ECB is likely not only to continue to raise rates until late spring, but to keep interest rates high for longer than the period that the markets are pricing in.EURUSD rose above 1.10 today, but ran into strong resistance, which led to a collapse below 1.09, nevertheless, it is risky to sell the euro now - the ECB appears to have an advantage in tightening, the risks of a recession in the global economy (which could spur a safe haven USD demand) have slightly decreased. Thus, new highs for EURUSD in the next month are not ruled out, however, a correction from the round level was necessary. The support area for the pair resides in the range of 1.08-1.0875 (the lower limit of the bullish channel):

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/dollar-rebounds-after-fed-ecb-meeting-but-the-rally-may-prove-fleeting"
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Covid-19 vaccines helped these stocks take off, but what’s next for these companies?

Dominic Frisby explores how the top vaccine stocks are doing as booster take-up remains at a low

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Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500 & Nasdaq

Daily Technical Trade Set Ups for Emini SP500 & NasdaqTo access today's actionable analysis click here!

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Bank of England raises interest rate to 4%

The Bank of England raised rates by 0.5%, marking the base rate’s 10th consecutive increase.

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AUDUSD potential to Bullish Continuation

To discuss this trading idea, head over to Tickmill Traders Club where you can get direct access to our team of world-class analysts.TitleAUDUSD, H4 | Potential to Bullish Continuation TypeBullish Continuation Preference:We are seeing the price break the 1st resistance level. Looking for a buy entry at slightly below the resistance at 0.71453, take profit at 0.7282 which is the previous swing high.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/audusd-potential-to-bullish-continuatio"
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What to do with old £20 notes – how to exchange old notes for new ones

Old paper £20 and £50 notes are no longer legal tender. We explain what to do with your old banknotes and where to exchange them.

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Persistent EU Inflation Boosts Odds of a Moderately Hawkish ECB on Thursday

The Fed meeting in December, the Minutes of the meeting, incoming January US soft and hard data - all of them indicate that the Fed may deliver the penultimate rate hike today and implicitly announce the end of the tightening cycle at the next meeting. However, core inflation in the US is still high and the labor market remains surprisingly resilient, so there is little sense for the Fed to materially revise its hawkish stance. The idea of another Powell protest today against the dovish market expectations that have been building since the beginning of the year is holding back a USD sell-off and curbs equity optimism. For the last two weeks the dollar has shown stability (relative to performance in the first two weeks of January), fluctuations of the DXY index were limited in the range of 101.50-102.50. First of all, this could be a consequence of a defensive positioning in risk assets in response to a possible fork in the course of the Fed's policy. The key benchmark of the US stock market, the S&P 500 fell to 3900 points in mid-January and then failed to move much above 4000 points. The second key asset class, bonds, has also seen consolidation, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 3.5%. Signals of a slowdown in the US economy have created a situation where, in the event of a consistently hawkish stance by the Fed, market fears of a Fed policy error will increase, which may bring forward a downturn and even recession in the economy, during which demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset should increase significantly. Together, this led to the formation of the range in the dollar in the second half of January.Today the dollar is losing ground; this is largely due to the dovish surprise in the second most important report on the US labor market - the ADP report. The agency estimated that job growth slowed to 106K in January from 273K in December. It was expected that the growth will be 178K. The situation in the US industrial sector in January was clarified by PMI from ISM. The weak reading (47 points with a forecast of 48 points) is likely to accelerate the movement of the dollar index towards the main support level (101.50), but the FOMC will determine the medium-term dynamics.The European currency was supported today by the data on inflation in the Eurozone. Core inflation rose to 5.2% in January, headline inflation slowed down from 9% to 8.5%. Since the ECB, like other central banks, is predominantly targeting core inflation, a signal of core inflation persistence in January adds to the chances of a moderately hawkish stance on Thursday, which makes the EURUSD rally more likely, especially if the Fed opts for a maximally balanced stance.Activity indices in the Eurozone from S&P Global for January (final estimate) were neutral (slight deviations towards more positive values in France and Italy, no changes in Germany).

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/persistent-eu-inflation-boosts-odds-of-a-moderately-hawkish-ecb-on-thursday"
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NS&I brings back one-year fixed bonds with highest rates since 2010

NS&I’s one-year fixed bonds are back on sale after being pulled off the market in 2019 - but is the rate any good?

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February’s Premium Bond millionaire winners revealed – how to check if you’ve won

This month will see the 500th premium bond holder celebrate winning the million pound jackpot in this month’s draw. We explain how to check if you’re one of the lucky winners this month.

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Oil Majors: Pause or Beginning Of The End?

Oil Majors See Record Profits in 2022The explosion in profits for energy companies over 2022 was one of the key headlines in the equities space. In 2022 overall, leading US energy companies Exxon and chevron made a combined $100 billion in profit, recording their best years on record. Against this backdrop, both companies saw their stock price surging higher with Exxon hitting around +80% at its peak and Chevron hitting around +60% at its peak.What Goes Up…The exorbitant rise in oil and gas prices over the first half of the year was largely responsible for these ballooning profits. With oil and gas having rallied around 70% and 165% respectively over H1 2022, Exxon and Chevron were well positioned to benefit having both shunned the move towards greener energy being championed by their European rivals Shell and BP.Must Come Down…However, with energy prices having collapsed in recent months and shares in both Exxon and Chevron having stalled, the big question now is whether the top is in for these two stocks or if this is simply a pause before they take another leg higher. A look at both companies recently reported Q4 earnings might help shed some light on this.Q4 Revenues FallDespite recording record profits for the year as whole, both Exxon and Chevron saw revenues fall short of forecasts in Q4. Along with undershooting forecast, both companies reported revenues were down sharply on the prior quarter, continuing the trend of declining quarterly profits from their peak in Q2 2022. In light of the ongoing declines seen in energy prices, it seems reasonable to expect that Q1 2023 results will be weaker still.Uncertain OutlooksBoth companies noted considerable uncertainty in the outlook. Recessionary risks in the US and Europe as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict have each been cited as major variables in the outlook. The EIA itself has forecast oil demand to dip sharply in 2023, in line with what we’ve heard from OPEC. In response to this, Exxon and Chevron have said that they take operational decisions accordingly, e.g being more careful about increasing production so as not to drive prices lower.A Word on Upside RisksDespite the downside risks for oil prices, however, it is worth noting that each of the variable mentioned hold upside risk. If a recession is avoided in the US, and in Europe, and if the Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end this year, oil prices might well spike higher on fa fresh surge in demand. Additionally, with China having reopened its borders, the prospect of a significant pickup in activity and demand there also has the potential to drive oil prices higher. With this in mind, it might be a little too early to call for a proper reversal lower in these stocks until we see a technical trend reversal in place.Technical ViewsExxonFollowing a brief correction earlier this week, Exxon shares are now trading back above the 114.96 level. With price underpinned by the rising channel lows, the focus remains on further upside while above this level, in line with bullish momentum studies signals. Only a break of 104.40 will negate the near-term bullish view.

from Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog https://www.tickmill.com/blog/oil-majors-pause-or-beginning-of-the-end"
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Fuel prices fall slightly, but forecourt prices still remain high

Fuel prices have dipped, but how much will you pay now and how can you save on the costs of driving?

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